Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes

1 02 May 2011

Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes

Guus Velders

Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes | 02 May 2011

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Chapter 5: WMO/UNEP Ozone assessment: 2010●A focus on information and options for policymakers:

– Metrics: update of lifetimes, GWPs, ODPs– New scenarios of ODSs from now-2100– Options for policymakers to reductions in ODSs– Impacts of other human activities– Scenarios of HFCs as ODS replacements– World avoided scenarios

●Ozone impacts and climate impacts

●Authors: John Daniel, Guus Velders (CLAa), Olaf Morgenstern, Darin Toohey, Tim Wallington, Donald Wuebbles (LA), and many others


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World avoided for ozone layer●Montreal Protocol is working

– Large increases in mixing ratios prevented

– Large ozone depletion prevented at poles, mid-latitudes and equator

– Large increase in UV-B radiation prevented

– Increase in adverse effects prevented


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World avoided for climate●Climate protection by Montreal

Protocol

●Large contribution to reduce greenhouse gas emissions– ODSs potent greenhouse gases– By 2010, decrease in GWP-weighted

emissions of 10 GtCO2-eq/yr

– About 5 times Kyoto Protocol target for 2008-2012

– Reduction in radiative forcing of 0.23 W/m2 (13% of CO2) by 2010


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New scenarios constructed●Constraints for 1980-2008:

– Observed mixing ratios 1980-2008– Rate of change + lifetime historic annual emissions– Bank per species for 2008 from TEAP (bottom up)– Production reported to UNEP for 1986-2008

●Assumptions for baseline 2009-2100:– Montreal Protocol limits– HCFCs extrapolation of historic growth in production– Annual release from bank = emission / bank

●Options:– Zero production; emission; bank destruction


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Lifetimes of halocarbons●Revision:

– CFC-114 from 300 to 190 yr– CFC-115 from 1700 to 1020 yr– HFC-23 from 270 to 222 yr– Only small changes to others HFCs and the HCFCs

●Lifetimes affect:– GWPs, ODPs– Emissions derived from observations– Scenarios for future ODS concentrations and ozone layer– Closure of budget (bottom-up vs top-down)

●CFC-11 (lifetime now 45 yr) important for all CFCs●CCl4 uncertainty in budget


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Future mixing ratios ODSs●Current baseline in black● Old (WMO, 2003, 2007) baselines in

red

●CFCs:– All mixing ratios decreasing– Small change cf 2003/2007

●CCl4 (carbon tetrachlorine)– Decreasing– Significant change cf 2003/2007

●CH3CCl3 (methyl chloroform)– Approaching zero


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Future mixing ratios ODSs●HCFCs:

– Increasing use in developing countries

– Increasing mixing ratios– Changes due to accelerated

phase-out of 2007

●Halon 1211 decreasing●Halon 1301 still increasing

(slightly)


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EESC: Equivalent Effective Stratospheric Chlorine

●Metric for ozone layer depletion

●EESC returns to 1980 levels by– 2046 for midlatitude– 2073 for Antarctic

●Zero emissions past 2010– 2033 (13 year earlier than

baseline)


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Comparing ODS scenarios by different metrics

● ODP-emissions - EESC

● GWP-emissions - RF


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Impacts of new options●Success of the Montreal Protocol:

– ODS options have less impact on future ozone than what has already been achieved

– Other compounds and activities become relatively more important:› Climate changes through direct and indirect effects:

CO2, CH4, N2O: temperature, dynamics, chemistry

› Very-short lived species (VSLS)› Geoengineering by injection of sulphur in stratosphere› Emissions from rockets and aviations› Emissions related to biofuels


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Hypothetical cases for accelerating recoveryChange EESC Change ozone Change emissions

GtCO2-eq/yr2010 Bank capture and destructionCFCs 11% 0.13% 7.9Halons 14% 0.15% 0.4HCFCs 4.8% 0.07% 4.9

Production stop after 2010HCFCs 8.8% 0.15% 13.2CH3Br for QPS 6.7% 0.09% 0.002

Emission stop after 2010CCl4 7.6% 0.9

CH3CCl3 0.1% 0.004


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Hypothetical casesChange EESC Change ozone Change emissions

GtCO2-eq/yr2010 Bank capture and destructionCFCs 11% 0.13% 7.9Halons 14% 0.15% 0.4HCFCs 4.8% 0.07% 4.9

Production stop after 2010HCFCs 8.8% 0.15% 13.2CH3Br for QPS 6.7% 0.09% 0.002

Emission stop after 2010CCl4 7.6% 0.9

CH3CCl3 0.1% 0.004

HFCs (more scenario 0% 0% up to 170N2O dependent) 0.35% 130


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HFCs as ODS replacement●Global phase-out of CFCs and HCFCs

Much of application demand for refrigeration, air conditioning, heating and thermal-insulating foam production to be met by HFCs Demand for HFCs increasing globally

●New scenarios for HFC use through 2020 or 2050

●HFC growth expected especially in developing countries●HCFC phase-out 2013-2040


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HFC scenarios: emissions and radiative forcing●Scenarios:

– Non-intervention (BAU)– Intervention through techn.

developments, policy incentives

– Climate benefits can be offset by projected increases in HFCs by 2050

– HFC emissions can reach 9-19% of CO2 by 2050


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Comparing emissions by different metrics

●Emissions weighted by:– Mass– GWP– ODP


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Thank you for your attention

Montreal Protocol initiated steps

CO2

Isobutane

HFO-1234yf

Mineral wool

…

CFCs HCFCs HFCs ???

Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes

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