SEA LEVEL RISE: A California Perspective
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Transcript of SEA LEVEL RISE: A California Perspective
SEA LEVEL RISE:A California Perspective
Julie ThomasCoastal Data Information Program
Southern California Ocean Observing System Scripps Institution of Oceanography
May 3, 2011
Do our federal, state and local communities take sea level rise seriously?
“I’ve been plagued with worry over rising water levels, so….”
The Impacts of Sea-Level Rise on the California Coast by the Pacific Institute
March 2009
110,000 peopleat risk in OrangeCounty
Population vulnerable to a 100 yearCoastal flood with a 1.4 m sea-level rise
• Flooding and erosion already pose a threat to communities along the California coast and there is compelling evidence that these risks will increase in the future.
• In areas where the coast erodes easily, sea –level rise will likely accelerate shoreline recession due to erosion.
• Recommend that Climate change must be integrated into the design of all coastal structures. Future development should be limited in areas that are at risk from rising seas. http://www.pacinst.org/reports/sea_level_rise
California Coastal Commission: Current Approaches to Addressing Sea Level Rise
Through Planning, Permitting and PartnershipsWestern Coastal Program Managers Meeting
January 5, 2011
Michelle Jesperson, Federal Programs Manager
California Coastal Commission
Local communities are beginning to address sea level rise in their General Plans.
California Today
California in 2100
Sea Level Today
3m
5m
+ Extreme High Tide
+ Extreme Storm Wave Runup
Maximum Potential Inundation Elevation 8m
+ PDO+ ENSO
0m
Elevation
Combined Effect of Sea Level Rise, Ocean Warming Events, Tides and Waves
Ice Loss
Long-Term Risk Factors
Episodic Risk Factors+Extreme Wave Runup
+Extreme High Tide
Federal & State Sponsored Monitoring• Coastal Data Information Program (CDIP)
• Southern California Coastal Ocean Observing System (SCCOOS)
Coastal Data Information Program
35 years of monitoring Waves on the West Coast.
Ocean Beach Feb 1983
Storm and El Niño enhanced sea levels during an extreme tide
Collecting Shoreline Change data for Southern California
• Predicting sea level rise impacts includes consideration of tides, wave height, terrestrial elevation and runup.
LIDAR (Light Detection & Ranging)an optical remote sensing technology
Alamitos Bay
SealBeach
Elevation map
Magenta = Sea LevelDark red = 5 m elevation
Maps are available : cdip.ucsd.edu/scbps
Data are available for download : http://www.csc.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/
Feb 2010
LIDAR (Light Detecting Radar)
Alamitos Bay
SealBeach
Elevation difference map Between Sep 2004 &Feb 2010.
Dark red = 2m erosionDark blue = 2m accretion
CDIP – Assessment of Shoreline Change California Energy Commission – 2050 Report
Selected low-lying areas were chosen for the Reportdepicting the effects of Sea Level Rise:
OceansideDel MarMission BayPoint LomaCoronadoImperial Beach
San Diego FoundationImperial Beach – 2100(waves not included)
* Effects of erosion or accretion are not included.
Ca Energy CommisionImperial Beach – 2050(waves are included)
During a January 2001 storm, Chris Hanzely employedalternate means of transport on Mission Boulevard in thelow-lying beach area, while John Van Doren sought highground to record the scene.
Photo: John Gastaldo / Union-Tribune
COASTAL FLOODING & EROSION
Automated Warnings of Highway Flooding
Open Coast Flooding & Erosion Risk Assessment : Pacific Region
Erosion problems now It WILL get worse How much worse?!
El Niño + Large Waves + High Tides +Runup + Sea Level Rise
Torrey Pines State Beach – Nov. 2001
Planning for Impact & a Resilient Future Environment
– Mapping/monitoring– Comprehensive floodplain management– Identifying land at risk– Develop decision-making methodology to
determine whether to: • Fortify or rebuild damaged infrastructure;• Reduce the footprint of vulnerable or damaged
infrastructure; or• Abandon and relocate critical infrastructure.
Encinitas - 2002 Encinitas - 2011
Sept 2010
California Coastal Conservancy/Ocean Protection Council
As baseline for planning, surveyed the CaliforniaCoast with both bathymetric and topographic LIDAR, up to the 20 meterContour
Partnering Organizations are in the process of surveying coastal communities to help build
technical capacity to address climate change. • Sea Grant • Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford University• Susanne Moser Research & consulting• California Ocean Protection/Ocean Science Trust• NOAA • San Francisco Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve• San Francisco Bay Conservation & Development • California Coastal Commission• RISA & SCCOOS
March 6, 2011
1. FEDERAL, STATE and Municipalities are starting to plan forClimate Change. Is it being taken seriously?
2. Sea Level Rise is onecomponent that needsto be addressed.
How to build resilient communities ?
SUMMARY