Science vs NonScience

7/29/2019 Science vs NonScience

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Science and Superstition(Impress Your Friends with Latin)

Why We Believe Weird ThingsLogical FallaciesCritical Thinking


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X-Files: Weird Things

UFOs and the Bermuda Triangle Ghosts, demonic possession

Bigfoot, Loch Ness monster

Alternative medical therapies

Astrology, Feng Shui, palmistry

Cults, unorthodox religious beliefs

Urban myths and conspiracy theories

ESP, dj vu, alien abduction

Why do we believe in them?What does science have to say about them?


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Why We Believe Weird Things

Because everyone else does

argumentum ad populum(many people) Because beliefs are shared by others

argumentum ad antiquitatem(tradition)

Because we have long believed so argumentum ad verecundiam(authority),

argumentum ad baculum(power) Celebrities, politicians, even some scientists

subscribe to weird beliefs, help propagate them


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Why We Believe Weird ThingsBad Logic Because you cant prove them wrong: Argumentum ad

ignorantiam(argument from ignorance)

Whoever makes a claim has the Burden of Proof

Carl Sagan: Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof

Emperors New Clothes argument:

It only works if you believe in it.

You dont have the gift (or dont cultivate it), so you cant see the

spirits.

Some beliefs are unfalsifiable (remember K. Popper?). Ex.1:

Palm reader, iridologist: You are prone to diabetes, so be careful. If you get diabetes, theyll say, See? I told you so.

If you dont get diabetes: I see you heeded my warning .

Ex.2: Recently from US cabinet official: Terrorists are going to

attack inside the US this summer.


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Why We Believe Weird Things: Bad Logic

Because they seemtrue: cum hoc ergo propter hoc(with this,therefore because of this)

Ex. Drinking green tea prevents shark attacks. I dont seeany sharks around here. See how well it works?

Fact: US counties that consume more wine have more cancercases. Therefore wine causes cancer. Wine consumption (A) is associated with high cancer incidence (B) not

because (A) causes (B), but because (A) and (B) have the sameultimate cause. Wealthier people drink more wine and live longer; livinglonger increases chances of getting cancer.

In general, many health fads seemto work because1.People who follow them can afford better health care

2.Health fanatics take better care of themselves.3.Many health fanatics are hypochondriacs

Explain these: (1) Humans with bigger shoe sizes have higherIQs. (2) Apr 07 phone survey: Mike Defensor will win easily


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Because it is easier to believe than to verify

Many phenomena poorly understood, difficult to explain Ex. Schizophreniaexplains demonic possession: collective stress

reaction(mass hysteria) explains group demonic possession

Dj vu: malfunction in dentate gyrusin hippocampus weakens abilityto differentiate between two similar but different situations

Alien abductions: delusions, or fake implanted memories

Statistical Innumeracy: We often have a poor grasp of how

likely something strange or fantastic occurs by pure chance

Ex. The Bermuda Triangle; dreams or predictions that come true;

strange coincidences

Simple explanations exist, but they can never refute a claim

Ex. UFOs, apparitions cannot be disproven


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Ghosts?

www.ghostvillage.com


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Ateneo Football Field, Feb 2007, 1AMAteneo Football Field, Feb 2007, 6PM


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Monkey FaceMonument on

Martian Surface?

Humans are

predisposed to look

for familiar patterns


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There is a Belief Industry

Because cranks (fortune tellers, cold readers, spiritmediums) can be very persuasive and skilled

Make general statements about a person: You have a

loved one living or working abroad.

Make specific-sounding statements to a group: I amhearing from a spirit whose name starts with J, like Jim or

Jason.

Make ambiguous statements: Youre not from here, are

you? Famous crackpots: Galileo, Edison

All other crackpots are just crackpots: Dingel, Escosa,

the late Ernie Walking Encyclopedia Baron


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There is a Belief Industry

Magic + spiritual content = mystical experience Cranks wrap weird beliefs with religion to enhance legitimacy

Why professional magicians are noted skeptics and debunkers:

Houdini, Amazing Randi, Penn & Teller


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Because people lie, even

people you dont expect to No reason to lie? Other than

money: boredom, fame,tourism, fanaticism

People who make fantasticclaims sound smart, special,gifted or holy

Claims from FOAF: sourceshave no reason to lie because

theyre not sure either Bigfoot, crop circles: people

continue to believe evenAFTER the hoax is admitted


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Because we underestimate our capacities to be

deceived People can be mistaken, even those who should know

better

Memories are selective, testimonies often faulty: why

courts require material evidence Delusions and hallucinations can be very real to

schizophrenics and their audience

Strange events at night: solitude, darkness, sleepywitnesses often explain them

If its on TV/newspapers/internet, its gotta be true

Michael Shermer, Why People Believe WeirdThings(2002): People simply hate changing theirminds


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Conspiracy theories: wild beliefs that persistbecause theyre interesting (e.g., Historians hide

the fact Adolf Hitler was Jose Rizals son)

. . . Or are fueled by public anger

Oil companies suppress technology that allow engines to

go 100 km/l, or the water-powered car

Big drug companies suppress natural cures

We know little about UFOs and aliens because the U.S.

Government is hiding data

Deeper truths lurk behind the JFK assassination, death

of Princess Diana, 9/11


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Cognitive Science

Confirmation Bias: Tendency to reinforce falsebeliefs by using (consciously or subconsciously) onlythe little information that supports the belief, blindly

ignoring overwhelming non-supporting data

Believers assign greater weight on gossip, anecdotes,personal experiences, crackpots than cold, hard facts

Rational Choice Theory: Seemingly crazy choicesare actually rational in that they provide benefit

Plaintiffs vs. Dow Corning breast implants: believing can

rationalize an illness, earn big payback for some

Vaccines cause autism: Believing may help find a cure


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Social Psychologist P. Leman on ConspiracyTheories: people believe that major eventsshould have major causes

Death of Princess Di, JFK assassination, 9/11 justcant have simple explanations

If big events can have minor causes, ordinary life

seems unacceptably random and unpredictable

Time Magazine (11 Sep 06): There is something

perversely comforting about the idea that some

great malevolent force is behind global events


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Because sometimes believing works thePlacebo Effect

People can get better when they believe they will:

endorphins, immune systems kick in

Doctors know many illnesses go away by themselves,with or without treatment, whatever the treatment

Because we remember better when beliefs come

true: selective memory

We tend to remember events that are remarkable

Beliefs become proven by selective memory, and

strengthened by repetition


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Because sometimes theyre true Many medicines are based on herbs used by

traditional healers Aspirin from willow bark, Tamiflu from star anise

Healers recommend conventional wisdom,which is usually right: Eat well, exercise, avoidfatty food, dont smoke or drink

Cranks know enough science to give themselves

and their ideas some credibility Feng Shui: some recommendations make sense:

Dont put a toilet over your dining area; choose a homethat faces east; stagger doors in hallways, etc.


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Because it makes life much more interesting Where will books and movies get their material?

There must be more to reality than science

How sad it would be if theyre not true (Santa Claus

effect)

Because we fearthe alternatives of not believing

Blaise Pascals Wager modified: Believing promises

immense rewards at little expense, not believing means

certain loss and winning nothing

So why tempt fate? Why mess with tradition?


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Because Were Human

Beliefs provide comfort, apparent control ofour fates a deeply human quality

Alternative therapies for the desperate

Talking to dead loved ones

Justice: sumpa, kulam or karma

Water-powered car, unlimited ocean energy fromdeuterium

Pyramid schemes, Nigerian internet scam: Youcannot cheat an honest man


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Because theres no harmin believing Most quack cures dont work, but at least they

dont make things worse

Urine therapy, megavitamins, homeopathy

Horoscopes: Reassuring, sound advice, even if

generic or trivial

Because some beliefs can have enough

unintended benefits to be promoted Ex. Animism helps protect the environment;

vegan lifestyle can be healthy


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No Harm?

You can hurt yourself Professional wrestling: Do not try at home

Judiels legacy: Agoo Dancing Sun Blindness

Amulet failure: the massacre of Lapiang Malaya, PBMAfollowers

You can deny yourself good health Prayer alone heals

Scientology: Psychiatry is fake; vitamins cure depression

Kids can die from simple health problems(appendicitis, internal injuries, diarrhea, infection)when parents refuseconventional treatment


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No Harm in Believing the Fantastic?

You can look stupid You can lose money: pyramid

schemes, excessive donations

You can die: doomsday cults

You can hurt others: basing yourchoice of mate on horoscope signs;choosing an employee based onhandwriting

Other side effects: naivet,gullibility, fatalism, fanaticism,helplessness, bigotry


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Why We Believe Weird ThingsBecause Science is Hard

Skeptical scientists sound dismissive, arrogant Believers complain scientists have closed minds

Scientists are not trained to communicate well, or rarely

have time to investigate fantastic claims

Science and learning is expensive Conventional medicine is expensive

So are books, education, culture

Scientific consensus changes all the time

Makes it hard to trust or accept scientific opinion

New findings modify, contradict, overturn old ones

Self-correction is part of sciences strength

Requires scientists to interact, stay updated, keep learning



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Why We Believe Weird ThingsBecause those who know better fail us

Media doesnt help Newspapers prefer simple catchy answers, titillate rather

than educate

Too willing to repeat claims rather than test them

RP: Popular, pro-poor, anti-establishment edge sells Governments generally tolerate unfounded beliefs

Alternative medicines are classified as food supplements,

not drugs, and are therefore tested for safety, not

effectiveness Many alternative drugs are labeled No proven

therapeutic claims but few read it

Govt. steps in only if something poses harm


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What about Religious Claims?

Conflict is really between crackpots and

fundamentalists vs. scientists i.e., Bad science vs. good science

After centuries of conflict, Catholic church and

scientists now agree on many fronts Even the Vatican relies on science: evolution, cosmology,testing miracles and claims (e.g. Shroud of Turin)

However, religious authorities often tolerate some popular

unfounded beliefs if they reinforce faith Remaining sources of conflict: usesof S&T

Beyond Science: human lifes meaning and purpose


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Thinking Clearly

Have faith in science and common sense Read good books, be informed, seek many sources

Apply Occams Razor: among many possible

explanations, the simplestis most likely to true If a fantastic claim is too good to be true, its false

Be a skeptic: Life is no less exciting, special,

purposeful, or mysterious without delusions

Science vs NonScience

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