Scenario Planning in Pharma - Squarespace · S P E C I A L I Z I N G I N C I F O R P H A R M A A N...

SwissIntel 2016 | ProACT |

Baljit Singh is the Managing Director, Life Sciences, INOVIS and based in Lucerne at INOVIS Global Headquarters in Switzerland. His key responsibility includes running the day to day activities as well as shaping the near- and long-term strategic direction of INOVIS

► Baljit is of Indian origin, born in Denmark and educated in Denmark and England

► He has +10 years of experience in the global pharmaceutical, biotech and generics markets, optimizing brand, lifecycle and competitive strategies

► Baljit’s latest endeavor was with Novartis where he managed Global Competitive Intelligence for Respiratory and Primary Care before his final stint as Director of Integrated Insights

► Prior to Novartis, Baljit was Head of Competitive Intelligence for a Consultancy in Denmark

► Education

Ph.D. in Pharmaceutics from London School of Pharmacy

Masters in Pharmacy, Royal Danish School of Pharmacy in Copenhagen

CONTACT [email protected]

WEB www.inovis.global

Baljit Singh, PhDManaging Director INOVIS, Life Sciences Division

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Mika Partanen is the Deputy Director of Global Competitive Insights for the thrombosis franchise at Bayer AG in Berlin, Germany. His key responsibility includes managing all activities to collect, analyze and deliver competitive insights related to the thrombosis space at Bayer AG

► Mika is a native-Finn, and educated both in Finland and the US

► He has 15+ years of experience in conducting CI at Bayer, Forest Labs, Organon/Schering-Plough and MSD. Before CI, Mika worked in strategic planning and on strategic projects for senior management in marketing and sales.

► Education

MBA, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA

LLM, University of Helsinki, Finland

CONTACT [email protected]

WEB www.bayer.com

Mika Partanen,Deputy Director, Global Competitive Insights, Bayer HealthCare AG

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SwissIntel 2016 | ProACT | 4

► Global leaders in primary CI since 1992

► First-in-class cloud-based scenario planning software tool for risk mitigation & opportunity maximization

► Loyal global Fortune 100 client base

► Strict industry focus/specialty in:

► Pharma / biotech / med. devices /digital health

► IT/telco (software, hardware, services)

► CI analysts on the ground in 54 countries

► MBA & PhD-level CI investigators

► Proprietary global primary source network

INOVIS – Global Leaders in Primary CI


Scenario Planning in Pharma

Introduction to


Scenario Planning Case Study: $500 Million Question

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Scope and Direction

►Case Study:

Licensing a Late-Stage Pipeline Drug in Diabetes

►Objectives:

Gain potential peak sales of $500 million in the US by 2016

Go/No-go-decision


Holistic Look Was Taken at the Broader Market Landscape and Its Key Drivers

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Providers Payers Patients Industry

Key Uncertainties:

Leading Indicators

Identification/prioritization of key uncertainties and leading indicators

Government

e.g., changes in treatment patterns and product reimbursement, consumerism, FDA policies, corporate M&A by 2018


Selected Analytical Tools Helped to Bring the Future Closer to Today – and “Prioritize“ It

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Source: Bishop, Hines and Collins, The Current State of Scenario Development: an Overview of Techniques

Scenario Technique Used:

Tools

Judgment Impact Analysis

Baseline Trend Extrapolation

Event Sequences Probability Tree (selectively)

Cross-Impact Analysis Impact Analysis

Systems Modelling Trend Impact Analysis

Scenario Development Approach: Inductive

Developmentof Scenarios


My Favorite …

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Impact Analysis (Adapted Delphi Method*)

Impact matrix

Impact

Pro

bab

ility

Low

Med.

High

Med. High

1) Within respective key uncertainty, i.e., driver

2) Between uncertainties


Alternative Scenarios Were Developed to Allow a Better Informed Decision-Making

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Marketing Muscle Knocks

Out

BureaucracyRules

Money Does NotGrow on

Trees

Innovation wins

Developmentof Scenarios

Baseline Scenario(“No Change at the Diabetes Front”)

i.e., current trends & forecasting models prevail

ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS


“Value“: Scenarios Effectively Questioned Prevailing Views on the Business Opportunity

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Sensitivity / Risk Assessment

►Assess planned licensing strategy’s resilience / vulnerability in different scenarios.

►Compare scenario conditions with the desired future conditions.

►Assess how successful and how vulnerable a “go” decision would be in each scenario.

ImplicationsStrategic Imperatives


Value: Great Influence on Senior Management Decision-Making

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Management Action

Decision-Making Select Collaboratively the Most Plausible Scenario

Adjust current or develop a new forecasting model to identify any opportunities to satisfy senior management revenue goals in licensing

Go/No-Go Decision(s)

Case Study: The management made a no-go decision as only the most optimistic, but unlikely, scenario promised the objective (= sales $500 million by 2008) to be met.


Scenario Planning in Pharma

Introduction to


ProACT | Systematic Scenario Planning |

► What is ProACT: First-in-class cloud-based scenario planning software tool for risk mitigation & opportunity maximization

► ProACT is applicable broadly within Life Sciences and enables systematic scenario planning by;

Intrinsically leveraging and applying fundamental scenario planning tools in the process.

Preparing your organization for external threats and internal issues.

Identifying opportunities and aligning your organization for the challenges ahead.

Prioritizing activities, focus areas and initiatives, to enable prioritized action planning.

► ProACT is based entirely on insights, intelligence, collaboration and interlinking thoughts and ideas. Working at Micro or Macro levels, ProACT can help you simplify strategic decision making, through a structured scenario planning process, to effectively optimize your strategies and profit margins

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ProACT | Mitigate | Optimize | Strategize |

► ProACT is a strategic tool that enables comprehensive, prioritized, integrated, aligned, systematic and objective scenario development and action planning

► Mitigate Risk, Leverage Opportunities & Optimize Strategy

► Aligns base assumptions and alternate scenarios across functional teams for Integrated action plans

► Aligns different views of risk and its potential consequences

► Optimizes Corporate, Portfolio and Product Life Cycle tactics and strategies at Global, Regional and Country level

Be ProACTive –Mitigate Risk and Maximize Opportunities

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ProACT | Info |

► For more info please contact:

► Baljit Singh, Managing Director, Life Sciences

Email: [email protected]

► Marc Limacher, Founder and CEO

Email: [email protected]

► Telephone:

+41 41.455.2522 (Europe)

+1.650.298.8555 (U.S.)

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mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]


www.inovis.global | [email protected]

+41.41.455.2522 (Europe) | +1.650.298.8555 (U.S.) | +1.305.913.1350 (Latin America)

P R E S E N T E D B Y

Baljit Singh, PhDManaging Director INOVIS, Life Sciences Division

Scenario Planning in Pharma - Squarespace · S P E C I A L I Z I N G I N C I F O R P H A R M A A N...

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