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Scientific Information for Sound Scientific Information for Sound Agricultural Decision Making – Agricultural Decision Making –

Food and Fertilizer Food and Fertilizer

Upendra SinghUpendra SinghSenior Scientist - Systems ModelerSenior Scientist - Systems Modeler

Resource Development DivisionResource Development Division

and and

Feisal BeigFeisal BeigSenior Specialist - MarketingSenior Specialist - MarketingMarket Development DivisionMarket Development Division

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GoalsGoals

Maintaining and improving soil fertility to meet Maintaining and improving soil fertility to meet food demands of growing population.food demands of growing population.

Increasing the productivity of the land currently Increasing the productivity of the land currently under production to avoid encroaching on under production to avoid encroaching on wilderness areas.wilderness areas.

Mitigating climate change by improved use Mitigating climate change by improved use efficiencies/reduced environmental hazards.efficiencies/reduced environmental hazards.

Improving livelihoods of farmers.Improving livelihoods of farmers. Improving human nutrition.Improving human nutrition. Unbiased information systems. Unbiased information systems.

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Industry ResponseIndustry Response

ProductsProducts1.1. Vast majority of crop nutrition products exist Vast majority of crop nutrition products exist

in forms that have remained largely in forms that have remained largely unchanged for a half-centuryunchanged for a half-century

2.2. Unlike traditional commodity products, new Unlike traditional commodity products, new “knowledge base” products incorporate “knowledge base” products incorporate extensive research and have characteristics extensive research and have characteristics that are protected by intellectual property that are protected by intellectual property rules. E.g. “smart” release, bio-fertilizers, rules. E.g. “smart” release, bio-fertilizers, “enriched” organic, anti-explosives, low Cd “enriched” organic, anti-explosives, low Cd P fertilizers, biotechnology componentsP fertilizers, biotechnology components

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Industry ResponseIndustry Response

Production TechnologyProduction Technology1.1. Cost consideration Cost consideration 2.2. Energy Use (in last 15 years from 10 to 8 Energy Use (in last 15 years from 10 to 8

MWh per ton ammonia produced)MWh per ton ammonia produced)

3.3. Greenhouse gas emission (NGreenhouse gas emission (N22O, CFC): O, CFC):

Signatory on UNEP International Signatory on UNEP International Declaration on Cleaner ProductionDeclaration on Cleaner Production

4.4. “Clean air” – NH“Clean air” – NH33, SO, SO22, F, F22

5.5. Environmental creditsEnvironmental credits6.6. Designs, databases – competitive, regulateDesigns, databases – competitive, regulate

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Best Available Technique (BAT) Assessment, Best Available Technique (BAT) Assessment,

Cost vs. Benefit ConsiderationsCost vs. Benefit Considerations

Low Cost OptionsCost vs Benfit +ve

Amount of Emission Abated

Cos

t

Limit of CostEffectiveness (BAT)

High Cost OptionsCost vs Benfit -ve

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Anthropogenic Sources for NAnthropogenic Sources for N22O O

Emission Emission (Kroeze, 1999)(Kroeze, 1999) SourceSource Millions t NMillions t N22O/yrO/yr

Nitric Acid ManufactureNitric Acid Manufacture 0.40.4

Adipic acid manufactureAdipic acid manufacture 0.20.2

Combustion of fossil fuelsCombustion of fossil fuels 1.41.4

Combustion of biomassCombustion of biomass 0.90.9

Manure and human wasteManure and human waste 3.33.3

Agricultural soilsAgricultural soils 6.66.6

Total Anthropogenic SourcesTotal Anthropogenic Sources 12.812.8

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Industry ResponseIndustry Response

Production TechnologyProduction Technology1.1. Cost consideration Cost consideration 2.2. Energy Use (in last 15 years from 10 to 8 Energy Use (in last 15 years from 10 to 8

MWh per ton ammonia)MWh per ton ammonia)

3.3. Greenhouse gas emission (NGreenhouse gas emission (N22O, CFC): O, CFC):

Signatory on UNEP International Signatory on UNEP International Declaration on Cleaner ProductionDeclaration on Cleaner Production

4.4. “Clean air” – NH“Clean air” – NH33, SO, SO22, F, F22

5.5. Environmental creditsEnvironmental credits6.6. Designs, databases – competitive, regulateDesigns, databases – competitive, regulate

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Research SupportResearch Support Nutrient Management :Nutrient Management :

– – site specific recommendation, site specific recommendation, precision agricultureprecision agriculture– – deep-placementdeep-placement–– control release fertilizerscontrol release fertilizers– – inhibitorsinhibitors

ImproveImprove - Productivity (Food, feed, fiber and bioenergy) - Productivity (Food, feed, fiber and bioenergy) - NUE, WUE, C Sequestration- NUE, WUE, C Sequestration

ReduceReduce- Nutrient Losses - erosion, leaching, N- Nutrient Losses - erosion, leaching, N22O O volatilizationvolatilization-- Methane (cultivars and feed additives)Methane (cultivars and feed additives)

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Research SupportResearch Support

International Nitrogen InitiativeInternational Nitrogen Initiative - - A balanced approach increase fertilizer A balanced approach increase fertilizer

use efficiency while safeguarding the use efficiency while safeguarding the key role that nitrogen plays in meeting key role that nitrogen plays in meeting the world's growing food demand the world's growing food demand

Research and extension by independent Research and extension by independent research centersresearch centers -- Developed countries knowledge base is Developed countries knowledge base is

well established well established - - Developing countries (major agricultural Developing countries (major agricultural

growth markets) less investmentgrowth markets) less investment-- Industry investment in independent Industry investment in independent research centers.research centers.

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Education and PolicyEducation and Policy

Government and FAO AdvisoryGovernment and FAO Advisory

- - Early years expertise highly valued in Early years expertise highly valued in decision-making, at both a policy level decision-making, at both a policy level

and and field-field- level level

-- Information from industry sources has Information from industry sources has been viewed with increasing cynicism by been viewed with increasing cynicism by other stakeholders, and governments other stakeholders, and governments

have have been forced to maintain their distance been forced to maintain their distance from from potentially valuable sources of expertisepotentially valuable sources of expertise

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Education and PolicyEducation and Policy

Outsourcing of agronomic research Outsourcing of agronomic research to independent institutesto independent institutes -- Increase the credibility of the results. Increase the credibility of the results. -- However, this has reduced the However, this has reduced the interaction interaction between industry decision-between industry decision-makers, makers, policymakers and researchers. policymakers and researchers.

- - This disconnect has probably adversely This disconnect has probably adversely affected decision-making across the affected decision-making across the

board to varying degrees in different board to varying degrees in different agribusiness sectors agribusiness sectors

(Regional Conference for Africa)(Regional Conference for Africa)

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Organization for Economic Co-operation and Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Agri-Environmental Development (OECD), Agri-Environmental

Indicators and Economic InstrumentsIndicators and Economic Instruments

OECD indicators focus on simple measures OECD indicators focus on simple measures such as kg hasuch as kg ha-1-1 product applied with no product applied with no consideration of initial soil conditions, consideration of initial soil conditions, climate, crop, etc.climate, crop, etc.

OECD economists often suggest taxes on OECD economists often suggest taxes on these indicators as a way to deal with these indicators as a way to deal with excessive nutrients in the environment.excessive nutrients in the environment.

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OECD Agri-Environmental Indicators and OECD Agri-Environmental Indicators and Economic InstrumentsEconomic Instruments

Ignores good science in a number of Ignores good science in a number of ways: ways:

-- Fails to address the management of nutrients Fails to address the management of nutrients from from manures and other sources; manures and other sources;

-- having no effect on the quality of having no effect on the quality of management management of the fertilizer that is applied and of the fertilizer that is applied and potentially potentially diminishing crop quality and soil diminishing crop quality and soil fertilityfertility

- - Dynamic nutrient balance.Dynamic nutrient balance.

Proposed indicators are too difficult to implement Proposed indicators are too difficult to implement in a policy framework.in a policy framework.

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Meeting Market DemandsMeeting Market Demands

Competitive producers deliver commodities Competitive producers deliver commodities that are in demandthat are in demand

What crops can be cultivated profitably at What crops can be cultivated profitably at any specified location and season at any specified location and season at prescribed commodity pricesprescribed commodity prices

ConstraintsConstraints-- 12 mil ha forest cut annually12 mil ha forest cut annually-- 40% more rice, wheat, etc without 40% more rice, wheat, etc without recourse to additional land and water recourse to additional land and water resourcesresources

DSS tools, input dataDSS tools, input data

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GraphicalUser

Interface(ArcView)

Nutrient DSS

- select target area- display base map- query nutrient information- productivity analysis- print out

NutrientDatabaseSystem

Nutrient ComponentNutrient Component

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P Dilemma in Sub-Saharan AfricaP Dilemma in Sub-Saharan Africa

P deficiency widespread P deficiency widespread

P fertilizer use = 2.5 kg PP fertilizer use = 2.5 kg P22OO55/ha./ha.

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Phosphate Rock Decision Support Phosphate Rock Decision Support System (PRDSS)System (PRDSS)

IFDC/IAEA-FAO developed PRDSSIFDC/IAEA-FAO developed PRDSS Database: PR characteristics, deposit, Database: PR characteristics, deposit,

geological, climatic, soils, crops and geological, climatic, soils, crops and economicseconomics

Identify agronomic and economic feasibility of Identify agronomic and economic feasibility of direct PR applicationdirect PR application

Link with GIS: Feasibility of mining and Link with GIS: Feasibility of mining and transportationtransportation

DecisionDecision: use local PR vs. imported P : use local PR vs. imported P fertilizer fertilizer

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Customer

Recommendations

Prediction/Diagnosis

Decision Aids

Existing Knowledge Base

Natural ResourceInventory

Databases Soil Climate Crop Inputs Output

Prices, Market TrendsDistribution, ConsumptionProduction, Import, Export

Inputs OutputsFertilizersPesticides

Seeds

Food cropCash Crop

PredictionResearch

UnderstandingResearch

EnablingResearch

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Components of Integrated Components of Integrated Decision Support ToolboxDecision Support Toolbox

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• Soil profile data bases (national, FAO) • Climate data (global climate change models, climate

forecast)• Remote sensing data• Crop simulation models, expert knowledge (post-

harvest handling, processing) and GIS• Market information system (inputs, outputs (crops),

cash and futures market data, credits, loans)• Decision aids for economic and impact assessment

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DSS ResponseDSS Response

Food habits changing faster than Food habits changing faster than farming can changefarming can change

Corporate participation – better Corporate participation – better alignment of farming and consumption alignment of farming and consumption patternpattern

Opportunities for improvement in Opportunities for improvement in developing countriesdeveloping countries - - currently low productivity but low currently low productivity but low

labor = globally competitivelabor = globally competitive

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Selected DSS UsersSelected DSS Users

Crop InsuranceCrop InsuranceData miningData mining-- Discovery (conditional logic, Discovery (conditional logic, affinities and associations, etc)affinities and associations, etc)- - Predictive Modeling (probabilities Predictive Modeling (probabilities

and forecasts)and forecasts)-- Forensic Analysis (deviation Forensic Analysis (deviation detection)detection)Scenarios for spot checkScenarios for spot check

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Fertilizer Industry DSS UseFertilizer Industry DSS Use

Demand ForecastingDemand Forecasting (existing and future) (existing and future) Consider changes in:Consider changes in:-- demographics, demographics, -- incomes, incomes, -- purchasing power, purchasing power, -- food habitsfood habits-- cropping patternscropping patterns-- agricultural technology including bio-technology agricultural technology including bio-technology and and precision agriculture, seeds, CPP technologyprecision agriculture, seeds, CPP technology-- information technology, information technology, -- educational levels, educational levels, -- infrastructure,infrastructure,-- prices of inputs and outputs, prices of inputs and outputs, -- investments in agriculture, etc.investments in agriculture, etc.

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Fertilizer Industry DSS UseFertilizer Industry DSS Use

Demand Forecast (continued)Demand Forecast (continued)

-- Changes in markets due to a universal Changes in markets due to a universal trend trend of decontrol, deregulation, privatization, of decontrol, deregulation, privatization, introduction of open and competitive markets introduction of open and competitive markets dominated by the private sector.dominated by the private sector.

-- Changes in business brought about by Changes in business brought about by the the ease in communication, dissemination of ease in communication, dissemination of

information, etc.information, etc.

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Fertilizer Industry DSS UseFertilizer Industry DSS Use

Supply Forecast ConsiderSupply Forecast Consider

- - Changes in fertilizer technology (products Changes in fertilizer technology (products but more so production efficiencies and but more so production efficiencies and

economies of scale have changed), economies of scale have changed), -- Agroindustrial profile Agroindustrial profile

-- materials sources, materials sources, -- prices, prices, -- substitutes,substitutes,- - increase in competition, etcincrease in competition, etc

Improving the decision making process.Improving the decision making process.

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Market Society to Network SocietyMarket Society to Network Society

Easy access to informationEasy access to information Knowledge – universities, research and Knowledge – universities, research and

extension extension Purchasing power – competitionPurchasing power – competition Sales – local, export, processingSales – local, export, processing Development work – technology, Development work – technology,

health, legal health, legal Feedback and power of scaleFeedback and power of scale

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AcknowledgementAcknowledgement

Thankful for contribution from IFA on how Thankful for contribution from IFA on how policymakers in the food value chain use policymakers in the food value chain use science originating from industry and its science originating from industry and its related research baserelated research base

Dr Arvin Mosier – information on GECAFS-Dr Arvin Mosier – information on GECAFS-DSSDSS

GECAFS/USDA-ARS/UF for the invitation and GECAFS/USDA-ARS/UF for the invitation and financial supportfinancial support