CLIMATE EMERGENCY!

Edward Mazria Architecture 2030

NewBuildings

ExistingBuildings

Materials,Construction

& Infrastructure

223 billion m2Today, global building floor area is about

Source: Global Status Report, GABC

230 billion m2By 2060, global building floor area will increase by

or double the current worldwide building stock.

Source: Global Status Report, GABC

About 40% of this construction is expected totake place over the next 15 years.

December 12, 2015

reach ZERO emissions by 2050

Peak CO2 emissions by 2020,reduce emissions about 50% by 2030, and

1950 0

1oC

2000 2200 2150 2100 2050

3oC

2oC

8oC

7oC

6oC

5oC

4oC

RCP2.6 (1.50C)0.53 trillion tons carbonzero CO2 emissions ~2050

Incr

ease

in A

vera

ge G

loba

l Tem

pera

ture

Global Temperature Projections for various RCP ScenariosSource: Architecture 2030; Adapted from IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, 2013

Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), temperature projections for SRES scenarios and the RCPs.

RCP6.0emissions peak 20801.6 trillion tons carbon

RCP4.5emissions peak 2040-501.3 trillion tons carbon

RCP8.5 Business-as-usual2.2 trillion tons carbon

2018

2015 20

2020 2030 2025

30

60

50

40

GtC

O2e

Global GHG Emissions Under Different ScenariosSource: UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2018

Current Commitments

To reach < 1.50C by 210024 GtCO2e(range 22 - 30)

201853.5 GtCO2e

~50%

Africa

18.0

57.2India

15.8Southeast Asia15.6

North America

38.1Western

Europe 29.8Eurasia

9.8

JapanKorea 9.8

AustraliaNew Zealand 2.1

Latin AmericaCaribbean

19.3

MiddleEast 8.0

Source: Architecture 2030 Global ABC, Global Status Report 2016

Existing Building Floor Area (2015, Billion m2)

China

BUILDING STOCK

Projected Building Floor Area Growth 2016 to 2030 (Billion m2)Source: Global ABC, Global Status Report 2016

Africa

12.4

China

22.1India16.3 Southeast

Asia8.2

North America

9.0Western

Europe 4.5

Eurasia3.3

JapanKorea 1.1

AustraliaNew Zealand 1.1

Latin AmericaCaribbean

9.8

MiddleEast 4.7

BUILDING GROWTH

Africa

25.6

China

5.3India

25.5 Southeast Asia8.4

North America

9.8Western

Europe 2.6

Eurasia1.8

JapanKorea 0.2

AustraliaNew Zealand 0.7

Latin AmericaCaribbean

14.0

MiddleEast 5.6

Projected Building Floor Area Growth 2030 to 2050 (Billion m2)Source: Global ABC, Global Status Report 2016

BUILDING GROWTH

Source: Architecture 2030, Adapted from IEA – Tracking Clean Energy Progress 2017

Building Energy Codes

or codes

U.S. & International ZERO Code Standards

Global CO2 Emissions by Sector

(incl. building finishes, glass, equipment, and

plastics, rubber, paper, other)

Concrete, Steel& Aluminum

21.2%

Other6%

Industry21.8%

Transportation23%

Source: 2018 Global ABC Report; IEA

(incl. building structure, substructure,infrastructure, auto, other)

BuildingOperations

28%

China

United States

Japan

Top Five Countries (Industry energy consumption by sub-sector)

Russia

India

Iron & steelChemical &

petrochemicalNon-metallic minerals

(cement, glass, gypsum, etc.) Other

1,000 (Mtoe)800200 400 6000

Source: IEA, Key World Energy Statistics 2018

CarbonPositive 19‘

CARBONPOSITIVE

‘ 19

•CONFERENCE& EXPOLos Angeles, CAMarch 2-4, 2020

SUMMIT Chicago, IL

September 27-28, 2019

LOS ANGELES, MARCH 2 - 4, 2020

The world will construct a staggering 230 billion square meters (2.5 trillion square feet) of buildings over the next four decades, an area equal to the current worldwide building stock or the equivalent of

adding an entire New York City to the planet every 34 days for the next 40 years.

The CarbonPositive’20 Conference and Expo examines the built environment through this new lens, accounting for the invisible aspects of:

The Conference will explore designing cities and buildings that use sustainable resources, generate a surplus of renewable energy, and convert atmospheric carbon into durable materials and products. By presenting leading-edge knowledge and breakthrough technologies, strategies, planning and design tools, and bringing together key policymakers, planners, architects, engineers, product manufacturers,

and innovators, we can make carbon positive built environments a reality. CarbonPositive’20 will put you directly in the driver’s seat to accelerate our transition to a carbon positive future.

Join leaders and innovators from around the world at this three-day conference and leave with the passion and capacity to shape the future!

CarbonPositive’20 International Conference and Expo presented by

Accelerating the transition to carbon positive cities, infrastructure, buildings, and materials.

SAVE THE DATE Registration will open soon and announced in an upcoming Architecture 2030 ENews Bulletin

• explosive urbanization• embodied and operational carbon

• infrastructure and construction • land use and deforestation

AIA LFRT

Bronx

Queens

Brooklyn

Staten Island

Manhattan

2.7% of NYC’s buildings (> 50k sf) produce 48% of building sector GHG emissions

New York City

Seattle, WA

2.8% of Seattle buildings are >20k sf, and they produce 45% of building sector GHG emissions

Less than 1% of Long Beach buildings (> 10k sf) produce 40% of building sector GHG emissionsLong Beach, CA

San Francisco, CA

Los Angeles

Minneapolis, MN

Philadelphia, PA

PORTLAND, OR

0-20k ft2 20-200k+ ft2 50-75k ft2 75-100k ft2100-200k

ft2 200k+ ft2

185,902 3,529 590 236 381 282

PORTLAND, ORBuilding Stock

Commercial

Multifamily

Building Types (Floor Area)

Building Type by Size and Floor Area

Mill

ion

ft2

COMMERCIAL272.6 Mft2

40%

SINGLE FAMILY276.4 Mft2

40%

MULTIFAMILY140.7 Mft2

20% Size

Commercial

Multifamily

0-20k ft2 20-200k+ ft2 50-75k ft2 75-100k ft2100-200k

ft2 200k+ ft2

185,902 3,529 590 236 381 282

PORTLAND, ORBuilding Stock

Over 20k ft23,529 Buildings

1.9%Big Buildings

Under 20k ft2185,902 Buildings

98.1%Small Buildings

Buildings by Size(Number)

Commercial

Multifamily

SizeNumber

Building Type by Size, Floor Area and

Mill

ion

ft2

Number of Buildings

41%of the total building floor area.

1.9% (Big Buildings)of the total number of buildings in Portland, or 3,529 buildings, are greater than 20,000 ft2 and contain

PORTLAND, ORBuilding Stock

0-20k ft2 20-200k+ ft2 50-75k ft2 75-100k ft2100-200k

ft2 200k+ ft2

185,902 3,529 590 236 381 282

PORTLAND, ORBuilding Stock

Over 20k ft23,529 Buildings

1.9%Big Buildings

Under 20k ft2185,902 Buildings

98.1%Small Buildings

Buildings by Size(Number)

SizeNumber

Commercial

Multifamily

Building Type by Size / Number(Energy Consumption)

Trill

ion

Btu/

yr

0-20k ft2 20-200k+ ft2 50-75k ft2 75-100k ft2100-200k

ft2 200k+ ft2

185,902 3,529 590 236 381 282

PORTLAND, ORBuilding Stock

Over 20k ft23,529 Buildings

1.9%Big Buildings

Under 20k ft2185,902 Buildings

98.1%Small Buildings

Buildings by Size(Number)

SizeNumber

Building Types by Size / Number(GHG Emissions)

Thou

sand

MT

CO

2e

1.9% (Big Buildings) of the total number of buildings in Portland are greater than 20,000 ft2and are responsible for

50.2%of total citywide building sector GHG emissions.

Big Buildings Policy Small Buildings Policy • Require energy upgrade by 2030

(efficiency, renewables, and/or electrification)

• Require zero emissions by 2050

Integrate an energy upgrade atbuilding intervention points: • seismic or flooding resilience upgrade• zoning or use change (within 2 years)• point-of-sale (within 2 years)• point-of-renovation

Provide incentives (zero emissions & early adopters) • fast track permitting• low interest loans• tax abatements, rebates

Policies for Existing Buildings

• Electric grid decarbonization coupled with building electrification

PROBLEM

Each team of 4 or 5 participants:• Identify a city and gather data about its building stock

(gather data on building type and size, energy consumption, fuel type, and emissions)

• Analyze data and groupings, and develop ZERO BY 2050 emissions policy strategies.

• Group data by building type, floor area, number of buildings, energy consumption, fuel type, and emissions.

(single family, multi-family, commercial, etc.)