SASA NEWS/SASV NUUS - sastat · National Park, the Modjadji Cycad Reserve, the Baobab Tree Reserve...

SASA Newsletter June 2013

1 Though leader award

2 Editorial

New members

Call for Honorary Members and Fellows of SASA

3 President’s column

4 SASA2013 1st call for papers

5 SASA2013

10 Invitation to host SASA 2013 official guests

11 SASA2013 proceedings – peer reviewed papers

11 The Herbert Sichel medal

12 Education Committee

13 Department of Statistical Sciences at UCT

14 Tribute – Edna Schultz

15 Nominations – 2014 EC

16 Announcement – 2nd ICCSSA Convention

17 Article – ICCSSA

Thought leader award

SASA had the opportunity to award a Thought Leader Award to one of its members due to the

generous sponsorship from SAS South Africa. The SASA EC nominated a small committee tasked to compile a list of criteria for the evaluation for the Thought Leader Award. The committee consisted of Dr Roelof Coetzer, Dr Vince Micali, Dr Pravesh Debba, Dr Gary Sharp and Murray de Villiers (SAS). The criteria were compiled to reflect the impact of the person within the South African statistical community across a wide range of activities and significant contributions in academia, industry, government and elsewhere. Furthermore, it was important that the criteria are unbiased when considering the contributions from academics and practitioners in industry alike.

The final criteria consisted of contri-butions and impacts in Leadership,

Knowledge Generation, Human Capital Development, Impact of the Work and Research and Attracting Funding. Due to time constraints, the committee was also tasked to put for-ward six nominations for the Thought Leader Award. The SASA EC evalu-ated the six nominees according to the specified criteria and Prof Freek Lombard was awarded the Thought Leader for 2013.

Prof Lombard is currently Emeritus Professor at the Department of Statistics, University of Johannesburg; Extraordinary Professor at the Centre for Business Mathematics and Informatics, North-West University, Potchefstroom; and a visiting Professor at the Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA. He has a track record of significant contributions and impacts in academia and industry including about 16 PhD graduates, over 70 published articles in peer-reviewed journals, a recipient of many scientific awards, and has consulted to industry on a wide range of applications ranging from Pharmaceutical, Manufacturing and Industry, Environmental Control, Mining, Legal and Financial. Prof Lombard is indeed a worthy recipient of the first Thought Leader Award and on behalf of SASA we congratulate him on receiving this prestigious award.

The SASA EC will open up nominations to all its members in January 2014 for the 2014 Thought Leader Award. g

Newsletter of the South African Statistical Association • Nuusbrief van die Suid-Afrikaanse Statistiese VerenigingPostal Address: SASA, PO Box 3341, Matieland, 7602 South Africa

SASA NEWS/SASV NUUSWebsite: www.sastat.org.za

This issue is sponsored by the University of Cape Town

ISSN 1011-8039 June 2013

Prof Freek Lombard – Thought Leader for 2013

http://www.sastat.org.za/


SASA NewsContact details for the newsletter editorDr. Mardi D Jankowitz University of South Africa Department of Decision Sciences Preller Street, Muckleneuk Ridge, Pretoria, P O Box 392, UNISA 0003 Telephone: +27 12 429 4629 Fax: +27 12 429 4898 email: [email protected]

Please send all Newsletter matters to the Editor at the above address, and all other SASA matters to

The Secretary, P.O. Box 3341, Matieland, 7602, South Africaemail: [email protected]

The Newsletter is an informal collection of news items and short articles of interest.

The Newsletter will appear in March, June, September and December.

Submission deadlines: Issue Deadline DateMarch 1 February June 1 MaySeptember 1 AugustDecember 1 NovemberThe views expressed in this Newsletter are those of the contributors and do not necessarily reflect the policies of the SA Statistical Association or the editor of the Newsletter.

Designed by Graphcom Design Studio cc

Ms F Reyneke, Lecturer: University of Pretoria, [email protected],

Ms M Krugell, Statistical Consultant: North West University, [email protected]

Ms M Meisel, Property Analyst: Lightstone, [email protected]

Mr P-R de Kock, Analytics Director: Lightstone [email protected]

Dr S Er, Lecturer: University of Cape Town, [email protected]

Ms K Mauff, Statistical Consultant: University of Cape Town, [email protected]

Ms PT Molale, Lecturer: University of Limpopo (Medunsa campus), [email protected]

Mr A Mostert, Statistician: Sasol, [email protected]

Ms E Nkgabutle, Officer Statistician: Eskom, [email protected] g

Welcome!

New members of SASA

Editorial

Mardi

Dear SASA members

Welcome to all the new and existing SASA members.

This issue has the latest information on the SASA2013 conference to be hosted by the University of Limpopo in November this year. It also contains an invitation to host our SASA 2013 official guests at your Institution/Department. Please take note of deadlines for papers for this conference.

The page containing ICCSSA News has details about the ICCSSA Convention to be held in Midrand, Johannesburg in June. The Education Committee gives feedback from bursary recipients and the first thought leader, sponsored by SAS, is announced in this issue. Then there is a tribute to Edna Schultz who typed the SASA Journal for many years.

Thank you to UCT for sponsoring this issue. g

Make a note:Please fill in the

Nomination form on p15 for Vice-President and Secretary

for the SASA 2014 EC

According to the constitution of the South African Statistical Association individuals can be elected to the status of Honorary Member or Fellow of the association. These are described as follows:

Honorary Member:Life-long honorary membership of the Association can be bestowed on an individual who has made an exceptional contribution to the knowledge of statistics or to the advancement of the Association and who has retired from his/her ordinary position.

Fellow:Any enfranchised member who has made outstanding contributions to the advancement of statistical science may be nominated and elected Fellow of the Association. In the selection of Fellows, the nature and quality of the candidate’s contribution to the advancement of statistical sciences shall be taken into consideration.

Nominations for Honorary members and Fellows, appropriately motivated, and put forward by at least two enfranchised members of the association, should be submitted confidentially, before 31 August 2013 to the Chair of the SASA Fellowship Committee, Dr Gary Sharp ([email protected]). g

Call for nominations for Honorary Members and Fellows of the Association

mailto:[email protected]




In this issue of the Newsletter we have our first call for papers for the 55th Annual Conference

of SASA. The SASA conference will be hosted by the University of Limpopo from 4 to 8 November 2013 and will be held at The Ranch in Polokwane, Limpopo Province. I apologise to all the people of the Limpopo Province for referring to the province as the Northern Province in my previous column.

I visited the University of Limpopo on 18 February 2013 and was very impressed with the hospitality of the people, the School of Mathematical and Computer Sciences, and The Ranch as the venue for the conference. The theme of SASA2013 is: The power and impact of statistics on society. The theme is very appropriate considering the many challenges the statistical community have in South Africa today as well as 2013 being the International Year of Statistics (Statistics2013). The challenges are mainly underpinned by the decrease in experienced academic cohort and the difficulty to attract and retain suitable academic staff at many of the SA Universities.

However, despite the many challenges we also have excellent strengths within the association considering (amongst many) SASA’s well-established membership, an inclusive and supportive society, a

very good annual conference, and a high quality statistical journal. The annual conference (SASA2013) provides the platform for knowledge sharing amongst peers, for establishing active and fruitful collaborations, for encouraging and mentoring young people, and for communicating the significant and far-reaching impacts statisticians are making on all aspects of society. Therefore, we need to engage in these initiatives and build on the strengths to tackle and overcome the challenges we face as a community.

The EC had a 2-day meeting on 10 and 11 April to continue with the strategic planning process to address the challenges and burning issues for SASA. We performed a detailed SWOT analysis for SASA, from which specific strategic objectives have been specified. We are still busy with completing the list of strategic objectives and assigning specific deliverables to each one. These objectives will constitute a longer term strategy aimed at the growth and sustainability for SASA. The EC has assigned priority to this task and the strategic objectives will be revealed at SASA2013.

I hope everyone has by now received the new-look South African Statistical Journal (SASJ). The journal has undergone a significant facelift! I would like to thank Prof James Allison and Dr Pravesh Debba for initiating the changes and for their efforts to put the new journal

out. The new SASJ looks great and professional.

SASA had the opportunity to award a Thought Leader Award to one of its members due to the generous sponsorship from SAS South Africa. A Thought Leader is someone who has made a huge impact within the South African statistical community across a wide range of activities and has made significant contributions in academia, industry, government and elsewhere. I congratulate Prof Freek Lombard for being awarded the Thought Leader for 2013, and so being the first recipient of this prestigious award.

I remind everyone of the celebra-tion of the International Year of Statistics, and to visit the public web site at www.statistics2013.org. The aim of the campaign is to raise awareness of statistics amongst the general public. Again, the aim of Statistics2013 fits in with the SASA mission and the theme of the upcom-ing SASA conference. Therefore, please actively participate in these celebrations by communicating the contributions and impacts of statistics and statisticians to soci-ety, including government, finance and industry. g

Roelof Coetzer

SASA NUUS

President’s column“I remind everyone of the celebration of the International Year of Statistics, and to visit the public web site at www.statistics2013.org.”

Roelof Coetzer - SASA President 2013

http://www.statistics2013.org

http://www.statistics2013.org


SASA Visitor’s Report 2012: Prof Racine


The South African Statistical Association (SASA) in collabo-ration with the University of

Limpopo‘s Department of Statistics and Operations Research in the School of Mathematical and Computer Sciences, are delight-ed to host the 55th Annual SASA Conference that will take place on 04-08 November 2013 at The Ranch in Polokwane, Limpopo Province – the province which is popularly known for its tourism attractions that include the Kruger National Park, the Modjadji Cycad Reserve, the Baobab Tree Reserve in the Musina Nature Reserve and Mapungubwe National Park.

As SASA was established in 1953, the 2013 Conference marks the Association’s 60th Anniversary. The annual conference is an important component in the efforts of SASA to achieve its mission of facilitating advancement of statistical knowl-edge and promoting applications of statistical theory in all spheres of life and hence contribute posi-tively to the development of South Africa, the SADC region, the African continent in general, as well as the global world.

SASA 2013 gives the University of Limpopo and the South African Statistical Association the perfect opportunity to observe The International Year of Statistics (Statistics2013) and increase the

public’s awareness of the powerful and far-reaching effects our discipline has on everyone. Three activities SASA is undertaking in striving to accomplish its mission are to actively participate in appropriate processes and structures which impact on the South African society; be accessible to, and supportive of, the users of statistics in the broader community; and actively cooperate with organisations and societies associated with disciplines that are broadly related to statistics. Our chosen theme, The Power and Impact of Statistics on Society, supports the objectives of both SASA and Statistics2013.

The University of Limpopo is the result of a merger on 01 January 2005 between the former Medical University of Southern Africa (MEDUNSA) and the University of the North. The extension of University Education Act of 1959 made provision for the establishment of racially exclusive universities for black South Africans. Under the provisions of the Act, the University College of the North was established about thirty kilometres from the Limpopo Province town of Polokwane on 01 August 1959. The College was placed under the academic trusteeship of the University of South Africa. This formative relationship was maintained until the South African

Parliament promulgated the University of the North Act (Act No. 47 of 1969), thus bringing to an end the College status as of 01 January 1970. The Turfloop Campus of the University nestles in the foothills of the Hwiti (Wolkberg range) in Mankweng, midway between Polokwane and the spectacular splendour of Magoebaskloof.

In addition to participants from all over South Africa, the conference is expected to attract participants from several other nations in Africa, including Angola, Botswana, Kenya, Lesotho, Madagascar, Mozambique, Namibia, Swaziland, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Hosting this conference, which is the premier statistics conference in South Africa, is both a tremendous honour and opportunity for the University of Limpopo and other institutions of higher learning and industry in the Limpopo Province to promote collaborative efforts to solve problems shared by South Africa and its neighbours, in particular.

From the industry perspective, the University of Limpopo has a strong collaboration with Statistics South Africa (Stats SA). Given the recent release of the results of the South African census 2011, we intend to invite Stats SA and other National Statistics Offices in Africa to showcase the results of their 2010 round censuses. The Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC) in South Africa promotes the use of their secondary research data by academics, policy makers and other stakeholders. The HSRC and other

55th Annual Conference of theSouth African Statistical Association

Venue: The Ranch, Polokwane, Limpopo Province

Workshops: Monday 04 and Tuesday 05 November 2013

Main Conference: Wednesday 06 to Friday 08 November 2013

Website Link: http://www.ul.ac.za/conf/sasa2013


SASA2013

research councils in South Africa will also be invited to the Conference.

While our public promotion of SASA 2013, our plenary speakers, and several sessions with the greatest potential public appeal will be aimed at increasing the public’s mindfulness of the impact of statistics on all aspects of society, we will place a particularly strong emphasis on nurturing statistics as a profession among young people. The Conference will enhance the quality of learning for our students and junior staff.

Given the support we are receiving from the Executive Committee of SASA and our collaborators nationally, regionally and globally, SASA 2013 is destined to be an unforgettable success! We hope to see you at the conference. For more information please contact the organising committee at [email protected].

PRELIMINARY PROGRAMME

WorkshopsMonday 04 and Tuesday 05 November 2013Workshops will start at 09H00 and end at 17H00.

Workshop Presenters and Details:

When: Monday 04 November 2013

Presenter: Prof. Ray Chambers, NIASRA, University of Wollongong, Australia

Abstract: Small area estimation is that part of sample survey

methodology concerned with model-based inference for unplanned domains, in cases where standard domain-specific estimates are too imprecise. In many applications these domains are area-based, and the imprecision arises because domain sample sizes are small, hence the descriptor ‘small area estimation’. This workshop will consist of two parts. In the morning I will focus on describing recent methodological advances in using sample survey data for small area estimation. In the afternoon I will focus on an actual sample survey data set, and use it to illustrate implementation of the different methods of small area estimation discussed in the morning.

Advances: The standard approach to small area estimation is to assume that a mixed model holds for the population of interest; i.e. a model that uses fixed effects to ‘explain’ between unit variability and random effects to characterise the differences between the small areas. Recently, alternatives to this approach have been proposed that may be better suited to the type of sample survey data that are observed in practice. Here I will focus on the use of M-quantile models to characterise between-area differences in the regression relationship linking the variable for which small area estimates are required and the auxiliary variables that are thought to ‘explain’ its variability (both between units as well as between areas). I will outline the basic ideas underpinning the application of M-quantile models to small area estimation (Chambers and Tzavidis 2006; Tzavidis et al. 2010)), and illustrate how these can be extended to small area data that are spatially non-homogeneous (Salvati et al. 2012) and to outlier

contaminated data (Chambers et al. 2010). Applications to poverty mapping (Tzavidis et al. 2008) will be described, as well as current research extending the M-quantile modelling approach to binary data.

Practice: In this session I use data obtained in a farm economic survey to illustrate the application of model-based small area estimation (SAE) techniques to the problem of estimating regional farm business performance. Both well-known small area estimators, such as the empirical best linear unbiased predictor (EBLUP), as well as more recently proposed small area estimators, such as the M-quantile estimator, the outlier robust EBLUP and the model-based direct estimator, are considered. The issue of mean squared error estimation is discussed, as is the construction of confidence intervals. Since model-fitting is a crucial part of SAE, I place special emphasis on model diagnostics for specifying the small area working model, on diagnostic measures for validating the reliability of direct and indirect (model-based) small area estimators and on providing practical guidelines to the prospective user of small area estimation techniques.

Target Audience: This workshop is aimed at statisticians, both official and academic, working with sample survey data and with an interest in small area inference, as well as researchers with an interest in building statistical models that exploit grouping structure in data. The presentation will assume familiarity with basic statistical modelling ideas, particularly linear regression modelling.

Workshop 1: Small Area Estimation: Advances and Practice


SASA2013

When: Monday 04 November 2013

Presenter: Prof. Peter McCullagh, University of Chicago, USA

Abstract: This course will review the theory of generalized linear models and also the application of such models using examples drawn mainly from scientific research. The theory begins with the construction of families of distributions by exponential re-weighting, with examples including Poisson, binomial, multinomial, gamma, hypergeometric, Gaussian and other families.

The variance function plays a key role in model choice. The values observed in experimental situations are often distributed independently, but seldom distributed identically, so it is necessary to formulate a model for the dependence of the mean vector on covariates such as treatment.

Key ideas from linear models, subspaces, interaction, factorial specifications, and their adaptation to generalized linear models will be covered. Ideas from likelihood theory, such as asymptotic distribution theory of parameter estimates, standard errors and confidence intervals will be discussed.

The last lecture will focus on recent work connected with random partitions and classification.

When: Tuesday 05 November 2013

Presenter: Dr. Bradley Jones, SAS Institute, North Carolina

Abstract: For an engineer, a process study involves several steps:

1) Defining the problem - identifying the factors and responses of interest;

2) Choosing or creating a design - this often requires thinking about the possible models that might be fit to the data;

3) Running the experiment and recording the data;

4) Analyzing the results which involves statistical model fitting;

5) Interpreting these results in the context of the engineering problem, which may involve a mathematical optimization.

Textbooks on design of experiments often spend most of their pages on the analysis of the data. Designs are often introduced as tables with little emphasis on construction alternatives or design comparison.

In this workshop we will consider case studies in design of experiments. For each case we will generate more than one design and use the design evaluation capabilities of JMP to compare these designs before choosing one. We will then analyze the data with the goal of finding a parsimonious model that is adequate to describe the relationship between the factors and the response. Finally, we will use this model to suggest how to change the settings of the factors to improve the responses. This step may require either optimization or, in the case of robustness studies, Monte Carlo simulation followed by optimization.

We will use JMP software from SAS to support each of the above activities.

When: Tuesday 05 November 2013

Presenter: Prof. James Cochran, Louisiana Tech University, USA

Bank of Ruston Endowed Research Professor

Past Chair, Statistics Without Borders

Editor-in-Chief, Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science

Abstract: This colloquium, which will be similar to the several Doctoral Colloquia I have organized in the United States, will comprise a series of sessions designed to help PhD or potential PhD students successfully deal with issues they face early in their studies and careers. Session discussions will be led by successful statisticians who are members of the SASA in cooperation with successful statisticians from other African nations. Session topics may include:

•writing a vita (curriculum vitae) for funding and/or professional recognition; writing a research proposal; what entails a good PhD research topic (sharing experiences across the cultures of SADC and other African nations);

•finding good research topics with foci on i) in interdisciplinary research and ii) in partnerships with government and private industry;

•the publication process from submission to decision;

•the tenure and promotion process;•working outside of academia;•service to the discipline and to

professional societies;•success in the classroom.

Providing graduate students with exposure to and the opportunity to participate in discussions on these topics will improve the early career

Workshop 2: A Short Course on

Generalized Linear Models

Workshop 3: Experiment Design,Modeling

and Optimization using SAS/JMP

Workshop 4: Doctoral Colloquium

Workshop

Both Professor McCullagh and Dr Jones will be in South Africa the week before the conference (27 October – 2 November 2013).

Read more on Page 10.


SASA2013

performance of these students after graduation, and ultimately strengthen the statistics community.

Target Audience: This workshop is aimed at graduate students who are in PhD programs or are considering entering PhD programs.

Plenary session titles

There will be four plenary presenters as follows:

Plenary Session 1: Prof. James CochranStatistics2013 Honorary Plenary Speaker

Plenary Session 2: Dr. Bradley JonesDesigned Experiments that Changed the World

Plenary Session 3: Prof. Raymond ChambersSpatio-Temporal Modelling of Rainfall

Plenary Session 4: Prof. Peter McCullaghSurvival Models with Health Monitoring

PRESENTATION GUIDELINES

Speakers will have 15 minutes for presentation and 05 minutes for questions / discussion. All presentations must be in electronic format. All computers at the presentation venues will have Microsoft Office 2010 as well as a PDF Reader.

REGISTRATION AND ABSTRACTS

Registration must be done online on the conference website: http://www.ul.ac.za/conf/sasa2013

Online registration will enable delegates to register their details and submit their abstracts.

When paying for registration please use your surname and name (in that order) as reference.

Banking details will be available when you register online. Amounts payable for each of the different registration options are listed in the accompanying table.

ACCOMMODATION AND TRANSPORT

Delegates are responsible for their own accommodation arrangements. Accommodation is available at The Ranch where the Conference will take place.

NB: Young statisticians will have breakfast on the morning of Thursday 07 November. It is therefore recommended that delegates participating in this event book accommodation without breakfast on this day.

Delegates are strongly advised to arrange their own transport.

More information on accommodation and transport will be posted on the conference website: http://www.ul.ac.za/conf/sasa2013

SASA 2013 IMPORTANT DATES:

Pre-Conference Workshops: 04 – 05 November, 2013 Main Conference: 06 – 08 November, 2013

Registration

Opens: Monday 03 June 2013 Early bird closes: Friday 20 September 2013 Closes: Friday 11 October 2013

Submissions of Abstracts Opens: Monday 03 June 2013 Closes: Friday 20 September 2013

SPONSORSHIP PACKAGES

PLATINUM SPONSOR: MINIMUM R90,000

•Name and logo on the front cover of the conference programme

•Demonstration (Display/ 10 min marketing presentation) slot in conference programme

•Exhibition stand at the conference•Conference registration for 4

delegates•Button (Link) on website•Full page colour ad in all 4 issues

of the newsletter•Full page ad in conference

programme (inside front cover)•Inserts into conference bags•Opportunity to provide writing

pads and pens•Two branded slots in the

programme•Opportunity to give a 10 minute

talk at the opening function or social function

•Opportunity to provide banners, logo’s, etc. for branding at the plenary session

GOLD SPONSOR: R60,000 – R89,000•Demonstration slot in conference

programme•Exhibition stand at the conference•Conference registration for 2

delegates•Button on website•Half page black and white ad in all

4 issues of the newsletter•Full page black and white ad in

conference programme (back cover)

•Inserts into conference bags

SILVER SPONSOR: R30,000 – R59,000

•Demonstration slot in conference programme


delegate

All enquiries to:[email protected]


SASA Members Non-SASA Members Students1

On the Day03/06/2013

- 20/09/2013

21/09/2013 -

11/10/2013

03/06/2013 -

20/09/2013

21/09/2013 -

11/10/2013

03/06/2013 -

20/09/2013

21/09/2013 -

11/10/2013

Registration for all 3 days of the conference2

R1900 R2500 R2400 R2900 R1600 R2200 R4000

Registration for Wednesday only3

R900 R1000 R1100 R1400 R800 R950 R2000

Registration for Thursday only4

R1000 R1200 R1200 R1500 R950 R1100 R2000

Registration for Friday only5 R500 R550 R550 R600 R400 R450 R1500

Workshop 1: Prof. Chambers 6

R650 R800 R750 R950 R600 R750 R1000

Workshop 2: Prof. McCullagh 6

R650 R800 R750 R950 R600 R750 R1000

Workshop 3: Dr. Jones 6

R650 R800 R750 R950 R600 R750 R1000

Workshop 4: Prof. Cochran 6

R650 R800 R750 R950 R600 R750 R1000

Young Statisticians’ Break-fast

R80 R80 R80 R80 R80 R80 R100

Accompanying persons Meet & Greet R150

Welcoming function R250

Gala dinner R520

All Prices include 14% VAT

1 Prices for bona fide (i.e. full-time) students. Proof of registration at an academic institution necessary.

2 Includes admittance to all sessions, conference bag plus inserts, conference proceedings, the Book of Abstracts, tea, coffee (with snacks) and lunch (Wednesday, Thursday and Friday) plus the two evening functions on

Wednesday and Thursday (welcoming function and gala dinner).

3 Includes admittance to all sessions on Wednesday, conference proceedings, the Book of Abstracts, tea, coffee (with snacks) and lunch (Wednesday) and the welcoming function (evening).

4 Includes admittance to all sessions on Thursday, conference proceedings, the Book of Abstracts, tea, coffee

(with snacks) and lunch (Thursday) and the gala dinner (evening).

5 Includes admittance to all sessions on Friday, conference proceedings, the Book of Abstracts, tea and coffee (with snacks) and lunch.

6 Includes tea, coffee (with snacks), lunch and the meet & greet function on the day of the workshop.

SASA2013

•Button on website•Half page black and white ad in all

4 issues of the newsletter•Full page black and white ad in

conference programme (inside back cover)

•Inserts into conference bagsBRONZE SPONSOR: R15,000 – R29,000•One demonstration slot in

conference programme


delegate•Full page black and white ad in

conference programme•Inserts into conference bags

EXHIBITOR: R4,000


delegate

•Inserts into conference bags

WORKSHOP SPONSOR: MINIMUM R30,000

•Exhibition stand at the workshop/conference

•Registration for 4 delegates at workshop

•Acknowledgements at the cocktail party at the end of the workshop g

REGISTRATION FEES: WORKSHOPS AND CONFERENCE


SASA 2013

Professor Peter McCullagh is a John D. MacArthur Distinguished Service

Professor at the Department of Statistics of the University of Chicago, United States of America. His wide and varied research interests span mainly ten areas: Linear and generalized linear models, exponential families; Asymptotic approximation to the distribution of estimators; Variance components and structural covariance models; Spatial models in agricultural applications, particularly models that are closed under conformal transformation; Category theory and projective systems: stochastic processes, regression processes, and causality; Representation theory for normal categories: Linear models, factorial models, and homologous factors; Random objects: sequences, subsets, partitions, trees, arrays, matrices, etc; Notions of exchangeability and partial exchangeability; relation to categories; Foundations of statistical models: functorial definition, and lastly; Monte-Carlo integration as an application of a statistical model.

Professor McCullagh has since 1977 authored/co-authored two Chapman & Hall monographs, one of which is available in two editions. In the same period, he has also participated in thirty

four major articles as an invited discussant. Almost all of these articles and discussions appear in the flagship journals of the Royal Statistical Society, the Institute of Mathematical Statistics, the American Statistical Society and the International Institute of Statistics.

SASA Official guest: Dr Bradley Jones is the Principal Research Fellow in the JMP division of

SAS, where he is responsible for the development of new methods in design of experiments (DOE). He built the JMP Custom Designer, a general and powerful tool for generating optimal experimental designs. He holds a patent on the use of DOE for minimizing registration errors in the manufacture of laminated circuit boards and is the inventor of the prediction profile plot for interactive exploration of multiple input and output response surfaces.

Before joining SAS in 1997, he was the principal statistician at The MathWorks Inc., where he designed and implemented the MATLAB Statistics Toolbox. He was Chief Scientist and a founding partner of Catalyst Inc., a company created to support the use of computer-aided DOE in industry. Dr Jones is the 2012 recipient of the Statistics in Chemistry award from the American Statistical Association (ASA). In both 2009 and 2011, he received the American Society for Quality’s Brumbaugh Award for the paper making the largest contribution to industrial quality control. He also won the 2010 Lloyd S. Nelson Award for the article having the greatest immediate impact to practitioners. Jones is the Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of Quality Technology and a Fellow of the ASA. He is co-author with Peter Goos of the book Optimal Design of Experiments: A Case Study Approach. He holds a master’s degree in statistics from Florida State University and a PhD in applied economic sciences from the University of Antwerp, Belgium. g

Invitation to host our SASA 2013 official guests at your Institution/Department

Both Professor McCullagh and Dr Jones will be in South Africa the week before the conference (27 October – 2 November 2013). Departments and Institutions who wish to invite our official guests may contact Paul Mostert at [email protected] before 15 July 2013.

It is expected of hosts to book his accommodation and arrange all transport and to entertain him in true South African style during his visit. His domestic flight costs will be arranged and covered by SASA. The details of this will be communicated to host Departments at a later stage.

SASA Official guest: Professor Peter McCullagh

SASA Official guest: Dr Bradley Jones

SASA2013: Workshops: Monday 04 and Tuesday 05 November 2013 Main Conference: Wednesday 06 to Friday 08 November 2013 [email protected]

http://asq.org/pub/jqt/

http://www.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-0470744618.html

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Call for Nominations and SubmissionsThe Herbert Sichel Medal is awarded annually to the member (or members) of the Association who has (have) published the best statistical paper during the previous year. Accordingly, members are invited to nominate or submit papers for consideration for the 2013 Herbert Sichel Medal. The following rules will govern the award:

1. Papers on theoretical or applied statistics are eligible. 2. Single- and co-authored papers in which the principal

author is a member of SASA will be considered. 3. The papers must have been published (either online

or in hard copy) in 2012. 4. Papers appearing in refereed journals, in fully refereed

conference proceedings or as refereed chapters in books are eligible (books, theses or dissertations are not).

5. Nominations for the award may be made by a member of SASA (who is not an author) or submissions may be made by the author(s). An individual may only submit one paper for the award.

6. Nominations and submissions must (preferably) be e-mailed, in PDF format, to:

Paul Fatti (Chairman of the Judges Panel) at [email protected]

Otherwise they can be sent by post to him at:

The School of Statistics & Actuarial Science

University of the Witwatersrand P.O. WITS 2050 to reach him by 31 August, 2013.7. In evaluating the papers for the medal, the panel will

use the following set of criteria:• The impact of the paper in its specific field• How innovative are the ideas or techniques used in

the paper• The relevance of the problem being addressed• How well-written is the paperThe decision by SASA on the award of the medal will be final. The membership of the panel is still to be finalised. Any member of the panel who is himself a nominee will be replaced by someone not nominated for the medal. The winner(s) of the Herbert Sichel Medal will be announced at the 2013 Annual Conference of the Association, which will be hosted by the University of Limpopo during November. g

The Herbert Sichel Medal

SASA will once again be producing proceedings of peer-reviewed papers from its

annual conference. Presenters who would like to submit contributions for review and inclusion in the proceedings are requested to take note of the following:

Deadline for submission date of full paper(s): 29 July 2013 Instructions to authors:

Papers may cover all aspects of theoretical and/or applied statistics.

All submissions must be submitted as a single pdf document with all figures and tables placed in their desired positions. The pdf file can be constructed from any typesetting software (including, Microsoft

Word, TeX software, Scientific Workplace, etc.) and, at this stage of the submission process, the author is not required to submit the article in the exact format required by the proceedings.

Email two copies, original and blinded, of the full paper to Dr Leonard Santana: [email protected].

Please include “SASA 2013 peer-reviewed paper” in the subject line of the email. For queries related to the peer-reviewed process, please contact

Dr Leonard [email protected](w): +27 (0)18 299 4045

Once the submitted article has undergone peer review, the author will be contacted by Dr. Santana to confirm whether or not the submission has been accepted for publication and the author will be given instructions via e-mail on how to continue the submission process.

Note: In the case where the article has been accepted the author will then be asked to convert the article into LaTeX format using the South African Statistical Journal’s template which is available on the website: http://www.sastat.org.za/journal/guidelines (the editorial staff for the proceedings will not take any responsibility for this task). g

SASA 2013

Proceedings – peer-reviewed papers




http://www.sastat.org.za/journal/guidelines

http://www.sastat.org.za/journal/guidelines


News from the Education Committee

This is a reminder of the 2013 SASA Post Graduate Paper Competition, which is open to all students enrolled for Masters or PhD’s in Statistics at South

African tertiary institutions. Both full and part-time students are eligible.

A maximum of five papers may be submitted by a tertiary institution (merged institutions may only submit five papers in total). A title and 1 page abstract along with the entry form should be submitted by 18th June 2013 by the HOD (or HOD nominated representative) of the university, with the full paper submitted by 18th July 2013. The full paper should be submitted electronically using PDF format. Please submit two PDF format copies

of the full paper, one copy should NOT show the student’s name and affiliation.

For more detailed information, please visit the SASA website at http://www.sastat.org.za.

Note: The submissions are not restricted to the thesis work of the candidates and should show an application of material presented.

I am looking forward to receiving your University’s Post Graduate Papers!

Enquiries: Verena NolanE-mail: [email protected]: (016) 950 9635 Fax: 086 614 1851 g

This year Charles Herbert (Stellenbosch University) and Megandree Govinder (University of KwaZulu-Natal) received scholarships for

outstanding academic achievement in statistics at an undergraduate level. Each provided some comments on their experience of university life and statistics in particular.

Charles HerbertThis year was quite a step up from second year. It required me to think in more depth and apply [statistics] in ways that are not always clear. So far, I am enjoying the estimation section the most. We have mostly only touched on the theoretical aspects of it, without much application, so I

look forward to exploring the topic. I have learnt a whole lot more this year and started to apply my mind to the work. My results so far are better than previous years. Since my stream is actuarial science, I enjoy applying the statistics in my actuarial work. My future plans are still set on becoming an actuary, but I have a growing interest in statistics and I still keep that option open.

Megandree Govinder

When I first came to University, there were so many options to choose from. It was so overwhelming, because you don’t want to pursue a career in something you’re not passionate about. So I ended up doing a variety of them.

I’m currently doing a BSc majoring in applied mathematics, statistics and economics. But with the passion I have for Stats, and our amazing academic team at UKZN, there is no doubt I’m heading in that direction. I plan on doing honours in Statistics next year, and if everything goes as planned, you’ll be looking at Dr. M Govinder in a few years time. But plans do change and with Stats, the possibilities are endless.

Thank you to SASA for the prestigious award and I definitely look forward to working with you in the near future. g

2013 SASA Post Graduate Paper Competition, sponsored by Stats SA

Feedback from Scholarship Recipients



Tribute

The South African Statistical Association suffered a sad loss early in 2012 when the typesetter of our journal, the South African Statistical Journal,

passed away very suddenly.

Edna Cilliers was born in Cullinan, east of Pretoria, on 21 September 1936. She matriculated in 1954 at Michael BrinkHoёrskoolinPretoriaandqualifiedasatypist.Shemarried Danie Schultz, who later became Professor of Statistics at Unisa, and they had three sons, Herman, André and Gerhard.

Between 1966 and 1993 she typed for various departments at the University of South Africa (Unisa) including Nursing Science, Computer Science, Quantitative Management and, notably, Statistics. In the Department of statistics she graduated from old style typewriters to IBM golf ball typewriters and then to computers where she worked successively (and successfully) with WordPerfect, Word, T3, LaTex and Scientific Workplace. She made a tremendous effort to ensure the high technical quality of the study material and examination papers produced by the Department. She was never satisfied until she had fully explored the capabilities of the equipment or computer program. She was always willing to train the other typists and the academics to master the technology.

Edna’s name will be found in the acknowledgements of scores of theses and dissertation which she had typed, a valuable contribution by any measure.

While Edna was still working at Unisa, she was asked to typeset the South African Statistical Journal (SASJ). This she continued to do after resigning from Unisa. There were always new challenges such as various versions of Windows producing different end products,

but no challenge was too great for her to overcome. The last article she typed was submitted to the editor less than a week before she suddenly succumbed to a heart attack.

While their children were in school she took a keen interest in the affairs of the school and in particular in the Voortrekker Movement, the Afrikaans equivalent of Boy Scouts and Girl Scouts. She was active in the Vroue Landbou-unie (Women’s Agricultural Union). She was also a member of the Gideons Auxiliaries.

Edna and Danie had their DNA tested, and this led to a whole new interest. In 2011 she presented a talk at the Mitrochondrial Society of South Africa, and the newsletter of that society had this to report:

Edna Schultz. Another saga of dedicated research unfolded when Edna addressed us. Edna explained that it was relatively easy to research her paternal line and there discovered that she is a descendant of the Voortrekker leader Sarel Cilliers and that she was directly related to the Van der Merwes of Boplaas, Boerneef’s family in the Koue Bokkeveld. Edna also had her DNS tested when the results came filed in a cupboard! After some time her interest in the mtDNA was rekindled and she determined that her maternal forbears come from the Ural Mountains. This was strange seeing that her previous research indicated that she is of French stock. Nevertheless determined as she is, she started researching her maternal line and she progressed with this line up to Claudine Cloy born 1690. Here she learned that Claudine Cloy was born ca 1690 in Italy, nearer the Ural Mountains! It is Edna’s objective to trace this line as far as possible.

Edna Schultz was a truly remarkable woman in her quiet and unassuming way. g

Francois Steffens

Tribute to Edna Schultz (1936-2012)

Typesetter par excellence

“Edna Schultz was a truly remarkable woman in her quiet and unassuming way.”

Edna Schultz


Nominasies vir die 2014 SASV Uitvoerende KomiteeNominations for the 2014 SASA Executive Committee

• Nominasies vir die ampte van Vise-president en Sekretaris word verlang. / Nominations are called for the positions of Vice-president, and Secretary.

• Voltooide vorms moet die Sekretaris voor 31 Augustus 2013 bereik. / Completed forms must reach the Secretary before 31 August 2013.

• Elke nominasie moet deur twee stemgeregtigde lede onderteken word en die genomineerde moet ’n stemgeregtigde lid van die Vereniging wees. / Each nomination must be signed by two enfranchised members and the nominee must be an enfranchised member of the Association.

• Nominasies vir Vise-president moet ’n kort CV (50 woorde) insluit. / Nominations for Vice-president must be accompanied by a short CV (50 words).

ADRES ADDRESS Die Sekretaris: SASV The Secretary: SASA Inger Fabris-Rotelli Inger Fabris-Rotelli Departement Statistiek Department of Statistics Kantoor IT 6-25, Office IT 6-25 Universiteit van Pretoria University of Pretoria Hatfield, 0083 Hatfield, 0083 Faks: (012) 420 5185 Fax: (012) 420 5185 [email protected] [email protected]

Ons, die ondergetekendes, nomineer / We, the undersigned, nominate

vir die UK van die SA Statistiese Vereniging vir 2014 / on the EC of the SA Statistical Association for 2014.

Naam / Name Handtekening / Signature Datum / Date

1 .................................................................................................................................... ............................................................................................................. ..................................................

2 .................................................................................................................................... ............................................................................................................. ..................................................

Genomineerde se handtekening / Nominee’s signature. ..................................................................................................................................................................................

(*) ’n Nominasie vir Vise-president moet ’n kort CV vergesel / A nomination for Vice-president must be accompanied by a short CV

Genomineerde se naam / Nominee’s name vir die ampte van / for the position of

(*) Vise-president / Vice-president

Sekretaris/Secretary


Promoting a united practicing and collaborativeenvironment for the statistical sciences

Hosted by the Eskom Research Testing and

Demonstration (RT&D)

The Board of ICCSSA would like to invite you to the 2nd ICCSSA

Convention, to be held as follow:

19-21 June 2013Eskom Academy of Learning, Midrand

PRESENTING RELIABILITY WORKSHOPBY

PROF NOZER SINGPURWALLANozer D. Singpurwalla is Professor of Statistics and Distinguished Research,

Professorat the George Washington University in Washington, D.C. He has been a Visiting Professor at Carnegie-Mellon University, Stanford University, the University of Florida at Tallahassee, the

University of California at Berkeley, the Santa Fe Institute and Oxford University (UK).

Contact DetailsTel:0116295469Cell:0782648280

E-mail: [email protected]

ICCSSA News


Early in 2009, a group of practicing statisticians spearheaded by Mr H Gabriels (Stats Council),

Dr V Micali (Eskom) and Dr H van Rooy (then SASA President) met in Johannesburg to form an organisation that can promote the interests of practising statisticians. At this meeting a Task Team was elected. Mr. Howard Gabriels was appointed as the chairperson and Dr. Vince Micali the deputy chairperson of the Task Team. The Task Team embarked on an extensive work program to establish the foundation for the establishment of the Institute of Certificated and Chartered Statisticians of South Africa (ICCSSA).

After much deliberation, it was decided that ICCSSA will seek to become an associated society of the South African Statistical Association (SASA). After a formal request, SASA invited the chairperson of the Task Team to serve on the Executive Committee in an ex-officio capacity. The Task Team made extensive comments on the amendments of the SASA constitution, in particular, to provide for the establishment of an Associated Society. The SASA constitution was debated at the SASA AGM in November 2010 and

in February 2011 the constitution was accepted.

The Task team also held consultations with a representative of SACNASP – the South African Council for Natural Scientific Professions – a statutory body that is responsible for the registration of natural scientists. The Task Team, based on the discussions, recommended that SASA register as a voluntary association in terms of the rules of SACNASP. This is an important step to ensure the professional status of practising statisticians.

The essence of ICCSSA’s mission is to promote the professional status of practising statisticians as Chartered and Certificated Members, in both the private and the public sector. This is a major task as statisticians in their professional capacity are required to prepare reports and give advice, both of which can have a significant impact on the decisions taken by corporations. ICCSSA aims to become the preeminent forum for the exchange of knowledge between members in the statistical field and to influence policy in all spheres of statistics and the application of statistics in business and public sector institutions.

ICCSSA also recognises that the Chartered Statisticians and the Certificated Statisticians need to continuously develop themselves through various activities of professional development. The professional status in an industry is underpinned by a body of scientific knowledge and the application of that knowledge in the real world of work. The Chartered Statistician and the Certificated Statistician sets an industry standard of professional competence gained through formal study and informal learning processes. ICCSSA defines Continuous Professional Development as the systematic improvement and maintenance of knowledge and skills, as well as the development of personal qualities of the Chartered Statistician and Certificated Statistician necessary for the execution of the professional and technical duties throughout their careers in Statistics.

The enablement to share practical experiences and challenges reflected in the practical environment, is manifested at the ICCSSA Convention held annually in various South African venues. In 2012 it was held for the 1st time in Cape Town, this year it will take place in Johannesburg and in 2014 it is expected in Bloemfontein. g

ICCSSA is the essential body for practicing Statisticians, establishing a united and collaborative environment by recognising, empowering, providing true representation and continuously improving the competency

of Statisticians with the aim to be a respected, professional and well governed organisation.

Ms Y ChhanaDirector

Prof J GalpinDirector

Prof I LitvineDirector

Prof D NorthDirector (D)

Dr R BeckerDirector

Mr H GabrielsDirector (D)

Dr R CoetzerDirector

Dr V MicaliChairman

Dr P DebbaCEO

Ms V LitvineFD

Ms D Ratlhagana Secretariat

Ms L Morey Admin

The ICCSSA Vision with its Board of Directors

Institute of Certificated and Chartered Statisticians of South Africa


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