Science approach and relevance to farmers...Senthold Asseng: ARWA’s Climate Adaptation Program ....
Transcript of Science approach and relevance to farmers...Senthold Asseng: ARWA’s Climate Adaptation Program ....
ARWA’s Climate Adaptation Program Science approach and relevance to farmers
Senthold Asseng and David BowranScience Coordinator for ARWA’s Climate Adaptation ProgramCSIRO Climate Adaption Flagship, DAFWA
CSIRO
Senthold Asseng: ARWA’s Climate Adaptation Program
Western Australian mixed farming wheat-belt
Esperance
Northam
xx
xxxx Wongan Hills
Geraldton
Perth
350 300
350300
450
450
100 km
rainfalltemperature
20 million ha
750
750
The State’s $12 billion agri-food sector is vulnerable to climate change because of its dependence on climatic factors
Senthold Asseng: ARWA’s Climate Adaptation Program
CO2
lighttemperaturerainfall
Climate & agriculture
• communities• infrastructure
Senthold Asseng: ARWA’s Climate Adaptation Program
A p r i l t o O c t o b e r r a in f a l l ( m m )
1 9 0 0 1 9 1 0 1 9 2 0 1 9 3 0 1 9 4 0 1 9 5 0 1 9 6 0 1 9 7 0 1 9 8 0 1 9 9 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 3 0
R a in f a l l ( m m )
0
1 0 0
2 0 0
3 0 0
4 0 0
5 0 0
April –
October rainfall (mm)
Rainfall1960-2008 (mm/10yrs)
BoM
Western Australia
Rainfall change
10-20% loss of seasonal rainfall
Global climate change is already impacting on WA’s climate
Senthold Asseng: ARWA’s Climate Adaptation Program
Rainfall –
regional and temporal change
Global climate change is already impacting on WA’s climate
% Change in monthly rainfall 1976% Change in monthly rainfall 1976--2008 v 19112008 v 1911--19751975July AugustJune
D. Stephens and C Denby, 2009
Senthold Asseng: ARWA’s Climate Adaptation Program
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 203019
20
21
22
23
Maximum Temperature (oC)
(Average May –
October)
Year
Temperature
Temperature
change
+0.8 oC
1960-2008 (oC/10yrs)
Global climate change is already impacting on WA’s climate
Senthold Asseng: ARWA’s Climate Adaptation Program
Future changes and potential impacts
Future changes
↓
rainfall (↑
drought periods)
↑
temperature (↑
heat events, ↓↑
frost)
↑
CO2
• less crop & pasture growth• less ground cover &
more erosion risk • less waterlogging• less nutrient leaching• less dry-land salinity
• less crop & pasture growth• heat stress -
livestock • new pest & diseases• change plant phenology
• better growth!• conserve water
Future impacts
Senthold Asseng: ARWA’s Climate Adaptation Program
Continuous improvements in yields
DAFWAYears
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Average wheat yield (t/ha)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5Western Australia
“Research is the key to unlocking productivity growth in the face of climate change” Burke
Senthold Asseng: ARWA’s Climate Adaptation Program
The CAP Goal
Enterprise
Region
StateGreateradaptive capacity
&resilience
toclimate change
CAP will deliver information, knowledge and toolsto manage the risks
& capture the opportunities
a changing climate will present to rural industries and communities in southern Western Australia.
Senthold Asseng: ARWA’s Climate Adaptation Program
CAP = the Program with the capacity to assist “Greater adaptive capacity & resilience of WA’s agriculture to climate change”
Climate information & projections
Impacts
Managing risk &capturing opportunities
Education, training & communication
biosecuritymanaging
climatevariability
newfarmingsystems
criticalevents
hydrology&
nutrients
past climatepast farms
erosion
pathways toadoption
trade-offs &other drivers
future crops& pastures
crops&
pastures
FarmReady
FarmReady
Senthold Asseng: ARWA’s Climate Adaptation Program
National & International research
CAP relationships
Science Policy
Industry
NCCARF
DAFFCfoC
GRDC
VCCAP SARDI-CCDEC
DoW
CAP
WAFF
IOCI
CSIRO Climate
AdaptationFlagship
Senthold Asseng: ARWA’s Climate Adaptation Program
Questions?
What is the impact of climate
change on agriculture in WA?
What are the risks & opportunities?
Will farmers/industry be able to
adapt? What is needed to adapt?
What is the impact of adaptation?
CO2
lighttemperaturerainfall
Senthold Asseng: ARWA’s Climate Adaptation Program
First results:
Farming systems -
fallow
Senthold Asseng: ARWA’s Climate Adaptation Program
Farming systems -
fallow
Yvette Oliver & Michael Robertson, CSIROCameron Weeks, Plan FarmCaroline Peek & Rob Grima, DAFWA
Last 10 years
-0.5
0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2007200620052004200320022001200019991998
YunaMullewaPerenjori
Year
Yield benefit from fallow (Good loam) (t/ha)
Senthold Asseng: ARWA’s Climate Adaptation Program
Yvette Oliver & Michael Robertson, CSIROCameron Weeks, Plan FarmCaroline Peek & Rob Grima, DAFWA
Farming systems -
fallow
-0.5
0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2007200620052004200320022001200019991998
YunaMullewaPerenjori
Year
Yield benefit from fellow (Good loam) (t/ha)
Last 10 years
Senthold Asseng: ARWA’s Climate Adaptation Program
Yvette Oliver & Michael Robertson, CSIROCameron Weeks, Plan FarmCaroline Peek & Rob Grima, DAFWA
0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
1997199619951994199319921991199019891988
Yiel
d di
ffere
nce
from
WW
rota
tion
(t/h
a)
YunaMullewaPerenjori
Year
“wet”
nineties
Yield benefit from fallow (Good loam) (t/ha)
Farming systems -
fallow
-0.5
0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2007200620052004200320022001200019991998
YunaMullewaPerenjori
Year
Yield benefit from fellow (Good loam) (t/ha)
Last 10 years
Senthold Asseng: ARWA’s Climate Adaptation Program
First results:
Managing seasonal rainfall variability
Senthold Asseng: ARWA’s Climate Adaptation Program
Value of POAMA seasonal rainfall forecast
Longitude
Latit
ude
110°E 115°E 120°E 125°E 130°E 135°E 140°E 145°E 150°E 155°E45°S
40°S
35°S
30°S
25°S
20°S
15°S
10°S
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Percent correct
in 2 categories for May-Oct rainfall from forecasts starting on 1 May.
78% 71%Katanning
Mullewa
Nyabing
57%0$>50$/ha
… for N fertiliser decisions
Together with Ian Foster, DAFWA, Peter McIntosh, CSIRO, Oscar Alves and Guomin Wang, BoM
Senthold Asseng: ARWA’s Climate Adaptation Program
First results:
Future regional scenarios
Senthold Asseng: ARWA’s Climate Adaptation Program
Together with A. Dray, P. Perez, ANU, S. Charles, B. Bates, CSIRO
Embracing Uncertainty: Rainfall input data
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Rai
nfal
l (m
m)
200
300
400
500
600
700
2 0 1 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 3 0 2 0 4 0 2 0 5 0
Rai
nfal
l (m
m)
2 0 0
3 0 0
4 0 0
5 0 0
6 0 0
7 0 0
possible scenario
range
average scenario
Senthold Asseng: ARWA’s Climate Adaptation Program
Future regional scenarios (Katanning)
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
0
50
100
150
200
250
Katanning Regional income (M$)
Year
Together with A. Dray, P. Perez, ANU, S. Charles, B. Bates, CSIRO
possible scenario
range
average scenario
including CO2
and technology
Senthold Asseng: ARWA’s Climate Adaptation Program
ARWA’s Climate Adaptation Program
-
capacity to:
deliver science for the benefits of WA’s agriculture
…though a continuous engagement with: • ARWA partners
• farmers, farmer groups, catchment councils
• state/fed government
• national & international linkages
CSIRO