SCIENCE, the first MyOcean pillar:

current and next R&D drivers

P. Brasseur, CNRS, MyOcean-2 R&D

Pierre.Brasseur@legi.grenoble-inp.fr

MyOcean2 UW2014 – Lisbon – 19th June

In this talk …

• The 4 « Grand Scientific Challenges » for MyOcean, as defined in 2010 (MyOcean Science Days 2010) – Seamless modelling from open ocean to regional seas

– Model/observations intertwining

– Coupling with sea-ice, rivers, atmosphere (waves) and biology

– Verifying, validating and estimating uncertainties on products

• Status and evolution of these R&D drivers in 2014

• A vision to be shared for +2020: first elements

• MyOcean Science Days 2014: an Open Science Conference on Operational Oceanography to « reshape » these drivers

Scientific foresight exercices :

inputs to build the post-2020 vision

• GODAE OceanView international conference, Baltimore 2013 (proceedings to be pulished in a special issue of Operational Oceanography)

• EuroGOOS SAWG white paper, to be revised in 2014

• 2014 NEMO white paper, final version to be published soon

• MyOcean-2 R&D internal scientific review

• CNES 2014-2020 space science conference, La Rochelle 2014

• French scientific prospective on operational oceanography (http://www.mercator-ocean.fr/science/gmmc/Prospective-Oceanographie-Operationnelle)

• …

• Output of this UW2014

• MyOcean Science Days 2014

… the good time for users to raise new R&D needs and piorities!

• 2010 vision: toward a unified modelling approach for ocean essential state variables in global ocean and regional seas

• 2014 status: NEMO adopted as the reference core modelling framework in most regions

Grand challenge # 1

Seamless modelling from open ocean to regional seas

Physical Ocean Modelling

2013 development plan, still up-to-date

• 2010 vision: toward a unified modelling approach for ocean essential state variables in global ocean and regional seas

• 2014 status: NEMO adopted as the reference core modelling framework in most regions

• 2020 target: NEMO consortium white paper, a projection of state-of-the-art modelling platform for the next 10 years, consistent with OO for global, regional and coastal needs a) Compliance with massively parallel computing architectures

b) Target effective resolution in the kilometric range

c) Strategy for assimilation, BGC and sea-ice modelling to be pursued

d) Multi-scale capability based on AGRIF

Grand challenge # 1

Seamless modelling from open ocean to regional seas

Exemple of regional dowscaling: the

Solomon sea at 1/36°

Sub-mesoscale resolving + vertical fluxes

• Downscaling techniques well mastered (one-way regional + two-way nesting)

• Tools available: AGRIF • Can be routinely implemented in regions

of interest, e.g. for Rapid Environmental Assessment needs

Djath et al., 2014

GLObal 1/12° system, no tides

IBI 1/36° system, incl. tides

Effective today: downscaling/embedding

Upscaling/downscaling issues: - different space/time resolution

- different resolved physics

- different atmospheric forcing

GLObal 1/12° system, no tides

NATL 1/128° system, incl. tides: technical benchmark planning in

progress

Feasible tomorrow: ocean basin at km res.

Feasible because - ocean model codes will enable effective km resolution

- massive parallel architectures will be available

- data will become available at very high spatial (SWOT) and

temporal resolution (GEO orbits)

SWOT +2020 GeoOCAPI 250

… users to expect products at much higher resolution (space-time) in the future

• 2010 vision: First principle of operational oceanography = combination of satellite/in situ data with models to deliver products

• 2014 status: The MyOcean systems are in place, assimilating an increasing amount of conventional data

• 2020 target: preparing the assimilation of new data times from space (SWOT, geostationary orbit missions, ocean colour, images) and in situ (gliders, coastal radars, new sensors etc.) that will be available within 5-7 years, synergy needed with space agencies (long-term) strategies

Grand challenge # 2

Model - observations intertwining

Which data assimilated in MyOcean

v4 version

(More details in a report by Crosnier 2014)

Impact of SWOT assimilation in IBI using

OSSEs based on SAM-2

SSH From NR(IBI36) : 09-14/03/2009

(5day-Assimilation window) J2; J1n; En Swot

SLA Score Along Jason2 tracks : FreeSim OSSE1 OSSE2

5930

Benkiran et al., 2014

Two types of orbits for Earth observation satellites, polar orbiting and geostationary. Polar-orbiting satellites

typically operate at an altitude of around 800 km, with a revisit time of 2-3 days, whereas geostationary

satellites operate in time scales of hours, which could theoretically provide data on the diurnal variation in

phytoplankton abundance and productivity.

Geostationary - GOCI Polar-orbiting

Ocean colour missions: present and future

Use of ocean colour combined with altimetry to refine horizontal circulation estimates at eddy scales

Gaultier et al., 2013 … new breakthrough in DA required to

benefit from future data types

• 2010 vision: toward a “marine system” approach, connecting or interfacing the liquid ocean with other relevant components

• 2014 status: good connections established with marine ecosystems/biogeochemistry and atmospheric communities, should be preserved

• 2020 target: consolidate the coupling and connect with new communities, e.g. hydrology and land experts

Grand challenge # 3 Coupling with sea-ice, rivers, atmosphere (waves) and biology

2014: MyOcean2 R&D WP connected to

4 (+1) external R&D projects

Science & Technology Evolution

WP 19

Leader: HZG

Scientific strategy definition

and planning

WP 19.1

Leader: HZG

NEMO developments and

applications

WP 19.2

Leader: HZG

Observations, data

assimilation and

uncertainties

WP 19.3

Leader: CNRS

Coupled forecasting

development

WP 19.4

Leader: UKMO

R&D monitoringLeader: HZG

Long-term sci.

Planning

Leader: HZG

Modelling & para-meterization

Leader: NERC

NEMO configurations

Baltic/Black Seas

Leader: HZG

Connecting open ocean

and regional seasLeader: MERCATOR

NEMO sustainable

development

Leader: CNRS

Enhancements (HFR data ass.)

Leader: HZG

Improved error

modelling

Leader: CMCC

Ensemble-based

analysis schemesLeader: CNRS

Assimilation of

satellite observations

Leader: CNRS

Global ocean-atmo-sphere initialisation

Leader: UKMO

Regional ocean-wave coupling

Leader: HZG

SANGOMA

New assimilation

techniques

MyWAVE

Ocean surface

waves modelling

OSS2015

Biogeochemical

products

OPEC

Biogeochemical &

ecological parameters

Tier 1 in MyOcean

Tier 2 in

external R&D projects (OPEC,

SANGOMA, MyWave, OSS2015)

Geostationary imager

Example of an observation system that could be developed at the mouth of large rivers, in order to study the export and fate of terrestrial particles in the coastal ocean. While classical satellite ocean color sensors only provide snap-shots, geostationary satellite measurements will provide repeated measurements to study the tidal processes involved. Field measurements, e.g. recorded by AUVs will provide data for calibration and validation of remote sensing products and also information about the vertical structures of the river plume (GeoOCAPI proposal).

Towards heterogeneous coastal ocean observing

systems, especially at the sea/land interface

Inputs from land / rivers: ad hoc

specification vs. realistic ?

E-HYPE, impact assessment done in MyOcean

… connection with land surface hydrology community (concerned with e.g. flooding and river discharges) not well established yet

• 2010 vision: To establish methods, standards and metrics for measuring the long-term progress in scientific quality and reliability of products

• 2014 status: Ensemble methods become more and more popular, with more systematic implementations to estimate and forecast uncertainty and assimilate data

• 2020 target: encourage, further develop and implement common protocols for intercomparison at international level, based on probabilistic modelling and objective approaches

Grand challenge # 4

Verifying, validating and estimating uncertainties

Today: « uncertainty » estimated from different

products (MyOcean + others)

Tomorrow: probabilistic forecasts and objective

verification methods

Ensemble spread of the eddy field (SSH) over the Gulf Stream

… uncertainty will be intrinsically represented in the products

Candille et al., 2014

Conclusions …

… at the MyOcean Science Days 2014

Venue: Toulouse, September 22-24, 2014

Objectives

To review the status and current progress of the MyOcean2 R&D activities

To enhance exchange of scientific information between MyOcean actors

To closer link the MyOcean R&D with national and other EU projects

To identify the baseline of the long-term scientific plan beyond MyOcean2

Format

Plenary sessions, invited review talks on key topics, and poster sessions

Closed meeting restricted to the MyOcean Scientific Advisory Committee

Planning

First Colloquium announcement: April 15th, 2014

Second Colloquium announcement and call for abstracts: May 15th, 2014

Abstract submission deadline: July 1st, 2014

… an opportunity for users to shape the future R&D drivers