Scenarios and Extreme Events
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Scenarios and Extreme Events
Ernestine Fu | CEE 129
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Presentation Outline
Global Climate Change and Extreme Events
Scenario Planning
Issues in Analyzing Extreme Events UncertaintyMultiple and Compound Extremes Impacts Dependent on the Local Situation
Scenario Hurricane Ernestine on Gulfport
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“Climate change will further magnify disaster risk. There is major concern that increased frequency and intensity of extreme hydro-meteorological events will result in a corresponding increase in the number or magnitude of disasters.”
- Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED)
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Rising Frequency of Extreme Events
Severity of Event
Frequencyof event
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Rising Frequency of Extreme Events
Severity of Event
Frequencyof event
X
Y1
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Rising Frequency of Extreme Events
Severity of Event
Frequencyof event
X
Y1
Y2
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Hurricanes: Predicted Increase
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Hurricanes: Observed Increase
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Solution? Adaptation and Mitigation.
Adaption: reactively adjusting to the impacts of changing climate
Mitigation: attempts to low the process of global climate change by lowering GHG levels in the atmosphere
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Scenario:“a story about what
happened in the future”
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Issues in Analyzing Extreme Events
1. Uncertainty
2. Multiple and Compound Extremes
3. Impacts Dependent on the Local Situation
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Issue: Uncertainty in Data
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Issue: Uncertainty in Terminology“Events that are “rare* at a particular place and time of
year.” “Rare” = the highest or lowest 10%.
Hurricanes Floods Storm Surges
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Issue: Multiple and Compound Extremes
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Issue: Impacts Dependent on Local Situation
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Hurricane
Ernestine
on Gulfport
Category 4
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Case Study: Hurricane Katrina
August 2005
Category 5
175 mph winds
25-28 feet storm surge
1,200 fatalities
$90.9 billion (2011 USD) damage
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Case Study: Hurricane Katrina
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Case Study: Hurricane Katrina
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Case Study: Hurricane Katrina
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Hurricane Ernestine (Category 4) Impacts
Winds: 131-155 mph | Catastrophic damage
Damage to warehouses
Debris and containers washed inland impact the city and surrounding area
Structural damage to top floors of apartment buildings
Power outages for weeks to possibly months
Nearly all commercial signage, fences, and canopies destroyed
Very high risk of injury or death to people due to flying objects and falling debris
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Gulfport Storm Surge
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Scenario: Gulfport Storm Surge
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Scenario: Gulfport Storm Surge
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Scenario: Gulfport Storm Surge
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There’s
no benefit
to inaction.