This project has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no 613194

EU-InnovatE: Sustainable Lifestyles & Green Economy in Europe to 2050

SCENARIOS FOR SUSTAINABLE LIFESTYLES IN 2050: ASSESSING SHORT- AND LONG-TERM OPPORTUNITIES AND OBSTACLES

25 OCTOBER 2016

Agenda

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15:00 Webinar opens

15:05 Introduction & contextSimon Pickard, Director General, ABIS

15:10 Presentation of emerging evidence & findingsGemma Adams & Louise Armstrong, Forum for the Future

15:35 Questions and comments

15:55 Summary & forthcoming events

16:00 Webinar closes

Context: Sustainable Lifestyles at EU Level

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Strategic policy objectives:

1. Promoting smart, sustainable and inclusive growth in the single market

2. Managing an ageing population while reducing current levels of energy, transport and resource use

3. Rethinking consumption / production systems as part of a transition to low-carbon economy by 2050

Ref: SPREAD 2050 (www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu)

EU Policy Research Questions

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i. Links between economic, ecological, human and technological systems and their influence on consumers' values and behaviour

ii. Short and long-term obstacles and opportunities associated with the transition to European sustainable lifestyles and green economy

iii. New ways and new business models to manage natural resources while reducing consumption and improving quality of life

iv. Prospects for sustainable lifestyles and the green economy (i.e. trends up to 2050)

EU-InnovatE Consortium

Key Idea

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“ ... investigatethe creative, innovative and entrepreneurial roles of usersin developing novel sustainable products, services and systems (Sustainable Lifestyles 2.0).”

Towards User Innovation

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Sustainable lifestyles and the rise of the citizen as ‘innovator’

Main messages

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Glimpse into the findings

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Four Scenarios: Sustainable Lifestyles in 2050

Scenario boundaries8000 kg material footprint per person (current European average is 27,000 to 40,000 per person)

Key global environmental boundaries are upheld, relating to (e.g. climate change, biodiversity loss, freshwater use).

Minimum requirements for socially sustainable development recognised worldwide

(e.g. inequality, life expectancy, education).

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Inventing consumerism (1850-1913)

Contested Consumerism (1914-1950)

Technocratic Consumerism (1950-1989)

Participative Consumerism (1989-present)

Four Scenarios: Sustainable Lifestyles in 2050

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Health | Wealth | Citizenship | Economy | Environmentpathways | user roles on pathways | personas | future artifacts

Co-developed Scenarios

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Research and workshops with users, entrepreneurs, citizens and communities who are innovating aspects of lifestyles today

‘Future Shapers’: a network of citizens innovating in Europe

Four Scenarios: Sustainable Lifestyles in 2050

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What is the transition path to these radically different futures? What distinguishes them from our society in 2016?

What can we learn from these (possible) future shifts, to inform our approach to change today?

Exploring the radical shifts needed, to expand our horizons

Four Scenarios: Sustainable Lifestyles in 2050

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How does change happen? What contribution could ‘User Innovators’ make to the transition, and how significant is it?

How might we support ‘User Innovators’ to accelerate or deepen the change they can create?

FuturePast Today

“ ... investigatethe creative, innovative and entrepreneurial roles of usersin developing novel sustainable products, services and systems (Sustainable Lifestyles 2.0).”

Innovation in the past: users incidentally innovating products

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xBox | users hacking & innovating

Mountain bikes | new market created by users tinkering with bikes

Ford car | early customers making modifications

(User?) Innovation today: dedicated spaces & subcultures

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Growth of maker & coworking spaces |

proliferation of shared work and make spaces all over the world, cultivating a culture of

entrepreneurship, often technology and community

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Innovation today: organisations supporting others to innovate

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BoKlok | Skanska,Ikea and communities co-designing and building new homes

Unilever Foundry | supporting sustainable ventures & entrepreneurs

Marks and Sparks | M&S providing

resources to community groups

Innovation today: into the realm of governance

20Dutch Citizens | Winning a lawsuit against the government to act on climate change

Innovation in the future: impacting all aspects of our lives

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Users/ citizens/ communities innovating everything

2032 | Clara | PolandClara is a ‘Trust Architect’ in fashion. She knows she will develop a severe health condition so is using her professional skills to galvanise people that share her genetic anomaly to work together to fill gaps in research and to co-design the care services they need; using virtual networks and citizen science and funding platforms.

2019 | Sebastien | SpainSebastien’s fabrication business is failing because regulation to protect intellectual property and data privacy aren’t keeping up with the pace of technological change. As traditional lobbying is pointless, he has teamed up with other businesses around the world, to develop a digital ‘self-surveillance’ system that can detect, track and reclaim lost income.

In 2026, this gives rise to ‘Commons Policing’ in which carbon emissions are openly tracked and regulated around the world, in real-time.

Users/ citizens/ communities innovating everything

2032 | Clara | PolandClara is a ‘Trust Architect’ in fashion. She knows she will develop a severe health condition so is using her professional skills to galvanise people that share her genetic anomaly to work together to fill gaps in research and to co-design the care services they need; using virtual networks and citizen science and funding platforms.

2019 | Sebastien | SpainSebastien’s fabrication business is failing because regulation to protect intellectual property and data privacy aren’t keeping up with the pace of technological change. As traditional lobbying is pointless, he has teamed up with other businesses around the world, to develop a digital ‘self-surveillance’ system that can detect, track and reclaim lost income.

In 2026, this gives rise to ‘Commons Policing’ in which carbon emissions are openly tracked and regulated around the world, in real-time.

Role of users in changing and developing systems

• With digital data, platforms and services everyone will have the tools to communicate their ideas, build prototypes, collaborate and use them to innovate new ways of organising, living and working - even new philosophies & beliefs.

• The potential for what can be innovated by whom is diversifying

• At speed and scale.

• Radical influence because they operate across traditional boundaries; driven by different motivations.

• On all pathways, they (co) create change by cultivating new cultural aspirations and goals; and new forms of governance.

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How we can use the scenarios

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Theories of change | Outcomes | Strategies | Programme Designchallenge your assumptions | collaborative tool | generate radical ideas | identify impact measures

Raises questions for creating change and impact

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What change are we seeking?

Change is complex and uncertain and interventions have indirect impacts.

Are we ignoring or embracing this in our approach to creating long-term social and environmental change?

To what extent are we acting systemically to influence lifestyles?

Are we considering the wider context needed for us to realise our goals?

Raises questions for creating change and impact

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Engaging ‘User Innovators’...

Users have the potential to play both enabling and resisting roles in societal change.

How might we unlock the potential of users to contribute to change?

What attention are we giving to the ‘innovator’ vs. the ‘innovation’ in our quest for impact?

Is ‘User Innovation’ always a good thing?

Glimpse into the findings

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Summary & Forthcoming Events

Friday 25th afternoon - London

Get hands on with the scenarios, explore what they can do for you

This project has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no 613194

Questions & Feedback from Participants

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Summary & Forthcoming Events

FINAL CONFERENCE

✓ TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 22

✓ HOSTED BY ABIS @ ATELIER DES TANNEURS IN BRUSSELS

✓ EXPLORATION OF PATHWAYS TO ACCELERATE SUSTAINABILITY ENTREPRENEURSHIP

✓ NO CONFERENCE FEES!

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For More Information

www.euinnovate.com

This project has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no 613194

Thank you for your time!

Citizens innovating everything

Innovation is needed at different ‘levels’ of systems, with an emphasis on cultural changes to the social structures, goals and paradigm of sub-systems (e.g. food and energy) and of society at large

1. Product and service innovations2. Place and network-related innovation3. Innovation of governance and social structures4. Paradigm innovation