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Transcript of SDGs and the importance of labour market data & research Lawrence Jeff Johnson Deputy Director,...
SDGs and the importance of labour market data & research
Lawrence Jeff JohnsonDeputy Director, Research DepartmentInternational Labour Organization (ILO), Geneva
28 to 29 October 2015Tbilisi, Georgia
2
I. Introduction
II. Regional labour market trends
III. Data gaps
IV. Global experience on jobs diagnostics, strategy and implementation
Research Department, ILO - 2015
Outline
Global Employment Trends Model 3
I. Introduction
Building on the progress of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)Target 1B: Achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all, including women and young people
• Employment-to-population ratios for persons aged 15+ and youth (15-24) by sex
• The share of working poor (US$1.25 a day) in total employment
• Labour productivity
• Vulnerable employment
Global - vulnerable employment and rate (%)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20141,200,000
1,300,000
1,400,000
1,500,000
40.0
50.0
60.0
Vulnerable Employment (thousands) Vulnerable Employment Rate (%)
Vu
lner
ably
Em
plo
yed
(t
ho
usa
nd
s)
Tota
l Share
of V
uln
era
bly
Em
plo
yed in
Tota
l E
mplo
yed (%
)
Source: ILO - Trends Econometric Models, July 2015.
UNEMPLOYMENTis only the tip of the iceberg
Without workAvailable for workSeeking work
VULNERABLE EMPLOYMENT
Central and South-Eastern Europe (non-EU) and CIS1 out of 5 are vulnerably employed
Global Employment Trends Model 6
Post-2015 Agenda and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
Decent work for all - at the heart of achieving the SDGs in the next 15 years
Sustainable Development Goal 8: Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable growth, full and productive employment, and decent work for all
Global Employment Trends Model 7
Although the ILO's primary focus and lead will be on Goal 8, its actions will also have an impact on other goals and targets:
Post-2015 Agenda and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
8Research Department, ILO - 2015
II. Regional trends: growth performance
Source: ILO Research Department based on the Conference Board.
Average GDP growth in Central Asia and Eastern Europe
9Research Department, ILO - 2015
Wage and salaried employment comprise close to 80 per cent of all employment in the region
Source: World Employment and Social Outlook (WESO), May 2015.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1991 2000 2007 2014
Wag
e an
d sa
lari
ed e
mpl
oym
ent
(% o
f tot
al e
mpl
oym
ent)
10Research Department, ILO - 2015
Meanwhile, labour force participation rates are the lowest in Moldova (compared to the 6 countries in consideration)
Source: ILO Statistics 2015.
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Armenia 59 58.5 59.2 61.6 62.1 62.6 63 63.3
Azerbaijan 64.2 64.2 64.8 64.5 65 65.6 66.1 66.6
Belarus 55.5 55.1 54.7 55.1 55.4 55.7 56 56.2
Georgia 63.4 63.5 63.8 64 64.3 64.7 65 65.4
Moldova 44.4 43.9 42 41 41.6 40 40.7 41.3
Ukraine 58.2 58.3 58.4 58.6 58.9 59.1 59.4 59.6
Note: * ILO estimates and projections
Labour force participations rates (%), selected countries
11Research Department, ILO - 2015
Vulnerable employment in Central and South-Eastern Europe (non-EU) & CIS has been trending downwards
Source: Trends Econometric Models, ILO Research Department 2015.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014p 2015p29.0
29.5
30.0
30.5
31.0
31.5
32.0
32.5
33.0
17.0
18.0
19.0
20.0
21.0
22.0
23.0
Vulnerable employment (millions) - Total Share of vulnerable employment in total employment (%) - Total
Vul
nera
ble
empl
oym
ent (
mill
ions
)Share of vulnerable em
ployment in total em
ployment (%
)
Vulnerable Employment: 22.4 % (2000)
Vulnerable Employment: 18.9 % (2015)
12Research Department, ILO - 2015
While the ILO’s forecast show that youth unemployment rate is expected to edge up in the coming years
Youth unemployment rate in Central & South-Eastern Europe (non-EU) & CIS (%)
Source: Trends Econometric Models, ILO Research Department 2015.
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
Yout
h un
empl
oym
ent
rate
(%)
13Research Department, ILO - 2015
Labour productivity growth has been among the highest in the 6 countries we are examining today
Note: the bars refer to growth in labour productivity per person employed.
Source: ILO Research Department based on the Conference Board.
A moment of clarity…
Virtuous Spiral
Increased Productivity
Increased Real Wages
Increased Earnings
Poverty Alleviation
Productivity & Output Growth
Increased Well-Being & Diminished Inequality
Increased Investments & Demand
Sustainable & Expanding Growth
Decent Work & Employment
Growth
Poverty Alleviation
IncreasedReal Earnings & Social Benefits
Technological Improvements
Increased Demand, Increased Output
Increased Demand & Well-Being
Increased Technological Change
17Research Department, ILO - 2015
III. Data gaps
Data availability – ILO Statistics
Micro-data Yearly Indicators* Short-term IndicatorsSchool to Work Transition Surveys (SWTS)
Labour Force Survey 2014Labour Force Survey 2008
Azerbaijan Labour Force Survey 2011 Yes Yes (latest: 2015 Q1) Yes (2005)
BelarusDecentralized state statistical records 2014
Yes Yes (latest: 2015 Q2) No
Georgia Yes Yes (latest: 2014 Q3)** NoEarnings and labour cost survey 2013Labour Force Survey 2010
Yes
Notes: * Frequency of coverage varies by country and indicator** Only includes earnings indicator
Ukraine Yes (latest: Q1 2014) Yes (2013)
Armenia Yes Yes (latest: Q4 2013) Yes (2012 & 2014)
Moldova Yes Yes (latest: 2015 Q1) Yes (2013)
18
Highlights from the World Employment and Social Outlook (WESO) 2015:
• Standard employment model has become less and less dominant (less than one in four jobs)
• Changing nature of work and rising incidence of non-standard employment and the challenge of rising income inequality.
Research Department, ILO - 2015
IV. Global experience from ILO research
19
• The need for labour market policies and institutions to adapt to take into account new forms of employment relationships.
• The importance of social protection -- providing coverage to non-standard forms of work through policy innovations.
Research Department, ILO - 2015
IV. Global experience from ILO research (contd.)
20
The World Employment and Social Outlook (WESO) 2016 will look at:
Progress since the MDGs and challenges that lie ahead to achieve the SDGs by 2030
The challenge of reducing extreme poverty ($1.25 per day) by 2030 and the role more and better jobs play
Research Department, ILO - 2015
IV. Global experience from ILO research (forthcoming)
21
For comments/suggestions, please contact me at: [email protected]
Research Department, ILO - 2015
Thank you!!