scenarios are futures for the head …visions are futures ......scenarios are futures for the head...
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Transcript of scenarios are futures for the head …visions are futures ......scenarios are futures for the head...
scenariosarefuturesforthehead….…visionsarefuturesfortheheart.
~ClemBezold
Fromone…
whatmakesupyourpreferredfuture?onalargepost-it,CLEARLYwrite3visiondetails….BESPECIFIC!eg,ratherthan‘peaceonearth’>’handgunsbanned’Ratherthan‘childrenvalued,’>everychildguaranteedsafeshelter,cleanwater,sufficientfood,andeducation’
passyourlistofpreferredfuturedetailstoyourleftrecipients–tickthoseitemsyoualsolisted✔star thoseitemsyouwishedyou’dlisted!★nowpassthemagaintoyourleft…andsoonaroundthetable,untiltheyreturnhome.
…tomany.
1955 1955
1961 1961
FredPolak,TheImageoftheFuture(Dutchoriginal)
EliseBoulding,TheImageoftheFuture(Englishtranslation)
The rise and fall of images of the future precedes or accompanies the rise and fall of cultures. As long as a society's image of the future is positive and flourishing, the flower of the culture is in full blossom. Once the image of the future begins to decay and lose its vitality, however, the culture cannot long survive.
Fred. L. Polak, The Image of the Future, 1961, vol. 1, p. 50.
195os 195os
1950s 1950s
GastonBergerLaprospective+territorialprospectiveBertranddeJouvenel
MichelGodet
1970 1970
1980 1980
WarrenZiegler,CommunityVisioning
Boulding andZiegler,ImagingtheFuture
asaWorldwithoutWeapons
shareworstfears– converttobesthopesindividualmeditativevisualization>>>posterfindfellowtravellers by‘touring’individualvisionsself-identifiedworkinggroupssynthesizefromindividualtocollectivebycollatingsharedgoals,whattheyadmireadddetail– fleshoutthedaytodayexperiencebackcast – detailspecificeventsnecessarytoachieve
meditativevisualization
1987 1987
1987 1987
RobertJungk withRuediger LutzandNorbertMuellert,
FutureWorkshops
designedtoimprovesquatters’ communities,assumesnoresourcesprepare– allstakeholders,rulesofplaysolveapresentproblem,identifyviaacatharsisfantasizeavisionarysolutionimplementbyacceptingdesignconstraintsofminimalresourcestospurlocalcreativitycommitbysigninguptoact,withadeadline
critique/fantasy/implement
1987 1987
1987 1987
DavidL.CooperriderandSureshSrivastva,“Appreciativeinquiryinorganizationallife”
buildonstrengths&successes
1995 1995
1995 1995
MarvinWeisbord andSandraJanoff,FutureSearch
sharedhistorytimelineexternaltrendsandcurrentandpossiblefutureresponsesprouds andsorries re:topicorproblemidealfuturedescribedasifitwereaccomplishedidentifyandconfirmcommongroundcommitbysigninguptoact,withadeadline
Past,present,idealfuture– act
1998 1998
1998 1998
Sohail Inayatullah,CausalLayeredAnalysis
analyseproblemdowntomyths–choosealternativesandbuildup
2004 2004
2004 2004
RichardLum withMichelleBowman,VergeGeneralPracticeFramework
Howshouldwecreategoods,services
- andsocialroles?
Howshouldweacquireandusethegoodsandserviceswecreate?
Howshouldwerelatetootherpeople,to
organizationsandcommunities,andtonature?
Howshouldwedefineourselvesandtheworldaroundus?Whatshouldourvalues,paradigmsencompass?
Howshouldweconnectpeople,placesandthings,andtransmitvalueandmeaning?
Howshouldwedestroyvalueandwhatshouldbeourreasonsfordoingso?
howshouldwe…?on6dimensions
2013 2013
2013 2013
BillSharpe,ThreeHorizons:
ThePatterningofHope
scaleandscopeofpatternsoflife1st currentpatterns/assumptions– stable(faux)3rd visionaryfutures- transformational2nd entrepreneurialspaceofmessytransitions,experiments,competitions,adaptations- unsettledpatternsofthepresentgivingwaytopatternsoftransformationalpossibilitiesviaentrepreneurialinitiatives
mindsets andpatternsofactivity
2016 2016
2016 2016
TanjaHichert,Mānoa forVisioning:
SeedsofaGoodAnthropocene
impactcascadestovision
Leadership leadershipRobertGreenleaf,“TheServantasLeader,”1970
JamesMcGregorBurns,Leadership,1978PeterM.Senge,TheFifthDiscipline,1990
BennisandNanus,Leaders:StrategiesforTakingCharge,1997
Leadership leadership
“bisociation:”ArthurKoestler,TheActofCreation
“intersection:”Frans Johansson,TheMediciEffect
Theactofcombiningdissimilarelements;integratingtwopreviouslydissimilarandunassociatedframesofreference.
turbulenceandcreativity
• bespecific:focusonfinedetail;apersonalperspective,achangeinyourcommunity.
• identifyaconcern,aworry,anirritation.• transformittojoy–• reverseitandexpressitassomethingthat
makesyousmileindelight,e.g.,oldcommunityplanningconflict>>newcommunityplanningconnectsmediationand foresight!oldbatteries…norecycling>>biodegradablebatteriesfertilizehouseplants!
frompresentproblemstojoy
• frompresentproblemstojoy -generateatleastfourfuturejoysbyreversingpresentirritationsandwriteEACHonapost-it
• tradeyourjoy-tradeonepost-itwiththepersononyourleft,anotherwiththepersononyourright,thethirdwiththepersoninfrontofyou,andthefourthwiththepersonbehindyou.
4stepstosharedjoys
• frompresentproblemstojoy -generateatleastfourfuturejoysbyreversingpresentirritationsandwriteEACHonapost-it
• tradeyourjoy-tradeonepost-itwiththepersononyourleft,anotherwiththepersononyourright,thethirdwiththepersoninfrontofyou,andthefourthwiththepersonbehindyou.
4stepstosharedjoys…
• createnewjoy-thinkaboutthejoyyoureceivedandconsiderthejoysyougaveaway>>whatnewideasemergefromtheircombination?
• shareyournewjoy-turntooneortwoofthepeoplenearyouandsharethenew ideasyougeneratedforapreferredfuture.
…4stepstosharedjoys
Frompresentproblemstojoy:
Tradeyourjoys:
Createnewjoy:
Shareyournewjoy:
postyourjoys!
Whyfightthe“natural”(oh,weaselly word!)orderofthings?
Why?Becauseofthis– onefineday,apurelypredatoryworldshall consumeitself.Yes,theDevilshalltakethehindmostuntiltheforemostis thehindmost.Inanindividual,selfishnessuglifies thesoul;forthehumanspecies,selfishnessisextinction.
Isthisthedoomwrittenwithinournature?
CloudAtlas
CloudAtlasIfwebelieve thathumanitymaytranscendtooth&claw;ifwebelieve diversraces&creedscansharethisworldaspeaceablyastheorphanssharetheircandlenuttree,ifwebelieve leadersmustbejust,violencemuzzled,poweraccountable&therichesoftheEarth&itsOceanssharedequitably,suchaworldwillcometopass.Iamnotdeceived.Itisthehardestofworldstomakereal.Torturousadvanceswonovergenerationscanbelostbyasinglestrokeofamyopicpresident’spenoravaingloriousgeneral’ssword.
AlifespentshapingaworldIwant [mychildren]toinherit,notoneIfear [mychildren]shallinherit,thisstrikesmeasalifeworthliving.
Mayyoulivetoseeyourvisionrealized.
APFProDev|MaryWardHouseTuesday,7November2017Dr.WendyLSchultz
WendySchultz
Abriefhistoryanddescriptionofvisioning
tools
Dr.SchultzearnedbothherMAandPhDinAlternativeFuturesattheUniversityofHawai’iatMānoa,andhasoverthirtyyearsofforesightpracticeallovertheworld.ShelivesinOxford,England.
