Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi

Alexander Sokolov

Foresight Centre

Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge

Higher School of Economics

Third International Seville Conference onFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA):

Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making

16th-17th October 2008

Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi

CONTENTS

General background

Methodology and implementation scheme

Some results

Further steps

Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi

General background

Foresight for industriesMacroeconomic forecast

S&T Foresight Scenarios

Delphi

Concept of Socio-economic Development: 2020

Strategy of Innovation Development: 2015

Strategies for particular industries

Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi

Major stages of Delphi

Preliminary desk researchSocio-economic objectivesSelection of expertsIdentification of thematic areasDelphi topics Survey methodologiesExpert panelsData analysisDiscussion and dissemination of results

Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi

Preliminary desk research

Benchmarking Russia vis-à-vis leading countries

Bibliometric analysis – the most cited experts, fast growing R&D areas (research fronts)

- QUANTUM DOT BIOCONJUGATES; QUANTUM DOTS; INVIVO IMAGING; LIVE CELLS; DIAGNOSTICS- HIGHLY ORIENTED ZNO NANOROD/NANOTUBE ARRAYS; ULTRATHIN ZNO NANOTUBES; THIN ZNO FILM

Patents – Russia’s positions by technology area

Statistics – resources and R&D capacities (personnel, research units, R&D funding, output indicators)

Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi

Socio-economic objectives

Human potential and increasing quality of labour resources

Economic development

Institutional development

Environment and safety issues

Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi

Experts

Expert panels

Experts-Integrators 20

300

Over2000

Research centres

Business

Universities

Government

Delphi survey

Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi

Thematic Areas(5-8 technology areas and 80-100 topics each)

1. Information and Telecommunication Systems 2. Industry of Nanosystems and Materials3. Living Systems4. Medicine and Health5. Rational Use of Natural Resources6. Transportation, Aviation and Space Systems 7. Power Engineering and Energy Saving8. Manufacturing Systems9. Safety10. Technologies for Society

Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi

Questionnaire and issues covered by the survey

• Importance for Russia• Time of realisation• Level of Russian R&D• Leading country• Needed policy measures• Expected results• R&D vs commercial use

Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi

Regions covered by the survey

Number of respondents

Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi

[Header]Polymers with increased mechanical strength and chemical resistancePolymers with increased mechanical strength and chemical resistance

Crystals and nanostructured metals with increased construction and functional propertiesfor transport applications

Crystals and nanostructured metals with increased construction and functional propertiesfor transport applications

Methods of creation of components for nanoelectronics Methods of creation of components for nanoelectronics

Nanostructured materials and coatings for implantsNanostructured materials and coatings for implants

Nanomaterials for urgent stopping of hemorrhages in emergemciesNanomaterials for urgent stopping of hemorrhages in emergemcies

Materials for alternative sources of energy (solar batteries; portable fuel cells; hydrogen accumulators; electrochemical and thermoelectrical cells; supercondensators et al)

Materials for alternative sources of energy (solar batteries; portable fuel cells; hydrogen accumulators; electrochemical and thermoelectrical cells; supercondensators et al)

Integration into global value chainsIntegration into global value chains

Increasing domestic competitiveness

Increasing domestic competitiveness

Resolving social problemsResolving social problems

Strengthening position on global markets

Strengthening position on global markets

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

40%

41%

31%

21%

34%

32%

Time of R&D realisation and commercial application

- Leading country

40% - Level of R&D in Russia compared to the world leaders

Expected results

R&D realisation

Commercial application

Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi

Nanotechnology and materials: expected results

1. Nanotechnology and nanomaterials

6. Biocompatible materials

5. Membranes and catalysts3. Nano- and microsystems equipment

4. Composites and ceramics

2. Polymers and crystals

Social developmentDomestic markets

Global value added chainsPositions on world markets

Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi

Time of realisation: Living Systems

Biosystems, bioanalytical devices

Biomedicine and veterinary

Cell technologies

Genome and postgenome technologies for medicine

Biosynthesis, biocatalysis, metabolic engineering

Bioengineering

Bioinformation technologies

Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi

Level of R&D vs Importance: Living SystemsIm

port

ance

for

Rus

sia

Level of R&D in Russia compared to the world leaders

Realisation time

Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi

Further steps

Finalisation and integration of results

Wide dissemination and discussion

Building S&T priorities (Revision of National Critical Technologies: 2009)

Identification of the areas for the National Innovation Projects

Fine-tuning the National S&T Programme

Identification of S&T priority areas for particular industries