Seasonal Garden Catch Rate Estimates
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Transcript of Seasonal Garden Catch Rate Estimates
Read Me/ Useful Links
Note: see tabs at bottom for data sheets
The catch rate estimates are per Attraction. So when using cheeses like Gouda or Brie, you should also take into account the trap setup's attraction bonus.
These estimates are based on the latest MH V2 "Luck" model. Contributors: Jakob Tomse, Seth Katz, Sam Siebert, Paul Humphreys, Aaron Milstein.
CR = (P*E +(L*E)^2)/(P*E +M)
Where CR=Predicted Catch Rate per Attraction, P=Trap Power, E= Effectiveness Modifier, L=Luck and M= Estimated Mouse Power
Mouse Power and Effectiveness Modifiers were provided by Paul Humphreys (Furoma.com) and are based on mice difficulty ratings given for mice under the mice tab, for various trap setups.
Note: there is no confirmation at this time that the V2 Luck model will accurately predict catch rates in the Seasonal Garden.
Actual early sample results suggest that the model may under-estimate catch rates for certain mice. (See "Actuals" tab)
General Notes
- Mice are generally ranked by difficulty for each season. The "AMP" column shows how much the tower amplifier will go up if you catch that mouse.
- The "Est % Freq" column gives the estimated % of the time you should see that mouse, based on sampled hunter profile catches and misses.
Links:
- Sheet tabs are organized by base. To select a trap setup, look at the season you are in and review the predicted catch rates for the traps for that season. Note that three seasons have an extra trap power type that benefit from an estimated 200% effectiveness multiplier (Spring-Physical, Fall-Shadow and Winter-Hydro). Tactical traps will work for all seasons but are the second best choice except for Summer.
1. "Mousehunt Data V.3.0" (Nathan Yang) - Provides actual hunt log summaries for Seasonal Garden and Tower, as well as other locations.
http://tinyurl.com/MHDataV3
2. "Seasonal Garden/Tower Trap Effectiveness Table" - Gives individual Mice Difficulties based on Trap Power for Various Trap setups and Tower Amplifier levels
http://bit.ly/bnPC9e
3. MH Wiki - Seasonal Garden
http://tinyurl.com/3ystb3r
Bill Comeau Last Updated 9/11/2010 -----------------------------------------------------------Scroll Down for Update Log
Update Log:
Sept 11: Added Base Comparison Sheet
Sep 6: Added Spellbook base CRE's.
Aug 30: Added % Frequency column - shows what % of total attractions each mouse is in a season, based on sampled hunter profiles of attractions (catches + misses).
Aug 27: Fall mice results added to Actuals tab. Model appears to fit the actual results sample fairly well.
Aug 25: Autumn mice released noon EDT, added Bottomless Grave trap (BG)
Aug 24: Added Actual reported results for Summer Mice. The V2 model appears to be under-estimating catch rates for the strongest 3-4 mice, although this is still preliminary.
Aug 17: Tactical changed to 100% Fall, Winter
Bruticle Winter mouse added, prel. estimate of mouse power being used.Scarecrow has been switched to Fall, from Summer
New Trap : ZFM - Zugzwang's First Move Tactical trap - 3660, 15%P, 0%A, 17 Luck, Very Fresh
New Trap : HB - Heat Bath Hydro Trap: 4000 Power, 5%P, 0%A, 14 Luck, Stale
Aug 13 Setup Notes:
- Aug 16 4:45pm EDT. I have added a tab with other common traps, plus made corrections to Alternate trap formula (Beta was using wrong effectiveness multiplier sometimes)
- I have included the "New ZLT" trap although it is not known when it will be released.
- I have assumed that the new ZLT trap that was shown on FBF did not have its shield activated, making its luck 17 before adding base and shield
- I am using the assumed seasons and effectiveness descriptors prepared in my previous "Zugzwang Mice Effectiveness Table" (See Lore and Strategy section thread)
- The model can sometimes provide CR's above 1.0 for weaker mice, these have been capped at .990,since in practice there is always a small chance of missing a catch even with strong traps vs weak mice.
- Assumes no "Tower Amplifier" effect on Catch Rates
- Note that these estimates are preliminary and since this is a new area with new potential features such as seasons, Power Meters and Tower Amplifier, they may not prove to be accurate.
Bill Comeau Alt Est'd A Est Magma Base Catch Rate Estimates - includes Lucky Shield (See tabs at bottom for other setups)
Updated 8/30/2010 Weak Tact Trap Mouse M % -----------------------Tactical-------------------------
Mouse Season to Effect Effect Power P Freq ZFM 2010 HVMT
Derpicorn Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 1000 0 0.11 0.990 0.990 0.990
Hydrophobe Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 1990 0 0.16 0.977 0.990 0.962
Tanglefoot Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 4430 0 0.3 0.751 0.812 0.727
Puddlemancer Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 9940 0 0.35 0.493 0.501 0.468
Spring Familiar Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 10465 0.1 0.03 0.477 0.483 0.453
Vinetail Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 19005 0.1 0.05 0.315 0.307 0.295
Hot Head Sum Tactical 150% 0% 2290 0 0.15 0.990 0.990 0.990
Monarch Sum Tactical 150% 0% 2535 0 0.15 0.990 0.990 0.990
Firefly Sum Tactical 150% 0% 3695 0 0.2 0.901 0.990 0.880
Stinger Sum Tactical 150% 0% 13085 0 0.25 0.486 0.506 0.461
Firebreather Sum Tactical 150% 0% 15525 0 0.2 0.434 0.446 0.411
Summer Mage Sum Tactical 150% 0% 24495 0.1 0.05 0.312 0.312 0.292
Whirleygig Fall Tact,Shdw 100% 200% 2180 0 0.15 0.855 0.928 0.835
Pumpkin Head Fall Tact,Shdw 100% 200% 2395 0 0.2 0.829 0.894 0.809
Scarecrow Fall Tact,Shdw 100% 200% 3170 0 0.23 0.750 0.791 0.727
Harvest Harrier Fall Tact,Shdw 100% 200% 10875 0 0.35 0.383 0.369 0.361
Fall Familiar Fall Tact,Shdw 100% 200% 11460 0.1 0.02 0.369 0.355 0.348
Harvester Fall Tact,Shdw 100% 200% 24495 0.1 0.05 0.205 0.190 0.191
Over-Prepared Wint Tact,Hyd 100% 200% 2275 0 0.12 0.843 0.913 0.823
Penguin Wint Tact,Hyd 100% 200% 2505 0 0.18 0.817 0.878 0.796
Icicle Wint Tact,Hyd 100% 200% 11340 0 0.25 0.372 0.358 0.350
Frostbite Wint Tact,Hyd 100% 200% 14380 0 0.21 0.313 0.297 0.294
Bruticle Wint Tact,Hyd 100% 200% 16649 0 0.19 0.280 0.264 0.262
Winter Mage Wint Tact,Hyd 100% 200% 24495 0.1 0.05 0.205 0.190 0.191
Trap Power 4871 3567 4440
Trap Luck 34 42 33
Magma Base Catch Rate Estimates - includes Lucky Shield (See tabs at bottom for other setups)
-----------------------Tactical------------------------- ------------Physical-------------- --------Shadow------- -----------Hydro---------
GS SnoB CDDB PB CCT CoT Gorgon BG Kraken HB ASG
0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990
0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990
0.769 0.825 0.990 0.990 0.990
0.474 0.468 0.877 0.837 0.822
0.458 0.450 0.855 0.813 0.799
0.291 0.274 0.610 0.553 0.547
0.990 0.990
0.990 0.990
0.970 0.990
0.476 0.481
0.420 0.419
0.294 0.284
0.885 0.965 0.990 0.990 0.960
0.853 0.920 0.990 0.988 0.927
0.755 0.788 0.973 0.897 0.825
0.352 0.325 0.531 0.467 0.394
0.338 0.311 0.513 0.450 0.379
0.181 0.160 0.294 0.253 0.205
0.871 0.945 0.990 0.990 0.990
0.838 0.899 0.990 0.990 0.990
0.341 0.314 0.667 0.644 0.604
0.283 0.257 0.576 0.563 0.525
0.251 0.226 0.523 0.514 0.478
0.181 0.160 0.397 0.396 0.366
3560 2240 5376 3875 4059 3039 2599 1944 3996 4859 4407
39 45 43 42 41 27 24 22 35 31 29
Notes:
Sheet tabs are at bottom of page
Remember - these are only estimates!!
Catch Rates are Per Attraction.
See Read Me/Links and Commentary
Last Updated August 30,2010
Spreadsheet continues below
Scroll Down to Winter Mage
Bill Comeau Tactical Alt Est'd A Molten Shrapnel Base (MSB) Catch Rate Estimates - includes Lucky Shield (see tabs at bottom for other setups)
Updated 9/6/10 Effective Trap Mouse M % -----------------------Tactical-------------------------
Mouse Season Weakness Modifier Effect Power P Freq ZFM 2010
Derpicorn Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 1000 0 0.11 0.990 0.990
Hydrophobe Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 1990 0 0.16 0.953 0.990
Tanglefoot Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 4430 0 0.3 0.736 0.786
Puddlemancer Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 9940 0 0.35 0.486 0.488
Spring Familiar Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 10465 0.1 0.03 0.471 0.471
Vinetail Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 19005 0.1 0.05 0.312 0.301
Hot Head Summ Tactical 150% 0% 2290 0 0.15 0.990 0.990
Monarch Summ Tactical 150% 0% 2535 0 0.15 0.977 0.990
Firefly Summ Tactical 150% 0% 3695 0 0.2 0.876 0.990
Stinger Summ Tactical 150% 0% 13085 0 0.25 0.477 0.490
Firebreather Summ Tactical 150% 0% 15525 0 0.2 0.427 0.433
Summer Mage Summ Tactical 150% 0% 24495 0.1 0.05 0.307 0.304
Whirleygig Fall Tact,Shdw 100% 200% 2180 0 0.15 0.840 0.901
Pumpkin Head Fall Tact,Shdw 100% 200% 2395 0 0.2 0.815 0.869
Scarecrow Fall Tact,Shdw 100% 200% 3170 0 0.23 0.738 0.771
Harvest Harrier Fall Tact,Shdw 100% 200% 10875 0 0.35 0.381 0.363
Fall Familiar Fall Tact,Shdw 100% 200% 11460 0.1 0.02 0.367 0.349
Harvester Fall Tact,Shdw 100% 200% 24495 0.1 0.05 0.205 0.187
Over-Prepared Winter Tact,Hydro 100% 200% 2275 0 0.12 0.829 0.887
Penguin Winter Tact,Hydro 100% 200% 2505 0 0.18 0.803 0.854
Icicle Winter Tact,Hydro 100% 200% 11340 0 0.25 0.370 0.352
Frostbite Winter Tact,Hydro 100% 200% 14380 0 0.21 0.312 0.292
Bruticle Winter Tact,Hydro 100% 200% 16649 0 0.19 0.279 0.260
Winter Mage Winter Tact,Hydro 100% 200% 24495 0.1 0.05 0.205 0.187
Trap Power 5030 3683
Trap Luck 32 40
Molten Shrapnel Base (MSB) Catch Rate Estimates - includes Lucky Shield (see tabs at bottom for other setups)
-----------------------Tactical------------------------- ------------Physical-------------- --------Shadow------- -----------Hydro---------
HVMT GS SnoB CDDB Partybot CCT CoT Gorgon BG Kraken HeatBath
0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990
0.937 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990
0.712 0.747 0.789 0.990 0.990 0.990
0.462 0.464 0.450 0.847 0.803 0.790
0.447 0.448 0.433 0.826 0.780 0.768
0.293 0.286 0.264 0.592 0.533 0.528
0.986 0.990 0.990
0.960 0.990 0.990
0.855 0.933 0.990
0.453 0.463 0.461
0.404 0.409 0.402
0.288 0.287 0.273
0.820 0.862 0.926 0.990 0.968 0.907
0.795 0.831 0.884 0.990 0.941 0.876
0.715 0.737 0.759 0.929 0.856 0.782
0.359 0.347 0.315 0.512 0.450 0.378
0.346 0.334 0.302 0.495 0.435 0.364
0.191 0.179 0.155 0.285 0.245 0.197
0.809 0.848 0.907 0.990 0.990
0.782 0.817 0.864 0.990 0.990
0.348 0.336 0.305 0.644 0.627
0.293 0.280 0.249 0.558 0.549
0.261 0.249 0.219 0.507 0.503
0.191 0.179 0.155 0.386 0.389
4588 3686 2310 5544 4001 4191 3142 2691 2016 4144 5031
31 37 43 41 40 39 25 22 20 33 29
Molten Shrapnel Base (MSB) Catch Rate Estimates - includes Lucky Shield (see tabs at bottom for other setups)
-----------Hydro---------
ASG
0.990
0.990
0.588
0.512
0.467
0.358
4563
27
Bill Comeau Tactical Alt Est'd A Spellbook Base Catch Rate Estimates - includes Lucky Shield (see tabs at bottom for other setups)
Updated 9/6/10 Effective Trap Mouse M % -----------------------Tactical-------------------------
Mouse Season Weakness Modifier Effect Power P Freq ZFM 2010
Derpicorn Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 1000 0 0.11 0.990 0.990
Hydrophobe Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 1990 0 0.16 0.944 0.990
Tanglefoot Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 4430 0 0.3 0.737 0.782
Puddlemancer Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 9940 0 0.35 0.493 0.494
Spring Familiar Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 10465 0.1 0.03 0.478 0.477
Vinetail Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 19005 0.1 0.05 0.319 0.307
Hot Head Summer Tactical 150% 0% 2290 0 0.15 0.988 0.990
Monarch Summer Tactical 150% 0% 2535 0 0.15 0.965 0.990
Firefly Summer Tactical 150% 0% 3695 0 0.2 0.869 0.972
Stinger Summer Tactical 150% 0% 13085 0 0.25 0.483 0.494
Firebreather Summer Tactical 150% 0% 15525 0 0.2 0.433 0.438
Summer Mage Summer Tactical 150% 0% 24495 0.1 0.05 0.314 0.309
Whirleygig Fall Tact,Shdw 100% 200% 2180 0 0.15 0.838 0.893
Pumpkin Head Fall Tact,Shdw 100% 200% 2395 0 0.2 0.815 0.863
Scarecrow Fall Tact,Shdw 100% 200% 3170 0 0.23 0.741 0.770
Harvest Harrier Fall Tact,Shdw 100% 200% 10875 0 0.35 0.390 0.371
Fall Familiar Fall Tact,Shdw 100% 200% 11460 0.1 0.02 0.376 0.357
Harvester Fall Tact,Shdw 100% 200% 24495 0.1 0.05 0.212 0.194
Over-Prepared Winter Tact,Hydro 100% 200% 2275 0 0.12 0.828 0.880
Penguin Winter Tact,Hydro 100% 200% 2505 0 0.18 0.804 0.849
Icicle Winter Tact,Hydro 100% 200% 11340 0 0.25 0.379 0.360
Frostbite Winter Tact,Hydro 100% 200% 14380 0 0.21 0.320 0.300
Bruticle Winter Tact,Hydro 100% 200% 16649 0 0.19 0.287 0.267
Winter Mage Winter Tact,Hydro 100% 200% 24495 0.1 0.05 0.212 0.194
Trap Power 5366 3999
Trap Luck 31 39
Spellbook Base Catch Rate Estimates - includes Lucky Shield (see tabs at bottom for other setups)
-----------------------Tactical------------------------- ------------Physical-------------- --------Shadow------- -----------Hydro---------
HVMT GS SnoB CDDB Partybot CCT CoT Gorgon BG Kraken HeatBath ASG
0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990
0.928 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990
0.714 0.745 0.783 0.990 0.990 0.990
0.469 0.470 0.456 0.837 0.793 0.780
0.455 0.454 0.439 0.817 0.771 0.759
0.300 0.292 0.270 0.591 0.533 0.528
0.973 0.990 0.990
0.949 0.990 0.990
0.849 0.919 0.990
0.459 0.467 0.464
0.410 0.414 0.406
0.295 0.292 0.278
0.820 0.857 0.913 0.990 0.949 0.891
0.795 0.828 0.874 0.990 0.924 0.863
0.719 0.738 0.757 0.914 0.846 0.777
0.368 0.355 0.325 0.517 0.458 0.389
0.355 0.342 0.311 0.501 0.443 0.375
0.198 0.185 0.161 0.293 0.253 0.207
0.809 0.844 0.895 0.990 0.990 0.990
0.784 0.814 0.855 0.990 0.990 0.990
0.358 0.345 0.314 0.642 0.628 0.591
0.301 0.288 0.258 0.558 0.552 0.516
0.270 0.256 0.227 0.509 0.506 0.472
0.198 0.185 0.161 0.389 0.393 0.364
4914 3987 2613 5896 4322 4515 3441 2975 2280 4446 5355 4879
30 36 42 40 39 38 24 21 19 32 28 26
Bill Comeau Tactical Alt Trap Mouse Tribal Base Catch Rate Estimates (including Lucky Shield)
Updated 9/11/2010 Season Weaknesses Effective Effective Power ZFM 2010 HVMT
Derpicorn Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 1000 0.986 0.990 0.975
Hydrophobe Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 1990 0.870 0.941 0.851
Tanglefoot Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 4430 0.673 0.687 0.648
Puddlemancer Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 9940 0.446 0.427 0.421
Spring Familiar Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 10465 0.432 0.412 0.408
Vinetail Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 19005 0.287 0.263 0.267
Hot Head Summer Tactical 150% 0% 2290 0.900 0.990 0.881
Monarch Summer Tactical 150% 0% 2535 0.878 0.971 0.859
Firefly Summer Tactical 150% 0% 3695 0.789 0.849 0.765
Stinger Summer Tactical 150% 0% 13085 0.431 0.421 0.407
Firebreather Summer Tactical 150% 0% 15525 0.386 0.372 0.363
Summer Mage Summer Tactical 150% 0% 24495 0.278 0.261 0.259
Whirleygig Fall Tact,Shadow 100% 200% 2180 0.780 0.803 0.758
Pumpkin Head Fall Tact,Shadow 100% 200% 2395 0.757 0.775 0.735
Scarecrow Fall Tact,Shadow 100% 200% 3170 0.686 0.687 0.662
Harvest Harrier Fall Tact,Shadow 100% 200% 10875 0.355 0.324 0.334
Fall Familiar Fall Tact,Shadow 100% 200% 11460 0.343 0.311 0.321
Harvester Fall Tact,Shadow 100% 200% 24495 0.192 0.167 0.178
Over-Prepared Winter Tact,Hydro 100% 200% 2275 0.770 0.790 0.748
Penguin Winter Tact,Hydro 100% 200% 2505 0.746 0.761 0.724
Icicle Winter Tact,Hydro 100% 200% 11340 0.345 0.314 0.324
Frostbite Winter Tact,Hydro 100% 200% 14380 0.291 0.261 0.272
Bruticle Winter Tact,Hydro 100% 200% 16649 0.261 0.232 0.243
Winter Mage Winter Tact,Hydro 100% 200% 24495 0.192 0.167 0.178
Trap Power 5101 3691 4648
Trap Luck 24 32 23
Tribal Base Catch Rate Estimates (including Lucky Shield) Rhino Rhino Onyx Mall
CDDB Rhino Onyx Mall CoT Kraken Heat Bath ASG Magma MSB MSB
0.990 0.990 0.971 0.990 0.990 0.990
0.990 0.923 0.893 0.990 0.990 0.981
0.990 0.786 0.746 0.878 0.857 0.817
0.736 0.590 0.543 0.650 0.639 0.593
0.719 0.576 0.529 0.635 0.624 0.578
0.516 0.418 0.375 0.456 0.451 0.409
0.879
0.857
0.787
0.433
0.419
0.241
0.990 0.959 0.928
0.990 0.942 0.910
0.553 0.557 0.520
0.479 0.488 0.453
0.436 0.447 0.414
0.332 0.346 0.318
5624 6048 5168 3136 4219 5135 4643 5670 5880 5084
33 15 13 17 25 21 19 25 23 21
Bill Comeau Alt Est'd A Est Comparison of Bases
Created 9/11/2010 Weak Tact Trap Mouse M % ZFM
Mouse Season to Effect Effect Power P Freq Magma MSB Spell
Derpicorn Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 1000 0 0.11 0.990 0.990 0.990
Hydrophobe Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 1990 0 0.16 0.977 0.953 0.944
Tanglefoot Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 4430 0 0.3 0.751 0.736 0.737
Puddlemancer Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 9940 0 0.35 0.493 0.486 0.493
Spring Familiar Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 10465 0 0.03 0.477 0.471 0.478
Vinetail Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 19005 0.1 0.05 0.315 0.312 0.319
Hot Head Sum Tactical 150% 0% 2290 0 0.15 0.990 0.990 0.988
Monarch Sum Tactical 150% 0% 2535 0 0.15 0.990 0.977 0.965
Firefly Sum Tactical 150% 0% 3695 0 0.2 0.901 0.876 0.869
Stinger Sum Tactical 150% 0% 13085 0 0.25 0.486 0.477 0.483
Firebreather Sum Tactical 150% 0% 15525 0 0.2 0.434 0.427 0.433
Summer Mage Sum Tactical 150% 0% 24495 0.1 0.05 0.312 0.307 0.314
Whirleygig Fall Tact,Shdw 100% 200% 2180 0 0.15 0.855 0.840 0.838
Pumpkin Head Fall Tact,Shdw 100% 200% 2395 0 0.2 0.829 0.815 0.815
Scarecrow Fall Tact,Shdw 100% 200% 3170 0 0.23 0.750 0.738 0.741
Harvest Harrier Fall Tact,Shdw 100% 200% 10875 0 0.35 0.383 0.381 0.390
Fall Familiar Fall Tact,Shdw 100% 200% 11460 0.1 0.02 0.369 0.367 0.376
Harvester Fall Tact,Shdw 100% 200% 24495 0.1 0.05 0.205 0.205 0.212
Over-Prepared Wint Tact,Hyd 100% 200% 2275 0 0.12 0.843 0.829 0.828
Penguin Wint Tact,Hyd 100% 200% 2505 0 0.18 0.817 0.803 0.804
Icicle Wint Tact,Hyd 100% 200% 11340 0 0.25 0.372 0.370 0.379
Frostbite Wint Tact,Hyd 100% 200% 14380 0 0.21 0.313 0.312 0.320
Bruticle Wint Tact,Hyd 100% 200% 16649 0 0.19 0.280 0.279 0.287
Winter Mage Wint Tact,Hyd 100% 200% 24495 0.1 0.05 0.205 0.205 0.212
Trap Power 4871 5030 5366
Trap Luck 34 32 31
Comparison of Bases
Chrome Drillbot CoT Kraken
Magma MSB Spell Magma MSB Spell Magma MSB Spell
0.990 0.990 0.990
0.990 0.990 0.990
0.990 0.990 0.990
0.877 0.847 0.837
0.855 0.826 0.817
0.610 0.592 0.591
0.990 0.990 0.990
0.990 0.990 0.990
0.973 0.929 0.914
0.531 0.512 0.517
0.513 0.495 0.501
0.294 0.285 0.293
0.990 0.990 0.990
0.990 0.990 0.990
0.667 0.644 0.642
0.576 0.558 0.558
0.523 0.507 0.509
0.397 0.386 0.389
5376 5544 5896 3039 3142 3441 3996 4144 4446
43 41 40 27 25 24 35 33 32
Notes:
Sheet tabs in lower left
This table compares Magma, Molten Shrapnel
and Spellbook using the V2 Luck model and the
best weapons for each season.
Last Updated September 11, 2010
Spreadsheet continues
Scroll Down to Winter Mage
Est'd A Magma/Shield
Weak Tact Alt Mouse M ZFM ZFM 2010
Summer Mice Season to Effect Effect Power P Est Actual Est
Hot Head Sum Tact 150% 0% 2290 0 0.990 0.997 0.990
Monarch Sum Tact 150% 0% 2535 0 0.990 0.993 0.990
Firefly Sum Tact 150% 0% 3695 0 0.901 0.963 0.990
Stinger Sum Tact 150% 0% 13085 0 0.486 0.564 0.506
Firebreather Sum Tact 150% 0% 15525 0 0.434 0.515 0.446
Summer Mage Sum Tact 150% 0% 24495 0.1 0.312 0.366 0.312
# Attractions Sampled 2052
Trap Power 4871 3567
Trap Luck 34 42
8/27/2010 Est'd A
Weak Tact Alt Mouse M CoT/Mag CoT/Mag CoT/MSB
Fall Mice Season to Effect Effect Power P Est Actual Est
Whirleygig Fall Tact,Shd 100% 200% 2180 0 0.990 0.996 0.990
Pumpkin Head Fall Tact,Shd 100% 200% 2395 0 0.990 0.992 0.990
Scarecrow Fall Tact,Shd 100% 200% 3170 0 0.973 0.990 0.929
Harvest Harrier Fall Tact,Shd 100% 200% 10875 0 0.531 0.541 0.512
Fall Familiar Fall Tact,Shd 100% 200% 11460 0.1 0.513 0.563 0.495
Harvester Fall Tact,Shd 100% 200% 24495 0.1 0.294 0.368 0.285
# Attractions Sampled 1769
Trap Power 3039 3142
Trap Luck 27 25
Magma/Shield Molten/Shield
2010 ZFM ZFM 2010 2010
Actual Est Actual Est Actual
1.000 0.990 0.987 0.990 1.000
1.000 0.977 0.994 0.990 1.000
0.991 0.876 0.990 0.990 1.000
0.656 0.477 0.545 0.490 0.743*
0.588 0.427 0.554 0.433 0.529
0.442 0.307 0.348 0.304 0.375
1036 1072 120
5030 3683
32 40
CoT/MSB
Actual
1.000
1.000
0.981
0.574
0.462
0.447
670
Notes
Summer
Results were compiled 8/24 from hunter reports from a
thread in Lore section. There may be bias in such
results, with hunters not having caught Mage or
with weak results failing to report.
If they hold true, these early results suggest that the
preliminary Summer estimates are low for stronger mice.
* Small sample
Fall
Results were compiled 8/27-28 from hunter reports to a
Forum thread. A total of 1,769 CoT/Magma and 670
CoT/MSB attractions were reported.
Some significant deviations from the Luck model were
found for Scarecrow and Harvester (MSB only).
Results shaded in yellow are significantly
different than model estimates, with 95%
confidence (two-tailed z-test)
Bill Comeau Last Updated August 28,2010
4280
Commentary
First, note that many of the differences between the trap's estimated catch rates are very small, so it might takes 100's, or in some cases, even 1000's of hunts to show a difference between top trap setups.
The "Luck" Catch Rate model is greatly influenced by Trap Effectiveness x Luck Bonus, which is squared in the formula.
Therefore, we should expect high luck traps to have an even greater edge when hunting in an area where Trap Effectiveness is high.
This is certainly true with three of the seasons, including Winter, where the modifier is 200%.
Since Luck is being squared, you clearly will get a lot more impact as well moving from 33 to 40 than from 10 to 17, for example.
So adding luck to an already high luck setup will work the best.
Conversely, setups with only 100% effectiveness, such as Tactical in Fall and Winter are less influenced by the luck bonus.
In addition, the formula is affected by high vs low mouse power, so you may see one trap performing better on weaker mice but not stronger mice.
So, to sum up, a choice of trap based on this model is really situation-specific, there may not be one "blanket" answer.
Zugzwang's First Move (Tactical 3660 Power, 15% Power bonus, 0% Attraction bonus, 17 Luck)
My comments above help to explain a ZFM vs 2010 comparison.
First, with much higher power but lower luck, ZFM tends to be at its best against higher power mice.
When Effectiveness is higher, such as Summer, it loses ground to 2010 which has higher luck.
When Effectiveness is at 100%, such as Winter, it consistently edges out 2010, especially for the most powerful mice.
So I see ZFM as a useful addition to anyone's inventory, when used in the right situations and it may be especially helpful in the Tower against the most powerful mice there.
Heat Bath (Hydro 4000 Power, 5% Power bonus, 0% Attraction bonus, 14 Luck)
This new Hydro trap barely misses catching the Kraken LE trap against Winter mice based on the Luck CR model and is superior to ASG!
This is a perfect example of where the comments above apply: the 200% modifier for Winter/Hydro means that Kraken's 4 higher luck is boosted significantly and balances out HB's much higher power.
An easy decision for those without Kraken. It may not have much benefit otherwise, unless hunting in an area with low trap effectiveness modifier and powerful mice.
Bill Comeau August 2010