Screpanti Strike
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Long Cycl es in Strike Activity: a n Empirical Investigation Ernesto Screpanti* INTRODUCTION The long period of economic and social disease that began in the early 70s stands in striking contrast to the golden age of the 50s and the 60s. Many economists are now struck with the observation that the same long run succession of good and bad times has occurred more or less regularly four times in the last two centuries: the Industrial Revolution (1790-1820), the Restoration (1820-1850), the Age of Capital (1850-1870), the first Great Depression (1870-1895), the Belle Epoque (1895-1915), the second Great Depression (1920-1936), the Golden Age (1950-1970), the Leaden Years (197C^?). Such an impressive alternation of splendid and gloomy epochs tallies quite well with the results of much economic research on the ex- istence of Kondratieff cycles. These are waves in the growth rates of in- dustrial output, consisting of a long phase of rapid growth, lasting 20-30 years, followed by an equally long phase of stagnation.' A periodisation of long cycles which would be accepted by the majority of students (see Bies- haar and Kleinknecht, 1983) is the following: Cycle 1st Kondratieff ca.1790-1848 2nd Kondratieff ca. 184&-1894 3rd Kondratieff ca. 18SM-1945 4th Kondratieff ca. 1945-? TABLE 1 Phases of Kondratieff Cycles upturns 1789/92 1844/51 1892/96 1939/48 downturns 1810/17 1866/75 1913/20 1967/74
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