Save

Water is a limiting factor in the politics of adaptation and mitigation

of GGE effects in Mediterranean agriculture

1Programa Horticultura Ambiental. Subprograma Ecofisiologia. IRTA2 CREAF – UAB3 ETC-LUSI - UAB

Robert Savé1, Carmen Biel1,

Felicidad de Herralde1, Imma Funes1

Xavier Aranda1Diana Pascual2

Eduard Pla 2Roger Milego3Jaume Fonts3

2

208/04/23

Agriculture is the use of primary productivity in our benefit. In order to maintain this productivity, the metabolism of agricultural areas needs a lot of external sources of water, energy and nutrients and it produces heat, waste, garbage, sewage and pollution, which are some of the major problems for agricultural practices, above all, when agricultural is introduced in the landscape, as the visual representation of an intricate network of biodiversity.

Landscape representation as a biodiversity mesh (Zonneveld 1989). Similarly than in others ecosystems, a city is a complex ecosystem and consequently it must be studied according ecophysiological science and tools (Savé 2008)

3

308/04/23

Horticultural plants in a wide sense are all the species and/or varieties that provide food, fibers, biomass, drugs, and aesthetical pleasure, improving the environment and the quality of our lives.This definition indirectly shows a great imprecision because these plants are used around the world and consequently the concept of horticultural is ambiguous because it is based in very important cultural differences. The use of plants is based on the biological and physical concepts and horticultural principles of plant production, management of plants and ecosystems in landscape settings and sociological aspects of plant/people interactions in the actual increase of landscape fragmentation.. So the number of plant species is incredible wide due to geographical range and great and different functions attributed them.Consequently, it is impossible to talk about a concrete number of botanical groups, or morphological and/or physiological attributes. We have the first challenge in agricultural plant’s concept because we include in the horticultural concept ferns, grasses, herbs, shrubs, trees, cactus…

4

408/04/23

It’s important to take in consideration that the main important characteristic of green plants is the assimilation of CO2 (Cowan 1978), all the other physiological characteristics (vacuole, cuticle, …) are secondary (Larcher 1980, 1995, 2003; Kartiens 1996 ).

Plants need to keep their stomas open in very dry environments, consequently, they continuously lose water (transpiration) and a continuous water flow is established between the soil and the atmosphere (Passioura 1982, 1988, 2001).

All environmental conditions cause hydric deficits in tissues, cause stress ...

Stress describes adverse environmental conditions for normal growth. These conditions, particularly their combination in a short time, can cause important stresses to plants, to crops, gardens, landscape

restorations…….

5

Climate change could be important but now and in the future, all the organisms, the plants, must be affected by stress, but not all and always are vulnerable to them. The most important stresses (Levitt 1980) are:

Abiotics: drought, flooding, salinity, high, low, chilling and freezing temperatures, high radiation, ozone, mineral deficiencies, etc. Biotics: insects, fungi, bacteria, viruses, elicitors, competitiveness among species.

Anthropogenic: air (O3, NOx, SO2, aerosols), water (salinity, microbiology, heavy metals, drugs…) and soil (heavy metals, structure loss …) pollution, herbicides, acid rain, dry deposition, tourism …

Global change causes the combination of many of them in the same space and at the same time, which can cause synergic effects on vegetation, on crops.

6

608/04/23

The potential climate change attributable to global change, can increase local and general temperature (IPCC, 2007). These small changes in temperature may have great influence in atmospheric carbon balance (Valentini et al 2000).

This increase will not be the same around the world (IPCC 2004); it seems it will be particularly important in the Mediterranean Basin (Pinyol et al 1998). Thus, according to the most pessimistic predictions, temperature may increase up to 4ºC and rainfall may have a 10 to 40% decrease (Rosenzwieg. and Tubiello, 1997).

Apart from that, Mediterranean environments, the ecosystem, are characterized by a double stress (Terradas and Savé 1992): drought and cold, or very cold estresses.

Despite the value of the different components of global change, the really important, it’s their integral, drought (ACCUA 2012).

Predictions arising from different models for generating climate change scenarios showed as the Central American and Mediterranean regions would be affected by drought periods of half length (4 - 6 months) and long (more than 12 months), and 3 and 8 times more frequents than at present (Sheffield and Wood 2008).

7

708/04/23

Broadly speaking, other stresses are the appearance of pests, illnesses and weeds, which can go from being mere anecdotes to having quite a significance in crops, gardens, etc. due to global change (Lipa, 1997, 1999).

No doubt, environmental stresses are the main cause for productivity loss, thus current crops are reduced from 3 to 7 times with regard to their potential productivity.

Abiotic stresses and competitivity with weeds represent 90% of this reduction, illnesses 6% and insects 4%. Essentially, all crops are seasonally or yearly affected by drought, flooding, frezing or cold (Faust 1986).

8

SWAT model Water balance model

Distributed and continuous hydrological model coupled to a GIS interface

SWAT + Penman- Monteith, according FAO, permited to evaluate daily crop potential evapotranspiration and also, estimates superficial and sub-superficial flow, aquifers recharge, erosion, sediments deposition and movement, …

Source: SMC 2010 (Meteorological Service of Catalonia)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

19

84

19

89

19

94

19

99

20

04

20

09

20

14

20

19

20

24

20

29

20

34

20

39

20

44

20

49

20

54

20

59

20

64

20

69

20

74

20

79

20

84

20

89

20

94

20

99

An

nu

al p

rec

ipit

atio

n (

mm

)

Climate projections at regional scale

FUTURE PRECIPITATION TRENDS

2006-2030: -2.4 to -3% 2076-2100: -12.2 to -

15.3%

Fluvià

2006-2030: -7.6 to -9.6% 2076-2100: -24 to -28.3%

A2

B1

Five-years running mean Reference

Five-years running mean scenario B1

Five-years running mean scenario A2

Reference

Scenario B1

Scenario A2

FUTURE TEMPERATURE TRENDS

Climate projections at regional scale

10

12.5

15

17.5

20

19

84

19

89

19

94

19

99

20

04

20

09

20

14

20

19

20

24

20

29

20

34

20

39

20

44

20

49

20

54

20

59

20

64

20

69

20

74

20

79

20

84

20

89

20

94

20

99

Mea

n t

em

pe

ratu

re (

ºC)

Fluvià 2006-2030: +0.51 to +0.58 ºC 2076-2100: +2.2 to +2.3

ºC

2006-2030:+0.26 to +0.47ºC 2076-2100:

+3.4 to 3.6 ºC

Five-years running mean Reference

Five-years running mean scenario B1

Five-years running mean scenario A2

Reference

Scenario B1

Scenario A2

A2

B1

Source: SMC 2010 (Meteorological Service of Catalonia)

11

Could be the root system of cultured plants an important carbon sink under global change conditions? (Savé et al. 2009)

Vegetation biomass is generally accumulated two to three fold aboveground in relation to belowground, independently of species, age and agronomical practices (R2=0.977; n=1071; P<0,0001). Consequently the main important carbon sink in crops under Mediterranean conditions is the aboveground biomass which, in general, due to agronomical practices, has a short life span, because an important part of it is removed every year. In average primary productivity is 2.89 and 1.48 Mg C/ha.year and 7.21 and 3.71 Mg C/ha.year for aerial and underground biomass in rain feet and irrigated crops respectively.In average, forest accumulate 1.4MgC/ha.year, (Montes 2012), while vineyards a typical Mediterranean woody crop, accumulate in average three fold less.Hence, agricultural practices could play an important role to improve carbon sink by roots. Also, composting and using biomass as energy source, building materials, among others, from aboveground biomass, are interesting alternatives to regulate the carbon cycle of biomass produced from agriculture.

y = 2,055x+43,16R2 = 0,9880

n=

02000400060008000

100001200014000160001800020000

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000

Sh

oo

t D

W (

g)

Root DW (g)

Relationship between root and shoot biomass (DW) in different species

Series1Túnel EncinaTúnel RobleCabrils PlátanosInvernadero Cirerer Invernadero NogueraCo2 CirererCo2 NogueraVinya

Taxus baccataChamaerops humilisSeries13CycasGingko bilobaPinus nigraPi halepensisRosmarinus officinalisBuxus sempervirensIlex aquifoliumOlea europaeaJuglans nigra

Uncertainities

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1984

1994

2004

2014

2024

2034

2044

2054

2064

2074

2084

2094

Pre

cip

itac

ió a

nu

al (

mm

)

10

12.5

15

17.5

20

1984

1994

2004

2014

2024

2034

2044

2054

2064

2074

2084

2094

Tem

per

atu

ra m

itja

na

(ºC

)

Vulnerabilities

FLUVIÀCrops

Maize

Climatic scenario A2 smcno socio-economic scenario

Impacts

PressuresMean temperatureProjected increments:Period 2006-2030: 0.5ºCPeriod 2076-2100: 3.5ºC

Annual rainfallProjected reductions:Period 2006-2030: -9.6%Period 2076-2100: -28.1%

Spatial rainfall variationProjections for XXI c. (mm/decade):Most severe rainfall reductions are expected in the headwaters

Mean evaporative demand (ETP)Period 1984-2008: 734.4 mmProjected increments:Period 2006-2030: 2.5%Period 2076-2100: 16.8%

Actual Evapotranspiration (ETa)Period 1984-2008: de 277.90 mmProjected changes:Perod 2006-2030: 3.7%Perod 2076-2100: -16.4%

Soil water contentProjected reductions:Reductions of about 12 i 23% in 2006-2030 and 2076-2100 respectively. In this crop, however, only the easily available water in the profile is used: a mean of 55 mm.

Maize water deficitExpected behavior:Period 2006-2030: Irrigation needs increment throughout the watershed. Mean irrigation needs would be 1097 m3/ha/year. Period 2076-2100: The increment worsens up to 2574 m3/ha/year

1984-2008

2006-2030

2076-2100

These analyses do not consider extreme situations and their synergies: drought, strong wind and snowfall events... Results reflect gradual changes and not extreme events

Tendència P (mm/dècada)

-53 - -40

-39 - -30

-29 - -20

-19 - -10

-9 - 0


-53 - -40

-39 - -30

-29 - -20

-19 - -10

-9 - 0

Significant area at 95% confidence level

1984-2008

2006-2030

2076-2100

ConreusALFALSBLAT DE MOROBLAT TOUCIVADACOLZACONREUS FARRATGERSGIRA-SOLOLIVERESORDIPASTIUS PERMANENTSPOMERESRAY-GRASSSORGO

Agricultural land covers in the watershed 19.05% occupied by crops (MCSC 2005). Maize is one of the main crops all over the watershed. It represents a 3,5% (1588 ha) of crop surface in the watershed.

ETr (mm)150 - 250

251 - 350

351 - 450

451 - 550551 - 650

ETr (mm)150 - 250

251 - 350

351 - 450

451 - 550551 - 650

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Aig

ua

al s

òl (

mm

)

Mes

1984-2008

2006-2030

2076-2100

Maize life cycle

Pressures may affect:• Mean temperature in sowing time: 12ºC• Frost risk (Tmin < -2ºC)• Thermal stress by elevated temperatures (Tmax > 30ºC)• Growing Degree Days to fruit maturity. Days with mean temperature >6ºC from April 1st to accumulate 2076ºC (“600” cultivars) or 2126ºC (“700” cultivars).

Dèficit Hídric (mm)0.0 - 50.0

50.1 - 100.0

100.1 - 150.0

150.1 - 200.0

200.1 - 250.0

250.1 - 300.0

300.1 - 350.0

Changes in crop life cycleExpected behavior:Period 2006-2030: the cycle is advanced about 8 days in front of clearly conditions clearly wormer than at present.Period 2076-2100: the cycle is advanced about 14 days. Vegetative cycle reduced and remarkable increase of days with temperatures > 30ºC (grain can be affected).

1984-2008

2006-2030

2076-2100

Adaptations

Agronomy may help improving hydric conditions

Agronomic techniques to reduce water deficit:

• Changes in cultivars and sowing dates• Plantation density reduction• Row orientation• Increment of soil water• Where possible, irrigation with reclaimed water.

Equilibrium of the agroforest mosaic crop-forest-bushes- grassland. This is a key measure both at landscape level (water, carbon, nitrogen, phosphate etc. flows regulation, biodiversity, connectivity, etc.) and at crop level (available water, integrated pest management, thermal and wind regulation, etc.)

1 2

Blat de moro 1984-2008 2006-2030 2076-2100

Dies Tmin <-2 ºC març 4.2 4.2 0.8Dies Tmin <-2 ºC abril 0.8 0.7 0.1Dies Tmax >30 ºC juliol 12.0 15.2 25.4Dies Tmax >30 ºC agost 12.0 15.3 27.3Dia Tmitjana 12 ºC 3 abr 29 mar 22 marDies integral tèrmica 2076 ºC 180.0 174.0 141.0Dies integral tèrmica 2126 ºC 187.0 176.0 143.0

Rainfall tendency (mm/decade)

Crops

AlfalfaMaizeWheatOatRapeForage cropsSunflowerOlive treeBarleyPermanent pasturesApple treeRye grassSorghum

Water deficit (mm)

MaizeDays Tmin<-2ºC March

Days Tmin<-2ºC April

Days Tmax>30ºC July

Days Tmax>30ºC August

Day mean temperature = 12ºC

Day when GDD = 2076

Day when GDD = 2126

apr

ETP (mm)600 - 700

701 - 800

801 - 900

901 - 1000

1001 - 1100

Uncertainities

10

12.5

15

17.5

20

1984

1994

2004

2014

2024

2034

2044

2054

2064

2074

2084

2094

Tem

per

atu

ra m

itja

na

(ºC

)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1984

1994

2004

2014

2024

2034

2044

2054

2064

2074

2084

2094

Pre

cip

itac

ió a

nu

al (

mm

)

Vulnerabilities

SIURANACropsOlive tree

Climatic scenario

A2 smcno socio-economic scenario

Impacts

Adaptations




Agricultural land covers in the watershed 22% occupied by crops(MCSC 2005). Olive trees represent 12% of crop surface in the watershed.

Mean evaporative demand (ETP)Period 1984-2008: 1137.5mmProjected increments :Period 2006-2030: 2.5%Period 2076-2100: 17.0%

Actual Evapotranspiration (ETa)Period 1984-2008: 305.6 mmProjected reductions :Period 2006-2030: -0.7%Period 2076-2100: -16.9%

Soil water contentProjected reductions :Reductions of about 2 i 13% in 2006-2030 and 2076-2100 respectively.

1984-2008

2006-2030

2076-2100

These analyses do not consider extreme situations and their synergies: drought, strong wind and snowfall events... Results reflect gradual changes and not extreme events.


-53 - -40

-39 - -30

-29 - -20

-19 - -10

-9 - 0


-53 - -40

-39 - -30

-29 - -20

-19 - -10

-9 - 0


1984-2008

2006-2030

2076-2100

ETP (mm)1000 - 1125

1126 - 1250

1251 - 1375

1376 - 1500

1501 - 1625

ConreusAMETLLERS

AVELLANER

CIRERERS

ILLA OLIVERA

OLIVERES

VINYES

ETr (mm)150 - 250

251 - 350

351 - 450

451 - 550

551 - 650

ETr (mm)150 - 250

251 - 350

351 - 450

451 - 550

551 - 650

Olive tree life cyclePressures may affect:• Good blossoming needs mean temperature of 15-20ºC• Good fruit development, high oil and sugar content needs a mean temperature of 25-35ºC• Beginning of vegetative period (Tmean 10 ºC)• Frost risk(Tmin < -5ºC)• Growing Degree Days to fruit maturity. Days with mean temperature >10ºC.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Aig

ua

al s

òl (

mm

)

Mesos

1984-2008

2009-2030

2031-2100

Olive tree water deficitMean water deficit for 1984-2008 is 1362 m3/ha/year.Expected behavior:Period 2006-2030:water deficit per season of 1477m3/ha/yearPeriod 2076-2100:water deficit per season of 2557m3/ha/year

Changes in crop life cycleExpected behavior:Period 2006-2030: about 6% increment in GDD, 8% increment in very hot days and a small advancement in the beginning of the vegetative period, which will affect plant phenology.

Period 2076-2100: about 35% increment in GDD, 33% increment in very hot days and a two week advancement in the beginning of the vegetative period, which will affect plant phenology, fruit ripening, and water / production and photosynthesis / respiration balances.

1984-2008

2006-2030

2076-2100

Dèficit hídric (mm)0.0 - 50.0

50.1 - 100.0

100.1 - 150.0

150.1 - 200.0

200.1 - 250.0

250.1 - 300.0

300.1 - 350.0

Olivera 1984-2008 2006-2030 2076-2100

Dies Tmin <-5 ºC març 0.2 0.2 0.0Dies Tmin <-5 ºC abril 0.0 0.1 0.0Dies Tmax >35 ºC agost 2.5 4.9 18.3Dies Tmax >35 ºC setembre 0.0 0.1 1.6Dia Tmitjana 10 ºC 26 mar 24 mar 13 marGraus dia acumulats des 1 d'abril 1513.3 1605.5 2027.5Graus dia acumulats des 15 març 1577.8 1678.6 2165.9

Olive tree cultivation in Siurana, poses remarkable irrigation needs, difficult to cover in this area

On the other hand, temperature raise will generate changes in phenology that can hinder condition optimum fruit development.

Hence, it is diffícult to propose agronomic options to ensure stability and productivity level of the productTherefore, crop change seems a logical option to maintein sufficient income for present olive tree growers in this watershed

2New conditions can compromise olive tree viability in Siurana watershed

1


Crops

Almond treeHazelnut treeCherry treeOlive tree islandOlive treeGrapevine

Water deficit (mm)Days Tmin<-5ºC March

Days Tmin<-5ºC April


Days Tmax>35ºC September

Day Mean temperature = 10ºC

GDD from April 1st

GDD from March 15th

10

12.5

15

17.5

20

1984

1994

2004

2014

2024

2034

2044

2054

2064

2074

2084

2094

Tem

per

atu

ra m

itja

na

(ºC

)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1984

1994

2004

2014

2024

2034

2044

2054

2064

2074

2084

2094

Pre

cip

itac

ió a

nu

al (

mm

)

Vulnerabilities

SIURANACrops

Grape vineClimatic scenario

A2 smcno socio-economic scenario

Impacts

Adaptations




Mean evaporative demand (ETP)Period 1984-2008: 1137.5mmProjected increments :Period 2006-2030: 2.5%Period 2076-2100: 17.0%

Evapotranspiració real (ETr)Period 1984-2008: 110.4 mmProjected changes :No relevant changes in any period (increases of 0.36% and 0.27% respectively).

Soil water contentProjected reductions :Expected reductions of 25% in 2006-2030 and 64% in 2076-2100.

1984-2008

2006-2030

2076-2100

Uncertainities

These analyses do not consider extreme situations and their synergies: drought, strong wind and snowfall events... Results reflect gradual changes and not extreme events


-53 - -40

-39 - -30

-29 - -20

-19 - -10

-9 - 0


-53 - -40

-39 - -30

-29 - -20

-19 - -10

-9 - 0


1984-2008

2006-2030

2076-2100

ETP (mm)1000 - 1125

1126 - 1250

1251 - 1375

1376 - 1500

1501 - 1625

ConreusAMETLLERS

AVELLANER

CIRERERS

ILLA OLIVERA

OLIVERES

VINYES

Grapevine life cyclePressures may affect:• Frost risk (Tmin < 0ºC)• Beginning of vegetative period (Tmean 10 ºC)• Thermal stress by elevated temperatures (Tmax > 30ºC)• Growing Degree Days to fruit maturity. Days with mean temperature >10ºC.

Grapevine water deficitExpected behavior: Mean water deficit for 1984-2008 is 19 m3/ha/year.Period 2006-2030: water deficit per season of 31 m3/ha/yearPeriod 2076-2100: water deficit per season of 144 m3/ha/year.These are small irrigation needs, but remarkable in Siurana watershed, as all watering comes from rainfall reserves in ponds.

Changes in crop life cycleExpected behavior:Phenology will change and, in consequence, agronomy too.A new equilibrium will be established in grape in the balance sugar/phenolic maturity

1984-2008

2006-2030

2076-2100

Agronomic techniques:• Changes in cultivars and rootstocks • Plantation density reduction•Changes in trellis system, orientation and pruning• improvement of soil water storage and conduction through organic matter ammendments• increase use of mulching systems to decrease direct soil evaporation

New plantations in new places where future conditions would be more favorable or, at least, similar to present conditions in the actual places.21

ETr (mm)150 - 250

251 - 350

351 - 450

451 - 550

551 - 650

ETr (mm)150 - 250

251 - 350

351 - 450

451 - 550

551 - 650

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Aig

ua

al s

òl (

mm

)

Mes

1984-2008

2009-2030

2031-2100 Vinya 1984-2008 2006-2030 2076-2100

Dies Tmin <0 ºC març 3.3 3.0 0.5Dies Tmin <0 ºC abril 0.6 0.6 0.0Dies Tmax >30 ºC agost 21.0 23.3 29.5Dies Tmax >30 ºC setembre 18.9 22.2 29.7Dia Tmitjana 10 ºC 26 mar 24 mar 13 marGraus dia acumulats des 1 d'abril 1513.3 1605.5 2027.5Graus dia acumulats des 15 març 1577.8 1678.6 2165.9

Dèficit Hídric (mm)0.0 - 50.0

50.1 - 100.0

100.1 - 150.0

150.1 - 200.0

200.1 - 250.0

Agronomy may help improving hydric conditions

Equilibrium of the agroforest mosaic. This is a key measure both at landscape level (water, carbon, nitrogen, phosphate etc. flows regulation, biodiversity, connectivity, etc.) and at crop level (available water, integrated pest management, thermal and wind regulation, etc.). Grapevine plantation might be used to slow down the evolution of secondary scrub and forest growth in abandoned croplands

3

The temporality of this crop and wood accumulation in trunk and roots confers it a remarkable role as a carbon

4

Agricultural land covers in the watershed El 22% del Siurana està ocupat per conreus (MCSC 2005). Grapevine represents 16.1% of crop surface (2921 ha) in the watershed


Crops

Almond treeHazelnut treeCherry treeOlive tree islandOlive treeGrapevine

Water deficit (mm)

Days Tmin<0ºC March

Days Tmin<0ºC April


Days Tmax>30ºC September

Day Mean temperature = 10ºC

GDD from April 1st

GDD from March 15th

Grapevine

15

ConclusionsDrought will be the more important stress associated to global, to climate change in XXI century. The deep and wide knowledge of plant responses in front to stress must help to solve, avoid or reduce some vulnerabilities of crops and consequently could permits maintain, even increase the productivity and the water use efficiency in Mediterranean area under these new and quickly changed conditions.

16

AcknowledgementsWhen something is done, it is always necessary to express our gratitude to those who, with either their work, moral, economic or institutional support, helped to make our efforts shine above standards. For this reason, we would like to mention:

Jordi Morato, Jaume Terradas, Javier Retana, Jordi Comas Angelet, Núria Canyameras, Rafael Mujeriego, Miquel Salgot, Àngel Freixo, Antonio Vestrella, José Montero, Eulàlia Serra, Cristian Morales, Beatriz Grau, Mª. Carmen Bellido, Marc Pujol, Lucila Candela,Julian Cazaña, Marc Ferre, Toni Araño, Romeo , Spot. . . Àrea Metropolitana de Barcelona, Ajuntament de Barcelona, CESPA, Fundació Abertis, Fundació Territori i Paisatge, Ajuntament de Madrid; Ministerio de Agricultura (INIA), Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia (CICYT and CDTI), Agencia de Gestió d’Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca (AGAUR), Projecte ACCUA, Proyecto Consolider MONTES.

Save

Documents

Transcript of Save