Science, Technology & Public Policy
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Transcript of Science, Technology & Public Policy
Science, Technology & Public Policy
The CTBT
RPDS
Prologue
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Schrödinger, Annalen der Physik, 1926
Science, Technology & National Security Policy
An Exploding Wire Studying the obscure;
Exploiting the power of knowledge
Exploding Wires: Triggers of Power
Nagasaki, August 9, 1945Robert Oppenheimer Enrico Fermi
Scientific Understanding: Knowledge and the Root of Power
Fission & Fusion
Lise Meitner Otto Hahn Leo Szilard Edward Teller Stan Ulam Andrei Sakharov
Testing the Theory; Building the Arsenal
Science in pursuit of knowledgeand
influence upon policy
Other Nations, Other Testing
Nation First Nuclear DetonationUSA 1945USSR 1949England 1952France 1959China 1964India 1974Pakistan 1998South Africa ?Israel -
Craig, Jungerman, Nuclear Arms Race, 1990.
Fallout & Detection of Nuclear ExplosionsThe Collision of Politics and Technology
From 1945-1963, there are 650 test detonations of nuclear devices --most exploded in the atmosphere.
In 1963, international fear of radio-active fallout prompts the LTBT.
From 1963 to the present, a twilight struggle to ratify a CTBT ensues --and another 1100 nuclear detonations occur.
The Motivations for Testing Nuclear Weapons
•Stockpile stewardship
•Innovation
•Sustaining technical expertise
•Modernizing nuclear explosion detection systems
•Weapons effects
•Political
CTBTThe Science & Technology of Stockpile Stewardship
•The explosive core in the primary of a nuclear weapon is plutonium.
•Plutonium decays (half-life = 24,100 years)
239Pu 235U + 4He
•Alpha particles induce crystal modifications within the core that reduce its explosive yield and the reliability of the weapon.
Sidney Drell, et al, Science, 2/19/99.
Nuclear Weapons Testing: New Realities
•High-speed computing and microscopic ignition of fusion
•Growing global supplies of fissile fuel
•Underemployed weapons scientists
•Escalating regional conflict
•Global commerce
•Ease of information flow
The Comprehensive Test Ban TreatyCTBT
The purpose of CTBT is
to discontinue experiments like this one
C&E News, October 19, 1998
The History of CTBT:The Collision of Political and Technological Thought
•1956 - 1958 --Failed American Soviet negotiations
•1958 - 1961 --Testing moratorium
•1963 --The LTBT
•1976 --The TTBT
•1996 --CTBT (Yet to be ratified)
CTBTTechnology and Detection:The Hinge of the Dilemma
CTBT is a ninety-nine page document, largely concerned with establishing and operating the International Monitoring System (IMS)
IMS is a collection of 321 seismic, infrasound, hyroacoustic, and radio-nuclide sensors distributed among 89 nations and Antarctica
Each nation will establish National Data Centers (NDC) and links to an International Data Centre (IDC), for purposes of sharing data
Big Government and Big Science The Science & Technology of CTBT
CTBTListening for Nuclear Explosions
http://www.ctbt.rnd.doe.gov/ctbt/introduction/infrasound_mon.html
50 Stations
CTBTSeismology and Detection of Nuclear Explosions
Developing the algorithms and databases required for reliable detection at 167
stations
Los Alamos and Livermore National Labs
CTBTSampling the Atmosphere for Radionuclides
The Automated RadioXenon
Sampler/Analyzer
80 Stations
CTBTListening for Nuclear Explosions Under Water
The work of LLNL , The Naval Research Labs, and Scripps School of Oceanography
11 Stations
CTBTSatellites and Detecting Nuclear Explosions from Space
Fast
Forte´: Fast on-Orbit Recording of Transient Events
http://nis-www.lanl.gov/nis-projects/forte/
CTBTAssembling the Data
International Monitoring System
CTBTThe Challenges of Verification and Reliability
CTBTThe Architecture of an Agreement
C&E News, 10/19/98
CTBTListening for Explosions, Interpreting the Data
What Does it All Mean?
• 1949 -USAF aircraft capture radionuclides that announce the first Soviet A-bomb
• 1979 -Satellite optical sensors detect the signature of nuclear explosions
•1985 -Seismic measurements suggest illegal testing by the Soviets, disputed by independent seismologists
• 1998 -IMS monitoring of Indian and Pakistani nuclear tests
C&E News, 10/19/98
Epilog
A Tale of Parallel Universes
Los AlamosLivermore
Hanford
Nevada test siteOak Ridge
Aleutians
Sarov
SeverskZelenogorsk
Lesnoy
Ulam, Teller, Oppenheimer, Lawrence, Szilard, Pauling, . . .
Savannah River
Kurchatov, Sakharov, Smirnov, Khariton, Fuchs, . . .
And Global Anxiety
Snezhinsk