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S T RA W S O N O N I N D U C T IO NGEORG E SCHLESINGER

On e o f t h e mo s t s ig ni fi c a n t re s u l ts o f o rd in a ry l an g u ag e p h ilo s-o p h y is S t r a w s o n 's d i s so l u ti o n o f t h e p r o b l e m o f i n d u c t i o n . 1 T h e r eh a ve b e e n m a n y a t t e m p t s t o so lv e t h e p r o b l e m o f i n d u c t i o n b yp e o p le w h o h e ld th e v i e w th a t i t i s a g e n e ra l p r in c ip l e t h a t a n ya rg u me n t wh ic h ma y l e a d f ro m t ru e p r e mis e s t o f a l s e c o n c lu s io n sis i n va lid a n d w h o we re p e rp l e x e d b y th e f a c t t h a t i n d u c t iv e a rg u -m e n t s s e e m to v io l a te t h i s p r in c ip le . S t r a w s o n ' s v i e w d i f f e rs s h a rp lyf ro m th a t h e ld b y th e s e p h i lo s o p h e r s wh o in h i s o p in io n h a v e b e e nla b o r in g u n d e r t h e m i s a p p re h e n s io n th a t f o r i n d u c t iv e r e a s o n in gt o b e j u s t if i e d i t w o u l d h a v e t o b e s h o w n u l t im a t e l y a f o r m o f de -duc t ive reason ing . Th is he th inks is absurd s ince induc t ive reason ingi s p r e c i s e ly t h a t : i n d u c t iv e a n d d e c id e d ly n o t d e d u c t iv e . T h eq u e s t io n w h e th e r t h e r e a r e g o o d r e a s o n s fo r b e li e vin g in c o n c lu s io n sa r riv e d a t i n d u c t iv e ly s imp ly d o e s n o t a r is e fo r b y th e v e ry ru le s o four language ' hav ing good reasons to be l ieve tha t p ' m eans jus t ' p isth e c o n c lu s io n o f i n d u c t iv e r e a s o n in g. 2 . A t m o s t o n e c a n in q u i r ew h e th e r i t is th e c a s e t h a t b y th e ru l e s o f o rd in a ry l an g u ag e i f ac e r t a in e v e n t h a s b e e n e s t a b li s h e d b y in d u c t io n to b e g o ing to o c c u rth e n i t i s c a l l e d ' h a v in g a r a t i o n a l a t t i t u d e ' t o e x p e c t t h a t e v e n t t oh a p p e n , a n d th e a n s we r is , y e s .

T h e re i s a n im p o r t a n t p o in t h e r e t h a t h a s n o t a lwa y s b e e n a p p re -c i a t e d . O n e m a y b e t e m p t e d t o a r g u e i m p a t i e n t l y t h a t t h e r u l e s o fo rd inary language a re o f l i t t l e va lue in he lp ing us to d iscover then a tu re o f r e a l i t y a n d th a t t h e y c a n n o t c r e a t e f a c t s . W h e th e r a c e r ta ine v e n t E i s g o in g to h a p p e n o r n o t is a fa c tu a l q u e s t io n wh ic h c a n n o tbe dec ided by l ingu is t ic leg is la t ion . Bu t S t rawson exp la ins tha t thel in g u is ti c r u l e a c c o rd in g to wh ic h i f it c a n b e s h o wn b y in d u c t iv er e a s o n in g th a t E i s g o in g to h a p p e n th e n i t i s r e a s o n a b le t o b e li e veth a t E i s g o in g to h a p p e n i s e n t i r e ly s af e f ro m e mp i r i c al r e fu t a t i o n .For i f i t tu rns ou t tha t E does a f te r a l l no t happen i t can s t i l l bem a in t a in e d th a t i t wa s r e a s o n a b le t o e x p e c t t h a t E was g o in g toh a p p e n s a n d th a t i n t h e c o n te x t o f th e c i r c u ms ta n c e s p r ev a il in g a tt h e t ime i t wa s c o r r e c t t o m a in t a in t h a t E wa s l i k ely t o h a p p e n .

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G. SCHLESINGERS t r a w s o n r id i c u le s t h e q u e s t i o n ' I s t h e u n i v e rs e s u c h t h a t i n d u c t i v ep r o c e d u r e s a r e r a t i o n a l ? ' si n ce th e n a t u r e o f t h e u n iv e r s e h a s n o t h i n gt o d o w i t h t h e q u e s t i o n w h a t b e l ie f s a r e r a t i o n a l t o h o l d . I t is p u r e l ya m a t te r o f c o n v e n t i o n w h i c h m a y b e u p h e l d in t h e f a c e o f a n yf u t u r e e x p e r i e n c e t h a t i t is r a t i o n a l t o a s s e r t t h a t I h a v e g o o d r e a s o n sn o w t o b e l ie v e E i s g o i n g t o h a p p e n i f t hi s b e l i e f is a c o n c l u s i o n o fi n d u c t i v e r e a s o n in g .

W h i l e s o m e p h i l o s o p h e r s h a v e b e e n a n t a g o n i s t i c m a n y o t h e r sh a v e e n d o r s e d S t r a w s o n ' s v ie w t h a t t h e p r o b l e m o f i n d u c t i c a i ' ap s e u d o - p r o b l e m . I n d e e d t h e m e a s u re o f h i s i n f lu e n c e m a y b e g au g e df r o m t h e f a c t t h a t n o w a d a y s w h e n s o m e o n e is s aid to b e e n g a g e d i ni n v e s ti g a ti n g t h e p r o b l e m o f i n d u c t i o n h e is a s a ru l e a u t o m a t i c a l l ya s s u m e d t o b e e n g a g e d n o t i n t r y i n g t o j u s t i f y i n d u c t i o n b u t int r y i n g t o d e s c r i b e i n d e t a il t h e r u le s o f i n d u c t i o n .

I IB e f o r e p r o b i n g a n y d e e p e r i n t o t h e m a t t e r l et m e m e n t i o n t h a t

t h e r e a r e t w o p o i n t s i n S t r a w s o n ' s a c c o u n t w h i c h I a m n o t g o i n g t od e f e n d , w h i c h in m y o p i n i o n h e h i m s e l f w o u l d w i t h d r a w w e r e h et o giv e m o r e t h o u g h t t o t he m a t te r a n d w h i c h a re a n y h o w n o tc e n t r a l t o h i s t h e si s .

T h e f i r s t p o i n t i s h i s d r a w i n g a p a r a l l e l b e t w e e n i n d u c t i o n a n dd e d u c t i o n a n d g o i n g a s fa r a s c l a i m i n g t h a t i n t h e c as e o f d e d u c t i o ni t is e v e n m o r e o b v i o u s t h a n i n t h e c a s e o f i n d u c t i o n t h a t v a l i d it yis c o n f e r r e d b y c o n v e n t i o n . H e s a y s t h a t i f s o m e o n e a s k e d w h a tg r o u n d s t h e r e w e r e f o r r e g a r d i n g d e d u c t i o n i n g e n e r a l a s a v a li dm e t h o d o f a r g u m a n t ' w e s h o u l d h av e t o a n s w e r t h a t h i s q u e s t i o nw a s w i t h o u t s e ns e , f o r t o s a y th a t a n a r g u m e n t , o r a f o r m o r m e t h o do f a r j g u m e n t w a s v a l i d o r i n v a l i d w o u l d i m p l y t h a t i t w a s d e d u c -t iv e : I t s h o u l d h o w e v e r b e o b v i o u s t h a t t h e si t u a t i o n h a s n o t b e e nc o r r e c t l y c h a r a c t e r i z e d a l r e a d y f r o m t h e f a c t t h a t f u t u r e e x p e r i e n c eis f u n d a m e n t a l l y d i f f e r e n t ly r e la t e d t o d e d u c t i v e th a n t o in d u c t iv er e a s o n i n g . F o r s u p p o s e i t h a s b e e n o b s e r v e d t h a t p , a n d q i s s a i dd e d u c t i v e l y t o f o l l o w f r o m p , t h e n i f w e n o w o b s e r v e t h a t q i s f a l s et h e n - u n li ke in t h e c a se o f i n d u c t i o n - w e c a n n o t c o n t i n u e t oi n s i s t t h a t n e v e r t h e l e s s w e a r e c o r r e c t i n a s s e r t i n g t h a t p l o g i c a l l yi m p l i e d q . N o , i f p i s k n o w n t o b e t r u e t h e n t h e f a c t t h a t q is f a ls es h o w s t h a t t h e d e d u c t i v e ru l e we h a v e u s e d t o ar r iv e a t q m u s t h a v eb e e n i n v a li d . T h u s w h e n w e a r e c o n v i n c e d t h a t p l o g i c a l l y i m p l ie s qt h e n w e c a n b a c k u p o u r c o n v i c t io n b y s o m e t h i n g m o r e t h a n200

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STRAWSON ON INDUCTIONlinguistic convention since our conviction carries a definite claimabout the nature of the universe the truth of which cannot beguaranteed by any rule of language. When we claim that p logicallyimplies q then at least part of our claim is that a situation cannever arise in the world in which p is found true while q is foundfalse.

The second point concerns Strawson's apparent attempt to gobeyond his original contention that methods other then inductionto form beliefs about the unobserved are inferior simply because ithas been agreed to call them irrational and say something strongerin their disfavor. He considers a person who wishing to surmise whatthe future is going to be, doses his eyes, asks himself the relevantquestion and accepts the first answer that comes into his head.Suppose we ask him whether he usually obtains by his method theright answer. Strawson says:He might answer: 'You've mentioned one o f its draw-backs; I never do get the right answer; but it is an extremelyeasy method'. One might then be inclined to think that itwas not a method o f finding things out at all.SThis remark is either irrelevant or unwarranted. When Strawsonsays that this person's method 'was not a method of finding thingsout he must have either meant that in the past it was found not tobe or that in the future it will not be found to be such a method. Inthe former case we must ask: not assuming now that induction isthe only valid method or predicting the future - for surely such anassumption would amount to begging the question - why should itbe thought relevant that the method was unsuccessful in the past?What has past failure to do with future failure? In the latter case wemay ask: What is the justification for thinking so? Since we are notassuming now the validity of induction what makes us inclined tothink that the method may not be successful in the future? theredoes not seem to be any way in which Strawson's remark can bepresented as both relevant and justified.

II!Now 1 propose to raise some questions which go more to the

heart of Strawson's thesis. He points out that it makes good sense toask about a particular belief concerning the future whether itsadoption is warranted for then we are asking whether by theaccepted standards of induction it follows that the belief should be

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G. SCHLESINGERa d o p t e d 9 H o w e v e r , i t m a k e s n o s e n se t o g o o n a n d a s k w h e t h e r t h ea p p l i c a t i o n o f t h o s e v e r y s t a n d a r d s i s w e l l - g r o u n d e d . T h e s i t u a t i o na c c o r d i n g t o h i m i s v e r y s i m i l a r t o t h a t w h i c h o b t a i n s i n t h e c a s eo f q u e s t i o n s c o n c e r n i n g t h e l e g a l i t y o f c e r t a i n p r a c t i c e s . O n e m a ysens ib ly inqu i re whe the r a g iven ac t ion i s l ega l t o wh ich the answerw i l l b e g i v e n b y a n a p p e a l t o t h e e x i s t i n g l e g a l s y s t e m w h i c h s a n c -t i o n s o r p r o h i b i t s t h a t p a r t i c u l a r a c t io n 9 H o w e v e r S t r a w s o n s a y s :

9 i t m a k e s n o s e n s e t o i n q u i r e i n g e n e r a l w h e t h e r t h e l a wof the l and , t he l ega l sy s t em as a who le , i s o r i s no t l ega l 9F o r t o w h a t l eg a l s t a n d a r d s a r e w e a p p e a l i n g . 6S t r a w s o n ' s c o m p a r i s o n i s a v e r y u s e f u l o n e a n d I s h a l l u s e i t i n m ye f f o r t t o ' g e t a b e t t e r p i c tu r e o f w h a t h is p o s it i o n a m o u n t s t o .( I ) S t r a w s o n i s s u r e l y c o r r e c t i n s a y i n g t h a t a p e r s o n m a y w e l la s k f o r i n s ta n c e ' I s i t l eg a l t o b r i n g i n t o t h e c o u n t r y m e r c h a n d i s ef r o m a b r o a d v a lu e d a t $ 1 0 0 0 ? ' h o w e v e r u p o n b e in g th a t i t is n o t , h eis n o t t o a s k ' I s t h e l a w w h i c h p r o h i b i t s s u c h an a c t l e g a l ? ' S u p p o s eh o w e v e r t h a t w e w e r e to l d t h a t i n e v e r y c o u n t r y i n t h e w o r l di t w a s t h e l a w t h a t t h e l im i t f o r b r i ng i n g i n u n d e c l a r e d g o o d sa c q u i r e d i n a f o r e ig n c o u n t r y w a s e x a c t l y $ 3 0 0 . A l s o s u p p o s et h a t w e w e r e t o l d t h a t t h i s l i m i t h a s b e e n l a i d d o w n b y t h e a p p r o p -r i a t e a u t h o r i t i e s i n e a c h c o u n t r y w i t h o u t a n y p r i o r c o n s u l t a t i o nw i t h t h e a u t h o r it ie s o f a n y o t h e r c o u n t r y a n d w i t h o u t e v e n t h ek n o w l e d g e o f t h e l a w a n y w h e r e e l s e . S u r e l y w e w o u l d r e g a r d t h i sq u i t e i n c r e d ib l e . H o w c o m e t h a t w i t h o u t a n y c o l l u s io n a ll t h ea u t h o r i t i e s a r r i v e d a t e x a c t l y $ 3 0 0 a s t h e l i m i t f o r t h e v a lu e o f w h a tm a y b e l e g al ly b e i m p o r t e d f r o m a b r o a d ? S u r e l y th e r e i s n o d i s ti n ctf e a t u r e o f t h e u n iv e r s e w h i c h m a k e s $ 3 0 0 a s t h e n a t u r a l s u m f o r t h a tp u r p o s e .S i m i l a r ly t h e n i n t he c a se o f i n d u c t i o n : w h a t c o n s t i t u t e s a v al idf o r m o f i n d u c ti v e r e a s o n i n g h a p p e n s t o b e ag r e e d u p o n t o t h e v e r ylas t de ta i l in a l l the languages in the wo rld 9 H ow is i t tha t a l l thep e o p l e w i t h o u t e x c e p t i o n a r r iv e d p r e c i s e ly a t t h e s a m e c o n v e n t i o nw h e n t h e r e i s n o t h i n g i n t h e o b j e c t iv e n a t u r e o f r e a l i ty w h i c h w o u l dc a l l f o r s u c h a c o n v e n t i o n ? I t i s f o r e x a m p l e a c o n v e n t i o n i n t h eE n g l is h la n g u a ge t h a t ' g r e e n ' s t a n d s f o r t h e c o l o r g r e e n a n d w e m a yl e a v e i t a t t h a t . H o w e v e r i f i n e v e r y l a n g u a g e i n t h e w o r l d t h e c o l o rg r e e n w a s d e n o t e d b y ' g r e e n ' t h e n s u r e l y w e w o u l d r e g a r d t h is a sm o s t r e m a r k a b l e a n d i n v e s ti g a te t h e r e a s o n s f o r it .

S t r a w s o n m a y w e ll r e p ly t h a t h e w i s he d to c l a im o n l y t h a t w ec a n n o t g iv e lo g ic a l r e as o n s f o r a d o p t i n g i n d u c t iv e p r a c t i c e s b u t b yt h i s h e d i d n o t m e a n t o i m p l y t h a t t h e r u le s w h i c h g o v e r n th o s e p r a c -t i c e s a r e e n t i r e l y a r b i t r a r y ; w e c a n a n d s h o u l d g i ve a n e x p l a n a t i o n2 0 2

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STRAWSON ON IND UCT IONw h y t h e r e i s a c o n v e n t i o n t o e m p l o y t h e se p a rt i c u l a r r o le s i n e m p i r -i ca l enqu i r ie s . T he ex p lan a t ion wi l l be psych o log ica l . Tha t i s , wh i l eS t r a w so n w i ll d e n y t h a t i n d u c t i v e r e a so n i n g a re o b j e c t iv e l y su p e r i o rt o a n y o t h e r f o r m o f r e a so n i n g f r o m t h e o b s e r v e d t o t h e u n o b s e r v e d ,i t d o e s h a v e t h e r e q u i r e d f e a t u r e s w h i c h m a k e t h e m p sy c h o l o g i c a l l ya t t r a c t i v e . Th e e x p l a n a t i o n a s t o w h y e v e r y w h e r e i n t h e w o r l d a l lp e o p l e su b sc r ib e t o t h e s a m e r u l e s o f i n d u c t i o n b e c a u se i t is a u n i -v e r sa ll y sh a r e d h u m a n u r g e t o a n t i c i p a t e t h e u n o b se r v e d t o tu r n o u tt h e w a y t h e y a r e p r e d i c t e d t o t u r n o u t o n t h e b a s i s o f th e se r u le s .( 2 ) W h ile g o o d se n se p r e c l u d e s u s f r o m a sk i n g w h e t h e r t h e l a wp r o h i b i t i n g t h e i m p o r t o f u n l i m i t e d a m o u n t o f f o r e ig n g o o d s i s l eg a li t i s p e r f e c t l y i n o r d e r t o a sk w h y su c h l a w h a s b e e n e n a c t e d i n t h ef ir s t p l a c e. S u c h a q u e s t i o n w o u l d n o t b e l e f t u n a n sw e r e d e i t h e r ;t h e e c o n o m i c f a c t o r s w h i c h n e c e s s i t a t e t h e l a w c o u l d b e s t a t e d i nd e t a i l in d e f e n d i n g i t . Th e s a m e a p p l i e s t o e v e r y l a w : w e d o n o t a sko f c o u r se t h a t t h e y b e l eg a l ly j u s t i fi e d b u t w e d o a sk t h a t t h e y b ej u s t if i e d i n a s a t i s f a c t o r y m a n n e r , th a t i s, t h e y t h e y b e sh o w n t of u lf il l s o m e l e g i ti m a t e p u r p o se . I t m a y s a f e ly b e s t a t e d t h a t i f p e o p l ew e r e t o r e a c h th e c o n c l u s i o n t h a t a p a r ti c u l a r la w o f c o u n t r y d i d n o ts e rv e a n y u se f u l p u r p o se a n d t h a t i t m e r e l y c a u se s i n c o n v e n i e n c ea n d i ts o ri g in c a n n o t b e e x p l a i n e d b y n o t h i n g e ls e b u t t h a t i t f u l-f il led a ps ycho log ica l need o f the l eg i s la to r s the n th ey w ould f igh tf o r t h e a b o l i t io n o f t h a t l a w .

W hen i t com es to l igu i s ti c con ven t ions then in som e cases we a rejus t i f i ab ly qu i t e ind i f f e r en t to the f ac t tha t the re is no ob jec t iveb a s i s f o r t h e i r a d o p t i o n . F o r i n s t a n c e w e a r e n o t w o r r i e d w h y t h ec o l o r g re e n is d e n o t e d b y t h e w o r d ' g r e e n ' a n d n o t ' r e d ' b u t t h e n itm a k e s n o p r a c t ic a l d i ff e r e n c e w h a t w o r d d e n o t e s g r e e n . W e sh o u l dh o w e v e r n o t b e i n d i f f e r e n t t o t h e q u e s t i o n a s t o w h a t l in g u is ti cc o n v e n t i o n d e t e r m i n e s t h e c i rc u m s t a n c e s u n d e r w h i c h w e s a y o fe v e n t E t h a t i t is r e a so n a b l e to e x p e c t i t t o h a p p e n . Th i s c o n v e n t i o nm ay have a g rea t dea l o f p rac t i ca l im pl i ca t ions . Sup pose E i s a h igh lyu n d e s i ra b l e e v e n t w h i c h w e sh o u l d v e ry m u c h w a n t t o a v e r t b u taccord ing to the ru les o f induc t ion i t fo l lows tha t i t r equ i r esa c t io n o f c o n s i d e r a b le c o m p l e x i t y a n d s t re n u o u sn e s s t o p r e v e n t Ef r o m h a p p e n i n g . I n a s i t u a t i o n l i k e t h is it s e e m s w e sh o u l d w a n t ag o o d e x p l a n a t i o n w h y t h e se r u le s , w h i c h im p o se u p o n u s t h e n e e df o r su c h b u r d e n s o m e a c ti v it ie s , h a d t o b e a d o p t e d . A s i n t h e c a se o fa la w i n c o n n e c t i o n o f w h i c h w e w o u l d b e t o l d t h a t t h e sol e r e a so nf o r it s e n a c t m e n t w a s to s a t i s f y so m e p sy c h o l o g i c a l q u i r k o n t h e p a r to f t h e a u t h o r i t i e s , h e r e t o o w e o u g h t t o f e e l t h a t t h e l i n g u i s t i cl eg is l a tion in qu es t ion i s an un w ar ran ted im pos i t ion u po n us . Bu t in

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G . S C H L E S I N G E R

f a c t w e n e v e r q u e s t i o n t h e a d e q u a c y o f th e r u l e s o f in d u c t i v e r e a so n -i ng . Th u s S t r a w so n ' s c la i m t h a t t h e y a r e r u le s a d o p t e d m e r e l y b yc o n v e n t i o n a n d h i s c o m p a r i so n b e t w e e n t h e se r u l e s a n d t h e l e g a lr u le s w h i c h g o v e r n o u r b e h a v i o r s e e m i m p l a u s i b l e .

( 3 ) I n t h e ca se o f t h e la w a g a in s t i m p o r t i n g f o r e ig n g o o d s a b o v ea ce r t a in va lue we can eas i ly imag ine tha t i f t he l aw were abo l i shedt h e n w e w o u l d a c t a c c o r d i n g l y a n d c e a se g iv in g a n o t h e r t h o u g h ta b o u t w h a t w e b r o u g h t b a c k w i t h u s u p o n r e t u r n i n g f r o m o u r v i s i t sa b r o a d . W o u ld S t r aw s o n m a i n t a i n t h a t i f b y g e n e r al c o n s e n t o fw r i t e rs , j o u r n a l i s t s a n d o t h e r s w h o sh a p e l in g u i st ic p r a c t i c e s , t h ec o n v e n t i o n c o n c e r n i n g w h a t i s t o b e c a l l e d a w e l l - g r o u n d e d b e l i e fw a s a l te r e d , t h e n a ll o f u s w o u l d c h e e r f u l l y g o a l o n g w i t h t h is c h a n g et o o ? I t w o u l d s e e m th a t w e w o u l d n o t , b u t i t m i g h t b e c o n t e n d e dt h a t t h e r e a so n is so m e t h i n g w e h a v e a l r e a d y m e n t i o n e d : i n d u c t i v er e a so n i n g h a s s t r o n g p sy c h o l o g i c a l a p p e a l . B u t i f t h e c o n v e n t i o nw e r e c h a n g e d w e w o u l d b e l e f t w i t h n o r a t i o n a l g r o u n d s u p o n w h i c ht o d e f e n d o u r b e l i e f s a r r i v e d a t b y t h e o l d r u l e s o f r e a so n i n g . Y e t Ia m s u r e t h e r e a r e m a n y p e o p l e l i ke m y s e l f w h o f e e l t h a t e v e n i f a llt h e p h i l o so p h e r s w h o h a d t h e h i g h e s t r e g a r d fo r u n i v e r sa ll y p r o -c l a i m e d c o n v e n t i o n s t r i e d t h e i r h a r d e s t t h e y c o u l d n o t t a l k m e i n t oa c c e p t i n g a n y n e w r u le s t o d e t e r m i n e t h e m e a n i n g ' a w e l l -e s t a b li sh e dh y p o t h e s e s ' .

I VI n m y ' Ju s t i f ic a t i o n o f Em p i r ic a l R e a so n i n g 7 I h a v e a d v a n c e d a

thes i s wh ich I sha l l b r i e f ly d i scuss he re and th rough which S t r aw-so n ' s p o s i t i o n m a y b e v i n d i c a t e d . W h i l e n o w h e r e i n h i s w r i t i n g sd o e s h e m a k e a n y a l lu s io n t o t h e t h e s is i n q u e s t i o n , i t is b y n om e a n s n e c e s sa r y t o a s su m e t h a t h e w o u l d w i sh t o r e j e c t i t . Th eessence o f the thes i s i s t ha t the induc t ive m et ho d as i t i s un i -v e r sal ly p r a c t i c e d i s i m p o se d u p o n u s b y a p r o c e s s o f e l i m i n a t i o n :t h a t i t i s t h e o n e a n d o n l y o n e g e n e r a l l y a p p l i c a b l e m e t h o d o ff o r m i n g h y p o t h e s e s w h i c h w i ll b o t h a c c o u n t f o r t h e o b s e r v e d a n dm a k e a c o n c r e te c o n j e c t u r e a b o u t t h e u n o b s e r v e d , w e a re l e ft w i tha f t e r w e h a v e e l i m i n a t e d e v e r y o t h e r m e t h o d a s u n su i t a b l e .

Le t m e b e g i n b y c o n s i d e ri n g f o r a m o m e n t t h e f o ll o w i n g r u le f o rt he s e le c ti o n o f o u r h y p o t h e s e s t o b e a d o p t e d :R : A l w a y s a s su m e t h a t th e u n o b se r v e d w i ll b e u n l ik e t h eo b se r v e d .2 0 4

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STRAWSON ON INDUCT IONR h a s b e e n c a ll ed " c o u n t e r 4 n d u c t i o n " . I t is o b v io u s t h a t w es h o u l d r e je c t t h e s u g g e s ti o n t h a t w e a d o p t R . N o t s o m u c h b e c a u s ei t i s n o t l i k e l y t o l e a d t o t h e c o r r e c t h y p o t h e s i s . B u t r a t h e r b e c a u s eo f s o m e t h in g w h i c h i s m u c h m o r e c l e a rl y e v id e n t , n a m e l y , b e c au s e Ri s s i mp l y n o t a u s e a b l e r u l e . G i v e n fo r e x a m p l e t h a t i n t h e p a s tN e w t o n ' s l a w o f g r a v i t y h a s b e e n o b e y e d R t e l l s u s n o m o r e t h a nt h a t i n t h e f u t u r e w e s h o u l d e x p e c t t h a t s o m e o t h e r l a w w i ll b eo b e y e d . B u t th e r e a re i n f i n it e ly m a n y l aw - li ke s t a t e m e n t s w h i c hd i f f er f r o m N e w t o n ' s l a w . R d o e s n o t l e ad u s t o t h e a d o p t i o n o f a n y

p a r t i c u la r o n e a m o n g t h e s e . W i th t h e h e l p o f R w e g e t n o w h e re a n dc a n f o r m n o o p i n i o n w h a t l a w w i ll b e o b s e r v e d t o g o v e r n t h e in t e r -a c t i o n o f ma s s e s .B u t w h a t a b o u t t h e r u le a l w a y s t o a s s u m e t h a t t he u n o b s e r v e dw i ll b e l i k e t h e o b s e rv e d ? T h i s a s i t st a n d s w o u l d n o t b e a n a d e q u a t eru le f o r t h e s e l e ct io n o f h y p o t h e s e s s i n ce i t l ea v e s u s w i t h t h e p ro b -l e m t h a t t h e re a r e i n f in i t e ly m a n y w a y s in w h i c h t h e o b s e r v e d m a ybe desc r ibed each desc r ip t ion g iv ing r i se t o a d i f fe ren t expec ta t ion o fw h a t t h e u n o b s e rv e d w i ll b e l i k e . T h is p r o b l e m h a s b e e n f i rs t d is -c o v e r e d b y H . J o f f r e y s a n d s u b s e q u e n t l y a s s o c i at e d w i t h t h e n a m eo f N . G o o d m a n . H i s v e r si o n o f t h e p r o b l e m is a s f o ll ow s : s u p p o s ew e d e f i n eG r u e = o b s e r v e d b e f o r e t h e y e a r 2 0 0 0 A . D . a n d f o u n d g r ee n o ro b s e r v e d a f t e r t h e y e a r 2 0 0 0 A J ) . a n d f o u n d b l u e .I t i s c l e a r t h a t a ll o u r p a s t o b s e rv a t i o n s c o n c e rn i n g t h e c o l o r o fe m e ra l d s p e rm i t u s n o lo ss t o s a y t h a t a l l e m e ra l d s h a v e b e e n g ru et h a n a ll e me ra l d s h a v e b e e n g r e e n . I f h o w e v e r w e d e s c r ib e o u re x p e r i e n c e s a s h a v i n g o b s e rv e d t h a t a l l e me ra l d s w e re g ru e a n da s s u me t h is t o b e t r u e i n t h e fu t u r e a s w e l l w e e x p e c t e m e ra l d s tol o o k d i f f e re n t a f t e r 2 0 0 0 A . D . , t h a n i f w e s u b s c ri b ed t o t h e h y p o -thes i s t ha t a l l em era lds a re g reen .A l a rg e n u m b e r o f s o l u t io n s h a s b e e n s u g g e s te d . H e re 1 s h al ld is cu ss o n l y t w o . G o o d m a n ' s o w n s o l u t io n i s t h a t t h e re i s a m e t h o d -o log ica l p r inc ip l e acco rd ing to wh ich , o f a l l t he poss ib l e p red ica t e sw e c o u l d a p p l y t o t h e s u b j e c ts u n d e r i n v e s ti g a ti o n , w e m u s t a p p l yo n l y t h e p r e d i c a t e w h i c h i s m o s t e n t r e n c h e d i n o u r l a n gu a g e a s' p ro j e c t i b l e ' . T h e re fo r e s in c e t h e p r e d i c a t e ' g r e e n ' is w e l l e n t r e n c h e di n t h e l an g u a g e w h e re a s ' g ru e ' is n o t , t h e h y p o t h e s i s ' A l l e m e ra l d sa re g ree n ' is p ro j ec t ib l e wh i l e 'A l l em era lds a re g r ue ' is no t .

G o o d m a n c o n f in e s h i m s e l f t o s t a ti n g it a s a f a c t t h a t e v e r y b o d yre g a rd s it a s n a t u r a l t o u s e th e m o s t e n t r e n c h e d p r e d i c a t e s o n l y ;h e ma k e s n o a t t e mp t t o d e f e n d t h i s p r i n c i p l e , I s h o u l d l i k e t o p o i n to u t h o w e v e r t h a t i f i n d e e d t h e q u e s t i o n s h o u l d a r i s e, w h e t h e r205

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G. SCHLESINGERw e s h o u l d u s e ( a ) t h e m o s t e n t r e n c h e d p r e d i c a te s in o u r p r o j e c t io n so r ( b ) we m a y ( o r s h o u l d ) u s e u n e n t r e n c h e d p r e d i c a t e s , t h e n b yj u s t o n c e m o r e b y a p p l y i n g th e v e r y c o m p e l l i n g p r in c i p le t h a t t h eh y p o t h e s i s - s e l e c t i o n - ru l e w e a d o p t m u s t b e a t l e a s t u s e a b l e i n t h es e n se t h a t i t l e ad s t o t h e s e l e c t io n o f a p a r t i c u l a r h y p o t h e s i s , w ea r r iv e a t t h e c o n c l u s io n t h a t ( a ) m u s t b e a d o p t e d . F o r i n c a s e w ea d o p t ( a ) , t h e n i n a s it u a ti o n w h e r e w e h a v e m a d e a la rg e n u m b e r o fo b s e r v a t io n s c o n c e r n in g t h e c o l o r o f e m e r a l d s , th e o n l y e n t r e n c h e dp re d i c a t e w e f i n d a p p l i c a b l e t o o u r p a s t e x p e r i e n c e is ' g r e e n ' a n d w ea re t h e re fo re l e d t o t h e c h o i c e o f t h e s p e c i f i c h y p o t h e s i s 'A l le m e r a l d s a r e g r e e n '. I f h o w e v e r w e a d o p t e d ( b ) t h e n w e w o u l d n o tepfid u p w i t h t h e c h o i c e o f a n y s p e c i f ic h y p o t h e s i s . Th e re a r e a f t e ra ll i n f i n i te l y m a n y u n e n t r e n c h e d p re d i c a t e s s u c h a s ' g ru e ' l w h i c h i sd e f in e d l ik e ' g r u e ' e x c e p t t h a t ' 2 0 0 1 A . D . ' r e p la c e s '2 0 0 0 A . D . ' a n d' G r u e ' 2 a n d s o o n . T h e n w e h a v e ' g r e d ' , 'g r a c k ' , a n d t h e l i k e w h e n' r e d ' a n d ' b l a c k ' r e p la c e s ' b l u e ' i n t h e d e f i n i t i o n . ( b ) p ro v i d e s u sw i t h n o i n s t ru c t i o n w h e t h e r w e s h o u l d s e le c t 'A l l e m e ra l d s a r eg ru e l ' , 'A l l e m e ra l d s a r e g r u e 2 ' 'A l l e m e ra l d s a r e g r e d ' o r w h a t .Th e o t h e r s o l u t i o n i s d u e t o S .F . B a rk e r a n d P . A c h i n s t e i n . sTh e y a d v a n c e t h e ru l e th a t w e m u s t u s e n o n -p o s i t i o n a l p r e d i c a t e so n l y in o u r p ro j e c t i o n s . B r i e f ly , t h e d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n p o s i t i o n a la n d n o n -p o s i t io n a l p r e d i c a t e s i s t h is : f o r a ll in s t a n c e s o f a p p l i c a t i o no f a n o n -p o s i t io n a l p r e d i c a t e a s in gle p i c t u r e o f r e p re s e n t a t i o n c a nb e g i v e n . O n t h e o t h e r h a n d a t l e a s t t w o d i f f e r e n t r e p re s e n t a t i o n sa re n e e d e d t o c o v e r a ll i n s ta n c e s o f a p p l i c a t i o n o f a p o s i t i o n a lp re d i c a t e . F o r e x a m p l e , a s in g le p a t c h o f g r e e n p a i n t i n t h e p r e s e n tc a n r e p re s e n t t h e c o l o u r o f a l l g r e e n t h i n gs i r r e s p e c t iv e o f t h e i rd a t e s ; b u t t w o p re s e n t p a t c h e s w i l l b e n e e d e d t o r e p re s e n t a l lg rue th ings : a g reen one fo r cases up to 2000 A .D. and a b lue onefo r c a s e s th e re a f t e r .I t is s e e n a t o n c e t h a t i n t h e c o n t e x t o f t h e e x a m p l e i n w h i c hG o o d m a n ' s p r o b l e m h a s b e e n r a i s e d t h e r u l e s u g g e s t e d b y B a r k e rand Ach ins t e in i s adequa te : i t d i squa l i f i e s a l l such p red ica t es a s' g r u e ' l , ' g r u e ' 2 , 'g r e d ' , g r a c k ' , e t c . a n d p e r m i t s t h e u s e o f ' g r e e n 'o n l y . O n t h e o t h e r h a n d , t h e c o n t r a r y r u l e w h i c h s a y s t h a t w es h o u l d u s e n o n -p o s i t i o n a l p r e d i c a t e s w o u l d b e u s e le s s fo r it w o u l dl e av e u s u n d e c i d e d w h e t h e r w e sh o u l d a d o p t 'A l l e m e ra l d s a r e g r e e n 'o r 'A l l e m e ra l d s a re g ru e 2 ' a n d s o o n .

I d o n o t w i s h to c l ai m t h a t e i t h e r o f th e t w o p r o p o s e d s o l u ti o n sh a v e t o b e a c c e p t e d . A l l I w a n t e d t o d o is t o i ll u s t ra t e t h a t a s o l u ti o nw h i c h m a y b e a d v a n c e d w i t h a n y p l a u si b il it y a t a ll m u s t b e b a s e d o nt h e p r i n c ip l e t h a t w e r e j e c t a n y ru l e t h a t d o e s n o t h e l p u s t o s e l e c t a2 0 6

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STRAWSON ON INDU(VFIONp a r ti c u la r h y p o t h e s i s . I t is m y c o n t e n t i o n t h a t a n y o t h e r so l u t io nt h a t m a y l o o k r e a so n a b l e w il l p r e su p p o se t h is p r in c i p l e . I t i s a l so m yc o n t e n t i o n t h a t t h i s p r i n c ip l e u l t i m a t e l y le a d s t o t h e r e j e c t io n o fa l l r u l es excep t the se t o f ru les which cons t i tu t e induc t ive r eason-ing as we kno w i t .

VI h a v e n o t c o n s i d e r e d h y p o t h e s i s - s e l e c t i o n r u l e s w h i c h r e l y o n

e m p i r i c a l d a t a o t h e r t h a n t h o se w h i c h t h e h y p o t h e s i s t o b e s e l e c te dis t o a c c o u n t f o r . H y p o t h e s i s - s e le c t i o n - ru l e s w h i c h r e q u ir e e m p i r i c a ld a t a y e t t o b e p r o d u c e d e . g. 'C h o o s e t h e h y p o t h e s i s t h a t a c c o u n t sf o r t h e o b se r v e d d a t a a n d w h i c h c o m e s f ir s t i n t o t h e m i n d o f p e r so nP w h ic h r e q u ir e s t h a t w e o b t a in i n f o r m a t i o n a b o u t P ' s t h o u g h t s , o r' C h o o s e t h e h y p o t h e s i s t h a t a c c o u n t s f o r t h e o b s e r v e d d a t a b y i n t e r-p r e t i n g t h e f l ig h t o f a c e r t a i n b i r d ' a re t o b e e x c l u d e d f o r s e v e ra lr easons . F i r s t o f a l l, as 1 have a l r ead y im pl i ed b e fo re , genera l app l i -c a b i l i t y i s a b a s i c d e s i r a t u m i n t h e m e t h o d w e sh o u l d w a n t t o a d o p tf o r s e l e ct in g o u r h y p o t h e se s . N o w a h y p o t h e s i s -s e l e c t io n - r u l e w h i c hr e q u i r e s n o o t h e r e m p i r i c a l d a t a t h a n t h o se t h e h y p o t h e s i s t o b ese l e c t e d i s t o a c c o u n t f o r i s e q u a l l y a v a il a b le t o e v e r y o n e in t h ep o s se ss i o n o f t h e se d a t a w h i l e w i t h r e sp e c t t o e x t r a n e o u s e m p i r i c a li n f o r m a t i o n d i f f e r e n t p e o p l e a r e d i f f e r e n t l y s i t u a t e d ; so m e m a y h a v en o a c c e s s t o i t a t a l l . S e c o n d l y , b e f o r e w e h a v e a d o p t e d t h e s e t o fp r inc ip les which we sha l l u se in em pi r i ca l r eason ing we can no ta s su m e t h a t a c e r t a i n e m p i r i c a l m e t h o d w i l l i n d e e d p r o d u c e t h er e q u i re d r e su lt s . F o r e x a m p l e w e c a n n o t e x p e c t t h a t a g iv e n b i r dw i ll f l y o r e v e n j u s t t h a t i t w ill c o n t i n u e t o e x i s t t h e n e x t m o m e n tu n le s s w e h a v e a l re a d y a d o p t e d s o m e m e t h o d f o r t h e s e le c ti o n o fh y p o t h e se s w h i c h l e a d t o t h e c o n c l u s i o n w a r r a n t i n g su c h a n e x -p e c t a t i o n .R a t h e r t h a n c o n s i d e ri n g f u r t h e r e x a m p l e s le t u s a s su m e t h a t a n yr u le c o n c o c t e d b y a n y o n e a n d n o t b e l o n g i n g t o t h e s e t o f ru l es i na c t u a l u se in i n d u c t i v e r e a so n i n g c a n b e sh o w n t o b e i n a d e q u a t e f o rw h a t e v e r t h e n a t u r e o f t h e u n i v e rse , u p o n g r a sp in g t h e m e a n i n g o fthe ru le we a t once r ea l i ze tha t i t i s unuseab le , and see how th i she lps us in asnwer ing the ques t ion r a i sed concern ing S t r awson ' st h e si s . To t h e q u e s t i o n , w h a t w e r e t h e o b j e c t iv e g r o u n d s u p o n w h i c ht h e c o n v e n t i o n t o r e g a rd a b e l ie f a r ri v e d a t b y i n d u c t i v e r e a so n i n g a swel l - es t ab l i shed was adop ted in the f i r s t p l ace the answer i s : i t i st h e o n l y f e a s i b l e c o n v e n t i o n w e c o u l d h a v e s i n c e a n y a l t e r n a t i v e s e t

2 0 7

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G. SCHLESINGERo f r u le s f o r r e a s o n i n g , i s n o t a d e q u a t e f o r a d o p t i o n . T o t i l e q u e s t i o nw h a t w o u l d h a p p e n i f t h e c o n v e n t i o n w e r e c h a n g e d , th e answer i st h a t w e a r e d e a l i n g h e r e n o t w i t h an a r b i t r a r y c o n v e n t i o n b u t o n ew h o s e r e a s o n a b l e n e s s i s i n h e r e n t i n t h e n a t u r e o f t h i n g s . T h i s f a c t n oo n e c a n c h a n g e ; i t w i ll a l w a y s b e t r u e t h a t t il e c o n v e n t i o n s a n c t i o n -i n g t h e p r e s e n t r u le s o f i n d u c t i o n i s t h e c o n v e n t i o n r e a s o n i m p o s e su p o n u s .

W h a t w e m a y s a y t h e n i s t h a t S t r a w s o n i s q u i t e r ig h t i n c l a i m i n gt h a t i t i s a u n iv e r s a l c o n v e n t i o n t o r e g a r d i t ' r e a s o n a b l e t o e x p e c tt h a t p ' i n c a s e p i s th e c o n c l u s i o n a r r i v e d a t b y t h e u s e o f t h e ru l e sg o v e r n i n g i n d u c t i v e r e a s o n i n g . H o w e v e r , i t is n o t a n a r b i t r a r y c o n -v e n t i o n n o r o n e m e r e l y a r i si ng o u t o f o u r p s y c h o l o g i c a l n e e d s . I f w ea r e t o a g r e e o n a n y r u l e s a t a l l t h e n t h e s e a r e t h e o n l y v i a b l e ru l e s w ec a n h a v e .

UNIVERSITY OF NORTH CAROLINACHAPEL HILL, NC 275 ! 4

USA

N O T E SI P.E. Strawson, Introduction to Logical Theory (London, 1952), pp. 248-

263.a Ibid,m p. 249.s Ibid. ,p. 262.4 Ibid., p. 249.s I b i d . , p . 259.Ibid . , p. 257.7 Philosophical Quarterly, July, 1979.s 'On The New Riddle of Induction' , The Philosophy of Science,

P.H. Nidditch Ed. (Oxford, 1968).

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