Scientific and technical advances in early warning systems ...
Transcript of Scientific and technical advances in early warning systems ...
1 Istituto Nazionale
di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale
Scientific and technical advances in early
warning systems for seismological hazard S. Parolai
Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale
2 Istituto Nazionale
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Approaches There are two main approaches: Regional (or network-based) EEW systems and
Onsite (or single-station) EEW systems.
from
Satriano et al., SDEE, 2011
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EEW and rapid risk assessment
Decades Years Days to minutes 0 seconds Minutes to hours
Long Term Seismic
and landslides Risk
mapping
Long Term
Forecasting
Short Term
Forecasting
Earthquake and
landslides Early
Warning
Real time and rapid
loss estimation
Aftershock
Forecasting
Causative fault
Seismic Source
Spectrum
Propagation
Local Geology Effects
Vulnerability
Ea
rth
qu
ak
e
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Improving the tools for tackling the challenges of aftershocks and local site
response while including uncertainties.
Hoshiba and Aoki (2015):
Pilz and Parolai (2016)
Emerging questions
aftershocks Local site response
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Event estimated, compatible
scenario selected, warning Damage probability of exceedance
Lead Time: 17 sec
Lead Time: 14 sec
EMS-98 damage states
Exc.
pro
bab
ility
Damage probability geocell 58
1e-
05
1
2
3 4 5 6
1e-
03
1
e-0
1
EMS-98 damage states
Exc.
pro
bab
ility
Damage probability geocell 5754
1e-
05
1 2 3 4 5 6
1e-
03
1
e-0
1
Loss based Early Warning: pre-calculated scenarios
No Magnitude and Location estimation
Emerging questions
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from Parolai et al.,2015, SRL
Real-time building shaking
forecasting
from Parolai et al.,2015, SRL Megalooikonomou et al. 2018.
Real-time damage forecasting
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from Parolai et al.,2015, SRL
from Pianese et al, 2018
Real-time impact forecast forecasting Expert Crowd sourcing
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Toward Multi hazard approaches
Causative fault
Seismic Source
Spectrum
Propagation
Local Geology Effects
Vulnerability
Nurmagambetov (1999)
Source: Havenith & Bourdeau, 2010
(Source: Crozier, 2013).
(Source Saponaro, 2017).
Image from
http://nirutkonkong1982.spaces.live.com/)
Landslides
Ground failure and liquefaction
Tsunami
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Toward Multi hazard approaches:
not only cascading effects
Earthquakes Floods
But the same is valid for
storms…..
Grünthal et al., 1998
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New Technologies
Multi Parameter and low
cost systems Cell
phones:
e.g.
MyShake
Credit: iStock.com/tiero
Image taken from myShake web page
Juhel et al., 2018
New generation of gravity
strain meters Optical Fibers
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Conclusions
Earthquake early warning systems are still developing to better
respond to the challenges identified in the last 10 -15 years of
testing/application
A combination of EW with rapid impact assessment systems is
ongoing and should consider the multi-hazard implication of
seismic events
The new technological development might provide better solution
for monitoring and detection but we should be ready to tackle the
issue of a better real time data integration, harmonization,
analysis
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di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale
Thank You!
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di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale