Scenarios and internationalenvironmental assessments

17 April 2009Rob Swart

Alterra

Scenarios and international environmental problems

The effectiveness of environmental assessments The role of scenarios as elements of in

international environmental assessments Two cases:

IPCC emissions scenarios Scenarios of the Global Scenario Group

Conclusions and some final thoughts

Assessment comprises the analysis and review of informationderived from research for the purpose of helping someone in aposition of responsibility to evaluate possible actions, or thinkabout a problem. Assessment means assembling, summarizing,organizing, interpreting, and possibly reconciling pieces ofexisting knowledge, and communicating them so that they arerelevant and helpful to an intelligent but inexpert decision-maker(Parson, 1995)

Integrated assessment is a reflective and iterative participatoryprocess that links knowledge (science) and action (policy)regarding complex global change issues such as acidification andclimate change. IA can be defined as an interdisciplinary processof combining, interpreting and communicating knowledge fromdiverse scientific disciplines in such a way that the wholecause–effect chain of a problem can be evaluated from a synopticperspective with two characteristics: (i) it should have addedvalue compared to single disciplinary assessment; and (ii) itshould provide useful information to decision makers (Rotmansand Dowlatabadi, 1997)

What is “effective”?

Effectiveness is undefined, different from differentperspectives; examples from GEA:

If the information is explicitly used in internationalnegotiations (e.g. IIASA RAINS for LRTAP, IPCC byUNFCCC)

If it influences actors’ agendas, strategies or decisions(e.g., Ozone TEAP)

If it sets R&D priorities, standards for monitoring (e.g.,IPCC Special Report on Land-use and Forestry)

If it frames the issue, affects the terms of debate (MEA)

Three criteria for effective assessment Scientific credibility Are top experts involved? Is all relevant state-of-the-art knowledge included? Is the assessment produced by/accepted by the international

scientific community?

Saliency, or policy relevance Is the assessment tied to a policy-process with high attention

level? Is the assessment driven by policy questions (no scientific

overview)? Are users involved or consulted?

Political legitimacy Are stakeholders involved or their concerns taken into account? Is the process of the assessment perceived to be fair in terms of

authority, responsibility and equality of involvement?

Conceptual Framework for thinking about Effective Assessments

Source: GEA project, Cash and Clarke, 2001

What are scenarios? Two of many defintions IPCC: Future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are the product of

very complex dynamic systems, determined by driving forces such asdemographic development, socio-economic development, andtechnological change. Their future evolution is highly uncertain.Scenarios are alternative images of how the future might unfold andare an appropriate tool with which to analyse how driving forces mayinfluence future emission outcomes and to assess the associateduncertainties. They assist in climate change analysis, includingclimate modeling and the assessment of impacts, adaptation, andmitigation. The possibility that any single emissions path will occur asdescribed in scenarios is highly uncertain. (-> mechanistic, model-oriented)

Global Scenario Group: Scenario analysis offers structured accountsof possible long-range futures. The value of scenarios lies not in theircapacity to predict the future, but in their ability to provide insight intothe present. By helping to identify drivers of change, the implicationsof current trajectories and options for action, scenarios bring thefuture to bear in today’s decisions. Scenarios enlarge the canvassfor reflection to include a holistic perspective over space, issues andtime. (-> narrative, action-oriented)

Scenarios connect stories and models

What can scenarios contribute? Scenarios can raise awareness of uncertainties and

can test the robustness of different policy strategies. Scenarios can contribute to communicate the range of

perceptions and can challenge prevailing mind sets. The likelihood of a scenario is subjective and differs

among various scientists and policy makers. Policy makers have to decide what economic and

ecological risks are acceptable. They can include elements that cannot be formally

modeled Scenarios are context-specific and should not be

applied for another use than for which they have beendeveloped

Some examples of global scenario exercises

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC, 1990, 1994, 2000)

Global Scenario Group (1997, 1998, 2002) Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005) UNEP Global Environmental Outlook (1997,

2000, 2002, 2007) Shell (1992, 1995, 1998, 2001, 2005, 2008)

Special Report on Emissions Scenarios(SRES)

• A project requested by the IPCC(government delegations)

• No “additional” climate policies

• Main objective: input into climatemodels

• Strongly based on model analysis,but as derived from narratives (Shell)

• Expanded regional participation:both in author team and in “openprocess” and review

Development of scenarios by the IPCC

Scientific review +“open process”

Scientific reviewNo serious review

6 modeling teams withopen process,regional and sectoraldetail

US/NL team with 2integrated models

US/NL team with 2integrated models

No climate policy(“post-SRES”stabilization in 3rd

assessment)

No climate policyBusiness-as-Usualplus policy cases

SRES A1, A2, B1, B2IS92a-ePolicy-related names

3rd, 4th assessment2nd Assessment1st Assessment

For 5th assessment new processencouraged/facilitated but not managed by IPCC

IPCC Population Scenarios: model input

IPCC Economic Growth: model input

Main output: emissions of GreenhouseGases

Scenarios and internationalenvironmental assessments

End of Part 1 - presentation continues in Module 1.2