Scaling up animal source food production to sustainably ...
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Scaling up animal source food production to
sustainably meet growing demand in developing countries
“Aligning the Food Systems for Improved Nutrition in Animal Source Foods”, UC-Davis May 13-14, 2019
Steve Staal
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Outline
• Growing demand = more production in LMICs• The role of smallholders• Informal markets for livestock products• Facilitating increased smallholder production
and market access - examples• Risks of a food-systems approach?
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Global commodity values: on average animal source foods, five of the top ten
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50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
Rice,paddy
Meat, pig Milk,whole
fresh cow
Meat,cattle
Maize Meat,chicken
Wheat Potatoes Eggs, hen,in shell
Sugarcane
Current million USD(average annual values 2007-2016; animal
source foods: USD 830 billion)
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Projections of Livestock Production to
2050
Pro
duction
(m
illio
ns o
f to
nnes)
LMICs
Year
HICs
•Sector growth is huge in the LMICs
•How, where and who will produce such amounts of livestock produce?
•Answer= mostly in LMICs themselves. Only 10% of ASFs are traded
Sources: ILRI computations, based on FAO data
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Various sources: BMGF, FAO, ILRI
Smallholders still dominate livestock production in many countries
Region(definition of ‘smallholder’)
% production by smallholder livestock farms
Beef Chickenmeat
Sheep/goat meat
Milk Pork Eggs
East Africa 60-90(≤ 6 milking
animals)
Bangladesh(< 3ha land)
65 77 78 65 96 77
India(< 2ha land)
75 92 92 69 most 71
Vietnam (small scale)
90 65 80 70
Philippines(backyard)
85 41 99 44 64 25
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Smallholder competitiveness
• The “household model” of production (multiple objectives, multiple benefits).• Multiple benefits, maximum use of low cost resources and farm synergies,
not completely dependent on profits, up to 40% non-market “return”
• The large scale “enterprise model” of production (1 objective and benefit=profit)• Capital intensive , mechanization and economies of scale advantages only
work when labor costs are high
• Multiple studies across continents demonstrates reasons for underlying competitiveness• limited economies of scale in production
• Often comparable unit costs of production, small vs large
• Fresh product markets also buffer import competition
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Opportunity costs of labor determine scale of production
Source: Project on Transregional Analysis of Crop-Livestock intensification, ILRI 2002
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$ p
er
mo
nth
Ca
ttle
nu
mb
ers
Herd size (cattle per farm) Rural wage ($/month)
Cattle herd size and rural wages
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Smallholder investment rationale
• Does not require sentimental belief in “small is
beautiful”
• Is simply based on the evidence and objective
– increasing ASF supply to consumers
– they produce the bulk of supply so have to include
– does not detract from investing in larger commercial systems
• But also
– Strong vehicle for empowering women and vulnerable
communities
– More ASF production in rural communities = more ASF
consumption
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Growing local markets but mostly informal
• Large share of developing country livestock product markets are traditional/informal (80−90%).
• Domestic markets dominate: Opportunities for exports are limited by SPS and quality standards, but also price.
• ‘Supermarketization’threatens smallholder market participation, although smaller impact on fresh foods.
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Million MTs (early 2000’s
India Informal USA+ Canada UK+Ger+Fra+Neth Global imports
India
informal
USA+
Canada
UK,
Ger,Fra &
NethGlobal
dairy
product
trade
Dairy sector comparisons
Informal/traditional markets are not small
Liquid milk equivalents
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Demand for safety & quality drives formal and informal markets
Level of
product
safety/
quality
Consumer purchasing power/income
Market will not
enforce public standards
Market may impose higher private standards
Market driven standards are like death and taxes: impossible to avoid
Raising awareness and social marketing can raise demand for safety
Official public standards
Mostly formal markets
Mostly informal markets
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Milk Trader
Training
Service
Providers
(BDS)
Regulatory
Authority
Accreditation & monitoring
Reporting
Training
guides
Training and Certification - upgrading informal
milk markets
Hygienic
cans
Analysis found over $30M annual benefits to farmers and consumers
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Dairy hubs – business oriented collective action
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Livestock Business to Business (B2B) and Innovation Platforms
Various forms of multi-stakeholder platforms, eg innovation platforms- Aiming to bring together actors for new synergies, joint learning, business
linkages- Aim to overcome market failure- However, benefit/cost and sustainability uncertain
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Opportunities throughFOOD-FEED CROPS
• Genetic tools can be used to develop crop varieties with improved residue quality• 3% increase in digestibility = 7%
increase in milk productivity (sorghum)
• Rice straw next target
• Huge potential impact across large parts of Asia
• Potential environmental ‘win-win’
• Fewer GHG emissions compared to burning or decomposition
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Starting
with 9
youths
32 youths
in the
phase II
60
youths to
be
supporte
d in total
Opportunity for Inclusion
• Youth as directproducers:
• Women as directproducers
• Women groupsallocating land to fodder production
• Aggregating and marketing
• Further Opportunities
• Equipment services byyouth
• Commercialaggregators
Forages, youth, women
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Financing innovation for beef fattening (Swaziland)
17
Finishers/TradersProducer
Meat wholesalersRetail butcheries
Other input and support services
Financial partner
Traders
Group
Commercial market
External
Fod
der
, was
te, g
rass
Grow the feed – forage and grass based
80% cheaper, grown all year round
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Adopting a “food systems” approach to livestock R&D – risks?
• In rural communities across LMICs, livestock represent much more than ASFs and food
• Other products and benefits like hides/fiber, draft power, and important soil amendments
• Livestock products inherently resource-dense so more market oriented = income
• Livestock assets are unique: inflation proof, provide both insurance and financing mechanisms simultaneously
• Livestock assets are often the main assets for rural women• Livestock assets invested in education and remunerable
enterprises, facilitating generation exit from agriculture
• At least “agri-food systems” – maybe people and communities first, food second
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https://whylivestockmatter.org/
BMGF supported Global Livestock Advocacy for Development
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This presentation is licensed for use under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence.
better lives through livestock
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ILRI thanks all donors and organizations who globally supported its work through their contributions to the CGIAR system