Scenario-Based Planning for the Regional Impacts of Statewide Multimodal Transportation Policies
-
Upload
dane-keller -
Category
Documents
-
view
24 -
download
0
description
Transcript of Scenario-Based Planning for the Regional Impacts of Statewide Multimodal Transportation Policies
![Page 1: Scenario-Based Planning for the Regional Impacts of Statewide Multimodal Transportation Policies](https://reader037.fdocuments.in/reader037/viewer/2022110100/56812a73550346895d8df78a/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
1
Scenario-Based Planning for the Regional Impacts of Statewide
Multimodal Transportation PoliciesProgress Report to the VTrans2035 Advisory
CommitteeBy James H. Lambert
with Megan N. Kersh, Asad A. Saqib, Matthew J. Schroeder, Edward E. Williams IV, James H. Lambert
May 15, 2008
QuickTime™ and a decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
![Page 2: Scenario-Based Planning for the Regional Impacts of Statewide Multimodal Transportation Policies](https://reader037.fdocuments.in/reader037/viewer/2022110100/56812a73550346895d8df78a/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
2
Acknowledgments
Commonwealth’s Multimodal Transportation Office
VTrans2035 Virginia Department of Transportation Virginia Transportation Research Council
![Page 3: Scenario-Based Planning for the Regional Impacts of Statewide Multimodal Transportation Policies](https://reader037.fdocuments.in/reader037/viewer/2022110100/56812a73550346895d8df78a/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
3
Summary
Reviewed practices of scenario-based planning Assessed the needs of regional transportation
planners Developed a scenario-based analysis of regional
multimodal transportation impacts Designed an Excel workbook to apply scenario-
based planning approach to regions of the Commonwealth
![Page 4: Scenario-Based Planning for the Regional Impacts of Statewide Multimodal Transportation Policies](https://reader037.fdocuments.in/reader037/viewer/2022110100/56812a73550346895d8df78a/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
4
Presentation Outline
Introduction and motivation Problem definition Project background Technical approach overview Demonstrate workbook Conclusions and future work
![Page 5: Scenario-Based Planning for the Regional Impacts of Statewide Multimodal Transportation Policies](https://reader037.fdocuments.in/reader037/viewer/2022110100/56812a73550346895d8df78a/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
5
Motivation Virginia’s diverse transportation system
• More than 60,000 miles of roadway• 67 public-use airports• 4 state-operated port terminals• Over 40 fixed route transit systems• Extensive freight and passenger rail
Scenario-based planning is essential for planning on a thirty-year horizon
![Page 6: Scenario-Based Planning for the Regional Impacts of Statewide Multimodal Transportation Policies](https://reader037.fdocuments.in/reader037/viewer/2022110100/56812a73550346895d8df78a/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
6
VTrans2035 “…policy framework for an
integrated multimodal transportation system that improves mobility and adds to the prosperity and the quality of life for Virginia”
Modal agencies• DOAV• VDRPT• VDOT• DMV• VPA
Pierce R. HomerSecretary of Transportation
VTrans2035 Advisory Committee
Heads of Modal Agencies
Analysis support for scenario-based planning
![Page 7: Scenario-Based Planning for the Regional Impacts of Statewide Multimodal Transportation Policies](https://reader037.fdocuments.in/reader037/viewer/2022110100/56812a73550346895d8df78a/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
7
Problem Definition
Characterize the regional impacts of statewide multimodal transportation policies
Develop a survey for seeking consensus and differences of transportation planners
Begin to explore region by region across the Commonwealth
![Page 8: Scenario-Based Planning for the Regional Impacts of Statewide Multimodal Transportation Policies](https://reader037.fdocuments.in/reader037/viewer/2022110100/56812a73550346895d8df78a/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
8
Regional Planning Organizations
![Page 9: Scenario-Based Planning for the Regional Impacts of Statewide Multimodal Transportation Policies](https://reader037.fdocuments.in/reader037/viewer/2022110100/56812a73550346895d8df78a/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
9
Timeline September 2007: Contact with Virginia’s Multimodal Office November 2007: Virginia Transportation Conference, Roanoke,
Virginia December 2007: Roanoke Valley Alleghany MPO student paper
competition February 2008: Meeting with Dr. Tischer and Deputy Secretary
Ralph Davis, Michael Garrett, Kimberly Pryor-Spence, Katherine Graham, VDOT, on economic input output analysis
February 2008: Meeting with Roanoke Valley MPO March 2008: Meeting with Roanoke Valley MPO May 2008: Briefing with Dr. Tischer and Katherine Graham May 2008: Briefing with VTrans2035 Advisory Committee
![Page 10: Scenario-Based Planning for the Regional Impacts of Statewide Multimodal Transportation Policies](https://reader037.fdocuments.in/reader037/viewer/2022110100/56812a73550346895d8df78a/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
10
Project Website
www.virginia.edu/crmes/multimodal2
![Page 11: Scenario-Based Planning for the Regional Impacts of Statewide Multimodal Transportation Policies](https://reader037.fdocuments.in/reader037/viewer/2022110100/56812a73550346895d8df78a/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
11
Scenario-Based Planning
Use of scenarios to guide forecasts, projects, and policies
Advocated by the Federal Highway Administration
Several different approaches for methodology
Source: FHWA, various sources
![Page 12: Scenario-Based Planning for the Regional Impacts of Statewide Multimodal Transportation Policies](https://reader037.fdocuments.in/reader037/viewer/2022110100/56812a73550346895d8df78a/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
12
Types of Scenarios Spatial Economic Demographic
• Number of households, in/out-migration Other
• Environmental• Availability of energy resources• National emergencies• Natural disasters
![Page 13: Scenario-Based Planning for the Regional Impacts of Statewide Multimodal Transportation Policies](https://reader037.fdocuments.in/reader037/viewer/2022110100/56812a73550346895d8df78a/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
13
Spatial Scenarios Urban core repopulates
• People go to urbanized areas to live and work, net population unchanged• Public transportation increases, clean transportation
Sprawl accelerates• Private automobile become main mode, vehicle miles traveled increases• Land consumption, energy usage increase, resource depletion
Information technology amenities grow• More workers telecommute so sprawl continues• Flexible work hours result in justifying transit service to certain areas
Region undivided• Shift job and household growth from west to east
Transit oriented development• More people live and work closer to transit
Sources: www.dvrpc.org/LongRangePlan/2030/WhatIfFinal.pdf
www.mwcog.org/uploads/committee-documents/v1taWF820050929141940.ppt
![Page 14: Scenario-Based Planning for the Regional Impacts of Statewide Multimodal Transportation Policies](https://reader037.fdocuments.in/reader037/viewer/2022110100/56812a73550346895d8df78a/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
14
Economic Scenarios Regional economy strengthens
• Many workers move to region, sprawl continues
Global trade intensifies• Population decreases, increased use of automobiles
Energy cost rises• People relocate to more transit-oriented locations• Decreased use of automobile, air quality increases
Infrastructure investment expands• May draw people to area in the long run
Sources: www.dvrpc.org/LongRangePlan/2030/WhatIfFinal.pdf
www.mwcog.org/uploads/committee-documents/v1taWF820050929141940.ppt
![Page 15: Scenario-Based Planning for the Regional Impacts of Statewide Multimodal Transportation Policies](https://reader037.fdocuments.in/reader037/viewer/2022110100/56812a73550346895d8df78a/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
15
Demographic Scenarios
In-migration increases• Total population increases, decreased use of
auto
Out-migration increases• Population decreases, increased use of auto
More households• Increased household growth to balance
forecast job growthSources: www.dvrpc.org/LongRangePlan/2030/WhatIfFinal.pdf
www.mwcog.org/uploads/committee-documents/v1taWF820050929141940.ppt
![Page 16: Scenario-Based Planning for the Regional Impacts of Statewide Multimodal Transportation Policies](https://reader037.fdocuments.in/reader037/viewer/2022110100/56812a73550346895d8df78a/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
16
Other Scenarios “Green” region emphasized
• Use of public transit, bike, etc.
Crisis of national significance occurs/ homeland security tightened• Sprawl accelerates, shun public transportation• Airlines suffer, intermodal connection not emphasized
Carbon constrained future Energy constrained future
• Global price shocks and shortagesSources: www.dvrpc.org/LongRangePlan/2030/WhatIfFinal.pdf
www.mwcog.org/uploads/committee-documents/v1taWF820050929141940.ppt
![Page 17: Scenario-Based Planning for the Regional Impacts of Statewide Multimodal Transportation Policies](https://reader037.fdocuments.in/reader037/viewer/2022110100/56812a73550346895d8df78a/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
17
Scenario-Based Planning (cont.)
Identify key regional issues Identify key factors for issues Combine key factors and issues to make
future scenarios Explore scenarios with a variety of
stakeholders
![Page 18: Scenario-Based Planning for the Regional Impacts of Statewide Multimodal Transportation Policies](https://reader037.fdocuments.in/reader037/viewer/2022110100/56812a73550346895d8df78a/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
18
Stages of the Analysis
Select Regions Select Scenarios
Score PoliciesBased
on EvaluationCriteria
Weigh EvaluationCriteria withScenarios
Assess PolicyPerformance
Sensitivity to Region
Discuss andCombine
Issues andFactors
ID Key Factors ID Key Issues
![Page 19: Scenario-Based Planning for the Regional Impacts of Statewide Multimodal Transportation Policies](https://reader037.fdocuments.in/reader037/viewer/2022110100/56812a73550346895d8df78a/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
19
Transportation Policies
Twenty-one policies of VTrans2035 and Office of Multimodal Transportation Planning
Sample of policies• P.4 – Fund rail• P.6 – Strengthen planning and modeling• P.24 – Going green (specific to region)• P.23 – Improve bicycle and pedestrian paths (specific
to region)
![Page 20: Scenario-Based Planning for the Regional Impacts of Statewide Multimodal Transportation Policies](https://reader037.fdocuments.in/reader037/viewer/2022110100/56812a73550346895d8df78a/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
20
Scenarios
Used nineteen scenarios based on studies throughout the U.S.
Focused on five scenarios for the region in our case study• S.2 – Sprawl accelerates• S.17 – Retirement• S.18 – Natural disaster• S.3 – IT amenities grow• S.19 – Decrease in air quality
![Page 21: Scenario-Based Planning for the Regional Impacts of Statewide Multimodal Transportation Policies](https://reader037.fdocuments.in/reader037/viewer/2022110100/56812a73550346895d8df78a/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
21
Transportation Criteria (“Goals”)
Six high level criteria with 34 sub-criteria High level goals:
• C.1 – Safety and Security• C.2 – Preservation and Management• C.3 – Efficient Movement of Goods and People• C.4 – Economic Vitality• C.5 – Quality of Life• C.6 – Program Delivery
![Page 22: Scenario-Based Planning for the Regional Impacts of Statewide Multimodal Transportation Policies](https://reader037.fdocuments.in/reader037/viewer/2022110100/56812a73550346895d8df78a/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
22
Workbook - Introduction
![Page 23: Scenario-Based Planning for the Regional Impacts of Statewide Multimodal Transportation Policies](https://reader037.fdocuments.in/reader037/viewer/2022110100/56812a73550346895d8df78a/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
23
Workbook – Policy Definitions
![Page 24: Scenario-Based Planning for the Regional Impacts of Statewide Multimodal Transportation Policies](https://reader037.fdocuments.in/reader037/viewer/2022110100/56812a73550346895d8df78a/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
24
Workbook – Policy Ratings
![Page 25: Scenario-Based Planning for the Regional Impacts of Statewide Multimodal Transportation Policies](https://reader037.fdocuments.in/reader037/viewer/2022110100/56812a73550346895d8df78a/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
25
Workbook – Scenario Definitions
![Page 26: Scenario-Based Planning for the Regional Impacts of Statewide Multimodal Transportation Policies](https://reader037.fdocuments.in/reader037/viewer/2022110100/56812a73550346895d8df78a/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
26
Workbook – Criteria Weighting
![Page 27: Scenario-Based Planning for the Regional Impacts of Statewide Multimodal Transportation Policies](https://reader037.fdocuments.in/reader037/viewer/2022110100/56812a73550346895d8df78a/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
27
Workbook – Policy Comparison
![Page 28: Scenario-Based Planning for the Regional Impacts of Statewide Multimodal Transportation Policies](https://reader037.fdocuments.in/reader037/viewer/2022110100/56812a73550346895d8df78a/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
28
Workbook – Policy Comparison (cont.)
![Page 29: Scenario-Based Planning for the Regional Impacts of Statewide Multimodal Transportation Policies](https://reader037.fdocuments.in/reader037/viewer/2022110100/56812a73550346895d8df78a/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
29
Workbook – Policy Comparison (cont.)
![Page 30: Scenario-Based Planning for the Regional Impacts of Statewide Multimodal Transportation Policies](https://reader037.fdocuments.in/reader037/viewer/2022110100/56812a73550346895d8df78a/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
30
Summary of Progress
Explored scenario-based planning approach to analyze impacts of regional multimodal transportation policies
Integrated policies, scenarios, and evaluation criteria in an Excel workbook
Characterized regional impacts for multimodal transportation policies
![Page 31: Scenario-Based Planning for the Regional Impacts of Statewide Multimodal Transportation Policies](https://reader037.fdocuments.in/reader037/viewer/2022110100/56812a73550346895d8df78a/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
31
Future Work
Survey MPOs to to find what scenarios are used in long-range planning
Customize workbook for survey of regional organizations
Implement a telephone survey to gather input to the workbook
Collate the results in support of VTrans2035
![Page 32: Scenario-Based Planning for the Regional Impacts of Statewide Multimodal Transportation Policies](https://reader037.fdocuments.in/reader037/viewer/2022110100/56812a73550346895d8df78a/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
32
RVAMPO Student Paper Award
![Page 33: Scenario-Based Planning for the Regional Impacts of Statewide Multimodal Transportation Policies](https://reader037.fdocuments.in/reader037/viewer/2022110100/56812a73550346895d8df78a/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
33
RVAMPO Award (cont.)
In Roanoke with Competition Sponsor Receiving Best Student Paper Award
Team with UVa Engineering Dean James Aylor and Department of Systems and Information Engineering Chair, Prof. Don Brown