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Scion Rural Fire Research Group Activities for March - August 2013

Theme 1: Managing emerging risks to NZ’s fire hazardscape Enhance risk assessment tools that account for the effects of changing climate, land-use and demographics on potential fire impact, by incorporating fire danger rating knowledge and emerging risks to better inform fire management strategies. Theme leader: Grant Pearce Grant.Pearce@scionresearch.com

Fire weather system Grant Pearce participated along with NIWA personnel in the rural fire end-user team evaluation feedback meeting on the beta-version of the new national FWSYS held in March. Feedback was subsequently incorporated into a trial version that was rolled out at regional training sessions across the country in June/July. The new FWSYS and NRFA Fire Weather website went live on 22 August. Scion fire team members (Grant Pearce & Veronica Clifford) played a key part in these regional training sessions. Comprehensive training on the new FWSYS was provided by NIWA and Scion to over 250 end-users at 17 regional training sessions during June, July & August 2013. Feedback to date on the new system has been very positive.

Student projects Bushfire CRC student Colin Simpson (Uni. Canterbury, Geography) successfully completed his PhD in May on numerical modelling of atmospheric interactions with wildland fires. He was supervised by Grant Pearce, and together they produced three journal papers and several refereed conference papers. Colin has gone onto a post-doc fire research position in Canberra.

Wilding fire hazard This research aims to quantify changes in fire hazard associated with wilding conifer spread, as well as their current and potential future extent. A recently completed report for this NZFSC Contestable Fund project identified a number of stages of wilding spread, and reviewed possible models for predicting fuel loads and spread rates in these wilding fuel types. The report also described the current extent of wilding spread, and identified areas of potential future spread.

Transition of gorse and broom to native forest Grant Pearce completed analyses and contributed to the final project report on the Landcare-Scion SLMACC project on transition of gorse & broom shrublands to native

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forest. As a subcontractor to Landcare, the Scion fire team’s role in this project was to assist with collection of gorse & broom biomass samples from sites around the country, and to test the suitability of existing shrub biomass prediction models for estimating the biomass in regenerating shrubland with native trees present.

Smartphone applications The development of an Android-based smartphone application to run the Scion Fire Behaviour Toolkit was completed, with the software made available to industry in August 2012. The prototype version of an Apple-based application has now also been completed (August 2013). This followed the production of an updated version (September 2012) of the Field Manual for Predicting Fire Behaviour in NZ Fuels containing new models for predicting fuel loads in grass and scrub fuel types, and a new rate of fire spread model for crop stubble. A prototype fire danger smartapp has also been developed in conjunction with Tait Communications, as another mechanism for educating the public on fire danger conditions. The app uses the GPS in a smartphone to identify the nearest weather station, and then obtains fire danger information for that station from the NRFA’s public fire weather internet page. Following demonstration of the app to fire managers, consideration is being given to how best to progress it. There is interest from NZ Fire Service in aligning it with their own smartapp development initiatives, and there is also potential to expand the app to include information on fire season status and permit requirements. Fire team members hope to set up a meeting with NRFA and NZFS personnel in the near future to discuss these opportunities, and to discuss with rural fire authorities what information to include in the app on the behaviours expected of the public under each fire danger rating level.

Recent outputs: Pearce, H.G.; Clifford, V.R. 2013. Fire behaviour prediction tools for fire managers – lessons learned from tools development in New Zealand. Paper presented at the 4th Fuels & Fire Behaviour Conference, "At the Crossroads: Looking Toward the Future in a Changing Environment", 18-22 February 2013, Raleigh, North Carolina, USA. Carswell, F.; Mason, N.; Holdaway, R.; Burrows, L.; Payton, L.; Sutherland, A.; Price, R.; Pearce, G.; Corich-Hermans, O.; Williams, P. 2013. Indirect estimation of ‘non-forest’ to ‘forest’ transition. Ministry for Primary Industries, Wellington. MPI Technical Paper No. 2013/212. Clifford, V. 2013. Fire hazard in wilding conifers. Presentation to the Scion, Bushfire CRC & NRFA Science Day, 30 July, Queenstown. Clifford, V.; Paul, T.; Pearce, G. 2013. Quantifying the change in high country fire hazard from wilding trees – Final report. Scion, Christchurch. Scion Client Report (NZFSC Contestable Fund) No. 19672. 65 p.

Clifford, V.; Pearce, G. 2013. Rural fire apps for smart devices. Presentation to the Rural Fire National Incident Management Team (NIMT) Annual Workshop, 22 May. Pearce, G. 2013. New national Fire Weather System. Presentation to the Rural Fire National Incident Management Team (NIMT) annual Workshop, 22 May. Miville, B.; Pearce, G.; Clifford, V.; Pardy, T. 2013. Fire Weather System training. Regional training sessions on the new national Fire Weather System, presented to Rural Fire Managers by NIWA, Scion & NZFS/NRFA, June-July 2013: Palmerston North, 18 June 2013; Auckland, 20 June 2013; NZ Fire Service Southern Comcen, Christchurch, 20 June 2013; Christchurch, 21 June; NZ Fire Service Northern Comcen, Auckland, 24 June 2013; Wellington, 25 June 2013; NZ Fire Service, Central Comcen, Wellington, 26 June 2013; Rotorua, 3 & 4 July 2013; Napier/Hastings, 9 July 2013; Christchurch, 11 July 2013; NZ Fire Service, Southern Comcen, 11 July 2013; Nelson, 12 July 2013; Dunedin, 16 July 2013;

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Whangarei, 22 July 2013; Invercargill, 6 August 2013. Simpson, C.C.; Pearce, H.G.; Sturman, A.P.; Zawar-Reza, P. (accepted). Verification of WRF modelling of fire weather conditions for the 2009/10 New Zealand fire season. Accepted for publication in International Journal of Wildland Fire, May 2013. Simpson, C.C.; Pearce, H.G.; Sturman, A.P.; Zawar-Reza, P. (submitted). Behaviour and utility of fire weather indices in the 2009/10 New Zealand fire season. Submitted to International Journal of Wildland Fire.

Simpson, C.; Sturman, A.; Zawar-Reza, P.; Pearce, G. 2013. Fire weather associated with a foehn event in the South Island, New Zealand. Poster abstract accepted for the AFAC/Bushfire CRC Conference, Melbourne, 2-5 September 2013.

Simpson, C.; Pearce, G.; Clifford, V. 2013. Mesoscale simulation of atmospheric processes relevant to the Mount Cook Station fire in January 2008. Abstract submitted for presentation at the 20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM2013) (Session A3. Modelling of bushfire dynamics, fire weather, impact and risk), 1-6 December 2013, Adelaide, South Australia. .

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Theme 2 - Enhanced community resilience Enhance community awareness and understanding of rural fire risk to improve at-risk communities’ readiness to respond to, and recover from, rural fire events. Theme leader: Lisa Langer Lisa.Langer@scionresearch.com

Effective communication project Lisa Langer and contractor Mary Hart completed NVivo coding and began analysis of the data for the interviews and focus groups from the three New Zealand case studies and national interviews for the Effective Communication project. This has the dual role of providing the input to develop effective communication strategies in NZ for the Bushfire CRC Effective Communication contract, and a cross-country comparison with Portugal for publication in a paper with Maria Colaço from ISA in Lisbon. Data from the interviews will also be used later to investigate broader community resilience issues.

Tranzfor exchange Lisa Langer completed 3 weeks research with Maria Colaço, the Centre of Applied Ecology Seminar, Superior Institute of Agronomy (ISA), Technical University of Lisbon, Portugal under the Tranzfor programme collaborating on research on Effective communication: wildfires and communities. They analysed data they collected in three case studies in their respective countries, prepared conference presentations and drafted the framework for a joint paper. The collaboration has been very fruitful with Lisa’s Effective communication and community resilience project repeated using the same methodology in 3 case study areas in Portugal. It has led to three joint conference presentations in three different countries and a joint paper wil be further developed when data analysis has been completed in Portugal.

Māori use of fire Lisa Langer supervised Scion-sponsored Māori summer intern student Grace Stone, who undertook a 12-week study investigating Māori traditional and present use of fire. Grace interviewed kaumatua in the central North Island to gain greater understanding of Māori and their use of fire from a historical perspective and how this has evolved over time. The study resulted in a co-authored paper, entitled “Te ahi i te ao Māori: Fire use - Māori in rural areas in Aotearoa, New Zealand”, which has been submitted to the MAI Journal: A New Zealand Journal of Indigenous Scholarship.

Wildfire prone areas The proposal for the 2013/14 NZFSC Contestable Funding Round to define and map wildfire prone areas was successful. This project aims to define wildfire/bushfire prone areas in the NZ context, and to develop a method to map these high fire risk areas, potentially by building on the existing Wildfire Threat Analysis methodology. With a particular focus on the rural-urban interface, the formal definition and identification of

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areas with high risks to life and property will better enable development of mitigation strategies for these areas, including appropriate planning and building controls. The project was started with a workshop at the 2013 Chairpersons Conference in Napier to gain input into definition of what constitutes a Wildfire Prone Area in the NZ context. This definition will be refined over coming months, and used to develop a methodology that will be trialled for a case study area, and evaluated in a final report by June 2014. Lisa and Grant have prepared the first progress report for this project and submitted it to the NZ Fire Service Commission. In addition, Grant provided input into a NRFA workshop session on fire prevention, which included discussions on improvements to communication of fire danger warnings and the national fire publicity campaign.

Recent outputs: Langer, E.R.; Hart, M. 2013. Effective wildfire communication in NZ: preliminary findings. Presentation to the Rural Fire Research Advisory Committee, 5th March, Christchurch. Langer, L. 2013. NZ community effectiveness case studies. Presentation to the Forest and Rural Fire Association of New Zealand (FRFANZ) Annual Conference, 31 July-2 August 2013, Queenstown. Conceição Colaço, M.; Langer, E.R. 2013. Communities wildfire preparedness: A cross country study from Portugal and New Zealand. Paper presented at the 7º Congresso Florestal Nacional, Florestas - Conhecimento e Inovação, 5-8 June 2013, Vila Real and Bragança, Portugal. Conceição Colaco, M.; Langer, E.R. 2013. How do communities perceive the risk of wildfires and prepare for it? A cross country study from Portugal and New Zealand. Oral paper presented at the 7th World Environmental Education Congress, 9-14 June 2013, Marrakech, Morocco. Langer, E.R.; Colaco, M.; Hart, M. 2013. Wildfires and communities - Two way risks and vulnerabilities in planted forests in southern Europe & NZ. Presented at the 3rd International Congress on Planted Forests - Workshop on Vulnerability and Risk Management in Planted Forests, 16-18 May 2013, Bordeaux, France.

Stone, G.; Langer, L. 2013. Te ahi i te ao Maori – Maori and their use of Fire: a Maori perspective. Presentation to the Rural Fire Research Advisory Committee, 5th March, Christchurch.

Stone, G.; Langer, E.R. (submitted). Te ahi i te ao Māori: Fire use by Māori in Aotearoa, New Zealand. Submitted to MAI Journal: A New Zealand Journal of Indigenous Scholarship, July 2013. Pearce, G.; Langer, L. 2013. Defining Wildfire Prone Areas in NZ. Presentation and Workshop session to the NRFA Regional Rural Fire Committee Chairpersons Conference, 11-12 June 2013, Napier. Pearce, G.; Langer, L. 2013. Defining Wildfire Prone Areas in the NZ context. Presentation to the Rural Fire Research Advisory Committee, 27 August 2013, Christchurch.

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Theme 3 - Use of fire as a land management tool Develop knowledge and tools to support the safe and effective use of fire as a land management tool while ensuring protection of important biodiversity values and vulnerable ecosystems from both wildfires and land management burning. Theme leader: Veronica Clifford Veronica.Clifford@scionresearch.com

Fire as a land management tool project Following completion of the pilot trial of 20 targeted interviews to understand and identify the risks and benefits of using fire as a land management tool in NZ, a more detailed national survey has been developed to establish the extent of these perceptions and practices across the country. This main survey has been tested with a small group of participants from different stakeholder groups, and planning is underway for a staged roll-out over coming months.

Experimental burns Fire team members collected data on fire behaviour and smoke column development associated with a series of burns during May and June in the Waihopai Valley near Blenheim. The burns were undertaken for pre-planting site preparation by Ernslaw One and assisted by Rural Fire Authority personnel. Specific experimental sites were instrumented to collect data on fire behaviour and smoke plume rise. It is difficult to get research burn opportunities in complex terrain to study smoke and atmosphere interactions, and the data collected will be used to evaluate the suitability of the US BlueSky Smoke Modelling Framework for use in NZ. The Waihopai burns were also the catalyst for establishing new linkages with the University of Canterbury’s Geography Department around measurement of atmospheric conditions at experimental burns. The Geography Department provided personnel and equipment that enabled detailed measurements to be made of temperature and wind profiles through the atmosphere using SODAR (SOnic Detection And Ranging for wind) and RASS (Radio Acoustic Sounding System for temperature/stability) equipment. This equipment will potentially be available for future burn experiments as well.

BlueSky smoke modelling CSIRO researchers, located in Melbourne, Australia, funded a visit for Tara Strand to present the US BlueSky Framework and its capabilities to their research group. There is an ongoing funded study to implement a BlueSky-like capability within Victoria. Tara also participated in their end-user workshop where she presented current BlueSky Framework capabilities. There is potential for this to develop into producing a smoke model framework for Australasia.

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Recent outputs: Bayne, K; Ballie, B; Clifford, V. 2013. Fire as a Land Management Tool project - pilot interview findings. Presentation to the Scion, Bushfire CRC & NRFA Science Day, 30 July, Queenstown. Goodrick, S.; Achtemeier, G.; Larkin, N.; Liu, Y; Strand, T. 2013. Modeling smoke transport from wildland fires: a review. International Journal of Wildland Fire 22(1): 83-94. Larkin, N. K., Raffuse S. M., and Strand T. M. Wildland fire emissions, carbon, and climate: U.S. emissions inventories. Accepted for publication in Forest Ecology and Management. Strand, T.; Rorig, M.; Lamb, B.; Cruz-Chercon, V.; Thistle, H. Mickler, B.; Clements, C.; Seto, D.; Bian, X.; Solomon, R.; Larkin, N. Evaluating models for low intensity wildland burning using comprehensive observations from four prescribed fires. Paper presented at the 4th Fuels & Fire Behaviour Conference, "At the Crossroads: Looking Toward the Future in a Changing Environment", 18-22 February 2013, Raleigh, North Carolina, USA.

Strand, T.; Kepert, J.; McCaw, L.; Fawcett, R.; Meyer, M.; Pearce, G.; Clifford, V.; Larkin, N. Smoke management in Australia and New Zealand: application of the BlueSky Modelling Framework. Poster presented at the 4th Fuels & Fire Behaviour Conference, "At the Crossroads: Looking Toward the Future in a Changing Environment", 18-22 February 2013, Raleigh, North Carolina, USA. Strand, T. 2013. Potential uses for future smoke tools. Presentation to the Rural Fire National Incident Management Team (NIMT) annual Workshop, 22 May. Strand, T. 2013. Development of an Australasian "BlueSky" smoke modelling framework. Presentation to the Scion, Bushfire CRC & NRFA Science Day, 30 July, Queenstown.

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Theme 4 - Improving safety and capacity in the rural fire workforce Develop tools and best practice guidelines to maximise the safety and productivity of the workforce. Theme leader: Richard Parker Richard.Parker@scionresearch.com

Resource productivity Richard Parker commenced fire manager expert interviews to collect data on fire suppression resource productivity. Data will be used to develop a calculator for determining suppression resource requirements based on fireline construction rates. Richard also investigated the potential to access information on suppression resource productivity and effectiveness from fire logs.

Deep smarts project This project aims to collect knowledge and best practice on NZ fire management activities for use in training materials. Veronica Clifford continued discussions with Dave Thomas (Renoveling, US) during the 2013 FRFANZ Conference on how to utilise video footage from the NZ Deep Smarts fire manager interviews. Presentations on the NZ Deep Smarts project were made at both the pre-FRFANZ Science Day and FRFANZ Conference.

Firefighter fitness The proposal for the 2013/14 NZFSC Contestable Funding Round to investigate minimum fitness standard for rural fire volunteers was successful. This project will determine the uptake of the current optional national fitness guidelines for volunteer rural firefighters and compare fitness requirements with actual firefighting tasks. This project started in July 2013 with the development of a literature review of fitness tests and their applicability to rural fire.

Future technologies Richard Parker has been liaising with Tait Communications and the University of Canterbury over 2013/14 summer student scholarships. This has resulted in 4 potential Tait-sponsored student projects around UAV aerial hotspotting, and data mining and visualisation of fire ground communications to establish situational awareness. Three University of Canterbury scholarships projects (around fuel type mapping, the helmet-mounted firefighter instrumentation ensemble, and fire weather data collection) are also planned.

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Recent outputs: Clifford, V.; Thomas, D.; Pearce, G. 2013.NZ rural fire Deep Smarts. Presentation to the Rural Fire Research Advisory Committee, 5th March, Christchurch. Thomas, D. 2013. Perspective on NZ fire manager “Deep Smarts” interviews. Presentation to the Scion, Bushfire CRC & NRFA Science Day, 30 July, Queenstown. Clifford, V. 2013. NZ Deep Smarts project. Presentation to the Forest and Rural Fire Association of New Zealand (FRFANZ) Annual Conference, 31 July-2 August 2013, Queenstown. Parker, R.; Pearce, G.; Marberg, A. 2013. Uninhabited Air Vehicles. Presentation to the Rural Fire Research Advisory Committee, 5th March, Christchurch. Parker, R. 2013. Research on resource productivity and Uninhabited Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). Presentation to the Rural Fire National Incident Management Team (NIMT) Annual Workshop, 22 May.

Parker, R. Potential applications of UAVs in rural fire. Presentation to the Scion, Bushfire CRC & NRFA Science Day, 30 July, Queenstown. Parker, R. 2013. Firefighter fitness & safety research. Presentation to the Forest and Rural Fire Association of New Zealand (FRFANZ) Annual Conference, 31 July-2 August 2013, Queenstown. Parker, R.; Clifford, V.; Bayne, K. 2013. What is the minimum fitness standard for rural fire volunteers? Presentation to the Rural Fire Research Advisory Committee, 27 August 2013, Christchurch.

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Other News: Awards The presentation by Grant Pearce to the 4th Fire Behaviour & Fuels Conference in Raleigh, North Carolina in February on lessons learned from NZ’s fire behaviour tools developments was subsequently awarded the Best Applied Paper by the International Association for Fire Safety Science. This international recognition demonstrates the practical value of these fire behaviour tools, the high quality of the underpinning science, and the international value of lessons learned during their development. The Fire Team was nominated by Scion to apply for the Prime Minister's Science Prize. This is a prestigious achievement, and again recognises the combination of high quality science and end-user targeted, outcome-driven research being undertaken by the programme.

FRFANZ conference Fire team members made 4 presentations on research activities to the pre-FRFANZ Scion/Bushfire CRC/NRFA Research Workshop on 30 July 2013 in Queenstown. A further 4 presentations were also made during the main FRFANZ conference itself on 31 July-1 August.

Industry Grant Pearce attended a meeting coordinated by the NRFA held on 20 May on the need to review the current NZ Wildfire Threat Analysis System (NZWTAS) methodology. Scion fire research personnel have been key members of the end-user project team involved in developing the original NZWTAS methodology produced in the 1990s, and in providing ongoing advice on technical improvements. The outcome of this meeting was that a project to review and update the NZWTAS will be put forward to the NZ Fire Service Commission for approval and funding. There is also significant overlap with the Fire team's recent successful NZFSC Contestable Fund project to define Wildfire Prone Areas.

Courses & workshops

Grant Pearce & Veronica Clifford spent considerable time working with DOC’s Tony Teeling to complete preparations for the national Intermediate Fire Behaviour training course (US4648) presented in Auckland in May 2013. The 4-day course involved presentations by Grant, Veronica & Tara Strand as part of the contract Scion has with Telford. Unfortunately, a second course planned for September has had to be cancelled due to lack of numbers. Two further IFB courses have been scheduled for 2014. Regional fire behaviour tools training courses were run in many parts of the country during June/July, taking advantage of the travel involved in presenting the new FWSYS training. This has resulted in around 300 fire managers being trained in the use of the new fire behaviour tools and exposed to the latest research developments.

Wildfire case studies A number of significant fires occurred across the country over the 2012/13 summer months. However, disappointingly the Scion fire team were not directly notified of any of these events for either research (e.g. fire behaviour) support or data collection opportunities.

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Research team members have proposed each writing a case study on one of the significant wildfires that have occurred this and last fire season. This includes documenting safety, resource productivity, smoke or social community aspects in addition to fire behaviour models and tools validation. Data collection from some of the recent events has already begun, and visits and discussions with fire managers, fire investigation staff and suppression crews will be undertaken. If you consider you have information for a fire the team should follow up, please contact the research team.

Future research Grant Pearce received support from Scion to undertake PhD study starting in mid-2013. Scion will fund around 1/3 of Grant’s time to complete the approx. 3-year study. Grant met with University of Canterbury Geography Head of Department (Prof Andy Sturman) and obtained support in principle for his PhD study, likely around NZ fire climate description, predicting seasonal severity and further improving estimates of future fire risk with climate change. Scion received confirmation of the inclusion of Fire as a key theme in the “Nature’s Challenges” National Science Challenge. This presents opportunities for Scion's fire team, including enhanced collaborations with the Natural Hazards Platform which includes NIWA and GNS. Grant Pearce and Tara Strand attended the “Nature’s Challenges” workshop held by MBIE in Wellington in June, and have had subsequent discussions with Kelvin Berryman from GNS, who leads the Hazards Platform, and Sarah McDermott from MBIE.

Recent outputs: Moore, J.; Pearce, G.; Bulman, L.; Chikumbo, O.; Payn, T. 2013. Managing risks in New Zealand’s planted forests. Presented at the 3rd International Congress on Planted Forests - Workshop on Vulnerability and Risk Management in Planted Forests, 16-18 May 2013, Bordeaux, France. Pearce, G. 2013. Scion Rural Fire Research Update – introduction. Presentation to the Rural Fire National Incident Management Team (NIMT) Annual Workshop, 22 May. Pearce, G. 2013. NZ research update. Presentation to the Forest and Rural Fire Association of New Zealand (FRFANZ) Annual Conference, 31 July-2 August 2013, Queenstown. Pearce, G. 2013. Vegetation fire science; and Wildfire risk management. Lectures presented as part of Fire Engineering Course, Introduction to Fire Engineering (ENGR403), University of Canterbury, 9 May 2013. Pearce, G. 2013. Vegetation fire science; and Wildfire risk management. Lectures presented as part of Forestry Biology

(FORE218) course, University of Canterbury, 22 & 24 May 2013. Strand, T.; Pearce, G. 2013. Modelling rural fires. Presentation as part of the Electrical & Computer Engineering Department Seminar series, 22 March 2013, University of Canterbury, Electrical & Computer Engineering Department, Christchurch. Telford & Scion. 2013. Demonstrate knowledge of vegetation fire behaviour (NZQA US4648), Auckland, 27-30 May2013. Telford – a Division of Lincoln University, and Scion Rural Fire Research Group. Pearce, G.; Clifford, V. 2013. Fire behaviour tools training. Training sessions presented to: Northern South Island Rural Fire Managers, Christchurch, 21 June 2013; Central North Island Rural Fire Managers, Rotorua, 3 & 4 July 2013; Eastern Rural Fire Managers, Napier, 9 July 2013; Canterbury Rural Fire Managers, Rotorua, 11 July 2013; Northland/Auckland Rural Fire Managers, Whangarei, 22 July 2013. Clifford, V. 2013. DOC secondment. Presentation to the Rural Fire Research Advisory Committee, 27 August 2013, Christchurch.

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For further information please contact:

Richard Parker Office: 03 364 2949 richard.parker@scionresearch.com Cell: 027 290 6964

Grant Pearce grant.pearce@scionresearch.com Cell: 027 471 2840

Or visit the What’s New page using the link: www.scionresearch.com/fire At the What’s New page you can also sign up for email alerts if you would like to receive emails when there is news from the Rural Fire Research group