Scenario planning interventions in organizations

An analysis of the causes of success and failureGeorge Wrighta, Kees van der Heijdenb, George Burtb, Ron Bradfieldb, George Cairns

Carlos Eduardo Cunha

ceac@cin.ufpe.br

Index

Inertia Giraffe in quicksand Case of success Conclusions Questions?!

Inertia

Commitment to current strategy will grow over time Operational process become deeply embedded →

mental model’s Mental models:

prevent managers from sensing problems; delay changes in strategy; lead to action that is ineffective in a new

environment. In simpler, less turbulent environments, inertia may

allow managers to focus on the most important issues

Inertia

Inertia

Vigilance Careful search and use of information; There is better solution, and time for debate and search.

Hypervigilance May have better solution, but not enough time.

Defensive avoidance There is no better solution than current course.

Procrastination, buck passing, and bolstering.

Unconflicted adherence Do not change course.

Unconflicted change Change current course to unthreatened.

Inertia

Scenario Planning Intervention would be most appropriate after there is recognition that the threat current strategy is high, but before the psychological processes takes place

Giraffe in quicksand

Major corporation Senior management team Interviews before scenario planning

exercise Interviewees active participants in

exercise

Giraffe in quicksand

Organization’s current strategic direction was failing;

Risks to be serious if the organization failed to change its current strategy

Risks to be serious if the organization did change its strategy

Giraffe in quicksand

Procrastination, buck passing, and bolstering

‘Rub salt into a wound’ http://br.youtube.com/watch?v=jcdRT0Xv2RU

Case of success

Operating in the ‘drinks’ industry Parent company’s principal role is the marketing

and branding of the group’s drinks products Mission:

Provide a quality service in the blending, bottling and storage of scotch whisky and other spirits;

Co-operate with our customers in assisting them to develop their brands;

Provide a realistic return on the company’s assets’ Long periods of small, incremental change,

interrupted by much shorter periods of discontinuous, radical change.

Case of success

Pre-intervention interviews Workshops with an informed outsider

(remarkable person) Stimulated and Encouraged Re-consider the purpose and

objectives of the organization Shifting responsibility (buck passing)

Conclusions

Rethinking is an appropriate, vigilant, response to the ‘jolt’ of a scenario thinking intervention

Indicated lower procrastination, buck-passing, or bolstering behavior levels

Stresses engendered by a decision dilemma → decision avoidance → poor information search and contingency planning → disabled Scenario intervention

Conclusions

However… Team leadership Team dynamics Organizational Competence Organizational Power Organizational Architecture

Questions?!