SAN PABLO AVENUE

COMMERCIAL DISTRICTECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT WORK SESSION, DECEMBER 13, 2016

AGENDA

Study Area and Methodology

Historic Context

Demographic Composition

Urban Form

Commercial Nodes

Business and Employment Statistics

Real Estate Trends

Community Assets and Initiatives

Challenges & Opportunities

Q&A2

STUDY AREA AND METHODOLOGY

Image source: ESRI Business Analyst. The highlighted region represents the area

within a quarter mile of the five nodes on the San Pablo commercial corridor.

3

STUDY AREA AND METHODOLOGY

4

Literature Review

Data Sources

Demographics:

Census Bureau, ESRI

Business Analyst

Businesses &

Employment: EDD,

MuniServices, OED

Stakeholder

Interviews

City Staff Focus

Group

Note: The San Pablo commercial

corridor business data presented is

limited to San Pablo Avenue addresses

in Berkeley.

HISTORIC CONTEXT

Sign at University and San Pablo. Photo: Berkeley Historical Society

Key Route Tracks, San Pablo at University. Photo: Quirky Berkeley

Berthelsen Motorcycle Garage at 2032 San Pablo, c1915.

Photo: Digital Public Library of America

5

Former Rivoli Theater at University and San Pablo.

Photo: Berkeley Architectural Heritage Association

PAST PLANS AND INITIATIVES

6

West Berkeley Plan (1993)

Goals for San Pablo included fostering neighborhood retail development while protecting

manufacturing businesses; improved transit connections; and improving environmental

quality

San Pablo Revitalization Program (1998)

Façade improvement grants

Enforcement of city codes on blighted sites; development of vacant and underutilized sites

San Pablo Public Improvement Plan (2003)

Identified community concerns about San Pablo Avenue conditions

Focused on pedestrian appeal, safety, and accessibility

Resulted in creation of unofficial design guidelines for the corridor, still in use

“Plan Bay Area” (MTC/ABAG) (2013)

San Pablo Avenue is designated as a Priority Development Area (PDA); future housing

growth and transit resources will be targeted for San Pablo

DEMOGRAPHIC COMPOSITION

SAN PABLO AREA DEMOGRAPHICS

Total population: 14,708 (12.7% of Berkeley’s population)

7,180 Housing Units (14.6% of Berkeley housing stock)

Renters: 42.6%

Homeowners: 57.4%

Median income: $66,151

Median income citywide: $65,283

Unemployment Rate: 7.13%

Workforce Participation (age 16+): 69.3%

Source: US Census Bureau. Median income estimates reflect weighted average of median incomes for eight Census tracts bordering San Pablo

Ave, American Community Survey, 2010-2014 Rolling Sample. All other figures are for the area highlighted on the map on Slide 2, accessed via

ESRI Business Analyst.

8

RESIDENTS BY AGE GROUP, SAN PABLO AVENUE-ADJACENT TRACTS

AND CITY OF BERKELEY, 2010-2014 ESTIMATES

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

< 5 5-17 18-24 25-44 45-65 65+

Perc

en

t o

f P

op

ula

tio

n

Age Group

San Pablo Ave City of Berkeley9

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Census Tract 4240.02

Census Tract 4233

Census Tract 4220

Census Tract 4232

Census Tract 4231

Census Tract 4222

Census Tract 4221

Census Tract 4219

Weighted average of alltracts

32.7%

33.2%

54.6%

38.5%

54.8%

62.1%

51.7%

64.4%

49.6%

20.5%

17.9%

17.6%

35.9%

7.2%

11.0%

21.8%

4.6%

15.7%

38.1%

34.1%

17.8%

13.9%

11.4%

6.1%

8.9%

7.8%

16.8%

5.5%

11.0%

6.5%

6.1%

19.0%

15.1%

12.4%

17.6%

12.6%

3.3%

3.8%

3.4%

5.7%

7.6%

5.7%

5.3%

5.6%

5.2% White

Hispanic/Latino

Black

Asian

Bi/Multiracial,Native American,Hawaiian/PacificIslander, or Other

RACIAL/ETHNIC COMPOSITION,

SAN PABLO-ADJACENT CENSUS TRACTS

Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2010-2014 Rolling Sample10

North (Albany Border)

South (Oakland Border)

CHANGE IN POPULATION, RACIAL GROUPS, AND INCOME, SAN

PABLO-ADJACENT CENSUS TRACTS, 2000-2014

4.6%

36.3%

-27.3%

17.3%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

San Pablo Corridor Total(Population)

Whites (Population) Non-Whites (Population) Income

Note: Income is in 2014 Dollars. Source: American Community Survey (ACS) Estimates 2010-2014; 2000 Census

11

URBAN FORM

Top: Biker

crosses at San

Pablo and

Virginia (facing

northwest)

Left: Auto-

Oriented Uses

at San Pablo

and Virginia

(facing

southwest)

URBAN FORM

13

URBAN FORM

Above: Intersection of San Pablo and Ashby, facing

southwest

Right: Shops near the intersection of San Pablo and

Dwight, a pedestrian-friendly retail/restaurant segment

14

URBAN FORM

Historic Heinz Building, San Pablo and Ashby

15

URBAN FORM

Left: Curb cuts into parking lots

interrupt the pedestrian environment

Top: Parking lots entrances on NE

side of University and San Pablo

16

COMMERCIAL NODES

Ashby

Dwight

University

Cedar

Gilman

San Pablo Avenue

17

GILMAN AND SAN PABLO

Note: Parking lots are highly visible from node. Image Source: Google Maps

18

CEDAR AND SAN PABLO

Aerial image Source: Google Maps

19

UNIVERSITY AND SAN PABLO

Note: large number and coverage of surface parking lots. Image Source: (left and above) Google Maps

20

DWIGHT AND SAN PABLO

21

ASHBY AND SAN PABLO

Note: Surface parking fully obscured from street.

Image Source: Google Maps

22

BUSINESS AND EMPLOYMENT

STATISTICS

GROUND FLOOR COMMERCIAL VACANCY RATE

(BY SQUARE FOOTAGE), 2008-2016

6.0%6.6%

7.9%

5.9%

7.3%

5.9%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

2008 2010 2012 2014 2015 2016

Source: Vacancy Database, Office of Economic Development, City of Berkeley

24

GROUND FLOOR COMMERCIAL OCCUPANCY

BY CATEGORY, BY SQUARE FOOTAGE, Q3 2016

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Citywide San Pablo

Vacant

Trade Services

Retail

Public and Nonprofit

Entities

Personal Services

Office / Other Non-Retail

Food & Beverage Services

Business / Professional

Services

Arts, Entertainment &

Recreation

40%

7%

7.5%

13%

30%

21%

5.9%

8%

14%

6%10%

19%

25

SALES TAX PERFORMANCE OVER TIME, SAN

PABLO AND CITYWIDE, 2007-2016

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Berkeley San Pablo

Source: MuniServices, OED Analysis

26

Sale

s Tax

Reve

nue, %

Chan

ge S

ince

2007

SALES TAX REVENUE BY CATEGORY, SAN PABLO

AND CITYWIDE, 2015 Q2 – 2016 Q1

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Berkeley San Pablo

BUSINESS TO

BUSINESS

CONSTRUCTION

MISCELLANEOUS

FOOD PRODUCTS

GENERAL RETAIL

TRANSPORTATION

Source: MuniServices, OED Analysis

27

BUSINESS CLUSTERS: AUTO-ORIENTED BUSINESSES

28

BUSINESS CLUSTERS: HOME FURNISHINGS

29

ANNUAL SALES TAX PERFORMANCE OVER TIME, HOME IMPROVEMENT AND

AUTO-ORIENTED BUSINESS CLUSTERS, 2007-2016

$-

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Home Improvement Auto-Oriented

Source: MuniServices, OED Analysis

30

WAGES AND AVERAGE EMPLOYMENT, BUSINESSES

WITH SAN PABLO ADDRESSES, 2011 Q4-2015 Q4

$-

$5,000,000

$10,000,000

$15,000,000

$20,000,000

$25,000,000

$30,000,000

$35,000,000

$40,000,000

1,750

1,800

1,850

1,900

1,950

2,000

2,050

2,100

2,150

2,200

2,250

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Avera

ge n

um

ber

of

em

plo

yees

Q4 average

employment

Q4 Wages

Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), Bureau of Labor Statistics

31

REAL ESTATE TRENDS

WEST BERKELEY MEDIAN SALES PRICE OVER TIME,

SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES, 2010 Q1-2016 Q3

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

$900,000

$1,000,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Single-Family Home

Note: Figures are for homes west of Sacramento Street in Berkeley. The yearly medians represent the average values of the median

figures for each quarter. Source: Red Oak Realty, Multiple Listing Service (MLS Data), October 2016.

33

Media

n S

ales

Pri

ce

SAN PABLO AVENUE-ADJACENT HOUSING PROJECTS, RECENTLY

CONSTRUCTED AND IN DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE

Source: City of Berkeley Office of Economic Development 34

KEY TAKEAWAYS

COMMUNITY ASSETS AND INITIATIVES

36

San Pablo sits at intersection of

production and commerce; on-

site production helps drive

retail

Thriving Arts Community

Business Groups

Concentrations of ethnic

grocers, retailers, and

restaurants

Pending pedestrian and

transportation investments

Archana Horsting, Executive Director of the

Kala Institute

Christina Rybczynski and Lawrence Grown,

Metro Lighting, West Berkeley Design Loop

COMMUNITY ASSETS AND INITIATIVES:

PRODUCTION AND COMMERCE

Home furnishings manufacturing

Artisanal production

37

Berkeley Potters’ Studio

On-site production at Metro Lighting

COMMUNITY ASSETS AND INITIATIVES:

THRIVING ARTS COMMUNITY

38

Source: 2008 Field Survey, Civic Arts Commission, Office of

Economic Development

Installations from Kala Art Institute’s Print Public Initiative

COMMUNITY ASSETS AND INITIATIVES:

BUSINESS GROUPS

39

COMMUNITY ASSETS AND INITIATIVES:

ETHNIC GROCERS, RETAILERS, AND RESTAURANTS

40

Gaumenkitzel Chef and owner Anja

Voth. Photo: Suzanna Mannion

Mural at Mi Tierra Foods; Manager Ambrocio

Hernandez (right), Photo: Berkeleyside

COMMUNITY ASSETS AND INITIATIVES:

PENDING TRANSPORTATION INVESTMENTS

41

Alameda County Transportation Commission (Alameda CTC) has designated San

Pablo Ave as a priority corridor

Rapid bus upgrades

Possible bus rapid transit corridor in long term

Planning to begin in Spring 2017

I-80 Gilman Interchange project

Will improve vehicle, pedestrian, and bicycle operations at I-80 and Gilman

Construction anticipated in FY 2020-2021

AC Transit plans to expand West Berkeley bus service beginning March 2017

CoB has applied for $8.6 million for Alameda CTC Transit Signal Priority

program

Extends green lights when buses are detected approaching

CHALLENGES

Loss of racial and economic diversity

Competing local and regional interests for transportation and land use

Existing cluster of auto-oriented businesses is threatened by competing

uses

42

OPPORTUNITIES

Leverage San Pablo’s development potential to preserve and increase

housing affordability.

Engage with regional transportation agencies and private sector leaders

to expand sustainable, multi-modal transportation.

Pursue grant funding to conduct comprehensive land use planning for

the San Pablo Priority Development Area.

Leverage planned development and regional transportation investments

to enhance the pedestrian environment.

Promote walkable, active frontages, especially at the Nodes.

Support existing and emerging business associations and industry

clusters.43

Q & A