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School provision review for Docklands

Stage one: needs analysis

Department of Education and TrainingFinal report

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Glossary of terms 1

Executive summary 2

1 Introduction 5

2 Stage one study areas 6

3 Planning context 9

3.1 State policy 9

3.2 Local planning context 113.2.1 Land use 113.2.2 Population growth and population profile 113.2.3 Learnings from the engagement process relating to the local planning context 12

4 Existing primary and secondary school provision 14

4.1 Primary schools 14

4.2 Secondary schools 15

4.3 Specialist schools 17

4.4 Learnings from the engagement process relating to existing school supply 17

5 Needs assessment 18

5.1 Primary school needs assessment 185.1.1 Demand forecasts 185.1.2 Primary school demand from Docklands 195.1.3 Trends in access 205.1.4 Capacity analysis 21

5.2 Secondary school needs assessment 235.2.1 Demand forecasts 235.2.2 Secondary school demand from Docklands 245.2.3 Trends in access 255.2.4 Capacity analysis 26

5.3 Specialist schools 28

5.4 Engagement findings relating to trends in demand and access 28

5.5 Engagement findings to be considered in stage two 29

6 Conclusions 31

Appendices 34

Appendix A: Stage one project methodology 34

Appendix B: Land use map 35

Appendix C: Forecast population growth for primary and secondary school aged children 36

Appendix D: SEIFA Index of Disadvantage 38

Appendix E: Total primary and secondary school aged demand 39

Appendix F: Market share analysis 40

Appendix G: Student address analysis 41

Appendix H: Enrolment demand analysis 44

Appendix I: Individual government primary school reports 45

Note: Forecasts are approximate only Appendix J: Individual government secondary school reports 51

Appendix K: Specialist school demand calculations 57

SCHOOL PROVISION REVIEW FOR DOCKLANDS, FINAL REPORT

Glossary of terms

Demand reporting units (DRUs): the areas around a school that align with the statistical building blocks (ABS Statistical Area Level 1s - SA1s) closest to that school. These are used in demographic analysis only. The DRUs closely resemble the school’s designated neighbourhood boundary.

Current school capacity: the estimated current number of students that can be accommodated within the school facilities, including relocatable classrooms.

Permanent school capacity: the estimated number of students that can be accommodated within the school's permanent teaching facilities (therefore excluding relocatable classrooms).

Local enrolment: the number of school aged students that live in the DRU of their local school and also attend it.

Total school demand: the number of school aged students either living in, or forecast to live in the DRU (see above).

Government school demand: the number of school aged students either living in, or forecast to live in the DRU (see above) attending a government school.

Market share: the percentage of total demand within the DRU that attend a government school.

School aged students: children aged five to 11 years (primary) or 12 to 17 years (secondary).

Designated neighbourhood boundary (sometimes known as a school catchment boundary) (Boundary): defines the enrolment area of a government school campus and determines the residential area for which that campus is the nearest government school. This is derived using two different methodologies depending on where a student lives:

for the Melbourne region, Geelong, Ballarat and Bendigo, the boundary is calculated by drawing the midway point, in a straight line, between the location of the school and all surrounding government school campuses offering similar education provision. The catchment formed by this boundary cuts across geographic features such as residential blocks, roads and rivers.

for any other area of Victoria, the boundary is calculated by determining the shortest practicable route by distance from residences to the school using all-weather public roads drivable by car.

Note—for a small number of campuses with restricted education provision (for example, senior secondary campuses), the designated neighbourhood boundary is determined using a different methodology.

Designated neighbourhood zone (Zone): represents the enrolment area served by a government school campus after the Department of Education and Training has approved a change to the designated neighbourhood boundary in response to pressure on enrolment capacity. The boundary of a Zone typically follows geographic features such as roads and rivers.

Victorian Auditor-General: an independent office of the Victorian Parliament, appointed to examine the management of resources within the public sector on behalf of Parliament and all Victorians.

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Executive summaryCapire Consulting Group (Capire) and Spatial Vision have been commissioned by the Department of Education and Training (the Department) to undertake a needs assessment for additional primary and secondary school provision to support the Docklands community. The assessment synthesises school planning data provided by the Department with feedback and consultation received from representatives of the local community, Council, local school principals and a community reference group.

The project is being conducted over two stages. Stage one (this report) assesses the level of need generated from Docklands and the surrounding communities for both primary and secondary school education. Stage two will consider additional data and develop options to meet the identified need.

Key issues:

Planning for schools in inner-city and established communities is complex. This analysis has identified that reputation, quality and access are key factors that a family considers when choosing a school for their child.

The analysis identifies that:

The Docklands area is projected to have significant population change and is likely to experience large residential, commercial and employment growth.

By 2031, there is likely to be insufficient capacity across the Docklands and surrounding study area to accommodate projected government school demand including a shortfall of around 4,800 primary school enrolment places and around 2,000 secondary school enrolment places.

In some locations, there are differences between projected enrolment data and the school’s forecast demand by local Demand Reporting Units (DRUs). This suggests that some families are not always accessing their local school and that some schools are attracting students from outside their local area.

Enrolment trends suggest that family choice, access, transport and school reputation impact how the network operates. In particular, the Docklands/North Melbourne area has been identified as having significant access issues. There are significant physical barriers and limited public transport connections, which creates high car reliance in accessing surrounding schools.

The reputation of a school is acting as an attractor (when positive) and a barrier (when negative) and therefore some schools within the network are experiencing more demand pressure than others.

Some schools have a high reliance on relocatable classrooms to achieve total capacity. There is concern from Council, principals and community stakeholders regarding the sustainability of this approach, as well as concern about the possible impact on non-built school facilities, such as access to outdoor areas and play spaces.

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Primary schools

Overall, the study area is expected to have a shortfall of around 4,800 primary school enrolment places in 2031.

The DRUs likely to experience the most significant demand pressures are:

North Melbourne Primary School DRU: Expected shortfall of approximately 1,500 enrolment places as a result of significant population growth. North Melbourne Primary School has enrolment forecasts beyond the local DRU government primary school demand, indicating that it is a school of choice and draws families from outside its local DRU.

Albert Park Primary School DRU: Projected shortfall of over 1,500 enrolment places. This school also attracts a large number of children from outside its local DRU indicating that it is also a school of choice.

Port Melbourne Primary School DRU: Expected shortfall of 600 enrolment places as a result of significant population growth. Port Melbourne Primary School’s enrolment forecasts are significantly higher than the local DRU government primary school demand as it draws a significant number of students from the Albert Park DRU.

All three of these schools currently rely on relocatable classrooms to achieve total capacity. Irrespective of enrolment forecasts, these schools will require relocatable classrooms to meet local DRU demand in the long-term.

This is particularly the case for North Melbourne Primary School and Albert Park Primary School that currently have DRU demand beyond their total capacity. Port Melbourne Primary School has capacity to manage the local DRU demand up to 2020 when considering the capacity provided in relocatable classrooms.

The suburb of Docklands currently lies within the North Melbourne Primary School DRU and the Port Melbourne Primary School DRU. Student address mapping illustrates that that majority of government primary school students living in Docklands attend North Melbourne Primary School and, to a lesser extent, Port Melbourne Primary School and Carlton Gardens Primary School.

Secondary schools

Overall, the study area is expected to have a shortfall of around 2,000 government secondary school enrolment places in 2031.


University High School DRU: This school is likely to experience a shortfall of approximately 400 enrolment places by 2031. The analysis indicates that this is a school of choice that draws a significant number of families from outside its local DRU and outside the study area. University High School has a Designated Neighbourhood Zone (Zone) that limits enrolments. Docklands forms part of the DRU but sits outside the Zone. Families in Docklands are able to attend University High School based on curriculum grounds however, increasing enrolment pressure generated by significant population growth expected in this DRU may limit future accessibility.

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Albert Park College DRU: This school is likely to experience a shortfall of almost 900 enrolment places. Albert Park College services a comparatively local catchment. The data analysis indicates that this school does not draw a significant number of students from the Docklands area.

Key findings

By 2031, there will be insufficient capacity across the study area to accommodate projected government primary and secondary school demand.

There are also a number of primary schools that are likely to rely on relocatable classrooms to achieve total capacity in 2031. The long-term use of relocatable classrooms will require further analysis and consideration.

The engagement process has highlighted that access and transport are factors that significantly influence which schools families attend within the network. These issues require further analysis and consideration in stage two of the project.

Recommendations

It is recommended that stage two of the project is undertaken and includes:

Investigation of options to increase school provision to support the Docklands resident community.

Further analysis of transport and access to provide a better understanding of how people move through the area. The analysis should consider existing and future provision by different modes of transport including cycling, walking, driving and public transport.

Investigation of the long-term use of relocatable classrooms on existing school sites to achieve total capacity in order to meet forecast demand.

Assessment of the impacts that potential options may have on the schools that currently support the Docklands community.

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1 IntroductionIn recent years strong population growth has seen a resurgence of student populations in many inner areas. The Department of Education and Training (the Department) is aware that enrolment pressure is being experienced by many schools within the network that support the Docklands area. There is a commitment by state and local planning authorities to ensure that projected enrolment is monitored and planned for.

Project background

A feasibility study was undertaken for North Melbourne and Docklands in 2011-12 to consider the potential for a new primary school in the area. The report canvassed three key issues, including a review of demographic need for a new school in the future, identifying the optimal form and design of an inner urban primary school and identifying the preferred locations for a new primary school.

A key election promise of the Victorian Government was to restart the planning process for school provision in Docklands by updating the 2011-12 feasibility study. The refresh was to consider updated demographic data and reassess the site options if the need for local school provision was identified.

Project scope

This project assesses the need for and viability of additional primary and secondary school provision in Docklands. The project is being conducted over two stages. This report is stage one. It assesses the level of need generated from the Docklands community for both primary and secondary school education.

See Appendix A for stage one project methodology.

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2 Stage one study areasIn line with the Victorian Government’s election commitment to restart the school planning process for Docklands, two study areas have been developed for this project– one for primary schools and one for secondary schools. The study areas were developed with input from the community and responds to access trends identified through existing student mapping data.

The study areas are based on school Demand Reporting Units (DRUs) and were defined in collaboration with the community. In some instances the DRU boundaries do not align with suburb or municipal boundaries.

The study areas focuses on the suburb of Docklands however DRUs outside of Docklands have been included to identify the schools that families currently travel to access education. It is also important to identify these travel patterns to understand the impact that a new school in Docklands may have on the broader network.

The secondary school study area is slightly larger than the primary school study area in order to represent the larger catchment attributed to secondary schools. Families living within Docklands and the student address mapping data strongly identifies a relationship to the nearby suburbs of North Melbourne, Port Melbourne, Albert Park, Parkville and Flemington to access primary and secondary school education.

Each study area has been prepared for demographic analysis and to assist in understanding trends in school access for this project. These study areas will not be used to determine future locations of new schools.

The two study areas are illustrated in Figure 1 and Figure 2.

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Figure 1: Primary school study area showing included primary school DRUs

Source: Spatial Vision, November 2015

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Figure 2: Secondary school study area showing included secondary school DRUs


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3 Planning context

3.1 State policy

This section outlines the Department’s school provision planning in Victoria. It is important context for understanding how schools are planned and how funding is prioritised.

Victorian Government Policy

As outlined in the Education State Reform Policy, the Victorian Government is committed to delivering a high quality education system. The vision for Victoria as the Education State is about the guarantee of educational excellence and opportunity in every community. Part of the Victorian Government’s commitment to becoming the Education State is ensuring ‘every community has access to a great school’.

The Victorian Government aims to provide school students with disabilities access to a range of education opportunities across mainstream supported inclusion and specialist settings. The Victorian Government has made a commitment that all newly built government schools—or schools undertaking planning works—will provide facilities to accommodate the diverse needs of students. The Government supports the creation of inclusive facilities to allow students to learn in a positive, safe and accessible environment that supports their development and encourages better student outcomes.

The Department is currently reviewing the Program for Students with Disabilities (PSD). This review is intended to increase the capacity of government schools to support and maximise the learning of children with disabilities using a family friendly, strength-based approach.

Approach to school provision planning

DET has the following key objectives when planning schools across Victoria:

ensure there is sufficient capacity to accommodate all government school students that currently live or are expected to live in a given area

carefully balance key outcomes including accessibility, viability and financial sustainability

deliver schools that meet the diverse needs of their local communities.

For many years the growth in the number of school aged children in Victoria remained relatively stable. However, population forecasts project significant growth in school-aged children across the State of Victoria. This growth is likely to increase pressure on existing infrastructure and increase demand for new infrastructure.

As illustrated in Figure 3, the City of Melbourne is projected to be the seventh fastest growing municipality in Victoria for 5 to 19 year olds between 2016 and 2031.

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Figure 3: Number of 5 to 19 year olds projected for the years 2016 and 2031 in the fastest grow-ing municipalities in Victoria

Source: Victoria in the Future 2015; Capire, November 2015

In addition to managing this high rate of growth, the Department has the ongoing challenge of managing the viability of existing infrastructure across Victoria. The Victorian Auditor-General identified a considerable surplus of 38 per cent of building space across the education portfolio1. Although this may not significantly impact existing schools supporting residents in Docklands, the long-term viability of a school is a key influencing factor when considering the development of new infrastructure.

The Department measures long-term demand for primary and secondary school by calculating the demand generated within the school’s DRU. This supports the Department’s policy to provide local access to education. The analysis in this report suggests enrolment data can sometimes be significantly different from local DRU demand.

Short-term enrolment demand is used to understand trends in access as well as school capacity, teaching requirements and funding entitlements. There are limitations in planning for permanent school infrastructure using enrolment demand given it can fluctuate over time and is often linked to the reputation of the school.

The Department manages the use of relocatable classrooms to achieve the total capacity of a school. Government policy is that capacity is managed in the first instance by using relocatable classrooms. If increased capacity is required in the long term, the development of additional permanent facilities is considered.

The Department has engaged a consultant to undertake a review of key standards and models underpinning its approach to the planning of new government schools. Project outputs will assist the Department to make more efficient and effective decisions regarding school planning and seeks to support the delivery of a high performance asset base and improved educational outcomes.

The review will examine key planning standards that inform the location, size and configuration of new government schools across the State of Victoria, as well as strategies to manage

1 Implementation of School Infrastructure Programs, Victorian Auditor-General, February 2013

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temporary peaks in school enrolments. The work involves a review of similar approaches in other jurisdictions, analysis of key demographic data, geospatial analysis and stakeholder engagement.

Prioritisation of projects

The Department recognises that the prioritisation of need across Victoria must be balanced and equitable. In order to prioritise projects, each year the Department undertakes analysis and evaluation of proposed new school projects and school upgrades to identify future need. These projects are prioritised for consideration in the annual budget process for school capital investments across the State of Victoria.

3.2 Local planning context

This section provides an overview of the local planning context for school provision in the Docklands study areas. It includes existing land uses, current and future demographics, current school provision and enrolment trends.

3.2.1 Land use The suburb of Docklands is located just west of the Melbourne CBD. The suburb is also surrounded by Port Melbourne, Southbank, South Melbourne and South Wharf. Docklands is a suburb with a mix of uses. It has entertainment uses including restaurants and shops, commercial offices and residential areas comprised primarily of high density apartments. The area has significant physical boundaries including the Yarra River and Westgate Freeway to the south and industrial areas to the west and north. The proposed Western Distributor will border Docklands to the north and may present a significant physical barrier for Docklands families travelling north. Further consideration is needed to understand how the Western Distributor may impact access for families in Docklands once a more detailed design is available.

There is currently limited open space in Docklands. Opportunities for increasing open space through the shared use of facilities should be a consideration in the planning of new schools that support Docklands.

A detailed map of land uses is provided in Appendix B.

3.2.2 Population growth and population profile The policy review has identified a range of policy and urban development factors impacting population growth in the study area.

Plan Melbourne

The Victorian Government policy to guide population growth in the Melbourne metropolitan area, Plan Melbourne 2014 recognises Docklands as a key expansion of the Melbourne CBD. The Government has designated waterfront land for both commercial and residential development. The ongoing role for Docklands and Southbank is to allow the continued location and growth of knowledge-intensive and high-skilled firms in the central city, while continuing to be a major area for tourism, retail, residential, entertainment, sporting and cultural activities. There are also a number of sites identified for further expansion of Melbourne’s CBD including:

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Fishermans Bend Urban Renewal Area

E-Gate

Arden-Macaulay

Dynon Corridor.

Both Fishermans Bend and Arden-Macaulay have been identified as having an important role in accommodating future housing and employment growth.

Population projections

The Department uses population forecasts developed by independent demographic consultants. These forecasts are specifically prepared for the Department to forecast future demand for school provision. The population forecasts take into account the latest ABS data, building approvals data, aerial photography, Victorian Government development data, as well as input from local councils across Victoria.

Projections indicate that the population aged between 5 and 17 in the City of Melbourne is expected to increase by over 15,500 persons between 2011 and 2031. This is a population increase of almost 300 per cent.

When considering the distribution of school aged children across the study area between 2011 and 2031 the areas expected to experience the most significant change in the primary school aged population are, Docklands, North Melbourne, Flemington and Carlton. With regards to the change in the secondary school aged population the suburbs most likely to experience the most significant population growth are, Docklands, North Melbourne, Parkville and Carlton.

See Appendix C for a more detailed map illustrating the change in the numbers of school-aged children across the study area.

Socio-economic characteristics

The distribution of disadvantage throughout the Docklands study areas is varied and localised. Both the primary and secondary study areas illustrate that existing DRUs incorporate diverse communities of both high and low disadvantage. The highest levels of disadvantage are evident in areas which have large populations of newly arrived communities and social housing such as Footscray, Flemington and Carlton. However, DRUs for schools in these suburbs also include areas of lowest disadvantage such as Kensington and Ascot Vale. Overall, DRUs for Footscray City College, University High School and Carlton Gardens Primary School have the highest levels of disadvantage, while disadvantage is generally lowest in the south of the study area around Port Melbourne and Albert Park.

See Appendix D for more detail regarding the distribution of disadvantage.

3.2.3 Learnings from the engagement process relating to the local planning contextThroughout the engagement process, local community representatives, local school principals and local government participants raised the following issues in regard to land use, built form and population growth:

Land use



The configuration of current land uses within Docklands can limit opportunities for community cohesion and connectedness. Council acknowledges that Docklands is still being built and developed to optimise walkability and supports a mixed-use neighbourhood.

The physical boundaries, such as roads and rail, prevent smooth links to surrounding areas where schools are located. Families feel they are forced to drive and are spending long periods of time travelling due to congestion.

The location of Docklands is in close proximity to public transport, however, there is a lack of connection between Docklands and surrounding schools.

There is a gap in the provision of quality open spaces for children, which is particularly important for children living in apartments.

Built form

Council believes that community facilities such as the library, the Hub community centre, family services and sporting facilities are seen to encourage families to move to Docklands by supporting early learning and health and well-being,

It is important that any school provision in Docklands is consistent with the Departments policy of being inclusive to accommodate the varying needs of all children.

High wind conditions and poor pedestrian connections impact how people move around Docklands.

An increasing number of families are choosing to live in higher density developments. There are a range of family household types with varying priorities for school access and provision. While some families may want to send their children to non-government schools, there is an increasing number of families looking towards government school options.

Population profile

City workers may want to access schools in inner city areas and it is unclear how their needs will be accommodated in the future.

Docklands is becoming increasingly multicultural. There is a challenge in planning for the diverse cultural needs of the community and a need to ensure all schools are inclusive of all cultural backgrounds.

Council acknowledges Docklands attracts many older, retired residents as well as many contracted professionals and service industry workers from overseas, and has pockets of social housing, all of which has influenced the culture of the suburb.

Council has identified that the population profile of Docklands reflects the absence of a local primary or secondary school. They also identified a trend of young families moving away from Docklands.

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4 Existing primary and secondary school provision

4.1 Primary schools

Government primary schools

There are currently seven government primary schools in the study area. Table 1 details both permanent capacity and total capacity of each school (which includes all relocatable classrooms), as well as existing 2015 enrolments. The spatial distribution of existing supply is uneven, with no schools in Docklands, Melbourne CBD and South Melbourne (see Figure 1).

Table 1: Existing government primary school supply

School Permanent capacity

Total capacity

Current enrolments

(2015)

Spare capacity

Albert Park Primary School 275 500 500 0Carlton Gardens Primary School 275 350 337 13Debney Meadows Primary School 350 350 88 262Footscray City Primary School 450 450 252 198Kensington Primary School 500 500 469 31North Melbourne Primary School 425 650 646 4Port Melbourne Primary School 250 725 712 13Total 2,525 3,525 3,004 521Source: DET, November 2015; Spatial Vision, November 2015

As illustrated in Table 1, there are several schools utilising relocatable classrooms to increase their total capacity. These are:

Albert Park Primary School (additional 225 enrolments provided by relocatable classrooms)

North Melbourne Primary School (additional 225 enrolments provided by relocatable classrooms)

Port Melbourne Primary School (additional 425 enrolments provided by relocatable classrooms).

It is important to note that Carlton Primary School is located just outside the study area. This school plays a limited role in supporting existing Docklands families. There was a much stronger emphasis on families accessing schools located to the north and south of Docklands for example North Melbourne Primary School and Port Melbourne Primary School. In 2015 the Victorian Government announced a major redevelopment for Carlton Primary School. This redevelopment is likely to respond to the localised development pressure expected for the Carlton area.



Trends in government primary school enrolments

Analysis of school enrolments between 2011 and 2015 shows that the majority of schools have had fluctuating enrolments with the exception of Debney Meadows Primary School. This school and Footscray City Primary School had a significant decline in enrolments between 2011 and 2012. All other schools have had strong increases in enrolments in the last five years.

The following schools have experienced the most significant increases in enrolments:

Port Melbourne Primary School (additional 268 enrolments)

Carlton Gardens Primary School (additional 141 enrolments)

North Melbourne Primary School (additional 129 enrolments)

Kensington Primary School (additional 116 enrolments).

See Appendix H for more detail regarding historical and forecast enrolment data.

Planned government primary schools

The Victorian Government has committed to two schools in the study area: South Melbourne Primary School in Ferrars Street and South Melbourne Park. These commitments are expected to provide additional capacity for around 1,000 students.

Non-government primary schools

There are currently four non-government primary schools in the study area:

Galilee Regional Catholic Primary School

Holy Rosary School

St Brendan’s School

St Michael’s School.

4.2 Secondary schools

Government secondary schools

There are currently five government secondary schools across the study area, however they are not evenly distributed, with no schools in Docklands, Melbourne CBD and South Melbourne (see Figure 2).

Table 2 details both the permanent capacity and total capacity of each government secondary school. Total capacity includes all relocatable classrooms.

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Table 2: Existing government secondary schools in the study area

School Permanent capacity

Total capacity

Current enrolments

(2015)

Spare capacity

Albert Park College 800 900 891 9Footscray City College 1,200 1,200 916 284Mount Alexander 7–12 College 500 500 304 196Princes Hill Secondary College 900 900 869 31University High School 1,350 1,400 1,400 0Total 4,750 4,900 4,381 519Source: DET, November 2015; Spatial Vision, November 2015

Footscray City College and Mount Alexander Year 7–12 College are currently under-utilised with significant spare capacity.

Trends in government secondary school enrolments

Analysis of school enrolments between 2011 and 2015 illustrated that a number of schools have had comparatively stable enrolments over the last five years, including Mount Alexander Year 7–12 College and Princes Hill Secondary College. However, others have had significant fluctuations, including:

Albert Park College (annual increases of between 179 and 222 across the five years, with an overall increase of 740 enrolments between 2011 and 2015). The school’s academic program has progressively expanded following its opening in 2011.

University High School had relatively stable enrolments between 2011 and 2014, however, experienced a significant increase of 161 enrolments between 2014 and 2015.

Non-government secondary schools

There are eight non-government secondary schools in the study area:

Academy of Mary Immaculate (Years 7–12)

Eltham College (Year 9)

Holmes Secondary College (Years 11–12)

Melbourne Grammar School (Years 7–12)

Ozford College (Years 11–12)

Simonds Catholic College (Years 7–12)

St Aloysius College (Years 7–12)

Stott’s Colleges (Years 11–12).



4.3 Specialist schools

There are currently three government specialist schools in the study area. Table 3 details both the historic enrolments for government schools as well as 2015 enrolments.

Table 3: Specialist school demand data

Name of specialist schoolsHistoric enrolments Change

(#) (2011–

15)

Change (%)

(2011–15)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Ascot Vale Special School 112 99 111 105 113 2 1.43

Port Phillip Specialist School 126 135 140 139 131 5 4.12

Yarraville Special Development School 43 48 49 58 60 16 37.96

Total 281 281 299 302 304 23 8.26Source: DET, November 2015; Spatial Vision, November 2015

4.4 Learnings from the engagement process relating to existing school supply

Throughout the engagement process, local community representatives, school principals and local government participants raised the following issues in regard to existing supply:

All participant groups raised concerns with regard to the reliance on relocatable classrooms to achieve total capacity in the long term, particularly how this impacts on space for non-built school facilities such as play areas and open space.

Many Docklands families currently feel they have a lack of choice in schooling as many nearby schools are at, or approaching capacity. They feel they must travel further than other inner city families.

Overcrowding of schools was seen as a factor that impacts access to quality outdoor space. The rapid population growth and the site size of surrounding schools was identified as a point of concern for families. North Melbourne Primary School is growing at a rate of one classroom per year and there are high student populations in the area surrounding Port Melbourne Primary School.

There was concern about the inclusion of Debney Meadows Primary School and Mount Alexander Secondary School in the study area as these schools are not seen as being easily accessible by families living in Docklands.

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5 Needs assessment

5.1 Primary school needs assessment

5.1.1 Demand forecasts Total demand

The demand for primary school enrolments for each DRU was determined by examining the projected change in the total number of primary-school-aged children (5 to 11 year olds) between 2011 and 2031. The primary study area is expected to have an increase of almost 8,300 primary-school-aged children between 2011 and 2031, which is equivalent to a 194 per cent increase. The DRUs likely to experience the most significant population growth in primary school aged children are:

Albert Park Primary School DRU (approximately 2,400 additional students)

North Melbourne Primary School DRU (approximately 2,100 additional students)

Carlton Gardens Primary School DRU (approximately 1,700 additional students)

Port Melbourne Primary School DRU (approximately 1,200 additional students).

See Appendix E for more detailed data regarding primary school demand for each DRU.

Market share analysis

Government schools cater for a portion of total primary school demand, with the remaining demand absorbed by Catholic and independent schools. To determine future government school demand, an assessment was undertaken to calculate government school share for each DRU within the study area between 2011 and 2015. The analysis illustrated only a slight variance in the government school market share between 2011 and 2015.

More detailed analysis is required to forecast government school market share, which is outside the scope of this assessment. The government market share as at 2015 for each of the DRUs has been used to forecast future government school demand from 2016 to 2031. This is detailed in Table 4.

See Appendix F for more detail regarding the market share analysis undertaken for this study.

Government demand forecasts

Table 4 illustrates the demand for government primary schools per DRU when the DRU government market share is applied to the projected primary school demand. The analysis shows that there is likely to be an increase of approximately 5,600 government primary-school-aged children between 2011 and 2031. This is equivalent to an increase of almost 210 per cent.

In line with total school demand projections, the DRUs likely to experience the most significant increases in government primary school demand are:

Albert Park Primary School DRU (approximately 1,400 additional students)



North Melbourne Primary School (approximately 1,700 additional students)

Carlton Gardens Primary School (approximately 1,000 additional students)

Port Melbourne Primary School (approximately 900 additional students).

Table 4: Projected government primary school demand between 2011 and 2031

Government primary school

Government school mar-

ket share (2015)*

Government primary school demand* Change (#)

(2011–31)

Change (%) (2011–

31)2011 2016 2020 2026 2031

Albert Park Primary School 58.2 618 906 1,161 1,713 2,045 1,427 230.84Carlton Gardens Primary School 58.2 197 387 574 926 1,190 993 503.86Debney Meadows Primary School 59.7 391 378 388 438 435 44 11.31Footscray City Primary School 69.2 287 307 368 471 567 280 97.47Kensington Primary School 57.5 336 430 545 508 579 243 72.33North Melbourne Primary School 82.0 464 806 1,187 1,829 2,166 1,702 366.73Port Melbourne Primary School 72.4 381 536 655 880 1,302 921 241.86

Summary 65.3 2,674 3,749 4,878 6,765 8,283 5,609 209.77*Numbers are forecasts and approximate only Source: DET, November 2015; Spatial Vision, November 2015

5.1.2 Primary school demand from the Docklands community As previously identified, the suburb of Docklands currently falls within two DRUs - North Melbourne Primary School and Port Melbourne Primary School. It is therefore difficult to assess the level of demand generated from Docklands through the use of DRU level data. Therefore, additional demographic analysis has been undertaken focussing solely on Docklands.

In the suburb of Docklands, between 2011 and 2015 there was an increase of 111 primary school aged persons (from 52 to 163 persons). Between 2015 and 2035 the total number of primary school aged children is expected to increase by 700 students (total of 866 in 2035). The government market share at 2015 for Docklands was 54.6 per cent. This proportion is significantly less than the study area average of 65.3 per cent. If a new school is to be built for Docklands it would be expected that the market share would increase, therefore the following table calculates demand for government primary school enrolments based on the 2015 suburb market share compared to the study area average.

Table 5 illustrates that by applying the 2015 suburb market share, there is likely to be demand for less than 500 government primary school enrolment places for Docklands. However, by applying the study area average, the demand is likely to be almost 100 places more.

If a new primary school is recommended in Docklands a more robust analysis of future market share will need to be undertaken.

Table 5: Docklands primary school demand forecast between 2011 and 2035Government

school market share (2015)

Government primary school demand*

2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Docklands suburb market share calculations 54.6 35 89 179 193 387 473Primary study area market share calculations 65.3 n/a n/a 214 231 463 565

*Numbers are forecasts and approximate only Source: DET, January 2016

20


5.1.3 Trends in access An analysis of access trends was undertaken to understand movement patterns within and outside of the network. The analysis included student address mapping and enrolment forecasts, as well as consultation findings.

Student address mapping

The analysis of the 2015 enrolment data detailing student addresses highlighted that while some schools service a relatively local enrolment population, there are a number of schools attracting large proportions of families living outside of the school’s DRU. There are also a number of students (360 students) traveling from outside the study area to access schools within the study area, particularly Footscray City Primary School. The schools which service a more local enrolment population include:

Albert Park Primary School (almost 90 per cent of enrolments are within the school’s DRU)

Debney Meadows Primary School (almost 82 per cent of enrolments are within the school’s DRU)

North Melbourne Primary School (almost 84 per cent of enrolments are within the school’s DRU).

Schools that families travel the furthest for are Carlton Gardens Primary School (median distance of 1.6 kilometres) and Kensington Primary School (median distance of 1.51 kilometres).

Additionally, the student address mapping highlighted that there are physical boundaries that define where families travel. These include major roads and land uses such as industrial clusters. Some schools have a trend of families traveling towards the CBD to access them such as Footscray City Primary School and Kensington Primary School. North Melbourne Primary School appears to be the main primary school accessed by Docklands families. Port Melbourne Primary School also appears to provide for Docklands families and to a lesser extent Carlton Gardens Primary School.

The analysis also highlighted that there are a number of students not accessing their designated local school and are traveling to other schools within the study area. For example, 190 students are travelling from the Port Melbourne DRU to Albert Park Primary School. However, the majority of students are accessing schools within the study area, with only approximately 30 students living within the study area and accessing schools outside of it.

For more detailed data relating to the student address analysis, see Appendix G.

Enrolment forecasts

Comparison of DRU government school demand data and enrolment forecast data to 2020 identified a significant difference. Government school demand is estimated to be approximately 1,000 students higher than projected enrolments in 2020. However, there are a number of schools expected to experience enrolment demand significantly higher than the local DRU government school demand, as follows:

Albert Park Primary School’s enrolment forecasts are approximately 700 students more than the local DRU government primary school demand.

Footscray City Primary School’s enrolment forecasts are over 300 students more than the local DRU government primary school demand.



Port Melbourne Primary School’s enrolment forecasts are over 200 students more than the local DRU government primary school demand.

North Melbourne Primary School’s enrolment forecasts are approximately 500 students more than the local DRU government primary school demand.

Enrolment forecasts are relatively consistent with the student address mapping analysis which illustrated that the above schools attract significant numbers of students outside the local DRU. The exception is Albert Park Primary School which primarily services the local DRU population.

See Appendix H for more detailed enrolment forecasts.

5.1.4 Capacity analysis As illustrated in Table 6 and Figure 4, forecast population growth for this study area is expected to be significant. When considering existing school capacities and government school demand, there is likely to be a total deficit of approximately 4,800 government primary school enrolment places across the study area by 2031. The DRUs likely to experience the most significant capacity concerns are:

Albert Park Primary School (deficit of over 1,500 enrolments)2

North Melbourne Primary School (deficit of approximately 1,500 enrolments)

Carlton Gardens Primary School (deficit of over 800 enrolments)

Port Melbourne Primary School (deficit of approximately 600 enrolments).

As discussed, there is a Government commitment for two government primary schools in South Melbourne, which are likely to address some of the pressure for places at Albert Park Primary School and Port Melbourne Primary School. There is also a primary school recommended as part of the Arden–Macaulay precinct planning that could potentially reduce some of the pressure on North Melbourne Primary School. However, given the significant projected deficits for these areas, it is unlikely that these schools alone will cater for projected local demand in 2031.

All of the primary schools identified above rely on relocatable classrooms to achieve total capacity. This will need further consideration when planning for increased school provision in Docklands.

See Appendix I for detailed individual reports for the schools identified above, illustrating the comparison between demand, enrolments and capacity between 2011 and 2031.

2 This figure does not include the two schools committed to in South Melbourne.22


Table 6: DRU government school demand capacity assessmentGovernment primary school Government school demand* Existing

capacity Remaining capacity

2011

2016

2020

2026

2031

2011

2016 2020 2026 2031

Albert Park Primary School 618 906 1,1

611,713

2,045 500 -

118-

406 -661-

1,213

-1,54

5Carlton Gardens Primary School 197 387 574 926 1,1

90 350 153 -37 -224 -576 -840

Debney Meadows Primary School 391 378 388 438 435 350 -41 -28 -38 -88 -85

Footscray City Primary School 287 307 368 471 567 450 163 143 82 -21 -117

Kensington Primary School 336 430 545 508 579 500 164 70 -45 -8 -79

North Melbourne Primary School 464 806 1,1

871,829

2,166 650 186 -

156 -537-

1,179

-1,51

6Port Melbourne Primary School 381 536 655 880 1,3

02 725 344 189 70 -155 -577

Summary 2,674

3,749

4,878

6,765

8,283 3,525 851 -

224-

1,353

-3,24

0

-4,75

8*Numbers are forecasts and approximate only Source: DET, November 2015; Spatial Vision, November 2015

Figure 4: Primary school demand, enrolments and capacity overview

Please note: school capacity is not fixed and it is Department policy that additional demand is managed with relocatable classrooms in the short term where necessary.



5.2 Secondary school needs assessment

5.2.1 Demand forecasts Total demand

The secondary school study area is expected to have an increase of almost 14,700 secondary-school-aged children between 2011 and 2031, which is equivalent to a 148 per cent increase. The DRUs likely to experience the most significant growth in total secondary-school-aged children are:

University High School DRU (approximately an additional 8,700 students)

Albert Park College DRU (approximately an additional 3,000 students)

Footscray City College DRU (approximately an additional 1,200 students).

See Appendix E for more detailed data regarding total secondary school demand for each DRU.

Market share analysis

Government schools cater for a portion of total secondary school demand, with the remaining demand absorbed by Catholic and independent schools. To determine future government school demand, an assessment was undertaken of government share for each DRU within the study area between 2011 and 2015. The analysis illustrated only a slight variance in the government market share between 2011 and 2015. More detailed analysis would be required to forecast government market share, which is outside the scope of this assessment. The government market share as at 2015 has been used to forecast future government demand from 2016 to 2031 (as illustrated in Table 7).

See Appendix F for more detail regarding the market share analysis undertaken for this study.

Government demand forecasts

Table 7 illustrates the demand for government secondary school per DRU when applying the DRU government market share to the projected total secondary school demand. The analysis identified that there is likely to be an increase of approximately 3,300 government secondary school students between 2011 and 2031, which is equivalent to an increase of almost 94 per cent.

Consistent with total school demand projections, the DRUs likely to experience the most significant increases in government secondary school demand include:

Albert Park College DRU (approximately an additional 1,300 students)

University High School (approximately an additional 1,100 students)

Footscray City College (approximately an additional 500 students).

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Table 7: Projected government secondary school demand between 2011 and 2031

Government sec-ondary school

Government school market share (2015)*

Government secondary school de-mand*

Change (#) (2011

–31)

Change (%) (2011–

31)2011 2016 2020 2026 2031Albert Park College 35.9 516 983 1,155 1,502 1,766 1,250 242.23Footscray City Col-lege 43.3 1,006 1,000 1,236 1,374 1,454 448 44.53

Mount Alexander Year 7–12 College 39.6 905 918 1,005 1,108 1,212 307 33.94

Princes Hill Second-ary College 39.3 408 417 481 564 631 223 54.70

University High School 15.5 700 867 1,051 1,399 1,799 1,099 157.03

Summary 34.7 3,535 4,185 4,928 5,948 6,862 3,327 94.13*Numbers are forecasts and approximate only Source: DET, November 2015; Spatial Vision, November 2015

5.2.2 Secondary school demand from the Docklands communityThe suburb of Docklands currently falls within two secondary school DRUs: University High School and Albert Park College. It is therefore difficult to assess the level of demand generated from Docklands through the use of DRU level data.

Therefore, additional demographic analysis has been undertaken to focus solely on the area of Docklands. Between 2011 and 2015 there was an increase of 45 secondary-school-aged students (from 97 to 142) in Docklands. Between 2015 and 2035, the total number of secondary-school-aged children is expected to increase by over 500 students (total of 691 in 2035). The government market share at 2015 for Docklands was 33.8 per cent. This proportion is similar to the study area average of 34.7 per cent. If a new secondary school was to be built for Docklands, it would be expected that the market share would increase. Table 8 calculates demand for government secondary school enrolments based on both the current (2015) suburb market share and the study area government market share average.

Table 8 illustrates that by applying the 2015 suburb market share and the study area average, there is likely to be demand for approximately 200 government secondary school enrolment places for Docklands.

If a new secondary school is recommended in Docklands a more robust analysis of future market share will need to be undertaken.

Table 8: Docklands secondary school demand forecasts between 2011 and 2035Government

school market share (2015)

Government secondary school demand*

2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Docklands suburb government market share 33.8 43 48 78 142 180 234Secondary study area government market share average 34.7 n/a n/a 80 146 185 240

*Numbers are forecasts and approximate only. Source: DET, January 2016



5.2.3 Trends in access An analysis of access trends was undertaken to understand movement patterns within and outside the network. The analysis included student address mapping and enrolment forecasts, as well as consultation findings.

Student address mapping

As with the primary school needs assessment, spatial analysis was conducted for geocoded student enrolment addresses for 2015. The analysis highlighted that while some schools service a relatively local enrolment population, there are a number of schools attracting large proportions of families living outside of the school’s DRU. There are also a number of students (1,785 students) traveling from outside the study area to access schools within the study area, particularly Princes Hill Secondary College and University High School. The schools that service a more local enrolment population include:

Albert Park College (71 per cent of enrolments within the school’s DRU)

Mount Alexander Year 7-12 College (67 per cent of enrolments within the school’s DRU).

Additionally, the analysis illustrated that physical boundaries do not appear to play a significant role in secondary school access. Analysis of Mount Alexander Year 7–12 College student addresses illustrated that physical barriers, the CityLink toll road and Mount Alexander Road have an impact on the enrolment catchment. However, all the other secondary schools indicated significantly large enrolment catchments from both within and extending beyond the study area, irrespective of physical barriers.

The analysis also highlighted that there are a number of students not accessing their designated local school and are traveling to other schools within the study area. For example, 132 students are travelling from the Mount Alexander Year 7–12 College DRU to University High School. There are also 1,018 students accessing schools outside of the study area.

It is important to note that although Docklands lies within the University High School DRU, this school has a Zone which limits enrolments and does not extend to Docklands. The school accepts students residing outside its Zone on specific curriculum grounds. It is unknown what proportion of students are enrolled according to Zone or curriculum grounds.

Currently University High School and Princes Hill Secondary College appear to be the main secondary schools supporting Docklands families.

For more detailed data relating to the student address analysis, see Appendix G.

Enrolment forecasts

Comparison of government school demand and enrolment forecasts up to 2020 identified a significant difference. Government school demand is estimated to be around 1,300 students higher than projected enrolments. However, when looking at specific DRUs there are a number of schools expected to experience enrolment demand significantly higher than the local DRU’s government school demand, as follows:

University High School’s enrolment forecasts are over 600 students more than the local DRU government secondary school demand.

Princes Hill Secondary College’s enrolment forecasts are over 400 students more than the local DRU government secondary school demand.

26


Albert Park College’s enrolment forecasts are approximately 300 students more than the local DRU government secondary school demand.

Analysis of enrolment forecasts reflects the student address mapping analysis which illustrated that the above schools attract significant numbers of students from outside the local DRU.

See Appendix H for more detailed enrolment forecasts.

5.2.4 Capacity analysis As illustrated in in Table 9 and Figure 5, forecast population growth for this study area is significant. When considering existing school capacity and government school demand, there is likely to be a total deficit of approximately 2,100 government secondary school enrolments across the study area by 2031. The DRUs likely to experience the most significant capacity concerns include:

Mount Alexander Year 7–12 Secondary College (deficit of approximately 700 enrolments)

Albert Park College (deficit of approximately 900 enrolments)

University High School (deficit of approximately 400 enrolments).

Appendix J provides detailed individual government school reports for the schools identified above, illustrating the comparison between demand, enrolments and capacity between 2011 and 2031.



Table 9: DRU government school demand capacity assessment

Government sec-ondary school

Government school demand* Existing capacity

Remaining capacity2011 2016 2020 2026 2031 2011 2016 2020 2026 2031

Albert Park College 516 983 1,155 1,502 1,766 900 384 -83 -255 -602 -866

Footscray City Col-lege 1,006 1,000 1,23

6 1,374 1,454 1,200 194 200 -36 -174 -254

Mount Alexander Year 7–12 College 905 918 1,00

5 1,108 1,212 500 -405 -418 -505 -608 -712

Princes Hill Second-ary College 408 417 481 564 631 900 492 483 419 336 269

University High School 700 867 1,05

1 1,399 1,799 1,400 700 533 349 1 -399

Summary 3,535 4,185 4,928 5,948 6,862 4,900 1365 715 -28 -1,048 -1,962

*Numbers are forecasts and approximate only, Source: DET, November 2015; Spatial Vision, November 2015

Figure 5: Secondary school demand, enrolment and capacity overview

Please note: school capacity is not fixed and it is Department policy that additional demand is managed with relocatable classrooms in the short term where necessary.

28

Source: DET, November 2015; Spatial Vision November 2015


5.3 Specialist schools

Forecasted specialist school demand has been calculated based on the following two key assumptions provided by the Department:

on average, 3.7 per cent of school aged children will have some form of disability

on average, 45 per cent of school aged children with disabilities will enrol in a government specialist school.

Based on these assumptions it is anticipated that by 2031 there will be demand across the study area for:

approximately 200 government specialist school enrolments for primary school aged children

approximately 400 government specialist school enrolments for secondary school aged children.

Compared to mainstream primary and secondary schools, this analysis does not consider specialist school provision in a holistic sense, as these schools typically draw school-aged children from a much wider network depending on the education programs offered at each special school. To examine demand for government specialist school facilities in detail, a specific study area would need to be developed and demand examined on a school by school basis.

See Appendix K for calculations for specialist school demand undertaken for this study.

5.4 Engagement findings relating to trends in demand and access

Throughout the engagement process, local community representatives, local school principals and local government participants raised the following issues:

Transport and access:

All stakeholder groups identified:

School planning needs to recognise physical and transport access barriers. The existing pedestrian connections in some areas of Docklands are poor. Wind also impacts pedestrian movements.

Schools are important for the general development of communities and the socialisation and language development of children. This is particularly important in inner city areas where there are high proportions of newly arrived communities.

A number of community members identified that there is limited bicycle and pedestrian access to existing schools with families therefore required to drive to school.

The application of school zoning means that families in the Docklands are not necessarily able to access their closest school.



Some families are choosing to access private education because they perceive government schools in the area as unsuitable to meet their needs.

Population change


There are significant urban renewal areas identified within the inner city. The future population is unknown but likely to be primarily higher density. The Arden-Macaulay development precinct is the next development area and will increase demand for primary and secondary schools, particularly in North Melbourne and surrounds.

There is potential for improved access to schools to encourage different types of residential development, as well as to respond to development growth. For example, if a school is built, developers are likely to build more three bedroom dwellings.

Issues relating to housing affordability have resulted in more families staying in the inner city and more families living in high-rise developments.

Some families living in outer areas and working in the city are choosing to enrol their children in schools in the inner city, therefore impacting on demand for some schools.

The inner city is often an attractive destination for newly arrived communities and 457 Visa recipients. Settlement patterns impact on local communities and demand for schooling. Demand fluctuates when larger families arrive at, or leave a school.

An interim approach is required to provide Docklands families with access to schools given that inner city areas are becoming more popular with young families. Further consideration should be given to a potential role for the Docklands Library as an interim campus or pickup point.

Perceptions and reputations


Demand pressures vary across the network. There is strong demand for some existing schools in inner Melbourne, while other schools have low enrolment demand due to poor reputation or public perception.

Some schools are considered to be more desirable than others. Once there is a particular perception associated with a school, it is very difficult to change and it can often take time for the reputation to be accurate.

5.5 Engagement findings to be considered in stage two

There were a number of issues raised through the stage one consultation relating to the second stage of the project, including options to improve provision for the Docklands community, criteria for assessing options, and defining the study area for stage two.

All additional engagement findings will be included and explored further in stage two. They include the following:

30


Participants felt that Docklands is currently lacking a ‘sense of community’. There should be an emphasis on the role that a local school can play in community building by providing population diversity by retaining and supporting young families living in the area.

A new school in Docklands has the potential to create a heart for the community and provide the experience of going to a local school. Currently families in Docklands are dispersed across a range of schools outside of Docklands which impacts their ability to connect with their local community.

The quality of school grounds and facilities are important as schools provide valuable public open space and recreational resources for children living in higher density developments.

Key factors families consider when choosing a school are:

quality of the school facilities and curriculum

location

distance

access to high quality play areas

quality staff, teachers and principals

schools that are inclusive of all needs and culture.

Council’s strategic plan for Docklands includes facilitating the delivery of a range of transport options to improve access and better links to surrounding suburbs. School provision in Docklands needs a strong partnership between state and local government and be linked to the City of Melbourne’s Docklands Strategy.

Development of options needs to consider short, medium and long term options to ensure equitable access and learning outcomes for students living on Docklands.

Short and medium-term options should include strategies to encourage increase in enrolments to existing schools.

Council supports any new school developed in the study area to be located, designed and operated in collaboration with Council and local residents to support social cohesion of the Docklands neighbourhood.

Council supports the Department’s policy of maximising integration and shared use of community services and facilities through co-location and collaboration, to ensure integration, and maximise the use of the natural, built, social, civic and cultural environment.



6 ConclusionsThe analysis in stage one indicates that by 2031, there will be insufficient capacity within the study areas surrounding the Docklands to accommodate projected government primary and secondary school demand.

The study areas currently have capacity to provide for local DRU demand, but in some areas they are at or near capacity. In the short term, it is expected that some of the likely future demand will be addressed by the two schools committed to in South Melbourne and expanded capacity at existing schools.

There is unequal distribution and provision across the study areas as a result of the locations of schools and their accessibility for students.

It is clear from the analysis of student enrolment data and community consultation that a range of current issues exist that have limited the effectiveness of the study areas to meet current and future needs. Issues regarding accessibility and proximity of surrounding schools are a key concern of the Docklands community.

Primary schools

The study area is expected to have a shortfall of around 4,800 primary school enrolment places by 2031.


North Melbourne Primary School DRU: Expected shortfall of approximately 1,500 enrolment places as a result of significant population growth. North Melbourne Primary School has enrolment forecasts beyond the local DRU government primary school demand indicating that it is a school of choice and draws families from outside its local DRU.

Albert Park Primary School DRU: Projected shortfall of approximately 1,500 enrolment places. This school also attracts a large number of children from outside its local DRU indicating that it is also a school of choice.

Port Melbourne Primary School DRU: Expected shortfall of 600 enrolment places as a result of significant population growth. Port Melbourne Primary School has enrolment forecasts significantly higher than the local DRU government primary school demand as it draws a significant number of students from the Albert Park DRU.

All three of these schools currently rely on relocatable classrooms to achieve total capacity. Irrespective of enrolment forecasts, these schools will require relocatable classrooms to meet local DRU demand.

32


Secondary schools

The study area is expected to have a shortfall of approximately 2,000 government secondary school enrolment places in 2031.


University High School DRU: Expected shortfall of approximately 400 enrolment places. The analysis indicates that this is a school of choice that draws a significant number of families from outside its local DRU, and outside of the study area. University High School has a Zone which limits enrolments. Docklands forms part of the DRU, but sits outside the Zone. Families in Docklands are able to attend University High School however, increasing enrolment pressure generated by significant population growth expected in this DRU may limit future accessibility.

Albert Park College DRU: Expected shortfall of approximately 900 enrolment places. Comparatively this school services a relatively local catchment and the data analysis indicates that this school does not draw a significant number of students from the Docklands area.

Other key issues were also identified through the consultation process:

The engagement process identified the following key issues: Transport access was highlighted as a significant issue throughout the consultation

undertaken for this study. The Docklands/North Melbourne area has been identified as having significant access issues, including limited public transport connections to nearby schools, high car reliance for existing families accessing surrounding schools and significant physical barriers.

School reputations, both negative and positive, impact on how the network operates. Reputations are increasing enrolment pressure on popular schools and impacting the viability of schools experiencing a negative perception.

The number of relocatable classrooms used to achieve current capacity within this network is a concern for families, particularly with regard to the flow-on impacts, such as the provision of open space on school sites and the quality of education facilities.

Considerations for stage two

The following considerations have been identified for stage two:

Develop short, medium and long-term options to identify when, where and how additional needs should be met in the future. This will include a review of all sites previously identified in or surrounding Docklands.

Consider interim options to provide access to primary and secondary education for Docklands families. In the first instance, the Department manages capacity issues using relocatable classrooms and additional permanent facilities on existing school sites.

Undertake further analysis of transport and access to better understand how people move through and around an area. This should consider the accessibility of existing and future school provision by different modes of transport including cycling, walking, driving and public transport.

Reassess the study area based on the outcomes of the access analysis.



Consider how the schools currently accommodating Docklands families will be impacted by any new provision.

Ensure that options address issues and concerns raised by the community during consultation for stage one, including:

issues relating to transport and access

factors influencing choice and reputation

support for schools that are inclusive of students with different abilities and supportive of the needs of families from different socio-economic and cultural backgrounds

the impacts of non-resident worker populations

the use of relocatable classrooms on existing school sites.

34


Appendices

Appendix A: Stage one project methodology


Stakeholder and community engagement

4. Community workshop to seek feedback on the approach and help develop a rigorous process for determining school provision needs, as well as share information and explore local issues and perspectives.

5. Stakeholder meetings to undertake focused discussions with key external stakeholders to identify key issues and opportunities relating to the study area. Stakeholders included local councils, schools and agencies.

Refinement of study area and approach to determining need

6. Data analysis following feedback on the study area and analysis approach, the study area was refined for data analysis.

7. Community Reference Group (CRG) was formed and included a diverse mix of stakeholder representatives. The CRG was a conduit for information between the community and the Department and its consultants, and provided feedback on the project outcomes.

Reporting

8. School provision needs assessment report - following completion of the data analysis and consultation a Draft report was prepared for circulation to the CRG and Internal Steering Group.

9. Feedback from Community Reference Group and Internal Steering Group - included meeting with the CRG and Internal Steering Group and seek feedback on the Draft report).

10 Stage one report for presentation to the Minister for Education (following feedback from the CRG and Internal Steering Group).

2. Determined the approach to understanding need including use and availability of data, and approach to community engagement.

3. Develop preliminary study areas for the purpose of undertaking current and future demographic analysis, identifying demand hotspots and gaps in provision.

1. Background review including history surrounding the review, identification of preliminary issues and opportunities, and identification of project stakeholders.


Appendix B: Land use map

The map below illustrates land uses in the secondary school study area.


36


Appendix C: Forecast population growth for primary and secondary school aged children

Primary school aged population change between 2011 and 2031 (in real numbers)




Secondary school aged population change between 2011 and 2031 (real numbers)


38


Appendix D: SEIFA Index of Disadvantage

The following map illustrates the SEIFA Index of Disadvantage in the secondary school study area.




Appendix E: Total primary and secondary school aged demand

Total primary school age demand* Change (#)

(2011–31)

Change (%)

(2011–31)

DRU 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Albert Park Primary School

1,091 1,556 2,139 2,943 3,513 2,422 222.00

Carlton Gardens Primary School

297 665 1,070 1,591 2,044 1,747 588.22

Debney Meadows Primary School

648 633 668 733 729 81 12.50

Footscray City Primary School

393 443 574 681 819 426 108.40

Kensington Primary School

632 748 806 883 1,007 375 59.34

North Melbourne Primary School

568 983 1,597 2,231 2,641 2,073 364.96

Port Melbourne Primary School

638 740 935 1,216 1,799 1,161 181.97

Total 4,267

5,768

7,789

10,278

12,552

8,285 194.16

*Numbers are forecasts and approximate only

Source: DET, November 2015; Spatial Vision, November 2015

Total secondary school age demand* Change (#)

(2011–31)

Change (%)

(2011–31)

DRU1,952 2,738 3,217 4,185 4,919

Albert Park College 2,109 2,310 2,855 3,174 3,358 1,249 59.22Footscray City College 2,170 2,318 2,538 2,798 3,061 891 41.06Mount Alexander Year 7–12 College 752 1,061 1,224 1,436 1,606 854 113.56Princes Hill Secondary College 2,895 5,596 6,780 9,024 11,608 8,713 300.97University High School 9,878 14,02

316,61

4 20,617 24,552 14,674 148.55Total 1,95

22,73

83,21

7 4,185 4,919 2,967 152.00



40


Appendix F: Market share analysis

Several different approaches could have been undertaken to establish a market share value. One method would have considered the annual rate of change of the market share over the five years and applied that as a consistent rate of change in the market share to 2031. However, due to market share values differing greatly between different schools, for example, in the order of around an eight per cent decrease in market share annually, this figure would not yield practical results.

Government primary school market share calculations

DRU Government market share* Change (2011–

15)

Change (%)

(2011–15)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Albert Park Primary School 56.6 55.9 60.9 58.2 58.2 1.6 2.8Carlton Gardens Primary School

66.3 62.4 59.7 57.7 58.2 -8.1 -12.2

Debney Meadows Primary School

60.3 57.2 58.2 58.5 59.7 -0.6 -1.0

Footscray City Primary School

73.0 73.6 66.8 66.9 69.2 -3.8 -5.2

Kensington Primary School 53.2 59.3 59.2 59.9 57.5 4.3 8.1North Melbourne Primary School

81.7 84.5 81.3 83.8 82.0 0.3 0.4

Port Melbourne Primary School

59.7 62.6 66.3 71.5 72.4 12.7 21.3

Total 64.4 65.1 64.6 65.2 65.3 0.9 1.4*Numbers are forecasts and approximate only


Government secondary school market share calculations

Government market share* Change (2011–15)

Change (%)

(2011–15)DRU 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Albert Park College 26.4 29.5 26.6 29.4 35.9 9.5 36.0Footscray City College 47.7 44.3 42.2 42.0 43.3 -4.4 -9.2Mount Alexander Year 7–12 College

41.7 38.1 39.0 39.9 39.6 -2.1 -5.0

Princes Hill Secondary Col-lege

54.3 44.6 38.1 38.2 39.3 -15.0 -27.6

University High School 24.2 21.8 19.1 16.2 15.5 -8.7 -36.0Total 38.9 35.7 33.0 33.1 34.7 -4.1 -10.7





Appendix G: Student address analysis

A spatial analysis was conducted for geocoded student addresses for 20153. The analysis considered the schools that students attend as well as the DRU within which they reside. The distance a student lives (as the crow flies) from the school they attend was also calculated.

The following tables illustrate the results of the student address analysis.

Primary school student address analysis

Current government primary school enrolments

Government primary schoolCurrent enrol-ments (Febru-

ary 2015)

% of Enrol-ments within school's DRU

Median dis-tance from school (km)

Albert Park Primary School 500 89.60 0.75Carlton Gardens Primary School 337 62.31 1.60Debney Meadows Primary School

88 81.82 0.54

Footscray City Primary School 252 52.17 1.08Kensington Primary School 469 68.23 1.51North Melbourne Primary School

646 83.90 1.02

Port Melbourne Primary School 712 66.57 1.29Total 3,004 73.14 1.17


Demand Reporting Unit (DRU) of residence versus school DRU matrixDemand reporting unit (DRUs)

3 Only successfully geocoded addresses were used in the analysis, whereby a student address was assigned latitude and longitude coordinates provided by the Department.

42


Government Primary School Albe

rt Pa

rk P

rimar

y Sc

hool

Carlt

on G

arde

ns P

rimar

y Sc

hool

Debn

ey M

eado

ws P

rimar

y Sc

hool

Foot

scra

y Ci

ty P

rimar

y Sc

hool

Kens

ingt

on P

rimar

y Sc

hool

North

Mel

bour

ne P

rimar

y Sc

hool

Port

Mel

bour

ne P

rimar

y Sc

hool

Outs

ide

stud

y ar

ea

Gran

d to

tal

Albert Park Primary School 448 0 0 0 0 0 20 32 500

Carlton Gardens Primary School 3 210 3 0 0 55 0 66 337Debney Meadows Primary School 0 0 72 0 0 4 0 12 88

Footscray City Primary School 0 0 0 132 2 3 2 114 253

Kensington Primary School 2 0 56 5 320 8 1 77 469

North Melbourne Primary School 0 19 44 0 5 542 0 36 646

Port Melbourne Primary School 190 13 0 2 0 10 474 23 712

Grand total 643 242 175

139 327 622 497 360 3,00

5




Secondary school student address analysis

Current government secondary school enrolments

Government primary schoolCurrent enrol-ments (Febru-

ary 2015)

% of Enrol-ments within school's DRU

Median dis-tance from school (km)

Albert Park College 891 71.04 2.96Footscray City College 916 39.83 5.52Mount Alexander Year 7–12 College 304 67.43 2.94

Princes Hill Secondary College 869 25.20 3.25University High School 1,401 43.01 5.89Summary 4,381 46.33 4.47Source: DET, November 2015; Spatial Vision, November 2015

DRU of residence versus school DRU matrixGovernment secondary school

Demand Reporting Units (DRUs)

Out

side

Gra

nd t

otal

Albe

rt Pa

rk C

olle

ge

Foot

scra

y Ci

ty C

olle

ge

Mou

nt A

lexa

nder

Yea

r 7–

12

Colle

ge

Prin

ces H

ill Se

cond

ary

Colle

ge

Univ

ersit

y Hi

gh S

choo

l

Albert Park College 633 13 1 1 6 237 891Footscray City College 1 333 69 0 3 430 836Mount Alexander Year 7–12 College 3 4 205 3 30 59 304

Princes Hill Secondary College 1 4 89 219 16 540 869

University High School 21 29 132 98 603 519 1,40

2

Grand total 659 383 496 321 658 1,78

54,30

2Source: DET, November 2015; Spatial Vision, November 2015

44


Appendix H: Enrolment demand analysis

Projected government primary school enrolment capacity assessment

Government primary schoolProjected enrol-

ments* Exist-ing ca-pacity

Remaining capacity

2011 2016 2020 2011 2016 2020

Albert Park Primary School 406 521 550 500 94 -21 -50Carlton Gardens Primary School 196 368 485 350 154 -18 -135Debney Meadows Primary School 94 80 82 350 256 270 268Footscray City Primary School 293.8 320 691 450 156 130 -241Kensington Primary School 353 489 514 500 147 11 -14North Melbourne Primary School 517 698 678 650 133 -48 -28Port Melbourne Primary School 444 770 889 725 281 -45 -164Summary 2,304 3,24

63,88

9 3,525 1221 279 -364



Projected government secondary school enrolment capacity assessment

Government secondary schoolProjected enrol-

ments*Exist-ing ca-pacity

Remaining capacity

2011 2016 2020 2011 2016 2020Albert Park College 891 1,108 1,477 900 0 -208 -577Footscray City College 916 890 1,154 1,200 284 310 46Mount Alexander 7-12 College 304 308 302 500 196 192 198Princes Hill Secondary College 869 885 891 900 31 15 9University High School 1,401 1,428 1,619 1,400 -1 -28 -219

Total 4,381

4,619 5,443 4,900 369 131 -693





Appendix I: Individual government primary school reports

Albert Park Primary School – individual school report

Note: Forecasts are approximate only

46


Debney Meadows Primary School – individual school report



North Melbourne Primary School – individual school report


48


Carlton Gardens Primary School – individual school report




Footscray City Primary School – individual school report

50



Kensington Primary School – individual school report




Port Melbourne Primary School – individual school report


52


Appendix J: Individual government secondary school reports

Albert Park College – individual school report

Note:

Forecasts are approximate only



Footscray City College – individual school report

54



Mount Alexander 7-12 College – individual school report




Princess Hill Secondary College – individual school report

56



University High School – individual school report




Appendix K: Specialist school demand calculations

Specialist school demand analysis for primary school aged children

Docklands primary study area* 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Change (#)

(2011–31)

Change (%)

(2011–31)Primary school aged demand 4,267 5,768 7,789 10,278 12,552 8,285 194.16Primary school aged population disabilities 158 213 288 380 464 307 194.16Government specialist school demand from 5–11 years

71 96 130 171 209 138 194.16



Specialist school demand analysis for secondary school aged children

Docklands secondary study area* 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Change (#)

(2011–31)

Change (%)

(2011–31)Secondary school aged demand 9,878 14,02

3 16,614 20,617 24,552 14,674 148.55Secondary school aged population with disability 365 519 615 763 908 543 148.55Government specialist school demand from 12–17 years

164 233 277 343 409 244 148.55



58

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