Scanner Data – next steps ahead Berthold Feldmann – Eurostat Price statistics; purchasing power...
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Transcript of Scanner Data – next steps ahead Berthold Feldmann – Eurostat Price statistics; purchasing power...
Scanner Data – next steps
ahead
Berthold Feldmann – Eurostat
Price statistics; purchasing power parities; housing statistics
Scanner Data Workshop – Stockholm June 20122
Structure of the talk
Scanner data – a new paradigm
Main lessons of the last two days
Challenges
Time table and conclusion
Chapter 1
A new universe
Scanner Data Workshop – Stockholm June 20124
Scanner data as source for consumer price indices
Expected advantages
Better quality of indices Low response burden of enterprises Productivity gains of National Statistical Institutes Data can be used for other purposes
Purchasing Power Parities Average price levels Advanced economic analysis (e.g. substitution
rates) Regional breakdown of CPI/HICP
Scanner Data Workshop – Stockholm June 20125
Scanner data as source for consumer price indices
Expected disadvantages
Potential biases in CPI / HICP
High investment costs (IT)
Some rules of European Implementing Regulations may no longer be applicable Treatment of rebates
Quality adjustment
Direct collection of “price observations” Together we have to check if rules laid
down in legal acts need an adaptation
Chapter 2
Lessons learnt in the Workshop
Scanner Data Workshop – Stockholm June 20127
Some general conclusions
We are still at an early stage in the use of scanner data as a data source
Several problems still need to be solved
Scanner data appears quite promising for the collection of Multipurpose Consumer Price Statistics
Scanner data cannot be used for all COICOP groups
Scanner data offers high quality information of actual transactions
Scanner Data Workshop – Stockholm June 20128
Conclusions on discounts
Discounts are an important stimulus for increased sales important for consumers
Scanner data offers new opportunities for a more precise treatment of discounts compared to traditional price collection
For HICP – the inclusion of all non-discriminatory price reductions should be the rule
Precise recommendations should be drafted a.s.a.p.
We might need to evaluate the existing regulatory framework on price reductions
Scanner Data Workshop – Stockholm June 20129
Practical experience The exchange of views and experiences between
NSIs could save a lot of time
Avoid reinventing the wheel
Full support from the top management of retailers is mandatory
Good collaboration with data providers is a key point
More volatility and some short and medium term differences when changing the price concept (transaction price versus shelf price)
Major challenge: high attrition rate (up to 30%)
Promising results with the use of “internal” classifications as links between EAN and COICOP
Scanner Data Workshop – Stockholm June 201210
Computation methods
From GEKS to RYGEKS
From RYGEKS to imputed Tornquist RYGEKS
Three different methods are tested for the imputation of prices for new and disappearing items
Conclusion
at the lowest level of computation we might need to go beyond Laspeyres ... ...
Mainly used for benchmarking
Chapter 3
Challenges
Scanner Data Workshop – Stockholm June 201212
Link EAN - COICOP
EAN differ from country to country
A high proportion of EAN have a life span of less than a year
This results in a high turnover rate of product types
Automating the link of EAN to COICOP level 5 or 6 is not a trivial task
In the long run a harmonisation of EAN across Europe would be desirable
Scanner Data Workshop – Stockholm June 201213
Use a sample or all data?
Current practise differs between countries
A harmonised approach should be achieved
Advantages and disadvantages of the two approaches should be discussed carefully
Using a sample is closer to the traditional price observations
Using all data might offer new opportunities
Scanner Data Workshop – Stockholm June 201214
Automation of editing EAN data
Problem of many products disappearing and others emerging within a year
Practice of some advanced National Statistical Offices can give guidelines
Scanner Data Workshop – Stockholm June 201215
Weighted or not weighted
average?
(product level) Should quantity information be used at basic calculations?
Quantities may show huge fluctuations
A Europe-wide recommendation should be achieved
Scanner Data Workshop – Stockholm June 201216
Scanner data as a source for
weights
(level of product groups) Quantities from scanner data could be used as weights at the lowest level (COICOP 5 or 6)
In any case, only annual averages should be used as weights
According to Implementing Regulation no changing weights from month to month
Volatility of the data?
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Further information collected
Scanner data contains more than prices and quantities
Product description is important for EAN – COICOP link
Information on discounts may be useful for further data analysis for economic purposes
Scanner Data Workshop – Stockholm June 201218
Scanner data versus price collectors Different results are reported from the two
alternative sources for consumer price indices
A thorough analysis is required to explain these differences
Algorithms to be found for possible bias in scanner data
Scanner Data Workshop – Stockholm June 201219
Legal obligations
National law may set different obligations in different countries
Are stores obliged to supply scanner data?
Can European legislation help?
COUNCIL REGULATION (EC) No 2166/1999The statistical units … called upon by the Member States to cooperate in the collection or provision of basic information are obliged to give honest and complete information at the time it is requested and allow the organisations and institutions responsible for compiling official statistics, on request, to obtain information at the level of detail necessary ………
Scanner Data Workshop – Stockholm June 201220
IT environment
High investment costs to start the regular usage of scanner data
Economies of scale possible if similar solutions are used in different countries
Chapter 4
Provisional time table
Scanner Data Workshop – Stockholm June 201222
A proposal for a timetable Continue intensive discussion among experts
Enhance transparency on current practice in all European countries
Eurostat will create an overview of current practice in summer 2012
Discussion at the Working Group meeting in October 2012
Meeting of the Task Force “Multipurpose price statistics” shall draft first recommendations in January 2013
Incorporation of basic rules on the use of scanner data in the new HICP Regulation
Scanner Data Workshop – Stockholm June 201223
Conclusion
The use of scanner data offers several advantages for future price statistics (not only consumer price indices)
Some issue connected with the use of scanner data are not easy to solve and require a harmonised approach
The European legal framework might need to be assessed if some rules need an adaptation for the use of scanner data
Thank you for
your attention!
Any Questions ?