Searching for an Economic Recovery
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Transcript of Searching for an Economic Recovery
Board of DirectorsSheila T. Francoeur, Chair
David Alukonis
William H. Dunlap
Eric Herr
Dianne Mercier
Richard Ober
James Putnam
Stephen J. Reno
Stuart V. Smith, Jr.
Donna Sytek
Brian F. Walsh
Michael Whitney
Martin L. Gross, Chair Emeritus
Todd I. Selig
Kimon S. Zachos
Directors Emeritus
“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”
Searching for an Economic Recovery
Lakes Region Planning Commission
Monday, September 30, 2013
Labor Markets
Hospital Service Areas
Tourist Regions
Watersheds
Housing Markets
What is New Hampshire
Lakes Region has about 10% of NH residents
Population 2011
28,95051,174
124,874
99,175
134,976
295,221
93,999
261,249
226,293
Great
Nor
th W
oods
Whit
e M
ount
ains R
egion
Lake
s Reg
ion
Dartm
outh
/Lak
e Sun
apee
Reg
ion
Mon
adno
ck R
egion
Seaco
ast R
egion
Great
er C
onco
rd
Great
er M
anch
este
r
Great
er N
ashu
a
Merrimack Valley Region
If you live in the Lakes Region, you work here.
% of workers commuting to out of state jobs
6.5% 7.0%
3.3%
9.5%
13.3%
19.1%
4.2%
13.1%
30.7%
Great
Nor
th W
oods
Whit
e M
ount
ains R
egion
Lake
s Reg
ion
Dartm
outh
/Lak
e Sun
apee
Reg
ion
Mon
adno
ck R
egion
Seaco
ast R
egion
Great
er C
onco
rd
Great
er M
anch
este
r
Great
er N
ashu
a
Merrimack Valley Region
Lakes Region relies on Manufacturing
Manufacturing as a share of all Wages (2011)
9.0% 9.7%
14.3% 13.3%
18.3%
12.8%
8.5%
12.3%
27.5%
14.7%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
Great
Nor
th W
oods
Whi
te M
ount
ains R
egio
n
Lake
s Reg
ion
Dartm
outh
/Lak
e Sun
apee
Reg
ion
Mon
adno
ck R
egion
Seaco
ast R
egion
Great
er C
onco
rd
Great
er M
anch
este
r
Great
er N
ashu
a
Total
New H
amps
hire
Lakes Region also relies on Tourism
Accomodation and Food Services as a share of all Wages (2011)
6.4%
10.1%
5.9%
2.6% 2.8%3.5%
2.3% 2.6% 2.2%3.1%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
Great
Nor
th W
oods
Whit
e M
ount
ains R
egion
Lake
s Reg
ion
Dartm
outh
/Lak
e Sun
apee
Reg
ion
Mon
adno
ck R
egion
Seaco
ast R
egion
Great
er C
onco
rd
Great
er M
anch
este
r
Great
er N
ashu
a
Total
New H
amps
hire
Lakes Region is 2nd in % Seasonal Homes
Seasonal Homes as % of Total
22.9%
36.8%
30.9%
11.9%
9.0%
6.0%
1.6% 0.8% 1.2%
Great
Nor
th W
oods
Whit
e M
ount
ains R
egion
Lake
s Reg
ion
Dartm
outh
/Lak
e Sun
apee
Reg
ion
Mon
adno
ck R
egion
Seaco
ast R
egion
Great
er C
onco
rd
Great
er M
anch
este
r
Great
er N
ashu
a
Lakes Region Highest Property Value per Capita
2012 Property Value per Person
$71,971
$164,556
$182,650
$131,691
$92,467
$126,414
$92,365 $92,598
$111,021
Great
Nor
th W
oods
Whit
e M
ount
ains R
egion
Lake
s Reg
ion
Dartm
outh
/Lak
e Sun
apee
Reg
ion
Mon
adno
ck R
egion
Seaco
ast R
egion
Great
er C
onco
rd
Great
er M
anch
este
r
Great
er N
ashu
a
Above NH average Property Crime in Lakes Region
Property Crime Rate in Largest Town/City
1,629.6
4,127.2
4,683.2
3,380.2 3,459.9 3,350.0
3,012.8
3,822.9
2,459.4
Great
Nor
th W
oods
Whit
e M
ount
ains R
egion
Lake
s Reg
ion
Dartm
outh
/Lak
e Sun
apee
Reg
ion
Mon
adno
ck R
egion
Seaco
ast R
egion
Great
er C
onco
rd
Great
er M
anch
este
r
Great
er N
ashu
a
Merrimack Valley Region
Lakes Region Educational Attainment close to average
Percent of adult population with a B.A. or higher
14.7%
26.9%28.4%
36.5%
31.1%
35.1% 35.0%
31.4%
37.6%
Great
Nor
th W
oods
Whit
e M
ount
ains R
egion
Lake
s Reg
ion
Dartm
outh
/Lak
e Sun
apee
Reg
ion
Mon
adno
ck R
egion
Seaco
ast R
egion
Great
er C
onco
rd
Great
er M
anch
este
r
Great
er N
ashu
a
Lakes Region Social Need is Above State AveragePercent of persons in Poverty (2007-2011)
13.7%
10.7% 10.6%
8.9% 8.7%7.7% 7.5%
8.1%
5.1%
Great
Nor
th W
oods
Whit
e M
ount
ains R
egion
Lake
s Reg
ion
Dartm
outh
/Lak
e Sun
apee
Reg
ion
Mon
adno
ck R
egion
Seaco
ast R
egion
Great
er C
onco
rd
Great
er M
anch
este
r
Great
er N
ashu
a
• Percentage of the Population with a BA or better
• 2010 Median HH Income• Poverty Rate• Households with Food
Stamps• Medicaid Members as a %
per Pop• Low to Moderate Income Pct• Elementary Per Pupil
Expenditures 2009/10• 2011 Actual Property Tax
Rate• Voter Participation (%) in the
Last Election• Poverty Under 18• Poverty 65 plus• 2011 High School graduation
rate
The Geography of Need
Lakes Region IncomesAverage Household Income (2007-2011)
$50,818
$61,736
$68,845$75,199 $73,166
$86,362$80,813
$84,879
$94,960
Great
Nor
th W
oods
Whit
e M
ount
ains R
egion
Lake
s Reg
ion
Dartm
outh
/Lak
e Sun
apee
Reg
ion
Mon
adno
ck R
egion
Seaco
ast R
egion
Great
er C
onco
rd
Great
er M
anch
este
r
Great
er N
ashu
a
Lakes Region WagesAverage Weekly Wage (2011)
$606.38 $620.31$698.50
$981.02
$779.66
$884.54$845.89
$918.46
$1,089.00
Great
Nor
th W
oods
Whit
e M
ount
ains R
egion
Lake
s Reg
ion
Dartm
outh
/Lak
e Sun
apee
Reg
ion
Mon
adno
ck R
egion
Seaco
ast R
egion
Great
er C
onco
rd
Great
er M
anch
este
r
Great
er N
ashu
a
Anecdotal evidence from the Fed Bank of Boston, July 17, 2013
• Economic activity in New England continues to expand at a moderate pace, according to business contacts.
• Retailers, tourism contacts, manufacturers and consulting and advertising contacts all report modest increases in sales.
• Commercial real estate conditions are improving or holding steady, depending on location.
• Residential real estate contacts report increases in both house prices and sales.
• Overall prices are rising at a modest pace, generally in line with cost increases.
• Most businesses are holding employment steady, with substantial staffing changes only at firms experiencing significant increases or decreases in sales.
• Contacts generally expect the recent trend of moderate growth to continue.
Calculated Risk has the clearest picture of the problem we face:
NH – Less of a decline, but a slower recovery
Index of Total NonFarm Employment (Seasonally Adjusted)
92.0
93.0
94.0
95.0
96.0
97.0
98.0
99.0
100.0
101.0
Jan-
07
May
-07
Sep-0
7
Jan-
08
May
-08
Sep-0
8
Jan-
09
May
-09
Sep-0
9
Jan-
10
May
-10
Sep-1
0
Jan-
11
May
-11
Sep-1
1
Jan-
12
May
-12
Sep-1
2
Jan-
13
Dec
200
7 =
100
US NE NH
New England
United States
New Hampshire
Migration slowed in last decade
Net Migration Into and Out of New Hampshire
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
A Few Thoughts on Demographics = Destiny
Growth in the past driven by high rates of migration. Percent Change in NH Population
8.5%
13.8%
21.5%
24.8%
20.5%
11.4%
6.9%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
U.S. Census figures released in December show that the 2000s saw the slowest rate of population growth in New Hampshire in six decades. Later this year, the Census Bureau will release specific population figures for counties and communities. What will those numbers tell us about the state’s demographic patterns over the past decade?
Source: New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies, analysis of U.S. Census data
NH Population forecasts revised down
New Hampshire Population Forecasts
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
OEP11/06
RPC05/13
Total NH Population
NH Population forecasts revised down, especially for 0-19 yr olds
New Hampshire School Age (0 to 19) Population Forecasts
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
OEP11/06
RPC05/13
NH School Age Population
23
The new 60? Significant future growth of the population 75 - 79
Change in the NH Population Over the Age of 65 - 2010 to 2030
46,572
55,911
43,012
29,437
21,464
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
65 - 69 70 - 74 75 - 79 80 - 84 85 +
Declining Number of Teens and Twenty Year Olds
15 to 29
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
New Hampshire Population Age Group
Actual Forecast
And Spending Patterns Change with Age Too.
New Hampshire Population by Selected Age Groups
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Year
Num
ber
of R
esid
ents
25 to 49 50 to 74
Actual Forecast
Wealth Creation Crowd
Wealth Preservation Crowd
Younger groups less likely to form a household
Headship Ratios - Census Years
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
15 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 to 74 75 yearsand over
Total
1990
2000
2010
Belknap County, NH
Younger groups less likely to be home owners
Home Ownership - Census Years
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
15 to 24years
25 to 34years
35 to 44years
45 to 54years
55 to 64years
65 to 74years
75 yearsand over
Total
1990
2000
2010
Belknap County, NH
The increase in the Senior Population in the Lakes
Population by Age Group
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Under 15 15 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 to 74 75 to 84 85 & older
History 2010 Base Year2025Lakes Region Planning Commission
Means a change in age by Ownership
Owner Households
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Under Age 65 65 & Older
History 2010 Base Year2025
Lakes Region Planning Commission
And also a change in rental demand
Renter Households
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
Under Age 65 65 & Older
History 2010 Base Year2025
Lakes Region Planning Commission
In this context, what should we invest in?
• Human Capital
• Economic Creativity
• Business Base
• Costs of Business?
• Infrastructure?
• Quality of Life?
NH Rank in Public Policy Indicators
W Y
W V
W I
W A
V T
V A
U T
T X
T N
S D
S C
R I
P A
O R
O K
O H
N Y
N V
N M
N J
N H
N E
N D
N C
M T
M S
M O
M N
M I
M E
M D
M A
L A
K YK S
I NI L
I D
I A
H I
G A
F L
D E
C T
C OC A
A ZA R
A L
A K P u b l i c P o l i c y D a s h b o a r d 2 0 1 3O v e r a l l R a n k i n g
# 1 i s B e s t
1 t o 1 0
1 1 t o 2 5
2 6 t o 4 0
4 1 t o 5 0
Public Policy Indicators Compared to Neighbor and
Competitor States
State and Rank Fiscal
Educations and
Workforce RegulatoryWorkforce
Housing
Cultural and Natural Resources Energy Infrastructure Health
Business Growth and
Retention OverallNew Hampshire 17 14 22 31 2 28 27 20 7 8
Maine 31 36 42 29 10 35 33 49 31 39Massachusetts 37 1 41 41 1 20 35 16 2 5Vermont 35 32 31 32 7 24 43 22 11 26
North Carolina 33 11 14 25 16 13 18 30 27 15South Carolina 28 29 17 15 36 33 12 47 30 31Texas 8 16 28 21 45 41 10 38 23 25Virginia 11 4 20 35 9 27 15 9 29 4
NH Excels on Current Climate Indicators
NH Economic Dashboard 2013Area Indicator NH RankWFHousing Homeownership rates 2Regulatory Pollution Abatement / $ Value Added 3Cultural Percent of tree cover urban areas 3EdWorkFrc High School grad rate 4Cultural Voter turnout rate 4EdWorkFrc Pct of pop in Science & Engineering workforce 5EdWorkFrc Pct w/Associates+ 6EdWorkFrc Percent of children aged 3-4 in preschool 6Fiscal State Business Tax Climate Index 7Fiscal Public health/welfare spending per person in poverty 7
NH Rank - Top Ten Out of 50 Indicators
But NH Lags on Future Climate Indicators
NH Economic Dashboard 2013Area Indicator NH RankFiscal Top marginal corporate tax rate 38Infrastructure Percent of bridges deficient or obsolete 39WFHousing Owner costs more than 30% of Income 43Health Health Care Expenditures per Capita by State of Residence, 2009 43Fiscal State debt per $ Personal Income 45Energy Industrial Electric Prices 46GrowthReten Capital Investment Projects per 100,000 pop 46Regulatory Land Use Restriction 47EdWorkFrc Change in 35-44 y.o share of population, 2000 to 2010 48EdWorkFrc Average student debt 50
NH Rank - Bottom Ten Out of 50 Indicators
A Full Proof Economic Indicator
New Hampshire Boat Registrations and Payroll Employment (000's)
60000
65000
70000
75000
80000
85000
90000
95000
100000
105000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
NH Boat Registrations NH Payroll Employment
New Hampshire Center for New Hampshire Center for Public Policy StudiesPublic Policy Studies
Want to learn more?• Online: nhpolicy.org• Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy• Twitter: @nhpublicpolicy• Our blog: policyblognh.org• (603) 226-2500
Board of DirectorsSheila T. Francoeur, Chair
David Alukonis
William H. Dunlap
Eric Herr
Dianne Mercier
Richard Ober
James Putnam
Stephen J. Reno
Stuart V. Smith, Jr.
Donna Sytek
Brian F. Walsh
Michael Whitney
Martin L. Gross, Chair Emeritus
Todd I. Selig
Kimon S. Zachos
Directors Emeritus“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”