San Bernardino County Mountain Region Population Growth Monitoring & Road Capacity Study

Presented to

2012 ITE Western District Annual Meeting, Santa Barbara, CAJune 25th, 2012

Paper by:

Noel Casil, PE (Presenter)Neelam Sharma, TE

Overview of Project Study Area

Lytle Creek

Bear ValleyCrest

Forest

Lake Arrowhead

Hilltop

Oak Glen

Wrightwood

San Bernardino County Mountain Region

URS Project Team

Purpose and Need

A need to implement certain SB County 2007 GP goals relative to the evacuation of the Mountain Communities during emergencies.

Help the County determine appropriate densities for the development of the Mountain Planning Region given the limitations for emergency evacuation.

Study, analyze and provide recommendations for 7 issue areas.

Components of the Study

Current and Projected

Population

Transportation and

Circulation System

Mountain Area Safety

Taskforce (MAST)

Evacuation Routes

Traffic Assessment

Population Report

Conclusions/

Recommendations

Input Data

• Maps

• Survey

• Counts

• Planning Data

Study Results

• Land Use Summary

• Emergency Evacuation

Traffic Data

• Facility Review

• Capacities

Population Data

• Existing

• Projected

Traffic Analysis

• Speed

• Time

• Tiering

Mountain Region

• Future growth

• Densities

• Consistency w/ Plan

Recent History of the Mountain Region

Grand Prix Fire, 2003 Old Fire, 2003

Key Transportation Facilities

Traffic Assessment Challenge

Extensive Study Area

3 Analysis Scenarios

7 Unique Communities

Meet Project Schedule and Allocated CostNot reliant on

esoteric Modeling packages

Meet client’s expectations

A Simple Approach

Step 1 - Define Evacuation Routes and Properties

Step 1Step 2

Step 2 - Gather and Translate Population Data

Step 3

Step 3 – Baseline Conditions (LOS from Florida Tables)

Step 4

Step 4 – Evacuation Analysis (Speed from HCS)

Step 5

Step 5 – Evacuation Tiers used to minimize gridlock

Key Analysis Assumptions

Reasonable segment travel time for baseline was based on distance and posted speed limit relationship

HCS was used to determine analysis scenario speed using vehicle demand

“Tiering” of evacuating vehicles was developed to attain progression through the emergency routes

Sample Results: Hilltop 2030Hilltop

Evac Route

Distance (mls)1

Evac Route Travel Time

(mins)2

SR330 SR18

Evacuation Routes Segment Evac

VehiclesEvac Speed (mph)

Evac Time

(mins)Evac

VehiclesEvac

Speed (mph)

Evac Time

(mins)

SR330 SR18 to Highland 14.3 16 3,096 19.6 44 0 - -

SR18

SR138 to 49th Street 2.1 3 0 - - 3,096 - -*

SR138 to SR189 2.94 4 0 - - 3,096 9.5 19

SR189 to Daley Canyon 2.7 4 0 - - 3,096 9.6 17

Daley Canyon to SR 173 1.3 2 0 - - 3,096 9.9 8

SR173 to Kuffle 1.1 1 0 - - 3,096 10 7

Kuffle to SR330 5.8 6 1,393 38.6 9 3,096 19.3 18

SR330 to Green Valley 2.9 4 619 32.2 5 619 32.2 5

Green Valley to SR38 9.85 15 0 - - 0 - -

Green Valley Lake Road North of SR18 4.5 11 619 19.8 14 619 19.8 14

Live Oak Drive SR18 to SR330 1.6 4 310 23.4 4 310 23.4 4

Total Evacuation Time (longest segment) ~ 72 minutes *

* HCS could not output results due the heavy demand. Therefore, total travel time can not be listed.

Sample Results: Hilltop “Tiers”Hilltop

Evac Route

Distance (mls)1

Evac Route Travel Time

(mins)2

SR330 SR18

Evacuation Routes Segment Evac

VehiclesEvac Speed (mph)

Evac Time

(mins)Evac

VehiclesEvac

Speed (mph)

Evac Time

(mins)

SR330 SR18 to Highland 14.3 16 2700 25 34 0 - -

SR18

SR138 to 49th Street 2.1 3 0 - - 1649 53.2 2

SR138 to SR189 2.94 4 0 - - 1649 25 7

SR189 to Daley Canyon 2.7 4 0 - - 1649 25 6

Daley Canyon to SR 173 1.3 2 0 - - 1649 25 3

SR173 to Kuffle 1.1 1 0 - - 1649 25 3

Kuffle to SR330 5.8 6 1215 41.5 8 1649 35 10

SR330 to Green Valley 2.9 4 540 26.2 7 330 40 4

Green Valley to SR38 9.85 15 0 - - 0 - -

Green Valley Lake Road North of SR18 4.5 11 540 25 11 330 25 11

Live Oak Drive SR18 to SR330 1.6 4 270 25 4 165 25 4

Total Evacuation Time (longest segment) ~ 60 minutes ~ 46 minutes

For both SR330 and SR18, two tiers would be required to evacuate the Projected 2030 Population. Total time required would be approximately two hours.

Specific Evacuation plans would be determined by the Emergency Response Teams.

Take aways from the study

The high quality of life in the Mountain Region should not be degraded by growth

Given reasonable amount of time orderly evacuation can be accomplished

Each potential emergency is unique and key field decisions and tactics is to be decided by the Incident Commander

Thank You for Your time