Potential impacts of global climate change on freshwater ...
Science$Theme$#2 Climate$Impacts$on Freshwater$Resources ... · Climate+Impacts+on+...
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‹#› Science Theme #2 Climate Impacts on Freshwater Resources and Ecosystems Richard Palmer Kim Lutz Stakeholder Outreach and Science Planning Meeting, January 2013
Transcript of Science$Theme$#2 Climate$Impacts$on Freshwater$Resources ... · Climate+Impacts+on+...
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Science$Theme$#2Climate$Impacts$on
Freshwater$Resources$and$EcosystemsRichard$Palmer
Kim$Lutz
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Stakeholder$Outreach$and$Science$Planning$Meeting,$January$2013$
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Climate+Impacts+on+Freshwater+Resources+and
Ecosystems• Consortium+speaker,+Richard+Palmer– Water+resources+engineering,+publishing+on+climate+changeimpacts+since+1997
– Modeling+of+climate+change+on+streamflow+and+ecosystems• Stakeholder+speaker,+Kim+Lutz– Need+to+understand+the+impacts+of+climate+change+on+waterresources+and+ecological+systems
– Climate+impacts+on+the+Connecticut+River,+with+emphasis+onrelicensing
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Stakeholder+Outreach+and+Science+Planning+Meeting,+January+2013+
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Climate+Impacts+on+Freshwater+Resources+and
Ecosystems• Key+Concepts– “Warming,+and+changes+in+the+form,+timing+and+amount+ofprecipitation,+will+very+likely+lead+to+earlier+melting+andsignificant+reductions+in+snowpack.”
– “Simulated+future+surface+and+bottom+water+temperaturesof+lakes,+reservoirs,+rivers,+and+estuaries+throughout+NorthAmerica+consistently+increase+from+2+to+7°C.”
– “Climate+change+is+likely+to+make+it+more+difficult+to+achieveexisting+water+quality+goals.”
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Climate+Impacts+on+Freshwater+Resources+and
Ecosystems– “Impacts+on+ecosystem+structure+and+function+may+beamplified+by+changes+in+extreme+meteorological+events+andincreased+disturbance+frequencies.”
– “Lower&water&levels&in&the&Great&Lakes&are&likely&to&influencemany§ors,&with&multi7dimensional,&interacting&impacts”
– “…coldEwater+species+will+likely+disappear+from+all+but+thedeeper+lakes,+coolEwater+species+will+be+lost+mainly+fromshallow+lakes,+and+warmEwater+species+will+thrive+except+in+thefar+south,+where+temperatures+in+shallow+lakes+will+exceedsurvival+thresholds…”
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Water ResourcesAssessment of Climate
Impacts
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Water ResourcesAssessment of Climate
Impacts
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Assessing Climate Impacts
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EmissionScenarios
CarbonCycleResponse
GlobalClimateSensitivity
RegionalClimateChangeScenarios
Range;ofPossibleImpacts
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CascadingUncertainties
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Example+of+Assessment+Approach
• White+Basin– Basin+26– Located+in+CentralVermont
– 570+square+miles– One+of+the+mostunregulated+basinin+the+Connecticut
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Example+of+Assessment+Approach
• 112+different+combinations+of+climate+modelsand+emission+scenarios+were+selected+foranalysis
+ B1 A1B A2
2025 1.06º C42.2+mm
1.14º C42.7+mm
1.03º C39.4+mm
2050 1.55º C59.3+mm
1.96º C64.4+mm
1.85º C64.4+mm
2075 2.00º C59.3+mm
2.67º C64.4+mm
2.88º C64.4mm
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Average$change$snow$depth$and$snow$water$equivalent$(SWE)$in$the$basin$between2075s$and$baseline
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Future$mean$weeklystreamflow$projections$foreach$SRES$emissions$scenarioat$the$mouth$of$the$WhiteRiver
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Mean$annualstreamflow$andrange$at$the$mouthof$the$White$River$ofall$112$GCM$runs
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The'Nature'Conservancy’s'Connecticut'River'Program
''''
Stakeholder'Outreach'and'Science'Planning'Meeting,'January'2013'
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Restoring-a-more-natural-flowregime-through-changes-in-dam
operations---
Stakeholder-Outreach-and-Science-Planning-Meeting,-January-2013-
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Reconnecting,rivers,and,streamsthrough,culvert,replacements,and,dam
removals
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Restoring-floodplain-forests-by-resortinghydrology-and-re6establishing-native-vegetation
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Stakeholder-Outreach-and-Science-Planning-Meeting,-January-2013-
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Disaster+preparedness,+throughgreen+infrastructure+and+modeling
tools++++
Stakeholder+Outreach+and+Science+Planning+Meeting,+January+2013+
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Connecticut,River,Watershed,Study,
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Stakeholder,Outreach,and,Science,Planning,Meeting,,January,2013,
Study,Purpose:To,determine,howmanagement,of,various,damsand,water,systems,can,bemodified,for,environmentalbenefits,while,maintaininghuman,uses,such,as,watersupply,,flood,control,andhydropower,generation.
Study,Methods:Create,a,basinKwidehydrologic,model,decisionsupport,tool,that,will,allowwater,managers,and,other,keystakeholders,to,evaluateenvironmental,and,economicoutcomes,based,on,variousmanagement,scenarios.
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Progress*to*date• Ecological*summaryreport
• Hydrologic*overview*ofdam*impacted*flow
• Basin*wide*stakeholderassessment
• Collaboration*withlargest*dam*owners
• Flow*Ecologyrelationships*developedin*collaboration*withmore*than*70*experts
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• Simulation*model*(RESSIM)*compete*for*entirebasin,*validation*inprogress
• Optimization*model(LINGO)*complete*forthe*entire*basin
• SubPdaily*optimizationmodel*(LINGO)complete*for*5*hydroprojects*undergoingrelicensing
• Hydrology*model*(VIC),climate*impacted
Stakeholder*Outreach*and*Science*Planning*Meeting,*January*2013*
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Connecticut,River,Watershed,StudyRelicensing)of)FiveHydropower)facilities• Wilder• Bellows,Falls• Vernon• Northfield,PumpStorage
• Turners,Falls
Stakeholder,Outreach,and,Science,Planning,Meeting,,January,2013,
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Stakeholder$Outreach$and$Science$Planning$Meeting,$January$2013$
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Science$Theme$#2Climate$Impacts$on
Freshwater$Resources$and$EcosystemsDr.$Richard$N.$Palmer
Kim$Lutz
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Stakeholder$Outreach$and$Science$Planning$Meeting,$January$2013$
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Science)Theme)#2Climate)Impacts)on)
Freshwater)Resources)andEcosystems
Thank)you!Please)join)our)discussion:
Room
Stakeholder)Outreach)and)Science)Planning)Meeting,)January)2013)
