“Saving Lives and Livelihoods!" Brig. Gen. D.L. Johnson, USAF (Ret.) NOAA Assistant Administrator...

“Saving Lives and Livelihoods!" “Saving Lives and Livelihoods!"

Brig. Gen. D.L. Johnson, USAF (Ret.)

NOAA Assistant Administrator for Weather Services

November 15, 2005

Brig. Gen. D.L. Johnson, USAF (Ret.)

NOAA Assistant Administrator for Weather Services

November 15, 2005

NWS & IAEMPartnership in the Digital EraNWS & IAEMPartnership in the Digital Era


OverviewOverview

• The Nation’s Risks: Extreme Climate, Weather, and Water

– 2005 (YTD) in Review

• The Future: Action for America

– Strategic Initiatives

• The Nation’s Risks: Extreme Climate, Weather, and Water

– 2005 (YTD) in Review

• The Future: Action for America

– Strategic Initiatives

LandOceans Space Environment

AtmosphereClimate

NWS & IAEM Partnership in the Digital EraNWS & IAEM Partnership in the Digital Era


• Provide climate, water, weather forecasts and warnings to protect life and property and enhance the economy

• 76 billion observations

• 1.5 million forecasts

• 50,000 warnings

• Provide climate, water, weather forecasts and warnings to protect life and property and enhance the economy

• 76 billion observations

• 1.5 million forecasts

• 50,000 warnings

A Typical Year Brings: A Typical Year Brings:

– 6 Hurricanes6 Hurricanes

– 1,000 Tornadoes1,000 Tornadoes

– 5,000 Floods5,000 Floods

– 10,000 Violent Thunderstorms10,000 Violent Thunderstorms

– Drought ConditionsDrought Conditions

– 500 Deaths; 5,000 Injuries; 500 Deaths; 5,000 Injuries; $14 Billion in Losses$14 Billion in Losses

The Nation’s Risks:Extreme Climate, Weather, and WaterThe Nation’s Risks:Extreme Climate, Weather, and Water


Data Assimilation and Modeling

Data Assimilation and Modeling

DisseminationDissemination

Observations

Observations

Products & Services

Products & Services

ActionAction

Information

TechnologyInformation

Technology

Research to

OperationsResearch to

Operations

Research

Research



16

7

3

15

9

6

25

13

7

0

5

10

15

20

25

2003 2004 2005

Hurricanes

Named Storms

Hurricanes

Major Hurricanes

16

7

3

15

9

6

25

13

7

0

5

10

15

20

25

2003 2004 2005

Hurricanes

Named Storms

Hurricanes

Major Hurricanes

2005 in Review (YTD)



Atlantic Tropical Cyclones since 1886



Forecast for

Advisory 23 Issued

BULLETINHURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 23NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL10 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA…EVEN STRONGER…HEADEDFOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST….

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 175 MPHHAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 175 MPH…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES..

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS…LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEETAS HIGH AS 28 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES…CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

000WWUS74 KLIX 281550NPWLIX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED.......DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED....

HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITYOF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKSUNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTEDCOMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE. HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKSPOWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWNAND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE KILLED.LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE!

Hurricane KatrinaHurricane Katrina




Ph

oto

s b

y A

P

Hurricane KatrinaCostly Human and Societal EffectsHurricane KatrinaCostly Human and Societal Effects




1033

1376

1819

1113

0

500

1000

1500

2000

10 Yr Avg 2003 2004 2005

Tornado Reports

RecordRecord

YTDYTD




Indiana & Kentucky Tornadoes (Nov. 6)

Indiana & Kentucky Tornadoes (Nov. 6)

AP Photos




Cheshire County Floods Oct. 17Cheshire County Floods Oct. 17




The Future Action for AmericaThe Future Action for America


Community Preparedness & Safety



• Van Wert, Ohio is StormReady

– Preparedness in Place

– Threat Detected

– Warning Issued

– Warning Understood

– Action Taken

– LIVES SAVED

• Van Wert, Ohio is StormReady

– Preparedness in Place

– Threat Detected

– Warning Issued

– Warning Understood

– Action Taken

– LIVES SAVED Photo credit: Todd Campbell


Successful Community Preparedness


• Know and Anticipate Customer Needs

• Research to Operations

• Balanced Skill Mix

• Infuse Proven Science and Technology

• Grow National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD)

•Better Radar

• Know and Anticipate Customer Needs

• Research to Operations

• Balanced Skill Mix

• Infuse Proven Science and Technology

• Grow National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD)

•Better Radar

Air Quality Forecasts

Current RadarCurrent Radar Upgraded RadarUpgraded Radar

Gridded Gridded Forecast Forecast DatabaseDatabase

Gridded Gridded Forecast Forecast DatabaseDatabase

TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATION BY LATE

TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATION BY LATE

IFPSIFPS


Integrating and Improving Skills & Tools

Integrating and Improving Skills & Tools


Atmosphere

Snow Pack

FreshWater

TerrestrialWeather

Estuaries

Ocean

Air Quality

Soil Moisture

SpaceWeather

Total Environmental AwarenessTotal Environmental Awareness



More weather data

Higher resolution forecasts

Visual displays of probability

User-defined products create business opportunities

More weather data

Higher resolution forecasts

Visual displays of probability

User-defined products create business opportunities

Different Products for

Different Customers

Different Products for

Different Customers

The public, emergency managers and city planners use WWW. graphic products for detailed forecasts

The public, emergency managers and city planners use WWW. graphic products for detailed forecasts

Commercial weather companies & emergency managers use grids to generate tailored products

Commercial weather companies & emergency managers use grids to generate tailored products

TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATION BY LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET. COLDER WITH HIGHS 35 TO 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWESTEARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70%.

TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATION BY LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET. COLDER WITH HIGHS 35 TO 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWESTEARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70%.

Radio stations & public read text forecastsRadio stations & public read text forecasts


Digital Services (NDFD)Digital Services (NDFD)


Polygon EliminatesFalse Alarm Area

Polygon EliminatesFalse Alarm Area

Polygon Warnings & Demographic DataPolygon Warnings & Demographic Data



ResultsResults

Improved Hurricane Track, Improved Hurricane Track, Intensity and Precipitation Intensity and Precipitation

ForecastsForecasts

Improved Tornado and Improved Tornado and Flash Flood ForecastsFlash Flood Forecasts

Improved Aviation, Fire, Marine, Improved Aviation, Fire, Marine, and Space Weather Forecastsand Space Weather Forecasts

Improved Flood, River, and Improved Flood, River, and Ocean PredictionsOcean Predictions

Improved Seasonal Climate Improved Seasonal Climate Forecasts for Energy, Forecasts for Energy,

Agriculture, Etc.Agriculture, Etc.

AdvancesAdvances

ObservationsObservations

Data AssimilationData Assimilation

ModelsModels

Forecasting TechniquesForecasting Techniques

Information TechnologyInformation Technology

Dissemination MethodsDissemination Methods



• Develop an organization-wide concept of operations

• Consolidate data-level IT management

• Provide Aviation Products and Services

• Develop an organization-wide concept of operations

• Consolidate data-level IT management

• Provide Aviation Products and Services

Three Strategic InitiativesThree Strategic Initiatives



Strategic Initiatives

Develop an Organization-Wide Concept of Operations

Strategic Initiatives

Develop an Organization-Wide Concept of Operations



NOAA NWSNOAA NWS END USERSEND USERSPARTNERSPARTNERS

Integrative Communication ModelIntegrative Communication Model



Academic/ResearchAcademic/Research

BroadcastersBroadcasters

Private SectorPrivate Sector NOAA NWS

NOAA NWS

Protect Life and Property& Enhance U.S.A EconomyProtect Life and Property& Enhance U.S.A Economy

NWS & IAEM Partnership in the Digital EraNWS & IAEM Partnership in the Digital Era

EmergencyManagersEmergencyManagers

“Saving Lives and Livelihoods!" Brig. Gen. D.L. Johnson, USAF (Ret.) NOAA Assistant Administrator...

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