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SE European Markets GREECE – CROATIA - MONTENEGRO
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Dr. Aris Ikkos SE European Markets GREECE – CROATIA - MONTENEGRO
description
SE European Markets GREECE – CROATIA - MONTENEGRO. Dr. Aris Ikkos. Macro data. FutureBrand ranks Greece as No. 5 Country Brand in Tourism. First IPO participants have seen shares appreciate by 100% since Dec. 2005 So far raised € 400 mn (100 + 300) – to be invested by end of 2007. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of SE European Markets GREECE – CROATIA - MONTENEGRO
Dr. Aris Ikkos
SE European MarketsGREECE – CROATIA - MONTENEGRO
Macro data
GREECEGREECE CROATIACROATIA MONTE-MONTE-NEGRONEGRO
Currency € HRK (EU: 2011) €
Rank (arrivals/revenue) 15 / 10 18/ n/a Top-growing tourism destination
WTTC competitiveness 24 38 61
Per Capita 2007 ($) 27,360 15,355 4.189
Arrivals 2006 16 mn 10 mn 1 mn
Rev/tourist ($) 1,073 881 n/a
Tourism Economy ($) 51.8 mn 13.7 mn 0.7 mn
10-yr growth forecast 4% 8% 11%
Coast (km)/Blue Flags 16,000 / 404 5,000 / 98 253 / 15
FutureBrand ranks Greece as No. 5 Country Brand in Tourism
First IPO participants have seen shares appreciate by 100% since Dec. 2005
So far raised € 400 mn (100 + 300) – to be invested by end of 2007
Indicators Spain,Portugal
Greece, Croatia, Cyprus, Turkey
Tourist arrivals (2004) 65 million 43 million
Tourist arrivals 2003 - 2005 + 3% + 10%
Area 597,000 m2 978,000 m2
Shoreline 6,757 km 27,359 km
International airports (2004) 18 17
Number of Blue Flag beaches 669 699
Golf courses (2004) 333 20
Completed Golf Resorts (2004) 200+ (estimated) 1
Holiday Homes
The Case for Athens
5* Hotels and Resorts
Greece
Athens airport traffic
Consistently ranked among top airports worldwide
4,1 4,4 5,1 5,2 5,5
7,7 7,98,6 9,1 9,6
11,8 12,313,7 14,3
15,1
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
14,0
16,0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Domestic International Total
The case of Athens : a modern city with things to do
Planned Conference Centre main auditorium : ~ 3.000 pax - can be split into 2
of 2.000 and 1.000 pax 2 auxiliary auditoria : 450 pax each break out rooms : total capacity 2.100 pax covered lobby / exhibition area : 10.500 sq. m.
In excess of € 1 bn
invested in hotel
renovations for
2004 Olympics
Athens 5* hotels
5559 62
68
2419
2630
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2003 2004 2005 2006
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
ARR REVPAR OCC hotels
Athens 5* hotels – 2007 vs 2006
5* Hotels in Greece
39
30
47
43
10
10
34
23
46
37
7
8
23
9
29
21
6
4
0 10 20 30 40 50
Aegean
Northern GR
Central GR
Crete
Ionian
Peloponese
Total
2002 : 92 92 with 39.33739.337 beds
2005 : 155 with 56.888 beds
2007 : 179 with 64.913 beds
Major Investments
CAVO SIDERO
NAVARINO RESORT
ATALANTI HILLS
Budget (€ mn) 1,200 325 + 575 2,000
InvestorMinoan TEMES British-American
Interests Lokros
Scale (ha) 2,600 395 1,250
Project- Hotels- Housing- Golf - holes- Other
51,000
45retail, marinas,
theaters
4 + 4320 + 160
36 + 18Conference center, spas
35,000
54100 ha biological
plantations
Latent Golf Tourism Demand
Main Countries (2005)
Players per ‘000 population
Incoming tourists to Greece (2005)
Latent demand for golf tourism
UK 20.6 2.718.721 56.105
Sweden 59.3 316.042 18.732
Germany 5.2 2.241.942 11.634
Netherlands 12.1 666.287 8.048
Denmark 21.1 288.858 6.107
Norway 22.0 210.847 4.645
Other 25.581
Subtotal Europe 130.852
USA 95.0 205.656 19.537
Canada 168.0 69.532 11.681
Japan 80.0 79.276 6.342
Subtotal Long Haul 37.561
Total 168.413
How many golf courses?
Latent demand: 170.000 players Assume 4-5 rounds each (1 week) => 680.000 - 850.000 rounds With 20.000 - 30.000 rounds required per
course to make it viable
Greece can support, on latent demand alone,
22 – 45 golf courses
Significant niche markets
Main Countries (2005)
Ranking Latent demand
Ranking Incoming tourists
UK 11 11
USA 22 1212
Sweden 33 88
Canada 44 1717
Germany 55 22
The BrandsExistin
g
Entering
Greece -Investment considerations Mature Destination - € currency risk - Long Term A Corporate tax rate : 25% Government / EU subsidies
– Cash Grants : 35% or higher– Wage subsidy for employment created– Tax allowance of up to 100%
Biggest obstacle: Red Tape, but … … new Master Plan for Tourism & Real Estate
Development is expected to cut through a lot of it
Trends
Croatia
Hotels Performance
8,8789,412
9,99510,384
10
15
20
25
30
3540
45
50
55
60
2003 2004 2005 2006 est
5
6
7
8
9
1011
12
13
14
15
ARR OCC Arrivals
5* Hotels in Croatia
2001 : 7 with 3,093 beds
2004 : 11 with 3,219 beds
2007 : 13 with 5,050 beds
Source: Horwath Croatia Hotel Study
Major Investments
Port Maricio Luxury resort
Kempinski Porto Maricio
Livka Bay Resort
Budget (€ mn) 200 207 40
InvestorAB Maris &
Jack NicklausAB Maris LTD DCI & Virtus
Investments
Scale (ha) n/a n/a 56
Project- Hotel -rooms- Housing- Golf - holes- Other
460
18
350 berth marina
250
462 units
18 holes
38 berth marina
80
160 berth marina
Montenegro
Trends
Hotels Performance
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2004 2005 2006
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
ARR Occ Arrivals
Source: Horwath Croatia Hotel Study
Number of Hotels
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1* 2* 3* 4* 5*
1989
2005
2006
*Since 1989 categorization of hotels (especially 1* and 2*)
Seasonality
Major Investments
Splendid Hotel Bellevue Hotel
Budget (€ mn) 50 30 100
InvestorMontenegro stars hotel
group
Imobila- Iberostar(Germ
an-Spanish)
VEK - ZAO
Scale (ha) n/a n/a 60
Project- Hotels- Housing- Golf- Other
322 rooms22 apartments
spa
232 roomsn/a
