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Scenario: Modeling Research

John Walsh, IARC Chief Scientist

ACE User Scenario: Downscaled climate model output

Acknowledgments:

Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning (Tom Kurkowski, Matt Leonawicz, Michael Lindgren) VCSI/ACE team (Gina Wade)

International Arctic Research Center

Climate Models circa early 1990s

Global climate models, 2013

j-walsh2

Projected temperature changes for Alaska by 2051-2060 relative to 1961-1990, based on five climate models that most accurately reproduce Alaskan temperatures and their seasonal cycle for the past several decades.

1) Compare temperature projections for 2090-2099 from two different climate models

-- Are there major differences between the climate models?

2) Compare temperature projections for 2090-2099 from the same climate model under two different emission scenarios: A1B (moderate emissions) and A2 (high emissions)

-- Does the emission scenario make a difference?