Science, Choice and the Image of The Future

Andrew ZolliZ + Partners April 2005

Good Afternoon!Me, in three bullet points:

• Founder of Z + Partners, a futures research and strategy think-tank

• Futurist-in-residence at Public Radio and American DemographicsEmerging Explorer National Geographic

• Curator of PopTech (www.poptech.com)

Prelude:Great Moments in Communications…

Instructions:• Wash with warm

water• Use mild soap• Dry flat• Do not use bleach• Do not iron• We are sorry our

President is an idiot• We did not vote for

him

I.Tools for Futures Thinking

How Do We Study the Future?

QualitativeScenarios

Quantitative

Modeling

GamePlaying

ExpertAnalysis

HistoricalExtrapolati

on

Prototyping(Design!)

A Few Key Distinctions

Trends: shorter-term, predictive, susceptible to ‘wild cards’, tend to be studied in isolation from one another.

Futures: longer-term, exploratory, systemic, used to understand possible complex circumstances.

Apophenia: the spontaneous perception of connections and meaningfulness in apparently unrelated things.

Common Sources?

+

II.The Image of the Future

PositiveImages

NegativeImages

Late 19th-Century View of the New York City

III.A Framing Example:

Ecovation

Trends in “Green” Thinking

1960’s + 70s

Chapter I:

“Conservation”

1980’s + 90s

Chapter II:

“Sustainability”

2000’s + 10s

Chapter III:

“Ecovation”

No company in the history of the world has ever ‘complied’ its way to greatness.

Why Ecovation?

Shifting Global Attitudes About The Environment

Source: Global Environmental Survey, 2003

Australia

A Few Parting Thoughts…

• Be storytellers, not informants.• Scenarios succeed more than

predictions.• Build simple frames for complex

contents.• Use the channels that count.• Build the network before you need it.• People feel you more than they hear

you.

Thank You!

Lots more at: www.zpluspartners.com

I love email!

andrew@zpluspartners.com