Scotland’s Food System at a Crossroads

David Atkinson

Food and Drink Leadership Forum

& ACTS Rural Committee

Food Sovereignty: What is It?

• Food at the heart of Policy• A clear view of where our food will come from

now and in the future i.e. Climate change type issues are embedded, leading to food security.

• An appropriate infrastructure which makes food accessible and affordable to all.

• It does NOT require all food to be home produced or a production and distribution network under state control

Food Security

Global climate change

Energy Policy effects on production and transport

Fair Trading policies: home and international

Dependable and diverse local production

Available options within the food chain

Food safety

National priorities

WaterSecurity

Chatham House Pressures

• Population: Increase demand from a rapidly rising world population

• Diet: The effect of “nutrition translation.” • Energy: Energy dependence of current systems. • Land: The potential to increase the amount of land

available to agriculture is limited • Water: Increase in global stresses on available water.• Climate Change: Predicted that world agricultural GDP

output will decline by 16% by 2020. • Labour: a decreased rural population able to produce

primary produce.

Chatham House Predictions

• The absolute level of food production worldwide is rising. • Despite this, food prices have been rising • Although absolute food production is rising, world

population growth is outstripping the increase. • Measured in terms of days of consumption, world grain

stocks have now fallen to half the levels of the mid-1980s

• In the short run food prices may well fall or be volatile, but the underlying supply shortfall must be confronted

• Systemic change will eventually be necessary

The Importance of Scottish Food production

• Food prices have been affected by government actions for most of recent history

• The gap between increasing world production and world population growth is decreasing

• An approach to the proportion of our food which we produce based only on economic factors would be unwise

• The aim of producing approaching two thirds of our food from our own resources would seem to be prudent

Climate change and Food security

• The impact of agriculture on GHG production

• The impact of land management• The effects of our choice of agricultural

types• Options for changing resource use and

externalities• Home verses overseas production• Impact on the post farm gate equation

Ruminant Animals

Methane

Grassland

CO2

Soil Carbon Storage

Food

Nitrous Oxide

Carbon containing inputs

Fertiliser

CO2

CO2

Fruit & vegetables Intake to double to more than 400grams per day

Bread Intake to increase by 45 % from present daily intake of 106 grams, mainly using wholemeal and brown breads.

Breakfast Cereals Average intake to double from the present intake of 17 grams per day

Fats Average intake of total fat to reduce from 40.7% to no more than 35%.Average intake of saturated fatty acids to reduce from 16.6% to no more than 11%

Scottish Dietary Targets

Meeting dietary targets by home production

Inc. person.

per year (kg)

Amount for Scotland Th.tonnes

% inc on current production

Fruit &

Veg

73 371 117

Bread 174 884 125

(Wheat)

Breakfast

cereals

6 32 30

(Oats)

Are Genetically Modified Crops the Solution to Current Food Security

Problems?

GM Crop Performance

• The performance of GM crops has varied greatly between farms , farmers, crop varieties, regions, seasons.

• Institutional factors have a major impact

• Poor farmers have generally not done well from GM

• It isn’t the silver bullet some hoped for.

Some disadvantages of Climate Change genes

• Pleiotropy: The ability of a single gene to cause unintended physiological changes throughout the plant which resulting impact on yield and quality. The yield losses of bad years are experienced in all years

• Many of the gene patent applications cover a wide range of crops e.g. BASF ( US 7,161,063 environmental stresses in 32 crops

“ The biological fixation of N2 is accompanied by the energetically wasteful reduction of protons to H2 this represents a wasting of at least 25% of photosynthesis which is used for the fixation process”

Minchin, Gordon and Witty (1996)

Affordability

Trading

Income

Prices

Life style driven consumption

Acceptable / Relevant information

Local &community initiatives

Home production

15%

17%

13% 13%

12%

11%

10%

9%

8%

7%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

Poorest 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th Richest

Share of UK household expenditure spent on food and non-alcoholic beverages 2005/2006

The Contribution of the Supermarkets

• The supermarkets currently dominate the food supply market and so are key players in any attempt to reduce the price of food or to maintain it in periods of market failure. They also have a pivotal role in any approach to promoting of healthy eating.

• More affluent and better educated groups are more likely to use multiple supermarkets and less affluent groups more likely to use discount supermarkets

Access

Geography Knowledge and Values

Local & community initiatives

Consumer orientated Food chains

Access

Price and income

Life style and pressures

Significant Tensions

• The proportion of the food consumed in Scotland which should be produced from our own resources.

• The amount of our land area which should be devoted to food production

• The methods which should be employed for food production

• The potential for the expansion of organic production• Whether genetic modification has any role in the food

we produce or import.• The appropriate level of control exercised by the

Supermarket sector.• The future development of electronic food marketing

relative to the maintenance of convenience food stores