Scaling Dynamics in Energy Technologies · 2020. 6. 24. · 10 ^ 11 to 12 ? 10 ^ 10 to 11 ? 10 ^ 5...
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Scaling Dynamics in Energy Technologies Historical Evidence & Implica:ons Charlie Wilson IIASA (Interna:onal Ins:tute for Applied Systems Analysis) Presenta:on to Harvard ETIP April 2009 For further details: [email protected]
Transcript of Scaling Dynamics in Energy Technologies · 2020. 6. 24. · 10 ^ 11 to 12 ? 10 ^ 10 to 11 ? 10 ^ 5...
ScalingDynamicsinEnergyTechnologies
HistoricalEvidence&Implica:ons
CharlieWilsonIIASA(Interna:onalIns:tuteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis)
Presenta:ontoHarvardETIPApril2009
Forfurtherdetails:[email protected]
Industryscaling:e.g.,nuclearpower
GrossTotals(2100)~25,000,000MW~25,000units~1MW/unit
GrossTotals(2000)~400,000MW~525units
~0.8MW/unit
Unitscalinge.g.,windpower
150m
power≈ bladelength^2windspeed^3
ResearchOutline
Technologicalgrowththatis:(i) bothrapidandextensive(ii) occursatmul:plelevels:
• thetechnologyunit(&/orplant)• theindustryasawhole
Whatarethehistoricaldynamicsofunitscalingandindustryscalingfordifferentenergytechnologies?
(2) ResearchQues.on
(1) Defini.onofScaling
(3) MethodologicalIssuesforaTechnologyMeta‐Analysis
‐‐>Uselogis.cparameters(deltaT&K)tocomparescalingdynamicsacrosstechnologiesandlevels.
Technologydiffusionchangesover:me
Technologydiffusionchangesoverspace
Technological‘capacity’hasspecificunits
Variablesofinterestareratesandextents
‘Levels’ofinterestareunitandindustry‐‐>UseMWascommon
capacitymetric
KeyLogis:cParameters
y=K1+e‐b.(t‐tmax)
K~extent
(satura:ondensity)
deltaT
90%K
~rate
10%K
Diffusiondynamicschangefromcoretorim“…accelera:onofdiffusionspeed[deltaT]anddecreaseinul:matediffusionlevels[K]asafunc:onofthe‘learning:me’[fromthebeginningofthediffusionprocess]”
(Grübler1990)
AvailableHistoricalDataGlobal Core Periphery1
(ex.Comm) Periphery2 Rim Notes
Power–Nuclear
Installedcapacitydata
Power–Coal
Installedcapacitydata
Power–Gas
Installedcapacitydata
Power–Wind
Denmarkascoremarket
Refineries () () () () () Processingcapacitydata
JetAircraT ()()
Boeingonly
(Iljushin,Tupolev…)
()Airbusonly
Boeing,McD,Airbusonly
MotorVehicles
() () () () Produc:onnotusedata
CFLs () Salesnotusedata
Also:PrimeMovers(USonly);Helicopters(UnitScaleonly)
InsufficientTimeSeriesData:SolarPV;MobilePhones.
IndustryCapacityScaling
CoalPowerGenera:on:Capacity
Addi:ons&GrossTotals
(N.B.Same:mescale,
differenty‐axis)
core periphery1(ex.Comm)
periphery2 rim
UnitCapacityScaling:NewJetAircrarModels(Boeing)
max.unitcapacity(fron:er)
av.unitcapacity
UNITSCALEECONOMIESRateofscalingofmax.unitcapacity
UNITSCALEFLEXIBILITYMax.–averagerateofunitscaling
nuclear>coal>gas
gas>>coal>nuclear
K=1493MW/unitK=1307MW/unitK=998MW/unit
K=316MW/unitK=1076MW/unitK=137MW/unit
KeyFindings:Historicalpayernsofscalinginenergytechnologies
– Industryscalingisini:atedandsustainedbymoreunitnumbersnotlargerunitsizes.
– Unitscaleeconomies,ifavailable,tendtobecapturedearly.
– Unitscaleeconomiesdonotdiffusespa:allyfromcoretorimmarkets.
– Therela:onshipbetweentherateandextentofindustryscalingisconsistentacrosstechnologies,andover:me.
…Implica,onsforTechnologyPolicy
…Implica,onsforLowCarbonScenarios
Ifunitscaleeconomiesareavailable,unitscalingisfasterthanindustryscaling
dT:Averageunitcapacity
dT:Maximumunitcapacity
dT:Totalindustrycapacityunitscale
economies scaleinvariant
(1)Ini.algrowthinunitnumbers–experimenta.on!
(2)Unitscaling(max.&average,i.e.,capturingscaleeconomies)
(3)Industryscalingsustainedbyunitnumbers
(1)
(2)
(3)
cf.nuclear,gas,aircra?,cars
industry–totalcapacityindustry–
totalno.ofunits
unit–av./max.size
WindPower–Denmark(CoreMarket)
(2)Unitscalingdelayeddespitetechnicalscaleeconomies
(1)
(2)
industry–totalcapacity
industry–totalno.ofunits
unit–av.size
(1)Unitnumbersdriveindustrygrowth(longexperimenta:onphase)
Dounitscalingdynamicsdetermineratesofindustryscaling?
x‐axis::melagfromunittoindustryscaling(measuredattmax)i.e.,largerforearlierunitscaling(e.g.,coal)
Ifunitscalingdrivesrateofindustryscaling,trendshouldbefromtoplertoboyomright…
y‐axis:rateofindustry
scaling
similarforfasterunitscaling
Industryscalingisgenerallyfasterfortechnologieswithlargerunitsizesandlessunitnumbers
K(noofunits)
10^11to12
?
10^10to11
?
10^5to6
10^5
10^4
10^3
?
av.unitsize(MW)
10^‐6
?
10^‐1
10^0
10^1to2
10^1to2
10^2to3
10^3
10^4
CFLs&wind: (i)subs,tu,onnotdiffusion;(ii)lesscapitalintensive; (iii)globalmarkets(morerecent)
Summary:DifferentRoutestoIndustryScaling
INDUSTRYSCALING
UNITNUMBERS
UNITCAPACITY
MARK
ETCHARA
CTER
ISTICS
SYSTEM
INTEGRA
TION
TECH
NOLO
GY
CHARA
CTER
ISTICS
scaleeconomies‐tech./ec.
process/retrofit‐able
flexibility/adaptability
modularity/notcapitalintensive
diffusionsubs:tu:on
produc:onscaling
complementarytechs&ins:tu:ons
globalmarkets
regionalmarkets
RefineriesCCS
NuclearWind
NatGasCHPCFLs/Wind
SolarPV
CFLsHybrids
ICECarsH2FCCars
earlyphasebuildout
spa.aldiffusionofscalefron.er
supportunitscaling
Spa:alDiffusionofUnitScaling
Noconsistentevidencefor‘leapfrogging’
ofmaximumunitcapacityfromcoretorim
deltaT:Core≈Periphery
deltaT:Core<Periphery(Asia)>Rim
deltaT:Core≈Periphery(ex.USSR)≈Rim
faster?
KeyFindings:Historicalpayernsofscalinginenergytechnologies
– Industryscalingisini:atedandsustainedbymoreunitnumbersnotlargerunitsizes.
– Unitscaleeconomies,ifavailable,tendtobecapturedearly.
– Unitscaleeconomiesdonotdiffusespa:allyfromcoretorimmarkets.
– Therela.onshipbetweentherateandextentofindustryscalingisconsistentacrosstechnologies,andover.me.
Cross‐technologycomparisonsofindustryscalingneedtocontrolforgrowthintheoverallsizeof‘thesystem’
Capacity(K)isnormalisedintoacommoncross‐technologymetricofscale:
NormalisedK= MWcarryingcapacity Primaryenergyatt(max)
Industrysize(MW)–global
Historicalrela:onshipbetweenEXTENTandRATEofindustryscalingisconsistentacrosstechnologies
Industrysize(MW)–coremarket
(NORM
ALISED)
GRE
ATER
EXT
ENT
SLOWERRATE
EXTENT–RATErela:onshipforindustrysize(MW)‘accelerates’fromcoretorim
UsingRATE‐EXTENTrela:onshiptotestscenarios:e.g.,nuclearpower–disconPnuousscalingatindustrylevel?
ScenarioFamiliesA2r:lowec.growth,lowtechchange,fossilfuelsB1:highec.growth,hightechchange,non‐fossilsB2:medec.growth,diversetechs,mixfuels
NormalisedKvs.deltaTrela:onshipsfornuclearscenariosactuallyappearconserva:ve!
N.B.Eachscenarionormalizedbyitsownprojectedtotalprimaryenergyatt(max)
Historicaldata
Scenarios
Why?2ordersofmagnitudehigherK…butmuchlongerdeltaTs
TakeHomeMessages
• Implica:onsforlowcarbontechnologies:– Driveearlyindustryscalingbysuppor:ngbuildoutofunitnumbers
(notlargerunitsizes)– Supportspa:aldiffusionofunitscalefron:er(whereappropriate).– Validatescalingassump:onsinscenariosusinghistoricalrate‐extent
rela:onship.
• Nextsteps:– Integratescalingdynamicswithqualita:veconceptualframework.
• Moreinfo:– [email protected]
– IIASAInterimReportavailablesoonwithalldata&analysis
