Scottish Public Opinion Monitor - October 2012
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Transcript of Scottish Public Opinion Monitor - October 2012
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Scottish Public Opinion Monitor October 2012
2 2 2 2 2 2
Independence
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Q. Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?
28%
52%
19% Yes
No
Undecided
30%
58%
12% Yes
No
Undecided
All Certain to vote
Base: All = 1,003; all certain to vote = 66% (688). Data collected among 1,003 Scottish adults 18+, 8-15 October 2012
„Yes‟ change since June = -4% „Yes‟ change since June = -5%
Support for independence has fallen to 30% among those
certain to vote, down five points since June
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Q. Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?
Base: All certain to vote = 66% (688). Data collected among 1,003 Scottish adults 18+, 8-15 October 2012
54% 61% 63%
49% 55% 62%
17%
79% 92% 86%
37% 24% 27% 30% 35%
27%
67%
11% 4% 7% Yes
No
Men Women 18-24 25-34 35-54 55+ SNP Labour Cons. Lib
Dem
Support for independence is highest among men, those aged 35-
54 and SNP supporters
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Q. Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?
Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults.
50% 55% 58%
39% 35% 30%
Yes
No
January 2012 June 2012 October 2012
Support for independence has fallen by nine points since
January
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here Support for independence – 35 year trend
Data taken from MORI and Ipsos MORI polling (1999-07 data taken from Scottish Social Attitudes Survey)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
Su
pp
ort
fo
r in
de
pe
nd
en
ce
(%
)
Introduction of the poll tax
in Scotland Devolution referendum
Scottish Parliament opens
Devolution referendum
SNP form minority
government
SNP form majority
government
7 7 7 7 7 7
Scottish Parliament voting
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Q. If there were elections to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, how would you use your first vote?
36%
39%
12%
8% 5% SNP
Labour
Others
40%
35%
13%
8% 4% SNP
Labour
Others
All giving a voting
intention (91%)
All who are certain to
vote (63%)
Base: All giving a voting intention = 88% (880); all certain to vote = 63% (642). Data collected among 1,003 Scottish adults 18+, 8-15 October 2012
Cons.
Lib Dem
Cons.
Lib Dem
SNP lead over Labour = -3% SNP lead over Labour = +5%
The SNP have a five point lead over Labour among those certain
to vote…
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Q. If there were elections to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, how would you use your first vote?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Labour SNP Conservative Liberal Democrats Other
40%
35%
13%
8% 4%
Scottish Parliament Election
Result
Scottish Parliament Election
Result
Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults.
… although Labour have closed the gap considerably since
January
10 10 10 10 10 10
Satisfaction with party leaders
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Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as First Minister//Prime
Minister/Leader of Scottish Labour/the Scottish Liberal Democrats/the Scottish Conservatives?
Base: 1,003 Scottish adults 18+, 8-15 October 2012
Don‟t know Net satisfaction Net satisfaction
change (Jun
‟12)
9% +10% -3%
34% +5% -4%
39% -9% -2%
47% -7% -3%
62% +6% -6%
8% -35% +11%
Satisfaction with all party leaders has fallen since June – except for the
Prime Minister
64%
16%
30%
35%
30%
40%
29%
22%
23%
26%
35%
50%
David Cameron
Patrick Harvie
Willie Rennie
Ruth Davidson
Johann Lamont
Alex Salmond
Dissatisfied Satisfied
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Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as First Minister//Prime
Minister/Leader of Scottish Labour/the Scottish Liberal Democrats/the Scottish Conservatives?
Base: 1,003 Scottish adults 18+, 8-15 October 2012
Don‟t know Net satisfaction Net satisfaction
change (Jun
‟12)
8% +74% -10%
24% +40% -6%
23% +41% +15%
31% +39% +5%
9% +59% +27%
Satisfaction with Alex Salmond and Johann Lamont has fallen among their
own party’s supporters
16%
15%
18%
18%
9%
75%
54%
59%
58%
83%
David Cameron
Willie Rennie
Ruth Davidson
Johann Lamont
Alex Salmond
Dissatisfied Satisfied
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Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as First Minister//Prime
Minister/Leader of Scottish Labour/the Scottish Liberal Democrats/the Scottish Conservatives?
Satisfaction with party leader trends
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Feb-10 Apr-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Oct-12
Alex Salmond Johann Lamont Ruth Davidson Willie Rennie Patrick Harvie
50%
35%
26% 23% 22%
Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults.
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• This presents the topline results from Scotland
• Results are based on a survey of 1,003 respondents
conducted by telephone
• Fieldwork dates: 8th October – 15th October 2012
• Data are weight by: age, sex and working status using
census data; tenure using SHS data; and public-private
sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly
Public Sector Employment series data
• Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to
computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of
“don‟t know” categories
• Results are based on all respondents (1,003) unless
otherwise stated
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Thank you [email protected] | 0131 240 3269
[email protected] | 0131 240 3264 18.10.12
This work was carried out in accordance with the requirements of the international quality standard for market research, ISO 20252:2006. © Ipsos MORI
@IpsosMORIScot