Seasonal Climate Diagnostics Consortium: Analysis of the NDJF 2002-03 climate
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Seasonal Climate Diagnostics Consortium:Analysis of the NDJF 2002-03 climateforecasts and observations in NE U.S.
(What the heck happened?)
Tony Barnston, Arun Kumar,Lisa Goddard and Marty Hoerling
CDPW, October 2003, Reno, Nevada
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‘ ‘
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CDC’s multi-model AGCM-mimicking CCA:Forecast made Nov 2002 for DJF 2002/03
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DJF 2002-03 Surface Temperature Made November using predicted SST
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Canonical surface temperature El Nino response
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Canonical surface temperature El Nino response
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Canonical precipitation El Nino response
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CPC temperature forecast for DJF 2002-03Made mid-November
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IRI temperature forecast for DJF 2002-03Made mid-November
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DJF 2002-03 Observed SST Anomaly
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X
X
X = significant errorin IRI’s SST forecast
X
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CDC
DJF 2002-03From observed SST
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From NOAA Climate Prediction Center
wow
wow
gee whiz
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Sign-Agreement Diagrams
200mb height
5 modelsplus obs
5 models
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Signal-to-Noise
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“Noise”
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Signal-to-Noise
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Signal-to-Noise
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Individual ensemble members from the various models
EnsAvg
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Fraction of ensemble members having positive anomaly(deviation from 0.5)
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Toward AGCM-generatedprobability forecasts
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Fraction of ensemble members having positive anomaly(deviation from 0.5)
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Fraction of ensemble members having positive anomaly(deviation from 0.5)
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Fraction of ensemble members having positive anomaly(deviation from 0.5)
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Fraction of ensemble members having positive anomaly(deviation from 0.5)
200mb
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Fraction of ensemble members having positive anomaly(deviation from 0.5)
200mb
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Fraction of ensemble members having positive anomaly(deviation from 0.5)
200mb
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2000-01 2001-02 1997-98 NDJF NDJF NDJF
5 models 5 models 5 models + obs + obs + obs
5 models 5 models 5 models
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Reliability Diagram 1997-2001
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Reliability Diagramlonger “AMIP”
period
from Goddardet al. 2003
(EGS-AGU-EUG)