Science and the Human Exploration of...
Transcript of Science and the Human Exploration of...
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Itokawa (ISAS/JAXA)
Science and the
Human Exploration of Asteroids
1999KW4 (Ostro/JPL)
Erik Asphaug, Arizona State University
Space Studies Board, National Academy of Sciences
Fall Meeting, Nov 4, 2015
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“Out there on an asteroid, there’s nobody
to boss you around. You’re free!”
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Humans in the loop?
• Human scientific exploration is expensive and accommodates risk
• Asteroids are very unlike the Moon, perhaps more like exploring a deep oceanic abyss
• Great asteroid science can be done robotically – Why put humans
in the loop?
Asteroid Eros (NASA/APL)
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Time is money • Humans figure things out fast in novel environments and get on to the next problem – Make quick assessments,
find the cool stuff, register the ‘same old’ stuff, and redefine the science goals (fast iterations)
• Human missions may cost ~10x more, but may achieve ~10x more science in a similar timeframe as a robotic mission – If time = money then human
missions are by far the better deal!
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On Apollo 17, eight explosive charges
containing from 57 to 2722 g of high
explosive (!) were deployed at
distances between 100 m and 3.5 km
from an array of 4 geophones.
Acceptable risk
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Example: seismology at an asteroid • Honeymoon phase: it seemed so easy at first!
– In the 1990s-2010s teams in US, Europe and Japan have proposed asteroid seismology experiments
– Identified as a primary objective of hazardous asteroid mitigation (‘know your enemy’)
• Mission concepts studies expose the need for detailed knowledge of the surface conditions...
– Landers? Not easy (Philae on Rosetta at 67P/C-G)
– Pods? Must show they would land in a suitable configuration, not buried in a hole or beneath regolith where you can’t communicate and where thermal runaway fries the batteries
– Penetrators? These require knowledge of surface conditions
• Then you have to worry about what the seismometer is coupled to… – Resting on surface rocks where there is no signal? How packed is the regolith in milli-gravity?
• Lastly you have to worry about whether the source event will displace the seismic array, given that a cell phone buzzing on an asteroid would go into orbit
– Don Quixote mission concept (ESA) got derailed at this juncture
Walker & Huebner (2004) Asphaug & Scheeres (2005)
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We can learn a lot about the
NEO gravity environment
(~10-3-5 G) by studying the
microgravity (~0-10-6 G)
environments of space.
But asteroids have some
gravity, and this makes a
world of a difference for
science operations
Itokawa/Phobos/Moon are
approximately a geometric
progression (x100) in gravity
would you use lunar lander
heritage, or Hayabusa/OREx
heritage, in sample return from
Phobos?
SSB 1990
Itokawa (0.3 km) Phobos (22 km) Moon (3500 km)
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Human science activities in the ‘flexible path’
2009 Augustine Commission
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Human science opportunities at NEOs
– Search for remaining evidence of planetary
accretion and satellite formation • Sample return; petrographic and geologic record
of formative collisions
– In-depth basic studies of the most common planetary bodies in the universe
• Discover the unknown: basic exploration
– Understanding of the asteroid hazard
– Probe the subsurface conditions of small bodies as transient abodes for life
• Is transfer of life possible from planet to planet?
– Assays of resource potential in space • Lewis & Clark type missions
• Can we use NEOs to get to Mars and beyond?
1998 KW4 (Ostro/JPL)
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Rogue’s Gallery: NEOs are a random sampling
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…and the
problem of chaos
Newton: God
as the divine
clock maker,
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Earth passing through the Geminid meteor shower
average flux of meteoroids is 40,000 tons per day
(photo: F. Bruenhes)
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Asteroid Apophis:
a 300 m S-class
asteroid that gave
us a good scare
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Meanwhile, on the same
day as Chelyabinsk…
2012 DA14 was coming inside of GEO to great fanfare
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Near-Earth Asteroids are one of the richest
scientific treasures in the solar system
The potential immediacy of the impact hazard
compels us to go out and meet our future!
The Future Is Now!
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Hazard or
Treasure?
Don D
avis
• Water,
metal, fuel
• Shelter from
radiation
• Training for
deep space
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Bryan Versteegm, DSI
A Space Odyssey
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First things first:
go find them and
determine their
precise orbits
LSST
Sentinel
Spacewatch
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Human Voyages
"We'll start by sending astronauts to an asteroid for the first time in history” - President Obama, 2010
• NEOs are a sensible path to Mars – Testing human voyages in deep space
– Stepping stones to the asteroid-like Martian satellites
• We are way behind schedule to do this by 2025 – No chance for a precursor mission…
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Effort to find large targets, with excellent orbital
knowledge, with short travel time, and low delta-v
D. Landau (in Planetary Science Decadal Survey)
Most known l0w-
delta-v asteroids are
small (~1-10 m) with
inadequate orbital
knowledge to plan a
mission…
Hence the original
ARM mission
concept, to ‘bag’ one
of these and make it
accessible to
astronauts
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Early NEO Explorers
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Meanwhile… interest in Phobos as a ‘gateway to Mars’ has never waned
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Phobos and Deimos… A journey to the
asteroid-like moons
Phobos and
Deimos could solve
half the equation of
getting humans to
Mars.
A crew living on
Deimos could pilot
equipment on the
planet in real time,
to prepare habitats,
greenhouses, and
fuel/water/oxygen
factories and
depots.
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Honey, I’m home!
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No successful mission yet to either Martian moon
Image from Phobos-2 mission, which was lost
shortly after MOI (1989)
Left, artist’s sketch of what would have been
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Summary so far • Asteroids are attention-getting and potentially
hazardous; we need to ‘do something’
• Important science can be greatly accelerated by human missions – More costly, but more effective and versatile
• In-situ resource utilization (ISRU) will enable future human exploration through deep space – Water, radiation shielding, propellant
• NEOs are a logical step forwards: – The Moon is a better place to practice living on Mars
– NEOs are a better place to practice getting to Mars
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ESA/DLR
Reality sets in
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Space art by Nick Stevens Radar image 1998 KW4
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Despite appearances, most
asteroids are not mountainous:
Only 5% of Eros is steeper than 30°
NEAR Team (2000)
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Are NEOs really accessible
to humans? – Lunar-like (pros, cons)
• Airless; extreme temperatures;
dusty; disorienting
– Spinning, perhaps tumbling
– Microgravity geophysics
• Everything happens real slow!
– or else it escapes
• How would you apply force to a drill or shovel?
• Can you anchor to the surface?
• How can you avoid kicking up a dust “atmosphere”?
– Potentially unstable landforms; ionized dust…
Radar image of Golevka
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Final descent image of Eros, one of the largest NEOs (20 km, gravity
1/1000 of Earth) showing granular (electrical?) collapse in a dust pond
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Abyssal plain (5 km deep)
Underwater analogy is
perhaps better than
the lunar analogy…
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Eros: Sediment-filled landscape
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Coming In for a Crash Landing, the NEAR Shoemaker orbiter impacts Eros at 4 m/s
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67P/C-G (Rosetta mission)
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Good news: smaller asteroids have less surface dust
because the solar wind has already picked it away
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Itokawa
(JAXA/Hayabusa)
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Scale Comparison
~30 km
Eros
~0.5 km
Itokawa
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Human operations: pluses and minuses
• You don’t need an ascent vehicle
– Vesc (in m/s) equals the radius (in km)
• Milli-gravity is ‘easy’ but weird – Easier than zero-G: there is a ‘down’
• By the time you wake up, your stuff is on the floor…
– A huge rock weighs as much as a cricket, so you can move it
• But you only weight as much as a flea, so don’t get too excited
– A lander may sink/topple or be smothered in loose or cohesive dust; bedrock may not exist
• Ambient dust will be worse than the Moon – Like the bottom of a lake bed: don’t stir it up!
– Cohesive forces can dominate G-forces (like packing peanuts)
– Power concerns: dust covering solar panels, battery life, thermal…
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Practice run: ACRM & ARRM
Grab a small asteroid, or pick up a ~3-6 m boulder, and use SEP to
transport it to DRO where humans can interact with it.
Has a programmatic advantage of aligning with the path to the Moon.
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Conclusions
• Science is enabled by human exploration together with robotic exploration
• Asteroids possess resources that can enable future deep-space science missions, but they are complex objects
• Human voyages to NEOs can be aligned with the Moon-path to Mars: – The Moon is where we will
practice living on Mars
– An NEO is where we will practice getting to Mars