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SAMSUNG MARKET STRATEGY Samsung 2015년 주식시장 전망 …
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2014. 11. 17 Samsung Securities (Korea) www.samsungpop.com 본 조사자료는 당사의 저작물로서 모든 저작권은 당사에게 있습니다. 본 조사자료는 당사의 동의없이 어떠한 경우에 도 어떠한 형태로든 복제, 배포, 전송, 변경, 대여할 수 없 습니다. 본 조사자료에 수록된 내용은 당사 리서치센터가 신뢰할 만한 자료 및 정보로부터 얻어진 것이나, 당사는 그 정확성이나 완전성을 보장할 수 없습니다. 따라서 어떠 한 경우에도 본 자료는 고객의 주식투자의 결과에 대한 법 적 책임소재에 대한 증빙자료로 사용될 수 없습니다. 본 자료에는 외부의 부당한 압력이나 간섭없이 애널리스트 의 의견이 정확하게 반영되었습니다. SAMSUNG MARKET STRATEGY 2015년 주식시장 전망 Blended trend Samsung Market Strategy Chief Strategist 유승민 [email protected] 02 2020 7024 Strategists 전종규 [email protected] 02 2020 7054 손휘원 [email protected] 02 2020 7842 Research Associate 최제환 [email protected] 02 2020 7803 Contributors Economist 허진욱 / 이승훈 Analysts 황민성 (IT) 임은영 (자동차,부품) 남옥진 (유통/의류) 장효선 (보험/증권) 윤석모 (건설) 김재우 (은행) 박은경 (운송/생활용품) 양일우 (음식료/레져) 오동환 (인터넷/게임) 실적 reality check와 KOSPI 전망: MSCI Korea의 순이익은 3년이나 계속된 감익추세에서 2014년에 처음으로 벗어날 전망이다. 이러한 흐름은 내년에도 이어질 것으로 예상된다. 보수적으로 보면, 내년 순이익은 전년대비 약 8%(금융업 제외 시 11%) 수준 늘어날 것 으로 추정한다. 다만 고질적인 실적 과대계상에 대한 수정은 2015년에도 불가피해 보인 다. 또한 매출액과 영업이익은 정체되거나 소폭 역성장을 할 가능성이 있다. 지난 2011~14년 사이 KOSPI는 당해 연도 확정 순이익에 대하여 평균적으로 11.3~12.4배 범위에서 pricing됐다. 이를 토대로, 상기한 보수적인 내년 실적 예상치를 적용할 때, 2015년 KOSPI는 1,900~2,250pt 범위에서 등락할 전망이다. 주요 논점과 전략적 판단: '저성장+저인플레이션'의 'deflationary boom' 사이클이 내년에 도 연장될 것이다. 하지만 미국의 정책금리 인상 시점을 전후로 'inflationary boom' 사이 클로 이전된다는 기대가 높아질 수 있다. 때문에 주식시장에서는 기대와 현상이 혼재된 트렌드(Blended trend)가 나타날 것이다. 그러나 실제 변화는 느릴 전망이다. 미국 이외 지역으로 성장과 인플레이션에 대한 신뢰가 강화되어야 새로운 사이클로 본격 진입할 수 있다. 이러한 환경에서 내년에도 선진국 증시 선호가 지속될 것이다. 하지만 미국의 경기 강화와 투자사이클 재개의 수혜를 입는 일부 신흥국은 coupling을 시도할 수 있다. 내부적으로는 2015년에 주택시장 회복이 구체화될 경우, 금융시장에도 중요한 영향을 미칠 것이다. 유동자금이 넘치는 저금리 상황에서 경기회복으로 인한 위험선호도 상승은 수익이 높은 자산으로 allocation을 자극할 것이기 때문이다. 하지만 가계의 실질적인 주 식투자여력은 높지 않다. 주택가격 회복과 더불어 전월세 비용의 안정이 동반되어야 주 식으로 자금 배분이 가능하다. 물론 이와 별개로 정부의 기업관련 규제 및 일련의 제도 시행으로 인한 기업의 배당 확대 가능성은 증시 매력을 높일 수 있다. 섹터 투자전략: 투자자들은 2015년에 섹터 선호의 교체(rotation)이 있을지 고민하고 있 다. 기본 시나리오는 내년 중반까지는 전통적인 성장주보다, 합리적인 수준의 꾸준한 이 익을 내거나 아니면 배당성장이 있는 기업의 선호가 지속된다는 것이다. 그러나 하반기 로 갈 수록 cyclical 등 전통적 성장주들의 선호가 살아날 제한적 '압력'이 있다. 때문에 상반기까지 포트폴리오는 베타 중립적인 편성이 불가피며, 불확실성이 제거된다 고 확인되면 '서서히' 베타를 올리는 대응이 유리할 것이다. 보험, 증권, 건설, 유틸리티 등을 Overweight로, 철강, 운송, 화학, 소프트웨어, 에너지 등은 Underweight를 제시한 다. 자동차와 IT 등 대표 수출주는 아직 Neutral이다. 업종 대표 Top 10 picks는 삼성전자, 현대모비스, 삼성생명, SK텔레콤, 아모레퍼시픽, 삼 성물산, 다음커뮤니케이션, GKL, 현대그린푸드, 경남은행 등이다. 투자환경 변화와 대안적 테마: 2015년에 주목하는 4가지 테마가 있다. 첫째, 기존의 전통 적 배당주가 아닌, 향후 배당 확대 가능성이 유효한 기업들을 찾아야 한다. 둘째 헬스케 어 산업 내 수출비중이 높고 공고한 브랜드가치를 보유한 종목이 관심이다. 셋째, 리모델 링의 B2C 시장이 확대됨에 따라 대형사 위주로 재편 가능성을 주목한다. 넷째, 중국 인 바운드 기업은 지리적 접근성과 브랜드 가치에서 유리한 종목으로 선별이 필요하다. 대안적 테마 관심주는 한국타이어월드와이드, CJ, 현대위아, 메디톡스, 차바이오텍, 뷰윅 스, 일진홀딩스, 한샘, 라이온켐텍, 산성엘엔에스 등이다. 자금흐름: 글로벌 주식시장 자금 흐름은 상반기 변동성 확대, 하반기 본격적 risk-on 양 상을 기대한다. 지역별로 전망해 보면 미국과 아시아를 중심으로 한 선호가 높을 것으로 판단한다. 다만 한국시장에 대한 외국인 수급은 중립적일 것이다. 중국 후강통 및 MSCI 지수 내 중국본토시장(상해A) 편입 여부 등이 변수로 작용할 수 있다. 그러나 국내 수급 은 정책효과와 그리고 저금리 등으로 개선될 전망이다.
Transcript of SAMSUNG MARKET STRATEGY Samsung 2015년 주식시장 전망 …
Microsoft Word - 0900be5c8037a8b4.docxSamsung Securities (Korea)
www.samsungpop.com
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SAMSUNG MARKET STRATEGY
2015
(IT)
(,)
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reality check KOSPI : MSCI Korea 3
2014 . .
, 8%( 11%)
. 2015
. .
2011~14 KOSPI 11.3~12.4
pricing. , ,
2015 KOSPI 1,900~2,250pt .
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(Blended trend) . .
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coupling .
2015 ,
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allocation .
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Top 10 picks , , , SK, ,
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.
, CJ, , , ,
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: , risk-on
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. . MSCI
(A) .
.
2014. 11. 17
Samsung Market Strategy
II-1. 2015 ................................................................ 5
(1) Deflationary boom vs. ............... 5
(2) vs. .......... 7
(3) vs. ............. 10
(4) vs. ............................. 13
III. ............................................14
III-1. Earnings reality ........................................................................ 14
(2) ........................... 17
III-2. Valuation KOSPI .................................................... 21
(2) () ......................................... 22
IV. ..........................................................24
(1) Top down Bottom up ......................... 24
(2) Top 10 picks ................................... 30
V. ...........................................31
V-1. 4 ...................................................... 31
(1) - ........... 32
(2) - .................. 36
(3) () - ...................... 40
(4) 2 - ............................. 42
VI. ................................................................. 44
VI-1. .................................................................................. 44
V-3. ......................................................................... 53
VII. Top picks ............................................................... 56
................................................................ 57
............................................................. 58
................................................................ 59
SK ............................................................... 60
........................................................... 61
................................................................ 62
............................................................. 63
GKL ..................................................................... 64
........................................................... 65
................................................................ 66
I. Executive summary
KOSPI : 2011~14 KOSPI
11.3~12.4 pricing. 4
, 2015 KOSPI 1,900~2,250pt(1,921~2,257pt)
. 2011
. P/E 10.1.
2013 14.1 (1,700~2,400pt).
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IV. p24
V. p31
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VII. Top picks p56
2014. 11. 17
Samsung Market Strategy
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IV. p24
V. p31
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VII. Top picks p56
'deflationary boom'
2014. 11. 17
Samsung Market Strategy
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Total return (%) P/E () P/B () ROE (%) EPS growth (%)
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1.6 8.9 3.8 11.0 0.2 1.4 (0.9) 12.5 (1.6) 9.9 (0.5) (1.9) 3.0
6.3 9.0 4.0 9.2 (0.8) 1.3 (1.0) 14.1 (1.6) 9.9 (0.2) (0.8) 3.4
4.6 22.5 8.6 16.1 0.4 2.5 (0.2) 15.6 (0.9) 14.9 0.0 (0.3) 1.6
1.6 1.6 2.7 10.0 0.3 1.0 (1.2) 10.3 (2.0) 13.9 (2.8) (8.6) 1.3
(2.7) 13.5 12.7 13.4 (0.1) 1.7 (0.1) 12.9 (0.1) 11.8 2.3 4.5 3.4
0.9 27.1 (2.9) 14.6 1.1 3.0 0.1 20.3 (1.7) 12.0 (0.3) (0.6) 2.7
(1.0) 0.5 15.3 15.5 1.1 2.0 0.3 12.7 (0.9) 7.6 (0.8) (2.0) 3.1
1.8 20.2 (8.0) 12.9 1.9 2.0 0.6 15.2 (1.0) 12.0 (0.5) (0.7) 3.4
2.8 21.8 5.9 18.5 1.6 2.7 1.0 14.4 (0.4) 12.0 (0.7) (0.5) 2.1
1.9 10.7 (3.0) 10.9 0.8 1.3 (0.9) 12.0 (1.0) 10.3 (2.1) (4.9) 4.0
2.0 5.8 1.1 18.9 2.1 2.7 0.1 14.0 (1.1) 11.1 (0.1) (0.8) 1.6
(3.6) (4.6) 7.5 4.1 (1.2) 0.5 (1.2) 11.0 (1.3) (1.4) 0.9 1.0 6.3
1.2 4.6 1.0 13.0 0.7 1.2 (0.8) 9.5 (1.4) 4.9 (0.1) (0.8) 4.4
0.7 13.9 16.3 14.5 2.3 2.4 1.2 16.4 (0.3) 14.2 (0.0) 0.4 3.3
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(Pts) (%pts)
EM vs DM ()
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2014. 11. 17
Samsung Market Strategy
Earnings reality
(1) 2015
2012 .
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IV. p24
V. p31
VI. (, , ) p44
VII. Top picks p56
2015 ,
,
2014. 11. 17
Samsung Market Strategy
15
( )
: MSCI Korea
: WiseFn,
2012: / 2013: /
: MSCI Korea
: WiseFn,
2014: 2015:
: MSCI Korea
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2009 2010 2011
2012 2013 2014
(: = 100)
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2009 2010 2011
2012 2013 2014
(: = 100)
(5) 0 5
2011 2012
()
10 12 14 16 18
/
2013 2014
()
/
2012 2013
()
0 5
IT
2014 2015
()
16
MSCI Korea: MSCI Korea:
: WiseFn, : WiseFn,
CRB CAPEX
: MSCI Korea
: WiseFn,
PMI PMI MSCI Korea 12 EPS
: Bloomberg, : Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg,
19 20 17 30
(%)
() PMI()
(, %) ()
EPS () PMI()
CRB
Capex
(%)
2015
. ,
. 2 .
2 2015 .
, 'nutcracker'
.
2013~14 ,
.
10 2008~09, 2012~13
.
.
.
MSCI Korea
. ( )
8%( 11%) .
.
.
- .
.
. IT
. ,
.
.
2015 .
MSCI Korea 2015 ( , )
() (, %) (, %) (, %)
1,054,789 (0.65) 55,345 (13.25) 51,801 (1.35)
181,635 (11.29) 18,164 (26.06) 17,190 (22.46)
199,636 4.08 11,395 (26.70) 17,272 5.54
673,518 1.26 25,787 8.86 17,339 24.06
186,139 1.88 18,876 41.14 13,810 94.27
84,785 13.78 16,881 15.03 13,169 3.88
285,435 (0.45) 9,972 (3.04) 4,176 0.00
MSCI Korea 1,611,148 5.20 101,075 (1.04) 82,956 8.48
: 2014 11 7 ,
: Thomson Reuters,
,
2014. 11. 17
Samsung Market Strategy
1:
MSCI Korea 2015 3~4% (
, 11 7 ). 2000 CAGR 12.8%
2 .
2013 .
, 2015 10%
( 4.8% ) . (
) MSCI Korea +3.9% -0.1% .
(* , )
() 2013 2014(E) 2015(E)
MSCI Korea* MSCI Korea 1,534,926 2.65 1,531,567 (0.22) 1,576,842 3.2
1,306,234 0.93 1,326,817 1.58 1,384,647 4.4
+ 1,117,779 (0.08) 1,135,011 1.54 1,183,573 4.3
IT 355,798 10.31 336,809 (3.09) 334,136 0.1
() 228,693 13.72 204,750 (7.36) 192,195 (4.8)
() 5,370 12.02 6,157 15.37 7,217 17.2
48,702 8.63 49,761 2.95 52,691 5.9
188,455 7.39 191,806 2.23 201,073 5.2
32,351 4.20 35,284 3.79 38,560 9.3
1,170 (0.65) - 6.14 0 -
83,220 1.54 87,276 6.88 92,966 6.5
24,215 8.66 24,387 (1.09) 25,359 4.0
/ 115,259 (1.73) 112,833 0.09 117,131 3.8
84,261 (4.76) 90,789 7.31 93,719 3.2
65,157 (1.02) 62,826 (0.99) 64,721 3.0
107,411 (6.23) 105,176 0.85 103,368 (1.7)
92,101 (8.32) 95,269 0.43 97,689 2.5
51,863 8.06 52,157 3.99 53,298 2.2
283,021 (2.38) 286,728 1.15 302,132 5.4
(* , )
2015 ()
05 13~14 * (y/y, %) (y/y, %)
MSCI Korea* MSCI Korea (0.5) 1.1 1,576,842 3.2 1,526,363 (0.1)
0.6 1.2 1,384,647 4.4 1,344,728 1.4
+ (0.1) 0.7 1,183,573 4.3 1,145,092 0.9
IT IT (6.2) 2.1 334,136 0.1 323,576 (3.1)
() (11.8) 1.0 192,195 (4.8) 181,635 (10.0) -10%
() 8.2 13.3 7,217 17.2 6,979 13.3 13~14
2.2 5.4 52,691 5.9 52,449 5.4 13~14
1.5 4.4 201,073 5.2 199,636 4.4 13~14
2.8 7.9 38,560 9.3 38,073 7.9 13~14
- (48.1) 0 - 0 - 13~14
1.4 3.2 92,966 6.5 90,078 3.2 13~14
(15.4) 1.4 25,359 4.0 24,727 1.4 13~14
/ (2.1) (2.0) 117,131 3.8 110,631 (2.0) 13~14
(13.8) 1.6 93,719 3.2 92,273 1.6 13~14
(3.6) (1.4) 64,721 3.0 61,962 (1.4) 13~14
(21.9) (5.4) 103,368 (1.7) 99,457 (5.4) 13~14
(2.9) 6.2 97,689 2.5 95,269 0.0 15 0
0.6 1.2 53,298 2.2 52,797 1.2 13~14
(26.6) (0.5) 302,132 5.4 285,435 (0.5) 13~14
: * , ( )
: WiseFn,
2014. 11. 17
Samsung Market Strategy
2:
2012~14 6% . 10 2005,
06, 07 2010 7~8% ,
/ 1,150 .
,
7% . 1%pt
. 2008, 09, 12, 13
(
+18.4%, +24.8%) -3.0%, +11.3% .
(* , )
() 2013 2014(E) 2015(E)
MSCI Korea* MSCI Korea 95,645 6.2 86,838 5.7 102,784 6.5
58,860 4.5 62,685 4.8 81,932 5.9
+ 42,519 3.8 47,347 4.2 65,556 5.6
IT 44,263 12.4 34,088 10.2 32,737 9.8
() 36,785 16.1 24,153 12.0 20,852 10.8
() 955 17.8 1,319 21.4 1,697 23.5
3,647 7.5 3,642 7.3 4,030 7.6
16,341 8.7 15,338 8.0 16,375 8.1
3,206 5.0 3,916 11.1 4,569 11.8
162 4.2 0 - 0 -
(1,090) (1.3) 2,637 3.0 3,623 3.9
(348) (2.8) 269 1.1 593 2.3
/ 3,210 2.6 (1,623) (1.4) 3,443 2.9
6,100 7.2 6,905 7.6 7,872 8.4
1,205 2.5 1,348 2.1 1,791 2.8
2,301 2.6 576 0.5 2,127 2.1
3,007 7.4 7,137 7.5 7,994 8.2
3,393 3.1 2,322 4.5 4,319 8.1
10,249 3.6 10,285 3.6 13,309 4.4
(* , )
2008, 09, 12, 13** 2015 ()
15E * (y/y, %) (y/y, %)
MSCI Korea* MSCI Korea 6.4 6.1 6.5 102,784 18.4 84,193 (3.0)
5.6 4.5 5.9 81,932 30.7 66,030 5.3
+ 5.3 3.8 5.6 65,556 38.5 54,635 15.4
IT IT 8.3 4.2 9.4 32,737 (4.0) 25,330 (25.7) ***
() 10.8 5.7 10.1 20,852 (13.7) 18,164 (24.8) 10% ( 10.8%)
() 21.9 17.8 23.7 1,697 28.6 1,528 15.8 4
9.2 7.5 7.6 4,030 10.7 3,928 7.9 4
7.8 5.7 8.1 16,375 6.8 11,395 (25.7) 4
13.9 9.9 11.8 4,569 16.7 5,274 34.7 4
17.0 13.8 - 0 - - -
3.3 (1.3) 4.0 3,623 37.4 2,961 12.3 4
(0.7) (2.4) 2.4 593 120.4 578 114.9 15
/ 6.1 2.8 3.0 3,443 (312.1) 3,081 (289.8) 4
12.5 7.2 8.4 7,872 14.0 6,680 (3.2) 4
3.0 1.3 2.8 1,791 32.9 790 (41.4) 4
3.2 2.1 2.1 2,127 269.2 2,131 269.8 4
(0.3) (5.5) 8.1 7,994 12.0 7,796 9.2 15
8.7 6.0 8.1 4,319 86.0 4,278 84.2 15
5.6 3.5 4.4 13,309 29.4 9,972 (3.0) 4
: * , ( ), ** 4, ***
: WiseFn,
2014. 11. 17
Samsung Market Strategy
() 2013 2014(E) 2015(E)
MSCI Korea* MSCI Korea 65,102 4.2 62,723 4.1 78,290 5.0
35,280 2.7 41,906 3.2 60,101 4.3
+ 18,048 1.6 25,261 2.2 42,705 3.6
IT 36,151 10.2 27,940 8.4 27,253 8.2
() 29,821 13.0 20,817 10.3 18,189 9.5
() 2,245 41.8 1,190 19.3 1,533 21.2
2,255 4.6 2,356 4.7 2,666 5.1
17,232 9.1 16,645 8.7 17,397 8.7
1,751 5.4 2,306 6.5 2,753 7.1
189 16.1 100 - 121 -
273 0.3 1,492 1.7 2,482 2.7
(1,741) (7.2) (191) (0.8) (15) (0.1)
/ (921) (0.8) (1,531) (1.4) 1,679 1.4
910 1.1 3,765 4.1 5,093 5.4
3,782 5.8 778 1.2 1,107 1.7
55 0.1 184 0.2 1,487 1.4
1,377 1.5 3,345 3.5 7,132 7.3
(141) (0.3) 1,358 2.6 3,163 5.9
1,756 0.6 4,176 1.5 5,972 2.0
(* , )
2012, 13, 14** 2015 ()
15E * (y/y, %) (y/y, %)
MSCI Korea* MSCI Korea 4.2 4.2 5.0 78,290 24.8 69,787 11.3
3.0 2.7 4.3 60,101 43.4 52,597 25.5
+ 2.0 1.6 3.6 42,705 69.1 35,325 39.8
IT IT 8.9 8.2 8.2 27,253 (2.5) 29,596 5.9 4 ***
() 11.6 10.3 9.5 18,189 (12.6) 17,190 (17.4) 4
() 27.7 19.2 21.3 1,533 28.9 1,348 13.3 4
4.9 4.6 5.1 2,666 13.1 2,428 3.1 4
9.2 8.7 8.7 17,397 4.5 17,272 3.8 4
6.3 5.4 7.2 2,753 19.4 2,383 3.3 3
- - - 121 20.4 100 - 2014
0.7 (2.1) 2.7 2,482 66.4 1,492 0.0 4
(2.6) (3.8) (0.1) (15) (92.4) (191) 0.0 3
/ 0.5 (1.4) 1.4 1,679 (209.6) (1,501) - 4
4.9 4.1 5.4 5,093 35.3 3,827 1.6 4
0.8 0.1 1.7 1,107 42.3 52 (93.3) 4
1.1 0.2 1.4 1,487 709.0 174 (5.4) 4
0.0 (3.3) 7.3 7,132 113.2 7,132 113.2 4
3.4 2.6 5.9 3,163 132.9 2,846 109.6 2014
1.3 0.8 2.0 5,972 43.0 4,176 0.0 4
: * , ( ), ** 3 15 , ***
: WiseFn,
(1) KOSPI : 1,900~2,250pt
.
,
.
.
.
2011 2014 11 KOSPI 4
11.3 12.4 pricing .
.
backward looking
. ,
. .
4 P/E pricing ,
KOSPI 1,900~2,250pt(1,921~2,257pt) .
. 4 2011
. P/E 10.1 .
KOSPI 1,715pt .
11 7 12 P/B 0.84 . 2013
P/E 14.1 ,
KOSPI 2,390pt
P/E
P/E 2011 2012 2013 2014* 4
MSCI Korea
11.8 12.0 13.3 12.6 12.4
12.0 13.4 17.2 14.1 14.2
: * 11 7
2015 KOSPI
* **
Panic 1,891 1,715
2,118 1,921
2,488 2,257
Bubble 2,635 2,390
: * 17~20 ( , ), ** 2
:
4 MSCI Korea KOSPI . MSCI Korea KOSPI 83%
, 2013 KOSPI 105% .
& pricing
1,700~2,400pt
2014. 11. 17
Samsung Market Strategy
(2) ()
2 .
,
. 1 . 2014
3~4 . 1
(BOJ, ECB) .
. 1 2
.
2015 KSOPI 1,900pt
. ,
, , re-
building .
- ,
.
.
KOSPI P/E KOSPI P/E
: MSCI Korea
: WiseFn,
: WiseFn,
MSCI Korea: MSCI Korea:
: WiseFn, : WiseFn,
2015 2
(20)
(15)
(10)
(5)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
23
KOSPI : 12 P/E KOSPI : 12 P/B
: Thomson Reuters, : Thomson Reuters,
MSCI Korea: 12 P/E MSCI Korea: 12 P/B
: Thomson Reuters, : Thomson Reuters,
MSCI Korea: 12 P/E MSCI Korea: 12 P/B
: Thomson Reuters, : Thomson Reuters,
14.6
6.5
12.9
10.6
7.8
10.9
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
()
+2SD
-1SD
-2SD
+1SD
1.8
0.8
1.4
0.9
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.9
()
+1SD
+2SD
-1SD
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
2015 ( rotation) .
2014 (expansion),
deflationary boom . 2013~14
(recovery) (expansion) .
2015 ? 2014 ,
(expansion) . Top down
, .
, inflationary
boom ' ' .
.
.
cyclical .
Top down
. cyclical 2015
, 2014
. '5'
'' .
6. 2015
.
(cyclical ) .
, Top down()
, , , , Overweight .
, . , , ,
, , Underweight .
. IT
Neutral . ,
.
5 ,
. 6 , . Fed
. , ,
. ,
, inflationary boom .
IV. p24
V. p31
VI. (, , ) p44
VII. Top picks p56
?
,
2014. 11. 17
Samsung Market Strategy
Macro Historical Earning Model views*
view valuation Momentum Score Views
+ - + + 0.7 ++ , Overweight
+ + 0.6 ++ Overweight
- + (0.1) Overweight
/ 0.0 , Market weight
+ - 0.0 Market weight
IT ++ - - 0.0 rebuilding Market weight
- - + (0.3) Market weight
- (0.3) Market weight
- - - (1.0) - - Market weight
0.0 Underweight
- - + (0.4) - Underweight
- (0.4) - Underweight
() - - - (1.0) - - Underweight
- - - (1.1) - - Underweight
:
DRAM 1) 2) Capacity , 3) 3 Capa
trend .
NAND SSD
, TSMC 100% , LTE ,
AP 1xnm FinFET .
TV UHD TV .
1) 4Q14 15 , 2) Cannibalization
PC PC , YoY .
Tech , (Capex) . Capa
, Fab YoY , .
, 14 TV 15 .
Android . .
Sell-in .
, .
2nd-tier .
2014 , 2015
, - 10 ,
,
.
2014 . 100
.
2015 1 NCC 2016 NCC . 2015
.
2014 4 restocking 2015 2014
.
: 1) , 2) .
2014 , 2015 .
2014 , PX oversupply PX .
14 3 4
15 .
. 14
, 15 .
, 14 .
/civil .
2014. 11. 17
Samsung Market Strategy
2015 3.4%YoY 90 .
. ,
.
SUV 2015 . Global Insight , SUV
2013-6 6.5% 3% . , ,
. SUV 14 15 SUV
.
.
06~07 .
2014 Top-line , ,
. ASP Q .
,
.
2014-8 7% , Downstream
Sales infra .
2014-8 12% .
Capex 2016 9 ,
.
1 . ,
.
.
2014 ,
, , (commodity)
//
company specific .
Neutral (>>)
: .
.
TPL TPL
.
: 2015 , 2015
yield trading
.
: 2014 2015
. , ,
.
Overweight
,
outperform . valuation
.
2015<2014 . 2014
2015
, /
2015 2.9% .
,
.
,
.
,
,
.
,
.
, ,
, , .
2014. 11. 17
Samsung Market Strategy
, ,
, . FIT ,
, ,
. , ,
VIP
. GKL VIP Mass ,
,
NIM
.
NPL ,
credit cost .
6.4% , ROE 7.4% (vs 2014E: 6.7%) .
( )
, Bottom-line
,
6
14 15
14
/
, , , ,
, SNS
,
,
ARPU 14 LTE 64%, 89%
. ARPU
.
LTE .
5G 20 15 LTE CAPEX .
15 LTE, ,
.
2013 ,
.
2015 (ESS, ) ,
.
valuation ,
/
B2B .
B2C IKEA
.
:
28
(Top down )
*
Expansion Downturn Slowdown Recovery Expansion Downturn Slowdown Recovery
MSCI Korea 1.61 0.59 (1.45) 4.29
1.50 0.82 (0.79) (1.88) + - - -
1.27 0.39 1.23 0.63 + - - +
0.13 1.13 (0.34) (0.51) +
/ 2.68 0.74 (1.11) (2.04) + +
1.38 1.47 2.57 (1.92) + + +
0.65 0.43 (2.17) 1.62 - - +
0.75 0.86 1.59 1.55 + +
0.60 0.84 1.35 2.30 +
/ (0.85) 0.01 0.86 3.23 - - - - - + +
(0.87) 1.58 1.09 (1.42) - + - -
0.86 2.36 2.61 (0.01) + + +
1.36 1.65 (0.49) (2.98) + + - -
(0.08) 0.07 (1.62) 1.60 - - - +
0.42 0.61 0.95 (0.32) -
0.25 0.61 0.28 (1.29) - -
IT IT (0.52) (0.73) 1.70 1.67 - - - + +
2.33 0.37 4.20 (1.55) + + + +
(1.34) (0.82) 0.60 (3.00) - - - - -
(1.38) 0.31 0.63 (1.82) - - - -
0.48 0.67 0.69 (0.32)
1.14 0.78 1.56 1.88
: * 2001 1~2014 8 MSCI
: Thomson Reuters,
OECD *
: Thomson Reuters, : * - --
: Thomson Reuters,
EPS
: 10
: Thomson Reuters,
: Thomson Reuters,
2013~14 MSCI Korea 2015 ( )
: Thomson Reuters, : WiseFn,
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
()
Model MSCI Korea
(: 2001 1=100)
(2.5) (2.0) (1.5) (1.0) (0.5) 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
(%)
(2) Top 10 picks
2015 top picks 2 . 'top 10
picks'. . top picks 4
.
, . , , .
, .
, . , , GKL, .
. , .
, 2015 . , , .
, .
( 3) .
, . SK
, .
56 .
, ,
4 .
. .
Top 10 picks
() 15 (, %)
() P/E P/B EV/EBITDA EPS ROE
A005930 1,200,000 1,650,000 176.8 11.5 1.1 3.6 (12.6) 10.6
A032830 120,000 140,000 24.0 23.7 1.1 n/a (23.3) 0.0
A012330 237,000 330,000 23.1 6.0 0.9 5.3 6.3 15.2
SK A017670 274,500 340,000 22.2 9.4 1.7 4.1 28.8 15.7
A090430 2,275,000 3,330,000 13.3 25.5 4.1 14.4 35.6 17.7
A000830 75,400 92,000 11.8 19.6 1.1 12.7 29.7 5.3
A035720 142,500 200,000 8.1 28.0 9.7 18.9 190.4 24.8
GKL A114090 39,900 62,000 2.5 16.0 4.9 9.5 34.6 32.2
A005440 17,600 22,000 1.7 16.9 1.0 8.5 8.5 6.6
* A192520 13,050 n/a 1.0 6.2 0.5 n/a n/a 7.7
: ; 11 13 ; *
: WiseFn,
2014. 11. 17
Samsung Market Strategy
V.
4 ,
. . 2015
.
top picks
. 4.
, ,
. .
, .
.
, B2C
.
.
, . 1)
, 2)
.
() P/E P/B EV/EBITDA EPS ROE
CJ* A001040 170,000 n/a 4.9 18.6 1.3 5.2 32.4 7.9
A011210 182,500 260,000 4.7 9.9 1.6 5.7 13.5 16.9
A000240 21,450 30,000 2.0 10.5 0.8 7.6 1.0 7.6
* A086900 244,900 n/a 1.4 27.3 9.4 21.1 16.7 42.8
* A085660 14,150 n/a 0.7 23.5 2.4 n/a 39.9 10.0
* A015860 7,390 n/a 0.4 9.7 1.1 6.6 36.9 12.8
* A100120 32,200 n/a 0.3 18.0 3.6 11.2 40.3 21.8
A009240 121,000 140,000 2.8 28.8 5.4 18.4 19.6 26.3
* A171120 24,350 n/a 0.2 10.2 2.5 7.7 54.7 26.3
* A016100 22,950 n/a 0.4 10.6 3.8 3.9 105.3 46.4
: ; 11 13 ; *
: WiseFn,
IV. p24
V. p31
VI. (, , ) p44
VII. Top picks p56
2014. 11. 17
Samsung Market Strategy
(1) -
, .
.
. ' '
( )
( )
.
,
. ,
. -
,
.
. 3 track record
. , 1, 2
6 , , , , F&B, S&T,
GKL
.
( )
,
. ,
.
, .
,
. ,
. , keyword 1) 2)
.
,
.
50% ,
.
3
.
.
5%
, 5%
. ,
.
.
(%) 3 3
() (%) (%) 2014E 2015E (%) (%)
A011210 4,593 41.0 13.2 5.6 14.5 4.0 0.3
A097950 CJ 4,900 34.5 12.5 52.3 95.6 12.6 0.6
A001680 1,337 44.5 12.4 4.7 11.1 6.4 0.5
A005440 1,681 37.7 11.0 16.8 15.0 9.0 0.3
A035760 CJ 1,459 43.5 10.1 5.8 16.1 11.3 0.7
: ; 5
: WiseFn,
A049770 F&B 29.14 2.35 33.33
A003000 77.08 2.68 33.75
A064960 S&T 19.93 1.88 60.68
A000480 37.07 5.22 33.33
**
A034730 SK C&C 42.93 1.06 46.50
A018880 55.55 2.86 42.37
A001040 CJ 9.45 0.74 45.63
A047050 14.86 0.73 36.63
A114090 GKL 52.15 3.33 50.57
A007310 15.32 1.29 31.10
A105630 9.39 0.97 52.54
A108670 LG 22.02 1.23 80.00
A049770 F&B 29.14 2.35 33.33
A008490 64.85 1.06 36.28
A003000 77.08 2.68 33.75
A064960 S&T 19.93 1.88 60.68
A000480 37.07 5.22 33.33
: KOSPI200 , , IFRS-parent
100%
* : 3 · 1.2 , () 10%
** : 3 · 0.5 , () 30%
: , WiseFn,
34
3 () KOSPI 200 vs. KOSPI 200 14
: WiseFn, Bloomberg, : WiseFn,
* 3 vs.
: * KOSPI + KOSDAQ, (-) 100
: WiseFn,
* 3 vs. * vs. **:
: * 42
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
KOSPI 200 KOSPI 200
(: 14 = 100)
y = 0.0824x + 20.493
3 (%)
3 (%)
* **
1.
: ,
,
:
, ,
→ ,
3 , ,
: 2017 12 31
- ( ) 25%
2.
: 500 ,
: 2017 12 31
, , ,
10%, 2
A, B (, 3 ) -
- A ( ):
- B ( ):
2014. 11. 17
Samsung Market Strategy
(2) -
, ' ' .
,
. , 2013 2014
.
, 2014
.
.
. ,
(Biologics) .
, 5 6~8%
.
,
.
,
.
//
.
,
. BRICs
'' .
,
, .
' ' .
,
. inbound boom
,
. ,
,
.
,
. IMS
Health 10 ,
, ,
. , , ,
. 'Tech giant' '' ,
.
37
,
. 2010, 5
.
- , 2015
,
.
, 2015 ' '
.
. , , , ,
.
1) 10% ,
2) 15 3 Allergan
1) DBM 2) 2015
.
1) CHO
, 2)
FPD X-ray
X-ray
.
1)
, 2) 2015
:
() P/E P/B EV/EBITDA EPS ROE
A086900 244,900 n/a 1.4 27.3 9.4 21.1 16.7 42.8
A085660 14,150 n/a 0.7 23.5 2.4 n/a 39.9 10.0
A015860 7,390 n/a 0.4 9.7 1.1 6.6 36.9 12.8
A100120 32,200 n/a 0.3 18.0 3.6 11.2 40.3 21.8
A042520 16,850 n/a 0.2 30.1 4.2 n/a 29.3 15.6
: ; 11 13 ;
: WiseFn,
2014. 11. 17
Samsung Market Strategy
38
: vs. : vs.
: MSCI AC World
: Thomson Reuters,
: Kospi + Kosdaq
: WiseFn,
2013-2017
: IMS Health, Market Prognosis (Nov 2013), : * , , , ,
: IMS Health, Market Prognosis (Nov 2013),
(Biologics)
: IMS Health, Market Prognosis (Nov 2013), : 2013
: Espicom, Worldwide Medical Market Forecasts to 2018 (2013),
,
()
()
() (%)
(6)
(4)
(2)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
/ /
() (, %)
MSCI AC World MSCI AC World health care
(: 12 = 100)
39
: , : ,
: , : ,
5 2012
: , : ,
(5)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
(, %)
(5)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
(, %)
27%
16%
()
(3) () -
. ,
. 2
, . ,
.
.
/ . 9.1
40 30 ,
.
. 2015 / 31,629
.
.
. , B2B
,
. B2C IKEA
, . B2C
.
/ ,
.
.
2010 8% , 2015
28.4, 2020 41.5 . 1)
, 2)
, 3)
.
2004 2001 15
44% . 10%
. 2020
.
.
B2C
.
. B2C
, .
B2C B2C 70%
. 85.9%
.
.
: 2014 10 27
: 114
: 114
/
: CEIC,
: : 2013
: , ,
()
()
(4) 2 -
2014 . 1)
, 2) , 3)
. .
2
.
.
, .
.
.
.
.
12.5 , 3 CAGR 12.9% .
2005 7% .
.
. KOTRA IFEZ 2018
221 6 . 2013
271 82% .
. GKL
.
.
,
. 6 ,
1 . 5
1 . .
(C-BPI) Top 5
2011 51% 2013 57%
.
,
,
. peer .
.
. 2013
/ 73.1%, 40.8%, 32.7% .
/ 4 3
.
,
2014. 11. 17
Samsung Market Strategy
43
.
.
.
40%
10
, .
1 ,
.
. 1
, Top 5
1 .
: :
Top 5 : vs
: , LG :
:
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
() (%)
() (, %)
()
()
11 13 11 13 11 13 11 13 11 13
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
(1)
2015 1) , 2)
(Fed , ECB/BOJ
), 3) .
, 2015
. ,
.
2000
.
1) ( ), 2)
, 3) boom cycle
.
2015 3.3% 2014
2.2% , 2016 3%
. 1) , 2)
, 3)
. , 2015
.
0.5~0.7% GDP ,
→ → →
.
2014 0.8% 2015 1.2% ,
. 1) 2014 AQR/Stress
test , 2)
TLTRO ECB 2015
. 2010
, .
2015 7.2% 2014 .
,
(+)
. , 2013 3 2
.
7 2015 (2014 10 31 , )
IV. p24
V. p31
VI. (, , ) p44
VII. Top picks p56
,
, 7%
GDP (, %)
CPI (, %)
/ ()
WTI (/) 92 98 85 90 95
: * (2014 10 )
: , Consensus Economics
FX
Fed (10 QE3 ) (2015 6 )
(gradualism)
US: (2.2%)
EM:
US:
10 (3.0% → 2.3%)
flattening
steepening
DM: > >
US > EM > EZ/JP DM: US > EZ > JP
EM: >
2014. 11. 17
Samsung Market Strategy
(2)
2015 2014 3.5% 3.7%
. ,
, .
2014 3.0%
2.1% .
2014 .
.
4 2% . 2015
3% ,
.
.
, 1)
, 2) / , 3)
.
,
.
2014 4/4 , 2015 970
. 1)
2)
2015 1,000
.
. 2015 / 970 1980
1
.
(%pts)* 0.5 4.4 1.2 1.1 2.7 2.6 3.9 3.6
(%pts) 3.2 (1.4) 0.9 1.5 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.2
() 33.6 28.9 18.7 50.8 79.9 90.1 107.5 94.7
(GDP, %) 3.7 2.6 1.6 4.2 6.1 6.2 6.7 5.6
(BoP ) (15.9) 27.4 26.6 2.8 2.3 3.0 2.1 6.8
(BoP ) (24.9) 31.6 34.2 (0.7) (3.2) 0.4 (1.2) 10.1
2.8 3.0 4.0 2.2 1.3 1.3 1.5 2.0
(, %) 2.00 2.50 3.25 2.75 2.50 2.00 2.00 2.50
/ () 1,165 1,135 1,152 1,071 1,055 1,000 970 950
: *
,
(1)
2015 , risk-on
. 2009 ' ' ,
.
,
.
,
.
2015 2014 ,
. QE3 tapering
2013 , ,
. , 2013 ~2014 2,200
, 500 3
. , 2
.
, risk-off ,
. 3 -
, ECB BOJ .
, B/S
buffer .
, bottoming out
.
, 2014 3~9
,
.
.
, 2015
.
2015 ,
safe haven
. 1)
2)
. ,
, , ,
. ,
.
.
.
, 2015 ,
/
.
2014. 11. 17
Samsung Market Strategy
2015 .
,
'' . ,
MSCI (A)
.
2015
.
1990
, ,
. 2013~14
, 2015 ,
. 2013 'Fragile 5'
, .
2015
.
, 3 , 2011 3
59% . ,
. , 2013
3 56% ,
. /
25% ,
,
. , (GPIF)
,
.
,
. 2011
. , 2013
. , ,
. ,
bottoming out .
MSCI EM
(A) , .
.
,
.
A MSCI EM passive
. ,
. 2014 , MSCI A
, 6 MSCI
. 2015 5%
,
consultation,
1 2016
.
, 2015 .
(3) ,
2015 . 1)
, 2)
, 3)
.
.
2014 2 , .
(NCR , ), (
, ), ( ,
)
.
,
. 5 3.7
10 4.5
, .
.
DC() IRP()
40% 70% . ' '
,
70% . ,
,
. ,
.
.
. 2009 36
2014 2 87 ,
2015 107 . ,
.
. KOSPI 2011 ,
' , ' . ,
1,950~2,000
. 14 1,950
, 1,900
.
,
.
. SDS
.
,
/
, .
,
. , 2015
, 2003~2007
.
: EPFR,
: 2013 : 2013
: EPFR, : EPFR,
: Optimal control vs. Taylor rule (1999)
: Bloomberg, : Federal Reserve
(100)
(50)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
()
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
13 7 13 10 14 1 14 4 14 7 14 10
()
(60)
(50)
(40)
(30)
(20)
(10)
0
10
13 7 13 10 14 1 14 4 14 7 14 10
()
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
(GDP , %)
51
vs. (2015 ) :
: IMF, CEIC, : ,
: ,
: Thomson Reuters,
(GDP , %)
(GDP , %)
()
(50)
(40)
(30)
(20)
(10)
0
10
20
30
()
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
(: 2011 = 100)
52
KOSPI: 14 () KOSPI: 2014
: KRX, : KRX,
:
DB
: ,
:
: ,
KOSPI vs. /
: KRX, : CMA, , MMF
: KRX,
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
()
36.3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
() (, )
06 6 08 6 10 6 12 6 14 6
()
(30)
(20)
(10)
0
10
20
30
(1)
2015 . , 2015 1 ,
4 16 ±15% ±30%
. ' '
' '
.
, .
,
, , , ,
. ,
(VI: Volatility Interruption)
.
.8
9 1
. ,
, VI
.
'
' . ,
/ .
, ,
.
4(KOSDAQ 3) ,
.
, KOSPI
98 12(±12% → ±15%) . 99 IT
,
. KOSDAQ
.
KOSPI:
( , )
12 6 3 1 1 3 6 12
( 4.6%) → ±6% 95 4 1 748 800 548 486 363 354 517 477
±6% → ±8% 96 11 25 515 491 528 417 394 485 556 569
±8% → ±12% 98 3 2 645 644 810 903 643 470 442 833
±12% → ±15% 98 12 7 593 561 711 1,034 2,504 1,924 2,399 3,349
: KRX, FnGuide,
( , )
12 6 3 1 1 3 6 12
( 5.4%) → ±8% 96 11 1
±8% → ±12% 98 5 25 5.3 5.8 6.0 1.9 3.1 4.6 4.5 19.0
±12% → ±15% 05 3 28 791.1 967.3 1,454.5 1,287.9 986.9 1,379.6 1,544.7 1,981.0
: KRX, FnGuide,
±30%
,
. KOSPI,
KOSDAQ
,
.
.
/ ,
, Gibbs-sampling
9 15%
.
, KOSDAQ .
KOSPI KOSDAQ ,
/
. ,
0.9%, 8.9% 90%
, . ,
,
KOSDAQ .
. '±15%'
,
. -
,
.
,
.
KOSDAQ
. ,
. ,
,
.
9 , “KRX ” (2008 3)
55
KOSPI: vs KOSDAQ: vs
: KRX, FnGuide, : KRX, FnGuide,
KOSPI vs. KOSDAQ: / KOSPI: /
: KRX, FnGuide, : KRX, FnGuide,
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
() ()
( , %) (%)
() ()
( , %) (%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
KOSPI KOSDAQ
EPS (adj) () 171,683 117,600 102,421 105,736
EPS (adj) growth (%) 24.9 (31.5) (12.9) 3.2
EBITDA margin (%) 23.6 20.7 20.7 21.0
ROE (%) 22.4 13.1 10.4 9.9
P/E (adj) () 8.3 10.8 12.4 12.0
P/B () 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.0
EV/EBITDA () 3.5 3.9 3.9 3.6
Dividend yield (%) 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0
:
THE QUICK VIEW
: TV
, Deflation . LED
,
. HTC, Sony, Motorola,
Nokia , LG
.
2 , TV .
: .
.
, .
,
OLED .
.
, :
3D NAND Flexible OLED.
3D NAND PC . Flexible
OLED .
: 1 10 4
. 60
,
. , P/B 1
. 2005
multiple , sentiment . 160 .
WHAT’S THE STORY?
Event: HW .
Impact: ,
.
. 3D NAND Flexible
.
Valuation .
Action: 12 165 .
Company
Update
Analyst
[email protected]
(%) -1.0 -5.1 +5.1
KEY CHANGES
SAMSUNG vs THE STREET
Target price vs I/B/E/S mean 11.3%
Estimates up/down (4 weeks) 0/1
1-year-fwd EPS vs I/B/E/S mean -7.9%
Estimates up/down (4 weeks) 15/6
I/B/E/S recommendation Buy
2014. 11. 11
EPS (adj) () 35,147 37,240 39,489 42,738
EPS (adj) growth (%) (3.9) 6.0 6.0 8.2
EBITDA margin (%) 9.8 9.8 9.9 10.0
ROE (%) 18.2 16.8 15.1 14.0
P/E (adj) () 6.7 6.3 6.0 5.5
P/B () 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.7
EV/EBITDA () 5.6 5.2 5.2 4.6
Dividend yield (%) 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9
:
THE QUICK VIEW
: /
M/S . P/E Valuation
.
Long- short :
Action, : action
, .
: A/S .
: .
4 .
A/S: A/S , A/S
.
.
/ : / 2020 25%
. , , 3
. /
.
/ 7 2020 22 .
4 : , , ,
. 4 ASP 2 .
WHAT’S THE STORY?
Event: 3
Valuation De-rating
Impact: M/S 4Q13
.
. A/S A/S
A/S
Action:
Valuation Re-rating . 15 Top-picks
Company
Update
Analyst
[email protected]
(%) -5.4 -19.1 -23.7
KEY CHANGES
SAMSUNG vs THE STREET
Target price vs I/B/E/S mean 0.3%
Estimates up/down (4 weeks) 0/15
1-year-fwd EPS vs I/B/E/S mean 7.7%
Estimates up/down (4 weeks) 3/24
I/B/E/S recommendation Strong Buy
(%) 87.1 85.6 86.7 86.9
(%) 13.6 15.0 14.0 14.0
ROE(%) 3.0 6.7 4.8 4.8
P/E () 39.6 18.2 23.7 22.8
P/B () 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0
Dividend yield (%) 0.7 2.8 1.7 1.8
:
THE QUICK VIEW
: 3 63bp QoQ 2bp,
YoY 8bp . 2~3
.
, 1) 2~3 , 2)
. ,
AI .
: 3 80.4%
. 1) ,
2) TF , 3) 00
.
.
2 1 CEO
.
,
.
Capital management : 14
1.3 Upgrade .
, 1)
, 2)
. 30, 50, 70% ,
1.8%, 3.0%, 4.2% .
,
Capital management .
Sentiment : , 1)
, 2) , 3)
, .
WHAT’S THE STORY?
Event: .
Impact: ,
. .
Action: . Capital management ,
, .
, CFA
(%) +13.6 +29.3 +18.5
KEY CHANGES
Company
Visit
Target price vs I/B/E/S mean 2.9%
Estimates up/down (4 weeks) 11/0
1-year-fwd EPS vs I/B/E/S mean -1.8%
Estimates up/down (4 weeks) 5/1
I/B/E/S recommendation Hold
2014. 11. 11
EPS (adj) () 18,154 22,742 29,217 31,960
EPS (adj) growth (%) 43.3 25.3 28.5 9.4
EBITDA margin (%) 29.7 31.5 34.0 34.0
ROE (%) 11.9 12.4 14.7 14.5
P/E (adj) () 15.3 11.9 9.2 8.4
P/B () 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.4
EV/EBITDA () 5.5 4.8 4.0 3.5
Dividend yield (%) 4.6 3.4 3.8 3.8
:
THE QUICK VIEW
2015 : SK(SKT) 2
(2013 51%, 2014 21%) . LTE
1) LTE
ARPU , 2) SK . LTE
2015 top-line
.
: LTE SKT
.
SKT
, SKT
.
.
: 2012 LTE SKT
. ,
capacity capex
.
, 2015 9,400
.
top pick : SKT BUY
, 1)
, 2)
. 1)
, 2) SK .
WHAT’S THE STORY?
Event: SK 2015 .
Impact: ,
2015 .
Action: BUY , 34 top pick .
Company
Update
SK (%) -9.3 +30.8 +14.0
KEY CHANGES
SAMSUNG vs THE STREET
Target price vs I/B/E/S mean -2.9%
Estimates up/down (4 weeks) 1/1
1-year-fwd EPS vs I/B/E/S mean 2.2%
Estimates up/down (4 weeks) 7/3
I/B/E/S recommendation Buy
2014. 11. 11
EPS (adj) () 44,868 69,112 95,023 116,701
EPS (adj) growth (%) (0.3) 54.0 37.5 22.8
EBITDA margin (%) 15.9 20.5 21.6 22.0
ROE (%) 10.9 14.8 17.6 18.4
P/E (adj) () 52.8 34.3 24.9 20.3
P/B () 5.7 5.0 4.2 3.5
EV/EBITDA () 27.6 17.5 13.5 11.1
Dividend yield (%) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6
:
THE QUICK VIEW
: 2014 22% y-y, 56% , 99% y-y 11% 18% , 400% y-y +44% y-y ( 2014 +3%pts y-y 21%). 2015 . 2010~2012 2012 , , 2013 . best practice 2H14 3Q14 , 2015 . 2015 33% y-y , 9.9% . +2.3%pts y-y 23% +3.4%pts 13.5% . 2015 20% y-y, 33% .
: ASP , SNS . , /(%) . ( ), 2013 2015 .
: 2014 EPS 52% y-y 135% . 1) EPS 2016 15% 38% ( peer 2015 P/E 25 ), 2) , .
WHAT’S THE STORY?
Event: 2014 , key word 135% .
Impact: , 2015 , . 2013 . .
Action: 333 BUY . 40.5%.
SAMSUNG vs THE STREET
Target price vs I/B/E/S mean 16.1%
Estimates up/down (4 weeks) 11/0
1-year-fwd EPS vs I/B/E/S mean 16.8%
Estimates up/down (4 weeks) 15/1
I/B/E/S recommendation Buy
(%) +1.2 +67.9 +172.8
KEY CHANGES
Company
Update
EPS (adj) () 1,024 2,646 3,496 3,777
EPS (adj) growth (%) (45.8) 158.4 32.1 8.0
EBITDA margin (%) 2.5 3.4 3.6 3.7
ROE (%) 2.3 4.5 5.6 5.7
P/E (adj) () 59.3 28.6 21.7 20.0
P/B () 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1
EV/EBITDA () 17.5 13.5 12.2 11.2
Dividend yield (%) 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7
: ,
THE QUICK VIEW
2015 :
2015 , 2015 3 8,000
~1 (vs. 2014 6,000~9,000 ) .
,
.
2, ,
2015
, 2015 12% .
: 10
3 (Bell River Wind Project) PPA(Power Purchase Agreement)
1~3 2017 400~1,000
.
(2014 3 30 ),
(2015 ) (2015
) ,
.
SDS : 9 30 SDS
, SDS 7.88%
(6,099,604) 150,000~190,000 .
SDS 17.1% 2 , SDS 1 69,307
9,159 190,000 ,
2.5 NAV 11 .
11~12 NAV
. SOTP 92,000 BUY .
WHAT’S THE STORY?
Event: 2015 .
Impact: 1) 2015 8,000
~ 1 ; 2) 2,
2015 ; 3) ,
.
Action: 11~12
NAV . SOTP 92,000
BUY .
Target price vs WiseFn mean 2.0%
Estimates up/down (4 weeks) 2/1
1-year-fwd EPS vs WiseFn mean -5.6%
Estimates up/down (4 weeks) 0/16
WiseFn recommendation Buy
(%) +5.3 +13.8 +23.3
KEY CHANGES
EPS (adj) () 5,405 2,363 5,120 7,372
EPS (adj) growth (%) (9.8) (56.3) 116.7 44.0
EBITDA margin (%) 21.4 16.8 33.2 39.0
ROE (%) 12.3 5.9 24.5 29.0
P/E (adj) () 25.9 59.2 27.3 19.0
P/B () 4.1 12.9 9.5 6.7
EV/EBITDA () 53.5 60.9 67.3 68.4
Dividend yield (%) 1.4 1.0 1.3 1.5
:
THE QUICK VIEW
: . 2 , PC . , , .
: 2015 . , SNS . . 2013 24% 2015 30% .
-- : , , . 11 . , . .
: BUY 200,000 . 1) , 2) , 3) .
WHAT’S THE STORY?
Event: 2015 .
Impact: 1) , 2)
, 3) .
Action: BUY 200,000 .
Company
Update
Analyst
[email protected]
(%) 0.6 92.0 60.7
KEY CHANGES
SAMSUNG vs THE STREET
Target price vs I/B/E/S mean +8%
Estimates up/down (4 weeks) 1/4
1-year-fwd EPS vs I/B/E/S mean -17%
Estimates up/down (4 weeks) 2/2
I/B/E/S recommendation Buy
2014. 11. 11
EPS (adj) () 2,228 1,918 2,586 3,100
EPS (adj) growth (%) (4.5) (13.9) 34.8 19.9
EBITDA margin (%) 36.0 29.7 33.5 35.4
ROE (%) 37.8 28.2 34.3 34.5
P/E (adj) () 16.8 19.5 14.5 12.1
P/B () 5.8 5.2 4.3 3.6
EV/EBITDA () 9.4 11.5 8.2 6.4
Dividend yield (%) 3.2 2.9 3.5 3.7
:
THE QUICK VIEW
: 2015 1)
2) . COEX
. , COEX 10%
1 Mass VIP . ,
Mass .
2 COEX 50% 4
. , 400
. 2 .
: GKL
. ,
JV . ,
1) 4~5
, 2) , 3)
.
BUY 62,000 : COEX
50% 40% ( 60% )
, 2~3 20%p .
20% COEX 20%
. , ,
2 . 15%
ROIC , GKL 10% , P/E
10 2 ,
. 2014
3%,
.
WHAT’S THE STORY?
Event: COEX
Impact: 20% 2~3 20%
Action: BUY 62,000
Company
Update
Analyst
[email protected]
GKL (%) -7.4 -12.5 +5.2
KEY CHANGES
Target price vs I/B/E/S mean 16.7%
Estimates up/down (4 weeks) 0/2
1-year-fwd EPS vs I/B/E/S mean 10.7%
Estimates up/down (4 weeks) 1/5
I/B/E/S recommendation Buy
2014. 11. 11
EPS (adj) () 645 961 1,043 1,114
EPS (adj) growth (%) 0.5 49.2 8.5 6.7
EBITDA margin (%) 7.1 6.6 6.5 6.4
ROE (%) 6.7 6.5 6.6 6.6
P/E (adj) () 20.8 17.7 16.3 15.3
P/B () 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0
EV/EBITDA () 15.9 16.2 14.4 12.7
Dividend yield (%) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
:
THE QUICK VIEW
: (2014 4.3%, 2.1%). (12.9%) , 20% . H&S , 8% . , (2014 7.9%, 2015 8.0% ) .
: 1.5 1 ( 2,000, 3,000). . , ( ). 2012 250 2016 494 .
: 2014 , . M&A . .
: (12.4%) PER 11 PBR 1.1 Valuation . 8 . ( 90%) . BUY 22,000 .
WHAT’S THE STORY?
Event: , , , . 2015 8%, 8.8% .
Impact: 2014 . , .
Action: ( 90%) Valuation( PER 11, PBR 1.1) . BUY 22,000 .
Company
Update
Target price vs I/B/E/S mean -13.7%
Estimates up/down (4 weeks) 0/0
1-year-fwd EPS vs I/B/E/S mean -11.6%
Estimates up/down (4 weeks) 0/0
I/B/E/S recommendation Buy
(%) -15.2 -4.0 +0.6
KEY CHANGES
2014. 11. 11
() 144 196 181 130
(%) 2.87 2.81 2.43 2.23
(% y-y) 5.2 21.1 15.5 15.4
BIS (%) 14.1 13.3 13.3 13.7
Tier-1 (%) 9.7 9.2 8.7 9.7
(%) 1.4 1.2 0.9 1.9
P/E () - - - -
P/B () - - - -
: ,
THE QUICK VIEW
BS - :
BS , . , 1) BS
2) , 3)
ROE valuation
.
:
. ,
, ,
. 25.4% ,
.
NIM : NIM
. NIM 1)
pricing , 2) , 3)
.
Credit cost : credit cost .
,
.
, BS
.
: 1)
FY15E P/B 0.45 P/E 6.2 , 2)
BS , 3)
ROE .
WHAT’S THE STORY?
Event: 2015 top pick .
Impact: .
Action: 1) FY15E P/B 0.45 P/E 6.2
, 2) BS
, 3) ROE .
Company
Update
Analyst
[email protected]
(%) 3.6 - -
KEY CHANGES
- 11 14 , , .
- 11 14 6 , M&A .
- 11 14 3 .
- 11 14 1% .
- 11 14 .
- 3 .
- .
- .
- , , , , .
- ,
. .
2
12 11 13 5 13 11 14 5 14 11
()
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
12 11 13 5 13 11 14 5 14 11
()
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
12 11 13 5 13 11 14 5 14 11
()
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
12 11 13 5 13 11 14 5 14 11
()
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
12 11 13 5 13 11 14 5 14 11
()
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
12 11 13 5 13 11 14 5 14 11
()
12 11 13 5 13 11 14 5 14 11
()
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
12 11 13 5 13 11 14 5 14 11
()
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
12 11 13 5 13 11 14 5 14 11
()
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY
TP () 70,000 72,000 80,000 88,000 94,000 92,000
BUY BUY BUY
BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY
TP () 1,550,000 1,700,000 1,900,000 1,800,000 1,650,000
BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY
TP () 370,000 350,000 295,000 380,000 360,000 330,000 330,000
SK
BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY
TP () 180,000 200,000 210,000 270,000 280,000 300,000 340,000
BUY BUY BUY
BUY BUY BUY BUY HOLD BUY
TP () 126,000 112,000 106,000 102,000 83,000 200,000
2012/11/23 2013/1/17 2/8 5/9 10/6 2014/2/7 4/13 5/9 7/10 8/13 10/9 11/11
BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY
TP () 1,360,000 1,290,000 1,200,000 1,120,000 1,080,000 1,263,000 1,630,000 1,710,000 1,932,000 2,640,000 3,130,000 3,330,000
GKL
2012/11/23 2013/1/10 4/29 11/4 11/14 2014/1/29 3/19 5/2
BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY
TP () 37,000 40,000 43,000 45,000 47,000 54,000 61,000 62,000
TP () Not Rated
: .
BUY () 12 30%
BUY () 12 10% ~ 30%
HOLD () 12 -10%~ 10%
SELL () 12 -10% ~-30%
SELL () 12 -30%
OVERWEIGHT() 12 5%
NEUTRAL() 12 (± 5%)
. , , , , . , . .
.
SAMSUNG MARKET STRATEGY
2015
(IT)
(,)
(/)
(/)
()
()
(/)
(/)
(/)
reality check KOSPI : MSCI Korea 3
2014 . .
, 8%( 11%)
. 2015
. .
2011~14 KOSPI 11.3~12.4
pricing. , ,
2015 KOSPI 1,900~2,250pt .
: '+' 'deflationary boom'
. 'inflationary boom'
.
(Blended trend) . .
. .
coupling .
2015 ,
.
allocation .
.
.
.
: 2015 (rotation)
. ,
.
cyclical '' .
,
'' . , , ,
Overweight, , , , , Underweight
. IT Neutral.
Top 10 picks , , , SK, ,
, , GKL, , .
: 2015 4 . ,
, .
. ,
B2C . ,
.
, CJ, , , ,
, , , , .
: , risk-on
.
. . MSCI
(A) .
.
2014. 11. 17
Samsung Market Strategy
II-1. 2015 ................................................................ 5
(1) Deflationary boom vs. ............... 5
(2) vs. .......... 7
(3) vs. ............. 10
(4) vs. ............................. 13
III. ............................................14
III-1. Earnings reality ........................................................................ 14
(2) ........................... 17
III-2. Valuation KOSPI .................................................... 21
(2) () ......................................... 22
IV. ..........................................................24
(1) Top down Bottom up ......................... 24
(2) Top 10 picks ................................... 30
V. ...........................................31
V-1. 4 ...................................................... 31
(1) - ........... 32
(2) - .................. 36
(3) () - ...................... 40
(4) 2 - ............................. 42
VI. ................................................................. 44
VI-1. .................................................................................. 44
V-3. ......................................................................... 53
VII. Top picks ............................................................... 56
................................................................ 57
............................................................. 58
................................................................ 59
SK ............................................................... 60
........................................................... 61
................................................................ 62
............................................................. 63
GKL ..................................................................... 64
........................................................... 65
................................................................ 66
I. Executive summary
KOSPI : 2011~14 KOSPI
11.3~12.4 pricing. 4
, 2015 KOSPI 1,900~2,250pt(1,921~2,257pt)
. 2011
. P/E 10.1.
2013 14.1 (1,700~2,400pt).
: 2015 1)
, 2) (Fed , ECB/BOJ
), 3) .
. 2014
3.5% 3.7% .
,
, .
: '+' 'deflationary boom '
. ,
2~3 ' ' .
. 'inflationary boom'
.
. .
coupling .
2015 ,
.
allocation .
,
. .
, .
.
reality check: 2010~11
CAPEX .
. 2014
. ,
. MSCI Korea 2011 3
2014 , .
2015 .
2 , MSCI Korea (
) 8%( 11%) .
.
IV. p24
V. p31
VI. (, , ) p44
VII. Top picks p56
2014. 11. 17
Samsung Market Strategy
: 2015 (rotation)
.
,
. cyclical
. 2015
() .
(cyclical ) .
, Top down()
, , , , Overweight .
, . , , , ,
, Underweight .
. IT
Neutral . ,
. ( top pick )
: 2015 4 .
, .
.
.
. B2C
.
. . 1)
, 2)
. ( )
( ): 2015 ,
risk-on . , 2015
.
. MSCI (A)
.
.
. 1
.
KOSDAQ .
top 10 picks
P/E P/B EPS ROE
() () (%) (%)
: 2015 ; *
: WiseFn,
() () (%) (%)
: 2015 ; *
: WiseFn,
2015
7 , '(Normal)'
.
.
, . 2015
. ()
,
. 'deflationary boom' .
Deflationary boom .
. 2~3 ' '
. .
,
. , deflationary boom
.
.
2~3
.
.
'inflationary boom' .
'' .
,
.
de-rating ,
.
.
. Inflationary boom
cyclical ,
.
cyclical .
Inflationary boom .
,
. 2015
.
. QE BOJ
ECB .
1~2 .
IV. p24
V. p31
VI. (, , ) p44
VII. Top picks p56
'deflationary boom'
2014. 11. 17
Samsung Market Strategy
:
OECD OECD , CPI
: 2005 1
: Thomson Reuters,
: 2005 1
: Thomson Reuters,
Cyclical vs. defensive P/B Cyclical vs. defensive P/E
: MSCI AC World ,
Cyclical: , , , IT
Defensive: , ,
: Thomson Reuters,
Cyclical: , , , IT
Defensive: , ,
: Thomson Reuters,
( )
Buy: ,, Cyclical sector
Sell: ,
Buy: , Yield asset
(B) Deflationary Boom
(- but )
( )
Buy: Platform ,
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
()
+2SD
+1SD
-1SD
()
+2SD
+1SD
-1SD
-2SD
(6.00)
(4.00)
(2.00)
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
Expansion
()
Inflationary
Boom
()
(2) vs.
() deflationary boom
. inflationary boom ,
(). ,
.
.
.
2014 .
3 , ,
.
.
.
, . ,
decoupling coupling
.
.
.
. 2008 ,
M&A
.
.
2015
.
, 1) , 2)
, 3)
.
,
.1
/
. vs.
, .
.
coupling . /
outperform .
1 2015 ( , 2014 10 31)
2014
,
8
vs.
: '+ '
: Thomson Reuters,
: MSCI
: Thomson Reuters,
GDP
: 2010~14
: CEIC,
*, GDP *, GDP
: * 20
: CEIC, Thomson Reuters,
: * 16
: CEIC, Thomson Reuters,
8.6 9.4 5.2 7.8 10.9 6.6
11.8 8.9
13.1 17.1
21.0 28.2
(%)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
(, %)
(6.0)
(4.0)
(2.0)
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
(6.0)
(4.0)
(2.0)
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
(, %) (, %)
9
EPS * EPS*
: * 12 EPS
: Thomson Reuters,
: Thomson Reuters,
dashboard
Total return (%) P/E () P/B () ROE (%) EPS growth (%)
1 YTD 2013 z-score z-score z-score 1m 3m (%)
(0.8) 5.2 29.6 14.6 0.9 1.9 0.3 13.2 (0.4) 10.2 (0.1) (0.7) 2.7
1.6 8.9 3.8 11.0 0.2 1.4 (0.9) 12.5 (1.6) 9.9 (0.5) (1.9) 3.0
6.3 9.0 4.0 9.2 (0.8) 1.3 (1.0) 14.1 (1.6) 9.9 (0.2) (0.8) 3.4
4.6 22.5 8.6 16.1 0.4 2.5 (0.2) 15.6 (0.9) 14.9 0.0 (0.3) 1.6
1.6 1.6 2.7 10.0 0.3 1.0 (1.2) 10.3 (2.0) 13.9 (2.8) (8.6) 1.3
(2.7) 13.5 12.7 13.4 (0.1) 1.7 (0.1) 12.9 (0.1) 11.8 2.3 4.5 3.4
0.9 27.1 (2.9) 14.6 1.1 3.0 0.1 20.3 (1.7) 12.0 (0.3) (0.6) 2.7
(1.0) 0.5 15.3 15.5 1.1 2.0 0.3 12.7 (0.9) 7.6 (0.8) (2.0) 3.1
1.8 20.2 (8.0) 12.9 1.9 2.0 0.6 15.2 (1.0) 12.0 (0.5) (0.7) 3.4
2.8 21.8 5.9 18.5 1.6 2.7 1.0 14.4 (0.4) 12.0 (0.7) (0.5) 2.1
1.9 10.7 (3.0) 10.9 0.8 1.3 (0.9) 12.0 (1.0) 10.3 (2.1) (4.9) 4.0
2.0 5.8 1.1 18.9 2.1 2.7 0.1 14.0 (1.1) 11.1 (0.1) (0.8) 1.6
(3.6) (4.6) 7.5 4.1 (1.2) 0.5 (1.2) 11.0 (1.3) (1.4) 0.9 1.0 6.3
1.2 4.6 1.0 13.0 0.7 1.2 (0.8) 9.5 (1.4) 4.9 (0.1) (0.8) 4.4
0.7 13.9 16.3 14.5 2.3 2.4 1.2 16.4 (0.3) 14.2 (0.0) 0.4 3.3
: MSCI , 12
: Thomson Reuters,
: * 20, 16
: Thomson Reuters,
(Pts) (%pts)
EM vs DM ()
(10)
(8)
(6)
(4)
(2)
0
2
4
6
8
10
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
(Pts) (%pts)
EM vs DM EPS ()
(40)
(30)
(20)
(10)
0
10
20
30
40
50
(4)
(3)
(2)
(1)
0
1
2
3
4
5
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
() ()
(, %) (, %)
(3) vs.
2014 ' '
.
.
, , ,
, .
, .
2 Policy mix .
→ →
. . 2013
73.3%.
2.
.
.
,
. ,
. ,
.
, 2015
.
2015 2.0%
. 9.1
.
,
. 2013 , 2014
, 2015 ,
.
2015 ,
.
allocation .
' ', ' '
. ,
,
. 2014 .
' ' ''
. 2011
.
.
,
. ,
.
.
2 (31.5%), (40.9%), (50.1%), (58.3%)
2014
,
: (, ), /
: (, )
: KB, CEIC, : KRX, CEIC,
M1( ) L( )
: , : , ,
(30)
(20)
(10)
0
10
20
30
40
96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
apt
96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
() KOSPI ()
(%)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
()
(20)
(15)
(10)
(5)
0
5
10
15
20
25
L( ) M1( )
12
(2011 8 2014 8) (2011 8 2014 8)
: , , : , ,
2015
1 2 3 4 (E)
(3.0) (1.4) 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 1.1 2.0
3.1 2.4 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 2.6 1.0
() 3.5 5.7 1.4 0.7 0.7 0.6 3.5 3.5
: KB
: (2015 , )
APT
: KB
: KB,
: KB,
(%)
(, %)
(4) vs.
'' .
, Agenda .
8 6 201 '3 '
.
. .
KRX 2013 23.6%
(1 238 ) . 2011~13 1.3%
, 1 30,928. 3 '
' (14%→9%) 1 1,701
.
, .
. '
, , '
. 3,
.
.
.
,
.
.
1 .
.
.
.
- ( 5 )
- /,
2014 1
- 15% ,
30%( 20%) '3%
- ,
,
-
-
-
2015~17
-
(2015~16 )
10%
-
: ,
3
2014. 11. 17
Samsung Market Strategy
Earnings reality
(1) 2015
2012 .
,
. ,
. 2011~13 , , , ,
. .
,
.
2015 ,
. ,
. 2011 .
. 2011~13 , ,
IT .
.
input cost .
2010~11 CAPEX
.
. ,
(, )
.
.
.
, .
, . MSCI Korea
2011 3 2014
, 2015 .
2014 (EPS)
. .
, .
(, ) 2015
, .
. 2013 ,
2014 .
re-building .
. 2015
, .
IV. p24
V. p31
VI. (, , ) p44
VII. Top picks p56
2015 ,
,
2014. 11. 17
Samsung Market Strategy
15
( )
: MSCI Korea
: WiseFn,
2012: / 2013: /
: MSCI Korea
: WiseFn,
2014: 2015:
: MSCI Korea
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2009 2010 2011
2012 2013 2014
(: = 100)
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2009 2010 2011
2012 2013 2014
(: = 100)
(5) 0 5
2011 2012
()
10 12 14 16 18
/
2013 2014
()
/
2012 2013
()
0 5
IT
2014 2015
()
16
MSCI Korea: MSCI Korea:
: WiseFn, : WiseFn,
CRB CAPEX
: MSCI Korea
: WiseFn,
PMI PMI MSCI Korea 12 EPS
: Bloomberg, : Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg,
19 20 17 30
(%)
() PMI()
(, %) ()
EPS () PMI()
CRB
Capex
(%)
2015
. ,
. 2 .
2 2015 .
, 'nutcracker'
.
2013~14 ,
.
10 2008~09, 2012~13
.
.
.
MSCI Korea
. ( )
8%( 11%) .
.
.
- .
.
. IT
. ,
.
.
2015 .
MSCI Korea 2015 ( , )
() (, %) (, %) (, %)
1,054,789 (0.65) 55,345 (13.25) 51,801 (1.35)
181,635 (11.29) 18,164 (26.06) 17,190 (22.46)
199,636 4.08 11,395 (26.70) 17,272 5.54
673,518 1.26 25,787 8.86 17,339 24.06
186,139 1.88 18,876 41.14 13,810 94.27
84,785 13.78 16,881 15.03 13,169 3.88
285,435 (0.45) 9,972 (3.04) 4,176 0.00
MSCI Korea 1,611,148 5.20 101,075 (1.04) 82,956 8.48
: 2014 11 7 ,
: Thomson Reuters,
,
2014. 11. 17
Samsung Market Strategy
1:
MSCI Korea 2015 3~4% (
, 11 7 ). 2000 CAGR 12.8%
2 .
2013 .
, 2015 10%
( 4.8% ) . (
) MSCI Korea +3.9% -0.1% .
(* , )
() 2013 2014(E) 2015(E)
MSCI Korea* MSCI Korea 1,534,926 2.65 1,531,567 (0.22) 1,576,842 3.2
1,306,234 0.93 1,326,817 1.58 1,384,647 4.4
+ 1,117,779 (0.08) 1,135,011 1.54 1,183,573 4.3
IT 355,798 10.31 336,809 (3.09) 334,136 0.1
() 228,693 13.72 204,750 (7.36) 192,195 (4.8)
() 5,370 12.02 6,157 15.37 7,217 17.2
48,702 8.63 49,761 2.95 52,691 5.9
188,455 7.39 191,806 2.23 201,073 5.2
32,351 4.20 35,284 3.79 38,560 9.3
1,170 (0.65) - 6.14 0 -
83,220 1.54 87,276 6.88 92,966 6.5
24,215 8.66 24,387 (1.09) 25,359 4.0
/ 115,259 (1.73) 112,833 0.09 117,131 3.8
84,261 (4.76) 90,789 7.31 93,719 3.2
65,157 (1.02) 62,826 (0.99) 64,721 3.0
107,411 (6.23) 105,176 0.85 103,368 (1.7)
92,101 (8.32) 95,269 0.43 97,689 2.5
51,863 8.06 52,157 3.99 53,298 2.2
283,021 (2.38) 286,728 1.15 302,132 5.4
(* , )
2015 ()
05 13~14 * (y/y, %) (y/y, %)
MSCI Korea* MSCI Korea (0.5) 1.1 1,576,842 3.2 1,526,363 (0.1)
0.6 1.2 1,384,647 4.4 1,344,728 1.4
+ (0.1) 0.7 1,183,573 4.3 1,145,092 0.9
IT IT (6.2) 2.1 334,136 0.1 323,576 (3.1)
() (11.8) 1.0 192,195 (4.8) 181,635 (10.0) -10%
() 8.2 13.3 7,217 17.2 6,979 13.3 13~14
2.2 5.4 52,691 5.9 52,449 5.4 13~14
1.5 4.4 201,073 5.2 199,636 4.4 13~14
2.8 7.9 38,560 9.3 38,073 7.9 13~14
- (48.1) 0 - 0 - 13~14
1.4 3.2 92,966 6.5 90,078 3.2 13~14
(15.4) 1.4 25,359 4.0 24,727 1.4 13~14
/ (2.1) (2.0) 117,131 3.8 110,631 (2.0) 13~14
(13.8) 1.6 93,719 3.2 92,273 1.6 13~14
(3.6) (1.4) 64,721 3.0 61,962 (1.4) 13~14
(21.9) (5.4) 103,368 (1.7) 99,457 (5.4) 13~14
(2.9) 6.2 97,689 2.5 95,269 0.0 15 0
0.6 1.2 53,298 2.2 52,797 1.2 13~14
(26.6) (0.5) 302,132 5.4 285,435 (0.5) 13~14
: * , ( )
: WiseFn,
2014. 11. 17
Samsung Market Strategy
2:
2012~14 6% . 10 2005,
06, 07 2010 7~8% ,
/ 1,150 .
,
7% . 1%pt
. 2008, 09, 12, 13
(
+18.4%, +24.8%) -3.0%, +11.3% .
(* , )
() 2013 2014(E) 2015(E)
MSCI Korea* MSCI Korea 95,645 6.2 86,838 5.7 102,784 6.5
58,860 4.5 62,685 4.8 81,932 5.9
+ 42,519 3.8 47,347 4.2 65,556 5.6
IT 44,263 12.4 34,088 10.2 32,737 9.8
() 36,785 16.1 24,153 12.0 20,852 10.8
() 955 17.8 1,319 21.4 1,697 23.5
3,647 7.5 3,642 7.3 4,030 7.6
16,341 8.7 15,338 8.0 16,375 8.1
3,206 5.0 3,916 11.1 4,569 11.8
162 4.2 0 - 0 -
(1,090) (1.3) 2,637 3.0 3,623 3.9
(348) (2.8) 269 1.1 593 2.3
/ 3,210 2.6 (1,623) (1.4) 3,443 2.9
6,100 7.2 6,905 7.6 7,872 8.4
1,205 2.5 1,348 2.1 1,791 2.8
2,301 2.6 576 0.5 2,127 2.1
3,007 7.4 7,137 7.5 7,994 8.2
3,393 3.1 2,322 4.5 4,319 8.1
10,249 3.6 10,285 3.6 13,309 4.4
(* , )
2008, 09, 12, 13** 2015 ()
15E * (y/y, %) (y/y, %)
MSCI Korea* MSCI Korea 6.4 6.1 6.5 102,784 18.4 84,193 (3.0)
5.6 4.5 5.9 81,932 30.7 66,030 5.3
+ 5.3 3.8 5.6 65,556 38.5 54,635 15.4
IT IT 8.3 4.2 9.4 32,737 (4.0) 25,330 (25.7) ***
() 10.8 5.7 10.1 20,852 (13.7) 18,164 (24.8) 10% ( 10.8%)
() 21.9 17.8 23.7 1,697 28.6 1,528 15.8 4
9.2 7.5 7.6 4,030 10.7 3,928 7.9 4
7.8 5.7 8.1 16,375 6.8 11,395 (25.7) 4
13.9 9.9 11.8 4,569 16.7 5,274 34.7 4
17.0 13.8 - 0 - - -
3.3 (1.3) 4.0 3,623 37.4 2,961 12.3 4
(0.7) (2.4) 2.4 593 120.4 578 114.9 15
/ 6.1 2.8 3.0 3,443 (312.1) 3,081 (289.8) 4
12.5 7.2 8.4 7,872 14.0 6,680 (3.2) 4
3.0 1.3 2.8 1,791 32.9 790 (41.4) 4
3.2 2.1 2.1 2,127 269.2 2,131 269.8 4
(0.3) (5.5) 8.1 7,994 12.0 7,796 9.2 15
8.7 6.0 8.1 4,319 86.0 4,278 84.2 15
5.6 3.5 4.4 13,309 29.4 9,972 (3.0) 4
: * , ( ), ** 4, ***
: WiseFn,
2014. 11. 17
Samsung Market Strategy
() 2013 2014(E) 2015(E)
MSCI Korea* MSCI Korea 65,102 4.2 62,723 4.1 78,290 5.0
35,280 2.7 41,906 3.2 60,101 4.3
+ 18,048 1.6 25,261 2.2 42,705 3.6
IT 36,151 10.2 27,940 8.4 27,253 8.2
() 29,821 13.0 20,817 10.3 18,189 9.5
() 2,245 41.8 1,190 19.3 1,533 21.2
2,255 4.6 2,356 4.7 2,666 5.1
17,232 9.1 16,645 8.7 17,397 8.7
1,751 5.4 2,306 6.5 2,753 7.1
189 16.1 100 - 121 -
273 0.3 1,492 1.7 2,482 2.7
(1,741) (7.2) (191) (0.8) (15) (0.1)
/ (921) (0.8) (1,531) (1.4) 1,679 1.4
910 1.1 3,765 4.1 5,093 5.4
3,782 5.8 778 1.2 1,107 1.7
55 0.1 184 0.2 1,487 1.4
1,377 1.5 3,345 3.5 7,132 7.3
(141) (0.3) 1,358 2.6 3,163 5.9
1,756 0.6 4,176 1.5 5,972 2.0
(* , )
2012, 13, 14** 2015 ()
15E * (y/y, %) (y/y, %)
MSCI Korea* MSCI Korea 4.2 4.2 5.0 78,290 24.8 69,787 11.3
3.0 2.7 4.3 60,101 43.4 52,597 25.5
+ 2.0 1.6 3.6 42,705 69.1 35,325 39.8
IT IT 8.9 8.2 8.2 27,253 (2.5) 29,596 5.9 4 ***
() 11.6 10.3 9.5 18,189 (12.6) 17,190 (17.4) 4
() 27.7 19.2 21.3 1,533 28.9 1,348 13.3 4
4.9 4.6 5.1 2,666 13.1 2,428 3.1 4
9.2 8.7 8.7 17,397 4.5 17,272 3.8 4
6.3 5.4 7.2 2,753 19.4 2,383 3.3 3
- - - 121 20.4 100 - 2014
0.7 (2.1) 2.7 2,482 66.4 1,492 0.0 4
(2.6) (3.8) (0.1) (15) (92.4) (191) 0.0 3
/ 0.5 (1.4) 1.4 1,679 (209.6) (1,501) - 4
4.9 4.1 5.4 5,093 35.3 3,827 1.6 4
0.8 0.1 1.7 1,107 42.3 52 (93.3) 4
1.1 0.2 1.4 1,487 709.0 174 (5.4) 4
0.0 (3.3) 7.3 7,132 113.2 7,132 113.2 4
3.4 2.6 5.9 3,163 132.9 2,846 109.6 2014
1.3 0.8 2.0 5,972 43.0 4,176 0.0 4
: * , ( ), ** 3 15 , ***
: WiseFn,
(1) KOSPI : 1,900~2,250pt
.
,
.
.
.
2011 2014 11 KOSPI 4
11.3 12.4 pricing .
.
backward looking
. ,
. .
4 P/E pricing ,
KOSPI 1,900~2,250pt(1,921~2,257pt) .
. 4 2011
. P/E 10.1 .
KOSPI 1,715pt .
11 7 12 P/B 0.84 . 2013
P/E 14.1 ,
KOSPI 2,390pt
P/E
P/E 2011 2012 2013 2014* 4
MSCI Korea
11.8 12.0 13.3 12.6 12.4
12.0 13.4 17.2 14.1 14.2
: * 11 7
2015 KOSPI
* **
Panic 1,891 1,715
2,118 1,921
2,488 2,257
Bubble 2,635 2,390
: * 17~20 ( , ), ** 2
:
4 MSCI Korea KOSPI . MSCI Korea KOSPI 83%
, 2013 KOSPI 105% .
& pricing
1,700~2,400pt
2014. 11. 17
Samsung Market Strategy
(2) ()
2 .
,
. 1 . 2014
3~4 . 1
(BOJ, ECB) .
. 1 2
.
2015 KSOPI 1,900pt
. ,
, , re-
building .
- ,
.
.
KOSPI P/E KOSPI P/E
: MSCI Korea
: WiseFn,
: WiseFn,
MSCI Korea: MSCI Korea:
: WiseFn, : WiseFn,
2015 2
(20)
(15)
(10)
(5)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
23
KOSPI : 12 P/E KOSPI : 12 P/B
: Thomson Reuters, : Thomson Reuters,
MSCI Korea: 12 P/E MSCI Korea: 12 P/B
: Thomson Reuters, : Thomson Reuters,
MSCI Korea: 12 P/E MSCI Korea: 12 P/B
: Thomson Reuters, : Thomson Reuters,
14.6
6.5
12.9
10.6
7.8
10.9
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
()
+2SD
-1SD
-2SD
+1SD
1.8
0.8
1.4
0.9
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.9
()
+1SD
+2SD
-1SD
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
2015 ( rotation) .
2014 (expansion),
deflationary boom . 2013~14
(recovery) (expansion) .
2015 ? 2014 ,
(expansion) . Top down
, .
, inflationary
boom ' ' .
.
.
cyclical .
Top down
. cyclical 2015
, 2014
. '5'
'' .
6. 2015
.
(cyclical ) .
, Top down()
, , , , Overweight .
, . , , ,
, , Underweight .
. IT
Neutral . ,
.
5 ,
. 6 , . Fed
. , ,
. ,
, inflationary boom .
IV. p24
V. p31
VI. (, , ) p44
VII. Top picks p56
?
,
2014. 11. 17
Samsung Market Strategy
Macro Historical Earning Model views*
view valuation Momentum Score Views
+ - + + 0.7 ++ , Overweight
+ + 0.6 ++ Overweight
- + (0.1) Overweight
/ 0.0 , Market weight
+ - 0.0 Market weight
IT ++ - - 0.0 rebuilding Market weight
- - + (0.3) Market weight
- (0.3) Market weight
- - - (1.0) - - Market weight
0.0 Underweight
- - + (0.4) - Underweight
- (0.4) - Underweight
() - - - (1.0) - - Underweight
- - - (1.1) - - Underweight
:
DRAM 1) 2) Capacity , 3) 3 Capa
trend .
NAND SSD
, TSMC 100% , LTE ,
AP 1xnm FinFET .
TV UHD TV .
1) 4Q14 15 , 2) Cannibalization
PC PC , YoY .
Tech , (Capex) . Capa
, Fab YoY , .
, 14 TV 15 .
Android . .
Sell-in .
, .
2nd-tier .
2014 , 2015
, - 10 ,
,
.
2014 . 100
.
2015 1 NCC 2016 NCC . 2015
.
2014 4 restocking 2015 2014
.
: 1) , 2) .
2014 , 2015 .
2014 , PX oversupply PX .
14 3 4
15 .
. 14
, 15 .
, 14 .
/civil .
2014. 11. 17
Samsung Market Strategy
2015 3.4%YoY 90 .
. ,
.
SUV 2015 . Global Insight , SUV
2013-6 6.5% 3% . , ,
. SUV 14 15 SUV
.
.
06~07 .
2014 Top-line , ,
. ASP Q .
,
.
2014-8 7% , Downstream
Sales infra .
2014-8 12% .
Capex 2016 9 ,
.
1 . ,
.
.
2014 ,
, , (commodity)
//
company specific .
Neutral (>>)
: .
.
TPL TPL
.
: 2015 , 2015
yield trading
.
: 2014 2015
. , ,
.
Overweight
,
outperform . valuation
.
2015<2014 . 2014
2015
, /
2015 2.9% .
,
.
,
.
,
,
.
,
.
, ,
, , .
2014. 11. 17
Samsung Market Strategy
, ,
, . FIT ,
, ,
. , ,
VIP
. GKL VIP Mass ,
,
NIM
.
NPL ,
credit cost .
6.4% , ROE 7.4% (vs 2014E: 6.7%) .
( )
, Bottom-line
,
6
14 15
14
/
, , , ,
, SNS
,
,
ARPU 14 LTE 64%, 89%
. ARPU
.
LTE .
5G 20 15 LTE CAPEX .
15 LTE, ,
.
2013 ,
.
2015 (ESS, ) ,
.
valuation ,
/
B2B .
B2C IKEA
.
:
28
(Top down )
*
Expansion Downturn Slowdown Recovery Expansion Downturn Slowdown Recovery
MSCI Korea 1.61 0.59 (1.45) 4.29
1.50 0.82 (0.79) (1.88) + - - -
1.27 0.39 1.23 0.63 + - - +
0.13 1.13 (0.34) (0.51) +
/ 2.68 0.74 (1.11) (2.04) + +
1.38 1.47 2.57 (1.92) + + +
0.65 0.43 (2.17) 1.62 - - +
0.75 0.86 1.59 1.55 + +
0.60 0.84 1.35 2.30 +
/ (0.85) 0.01 0.86 3.23 - - - - - + +
(0.87) 1.58 1.09 (1.42) - + - -
0.86 2.36 2.61 (0.01) + + +
1.36 1.65 (0.49) (2.98) + + - -
(0.08) 0.07 (1.62) 1.60 - - - +
0.42 0.61 0.95 (0.32) -
0.25 0.61 0.28 (1.29) - -
IT IT (0.52) (0.73) 1.70 1.67 - - - + +
2.33 0.37 4.20 (1.55) + + + +
(1.34) (0.82) 0.60 (3.00) - - - - -
(1.38) 0.31 0.63 (1.82) - - - -
0.48 0.67 0.69 (0.32)
1.14 0.78 1.56 1.88
: * 2001 1~2014 8 MSCI
: Thomson Reuters,
OECD *
: Thomson Reuters, : * - --
: Thomson Reuters,
EPS
: 10
: Thomson Reuters,
: Thomson Reuters,
2013~14 MSCI Korea 2015 ( )
: Thomson Reuters, : WiseFn,
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
()
Model MSCI Korea
(: 2001 1=100)
(2.5) (2.0) (1.5) (1.0) (0.5) 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
(%)
(2) Top 10 picks
2015 top picks 2 . 'top 10
picks'. . top picks 4
.
, . , , .
, .
, . , , GKL, .
. , .
, 2015 . , , .
, .
( 3) .
, . SK
, .
56 .
, ,
4 .
. .
Top 10 picks
() 15 (, %)
() P/E P/B EV/EBITDA EPS ROE
A005930 1,200,000 1,650,000 176.8 11.5 1.1 3.6 (12.6) 10.6
A032830 120,000 140,000 24.0 23.7 1.1 n/a (23.3) 0.0
A012330 237,000 330,000 23.1 6.0 0.9 5.3 6.3 15.2
SK A017670 274,500 340,000 22.2 9.4 1.7 4.1 28.8 15.7
A090430 2,275,000 3,330,000 13.3 25.5 4.1 14.4 35.6 17.7
A000830 75,400 92,000 11.8 19.6 1.1 12.7 29.7 5.3
A035720 142,500 200,000 8.1 28.0 9.7 18.9 190.4 24.8
GKL A114090 39,900 62,000 2.5 16.0 4.9 9.5 34.6 32.2
A005440 17,600 22,000 1.7 16.9 1.0 8.5 8.5 6.6
* A192520 13,050 n/a 1.0 6.2 0.5 n/a n/a 7.7
: ; 11 13 ; *
: WiseFn,
2014. 11. 17
Samsung Market Strategy
V.
4 ,
. . 2015
.
top picks
. 4.
, ,
. .
, .
.
, B2C
.
.
, . 1)
, 2)
.
() P/E P/B EV/EBITDA EPS ROE
CJ* A001040 170,000 n/a 4.9 18.6 1.3 5.2 32.4 7.9
A011210 182,500 260,000 4.7 9.9 1.6 5.7 13.5 16.9
A000240 21,450 30,000 2.0 10.5 0.8 7.6 1.0 7.6
* A086900 244,900 n/a 1.4 27.3 9.4 21.1 16.7 42.8
* A085660 14,150 n/a 0.7 23.5 2.4 n/a 39.9 10.0
* A015860 7,390 n/a 0.4 9.7 1.1 6.6 36.9 12.8
* A100120 32,200 n/a 0.3 18.0 3.6 11.2 40.3 21.8
A009240 121,000 140,000 2.8 28.8 5.4 18.4 19.6 26.3
* A171120 24,350 n/a 0.2 10.2 2.5 7.7 54.7 26.3
* A016100 22,950 n/a 0.4 10.6 3.8 3.9 105.3 46.4
: ; 11 13 ; *
: WiseFn,
IV. p24
V. p31
VI. (, , ) p44
VII. Top picks p56
2014. 11. 17
Samsung Market Strategy
(1) -
, .
.
. ' '
( )
( )
.
,
. ,
. -
,
.
. 3 track record
. , 1, 2
6 , , , , F&B, S&T,
GKL
.
( )
,
. ,
.
, .
,
. ,
. , keyword 1) 2)
.
,
.
50% ,
.
3
.
.
5%
, 5%
. ,
.
.
(%) 3 3
() (%) (%) 2014E 2015E (%) (%)
A011210 4,593 41.0 13.2 5.6 14.5 4.0 0.3
A097950 CJ 4,900 34.5 12.5 52.3 95.6 12.6 0.6
A001680 1,337 44.5 12.4 4.7 11.1 6.4 0.5
A005440 1,681 37.7 11.0 16.8 15.0 9.0 0.3
A035760 CJ 1,459 43.5 10.1 5.8 16.1 11.3 0.7
: ; 5
: WiseFn,
A049770 F&B 29.14 2.35 33.33
A003000 77.08 2.68 33.75
A064960 S&T 19.93 1.88 60.68
A000480 37.07 5.22 33.33
**
A034730 SK C&C 42.93 1.06 46.50
A018880 55.55 2.86 42.37
A001040 CJ 9.45 0.74 45.63
A047050 14.86 0.73 36.63
A114090 GKL 52.15 3.33 50.57
A007310 15.32 1.29 31.10
A105630 9.39 0.97 52.54
A108670 LG 22.02 1.23 80.00
A049770 F&B 29.14 2.35 33.33
A008490 64.85 1.06 36.28
A003000 77.08 2.68 33.75
A064960 S&T 19.93 1.88 60.68
A000480 37.07 5.22 33.33
: KOSPI200 , , IFRS-parent
100%
* : 3 · 1.2 , () 10%
** : 3 · 0.5 , () 30%
: , WiseFn,
34
3 () KOSPI 200 vs. KOSPI 200 14
: WiseFn, Bloomberg, : WiseFn,
* 3 vs.
: * KOSPI + KOSDAQ, (-) 100
: WiseFn,
* 3 vs. * vs. **:
: * 42
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
KOSPI 200 KOSPI 200
(: 14 = 100)
y = 0.0824x + 20.493
3 (%)
3 (%)
* **
1.
: ,
,
:
, ,
→ ,
3 , ,
: 2017 12 31
- ( ) 25%
2.
: 500 ,
: 2017 12 31
, , ,
10%, 2
A, B (, 3 ) -
- A ( ):
- B ( ):
2014. 11. 17
Samsung Market Strategy
(2) -
, ' ' .
,
. , 2013 2014
.
, 2014
.
.
. ,
(Biologics) .
, 5 6~8%
.
,
.
,
.
//
.
,
. BRICs
'' .
,
, .
' ' .
,
. inbound boom
,
. ,
,
.
,
. IMS
Health 10 ,
, ,
. , , ,
. 'Tech giant' '' ,
.
37
,
. 2010, 5
.
- , 2015
,
.
, 2015 ' '
.
. , , , ,
.
1) 10% ,
2) 15 3 Allergan
1) DBM 2) 2015
.
1) CHO
, 2)
FPD X-ray
X-ray
.
1)
, 2) 2015
:
() P/E P/B EV/EBITDA EPS ROE
A086900 244,900 n/a 1.4 27.3 9.4 21.1 16.7 42.8
A085660 14,150 n/a 0.7 23.5 2.4 n/a 39.9 10.0
A015860 7,390 n/a 0.4 9.7 1.1 6.6 36.9 12.8
A100120 32,200 n/a 0.3 18.0 3.6 11.2 40.3 21.8
A042520 16,850 n/a 0.2 30.1 4.2 n/a 29.3 15.6
: ; 11 13 ;
: WiseFn,
2014. 11. 17
Samsung Market Strategy
38
: vs. : vs.
: MSCI AC World
: Thomson Reuters,
: Kospi + Kosdaq
: WiseFn,
2013-2017
: IMS Health, Market Prognosis (Nov 2013), : * , , , ,
: IMS Health, Market Prognosis (Nov 2013),
(Biologics)
: IMS Health, Market Prognosis (Nov 2013), : 2013
: Espicom, Worldwide Medical Market Forecasts to 2018 (2013),
,
()
()
() (%)
(6)
(4)
(2)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
/ /
() (, %)
MSCI AC World MSCI AC World health care
(: 12 = 100)
39
: , : ,
: , : ,
5 2012
: , : ,
(5)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
(, %)
(5)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
(, %)
27%
16%
()
(3) () -
. ,
. 2
, . ,
.
.
/ . 9.1
40 30 ,
.
. 2015 / 31,629
.
.
. , B2B
,
. B2C IKEA
, . B2C
.
/ ,
.
.
2010 8% , 2015
28.4, 2020 41.5 . 1)
, 2)
, 3)
.
2004 2001 15
44% . 10%
. 2020
.
.
B2C
.
. B2C
, .
B2C B2C 70%
. 85.9%
.
.
: 2014 10 27
: 114
: 114
/
: CEIC,
: : 2013
: , ,
()
()
(4) 2 -
2014 . 1)
, 2) , 3)
. .
2
.
.
, .
.
.
.
.
12.5 , 3 CAGR 12.9% .
2005 7% .
.
. KOTRA IFEZ 2018
221 6 . 2013
271 82% .
. GKL
.
.
,
. 6 ,
1 . 5
1 . .
(C-BPI) Top 5
2011 51% 2013 57%
.
,
,
. peer .
.
. 2013
/ 73.1%, 40.8%, 32.7% .
/ 4 3
.
,
2014. 11. 17
Samsung Market Strategy
43
.
.
.
40%
10
, .
1 ,
.
. 1
, Top 5
1 .
: :
Top 5 : vs
: , LG :
:
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
() (%)
() (, %)
()
()
11 13 11 13 11 13 11 13 11 13
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
(1)
2015 1) , 2)
(Fed , ECB/BOJ
), 3) .
, 2015
. ,
.
2000
.
1) ( ), 2)
, 3) boom cycle
.
2015 3.3% 2014
2.2% , 2016 3%
. 1) , 2)
, 3)
. , 2015
.
0.5~0.7% GDP ,
→ → →
.
2014 0.8% 2015 1.2% ,
. 1) 2014 AQR/Stress
test , 2)
TLTRO ECB 2015
. 2010
, .
2015 7.2% 2014 .
,
(+)
. , 2013 3 2
.
7 2015 (2014 10 31 , )
IV. p24
V. p31
VI. (, , ) p44
VII. Top picks p56
,
, 7%
GDP (, %)
CPI (, %)
/ ()
WTI (/) 92 98 85 90 95
: * (2014 10 )
: , Consensus Economics
FX
Fed (10 QE3 ) (2015 6 )
(gradualism)
US: (2.2%)
EM:
US:
10 (3.0% → 2.3%)
flattening
steepening
DM: > >
US > EM > EZ/JP DM: US > EZ > JP
EM: >
2014. 11. 17
Samsung Market Strategy
(2)
2015 2014 3.5% 3.7%
. ,
, .
2014 3.0%
2.1% .
2014 .
.
4 2% . 2015
3% ,
.
.
, 1)
, 2) / , 3)
.
,
.
2014 4/4 , 2015 970
. 1)
2)
2015 1,000
.
. 2015 / 970 1980
1
.
(%pts)* 0.5 4.4 1.2 1.1 2.7 2.6 3.9 3.6
(%pts) 3.2 (1.4) 0.9 1.5 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.2
() 33.6 28.9 18.7 50.8 79.9 90.1 107.5 94.7
(GDP, %) 3.7 2.6 1.6 4.2 6.1 6.2 6.7 5.6
(BoP ) (15.9) 27.4 26.6 2.8 2.3 3.0 2.1 6.8
(BoP ) (24.9) 31.6 34.2 (0.7) (3.2) 0.4 (1.2) 10.1
2.8 3.0 4.0 2.2 1.3 1.3 1.5 2.0
(, %) 2.00 2.50 3.25 2.75 2.50 2.00 2.00 2.50
/ () 1,165 1,135 1,152 1,071 1,055 1,000 970 950
: *
,
(1)
2015 , risk-on
. 2009 ' ' ,
.
,
.
,
.
2015 2014 ,
. QE3 tapering
2013 , ,
. , 2013 ~2014 2,200
, 500 3
. , 2
.
, risk-off ,
. 3 -
, ECB BOJ .
, B/S
buffer .
, bottoming out
.
, 2014 3~9
,
.
.
, 2015
.
2015 ,
safe haven
. 1)
2)
. ,
, , ,
. ,
.
.
.
, 2015 ,
/
.
2014. 11. 17
Samsung Market Strategy
2015 .
,
'' . ,
MSCI (A)
.
2015
.
1990
, ,
. 2013~14
, 2015 ,
. 2013 'Fragile 5'
, .
2015
.
, 3 , 2011 3
59% . ,
. , 2013
3 56% ,
. /
25% ,
,
. , (GPIF)
,
.
,
. 2011
. , 2013
. , ,
. ,
bottoming out .
MSCI EM
(A) , .
.
,
.
A MSCI EM passive
. ,
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.
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)
.
,
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,
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,
. ,
.
.
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.
. KOSPI 2011 ,
' , ' . ,
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. 14 1,950
, 1,900
.
,
.
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.
,
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.
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: EPFR, : EPFR,
: Optimal control vs. Taylor rule (1999)
: Bloomberg, : Federal Reserve
(100)
(50)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
()
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
13 7 13 10 14 1 14 4 14 7 14 10
()
(60)
(50)
(40)
(30)
(20)
(10)
0
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()
0.0
0.5
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2.5
3.0
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(GDP , %)
51
vs. (2015 ) :
: IMF, CEIC, : ,
: ,
: Thomson Reuters,
(GDP , %)
(GDP , %)
()
(50)
(40)
(30)
(20)
(10)
0
10
20
30
()
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
(: 2011 = 100)
52
KOSPI: 14 () KOSPI: 2014
: KRX, : KRX,
:
DB
: ,
:
: ,
KOSPI vs. /
: KRX, : CMA, , MMF
: KRX,
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
()
36.3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
() (, )
06 6 08 6 10 6 12 6 14 6
()
(30)
(20)
(10)
0
10
20
30
(1)
2015 . , 2015 1 ,
4 16 ±15% ±30%
. ' '
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.
, .
,
, , , ,
. ,
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.
.8
9 1
. ,
, VI
.
'
' . ,
/ .
, ,
.
4(KOSDAQ 3) ,
.
, KOSPI
98 12(±12% → ±15%) . 99 IT
,
. KOSDAQ
.
KOSPI:
( , )
12 6 3 1 1 3 6 12
( 4.6%) → ±6% 95 4 1 748 800 548 486 363 354 517 477
±6% → ±8% 96 11 25 515 491 528 417 394 485 556 569
±8% → ±12% 98 3 2 645 644 810 903 643 470 442 833
±12% → ±15% 98 12 7 593 561 711 1,034 2,504 1,924 2,399 3,349
: KRX, FnGuide,
( , )
12 6 3 1 1 3 6 12
( 5.4%) → ±8% 96 11 1
±8% → ±12% 98 5 25 5.3 5.8 6.0 1.9 3.1 4.6 4.5 19.0
±12% → ±15% 05 3 28 791.1 967.3 1,454.5 1,287.9 986.9 1,379.6 1,544.7 1,981.0
: KRX, FnGuide,
±30%
,
. KOSPI,
KOSDAQ
,
.
.
/ ,
, Gibbs-sampling
9 15%
.
, KOSDAQ .
KOSPI KOSDAQ ,
/
. ,
0.9%, 8.9% 90%
, . ,
,
KOSDAQ .
. '±15%'
,
. -
,
.
,
.
KOSDAQ
. ,
. ,
,
.
9 , “KRX ” (2008 3)
55
KOSPI: vs KOSDAQ: vs
: KRX, FnGuide, : KRX, FnGuide,
KOSPI vs. KOSDAQ: / KOSPI: /
: KRX, FnGuide, : KRX, FnGuide,
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
() ()
( , %) (%)
() ()
( , %) (%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
KOSPI KOSDAQ
EPS (adj) () 171,683 117,600 102,421 105,736
EPS (adj) growth (%) 24.9 (31.5) (12.9) 3.2
EBITDA margin (%) 23.6 20.7 20.7 21.0
ROE (%) 22.4 13.1 10.4 9.9
P/E (adj) () 8.3 10.8 12.4 12.0
P/B () 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.0
EV/EBITDA () 3.5 3.9 3.9 3.6
Dividend yield (%) 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0
:
THE QUICK VIEW
: TV
, Deflation . LED
,
. HTC, Sony, Motorola,
Nokia , LG
.
2 , TV .
: .
.
, .
,
OLED .
.
, :
3D NAND Flexible OLED.
3D NAND PC . Flexible
OLED .
: 1 10 4
. 60
,
. , P/B 1
. 2005
multiple , sentiment . 160 .
WHAT’S THE STORY?
Event: HW .
Impact: ,
.
. 3D NAND Flexible
.
Valuation .
Action: 12 165 .
Company
Update
Analyst
[email protected]
(%) -1.0 -5.1 +5.1
KEY CHANGES
SAMSUNG vs THE STREET
Target price vs I/B/E/S mean 11.3%
Estimates up/down (4 weeks) 0/1
1-year-fwd EPS vs I/B/E/S mean -7.9%
Estimates up/down (4 weeks) 15/6
I/B/E/S recommendation Buy
2014. 11. 11
EPS (adj) () 35,147 37,240 39,489 42,738
EPS (adj) growth (%) (3.9) 6.0 6.0 8.2
EBITDA margin (%) 9.8 9.8 9.9 10.0
ROE (%) 18.2 16.8 15.1 14.0
P/E (adj) () 6.7 6.3 6.0 5.5
P/B () 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.7
EV/EBITDA () 5.6 5.2 5.2 4.6
Dividend yield (%) 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9
:
THE QUICK VIEW
: /
M/S . P/E Valuation
.
Long- short :
Action, : action
, .
: A/S .
: .
4 .
A/S: A/S , A/S
.
.
/ : / 2020 25%
. , , 3
. /
.
/ 7 2020 22 .
4 : , , ,
. 4 ASP 2 .
WHAT’S THE STORY?
Event: 3
Valuation De-rating
Impact: M/S 4Q13
.
. A/S A/S
A/S
Action:
Valuation Re-rating . 15 Top-picks
Company
Update
Analyst
[email protected]
(%) -5.4 -19.1 -23.7
KEY CHANGES
SAMSUNG vs THE STREET
Target price vs I/B/E/S mean 0.3%
Estimates up/down (4 weeks) 0/15
1-year-fwd EPS vs I/B/E/S mean 7.7%
Estimates up/down (4 weeks) 3/24
I/B/E/S recommendation Strong Buy
(%) 87.1 85.6 86.7 86.9
(%) 13.6 15.0 14.0 14.0
ROE(%) 3.0 6.7 4.8 4.8
P/E () 39.6 18.2 23.7 22.8
P/B () 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0
Dividend yield (%) 0.7 2.8 1.7 1.8
:
THE QUICK VIEW
: 3 63bp QoQ 2bp,
YoY 8bp . 2~3
.
, 1) 2~3 , 2)
. ,
AI .
: 3 80.4%
. 1) ,
2) TF , 3) 00
.
.
2 1 CEO
.
,
.
Capital management : 14
1.3 Upgrade .
, 1)
, 2)
. 30, 50, 70% ,
1.8%, 3.0%, 4.2% .
,
Capital management .
Sentiment : , 1)
, 2) , 3)
, .
WHAT’S THE STORY?
Event: .
Impact: ,
. .
Action: . Capital management ,
, .
, CFA
(%) +13.6 +29.3 +18.5
KEY CHANGES
Company
Visit
Target price vs I/B/E/S mean 2.9%
Estimates up/down (4 weeks) 11/0
1-year-fwd EPS vs I/B/E/S mean -1.8%
Estimates up/down (4 weeks) 5/1
I/B/E/S recommendation Hold
2014. 11. 11
EPS (adj) () 18,154 22,742 29,217 31,960
EPS (adj) growth (%) 43.3 25.3 28.5 9.4
EBITDA margin (%) 29.7 31.5 34.0 34.0
ROE (%) 11.9 12.4 14.7 14.5
P/E (adj) () 15.3 11.9 9.2 8.4
P/B () 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.4
EV/EBITDA () 5.5 4.8 4.0 3.5
Dividend yield (%) 4.6 3.4 3.8 3.8
:
THE QUICK VIEW
2015 : SK(SKT) 2
(2013 51%, 2014 21%) . LTE
1) LTE
ARPU , 2) SK . LTE
2015 top-line
.
: LTE SKT
.
SKT
, SKT
.
.
: 2012 LTE SKT
. ,
capacity capex
.
, 2015 9,400
.
top pick : SKT BUY
, 1)
, 2)
. 1)
, 2) SK .
WHAT’S THE STORY?
Event: SK 2015 .
Impact: ,
2015 .
Action: BUY , 34 top pick .
Company
Update
SK (%) -9.3 +30.8 +14.0
KEY CHANGES
SAMSUNG vs THE STREET
Target price vs I/B/E/S mean -2.9%
Estimates up/down (4 weeks) 1/1
1-year-fwd EPS vs I/B/E/S mean 2.2%
Estimates up/down (4 weeks) 7/3
I/B/E/S recommendation Buy
2014. 11. 11
EPS (adj) () 44,868 69,112 95,023 116,701
EPS (adj) growth (%) (0.3) 54.0 37.5 22.8
EBITDA margin (%) 15.9 20.5 21.6 22.0
ROE (%) 10.9 14.8 17.6 18.4
P/E (adj) () 52.8 34.3 24.9 20.3
P/B () 5.7 5.0 4.2 3.5
EV/EBITDA () 27.6 17.5 13.5 11.1
Dividend yield (%) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6
:
THE QUICK VIEW
: 2014 22% y-y, 56% , 99% y-y 11% 18% , 400% y-y +44% y-y ( 2014 +3%pts y-y 21%). 2015 . 2010~2012 2012 , , 2013 . best practice 2H14 3Q14 , 2015 . 2015 33% y-y , 9.9% . +2.3%pts y-y 23% +3.4%pts 13.5% . 2015 20% y-y, 33% .
: ASP , SNS . , /(%) . ( ), 2013 2015 .
: 2014 EPS 52% y-y 135% . 1) EPS 2016 15% 38% ( peer 2015 P/E 25 ), 2) , .
WHAT’S THE STORY?
Event: 2014 , key word 135% .
Impact: , 2015 , . 2013 . .
Action: 333 BUY . 40.5%.
SAMSUNG vs THE STREET
Target price vs I/B/E/S mean 16.1%
Estimates up/down (4 weeks) 11/0
1-year-fwd EPS vs I/B/E/S mean 16.8%
Estimates up/down (4 weeks) 15/1
I/B/E/S recommendation Buy
(%) +1.2 +67.9 +172.8
KEY CHANGES
Company
Update
EPS (adj) () 1,024 2,646 3,496 3,777
EPS (adj) growth (%) (45.8) 158.4 32.1 8.0
EBITDA margin (%) 2.5 3.4 3.6 3.7
ROE (%) 2.3 4.5 5.6 5.7
P/E (adj) () 59.3 28.6 21.7 20.0
P/B () 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1
EV/EBITDA () 17.5 13.5 12.2 11.2
Dividend yield (%) 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7
: ,
THE QUICK VIEW
2015 :
2015 , 2015 3 8,000
~1 (vs. 2014 6,000~9,000 ) .
,
.
2, ,
2015
, 2015 12% .
: 10
3 (Bell River Wind Project) PPA(Power Purchase Agreement)
1~3 2017 400~1,000
.
(2014 3 30 ),
(2015 ) (2015
) ,
.
SDS : 9 30 SDS
, SDS 7.88%
(6,099,604) 150,000~190,000 .
SDS 17.1% 2 , SDS 1 69,307
9,159 190,000 ,
2.5 NAV 11 .
11~12 NAV
. SOTP 92,000 BUY .
WHAT’S THE STORY?
Event: 2015 .
Impact: 1) 2015 8,000
~ 1 ; 2) 2,
2015 ; 3) ,
.
Action: 11~12
NAV . SOTP 92,000
BUY .
Target price vs WiseFn mean 2.0%
Estimates up/down (4 weeks) 2/1
1-year-fwd EPS vs WiseFn mean -5.6%
Estimates up/down (4 weeks) 0/16
WiseFn recommendation Buy
(%) +5.3 +13.8 +23.3
KEY CHANGES
EPS (adj) () 5,405 2,363 5,120 7,372
EPS (adj) growth (%) (9.8) (56.3) 116.7 44.0
EBITDA margin (%) 21.4 16.8 33.2 39.0
ROE (%) 12.3 5.9 24.5 29.0
P/E (adj) () 25.9 59.2 27.3 19.0
P/B () 4.1 12.9 9.5 6.7
EV/EBITDA () 53.5 60.9 67.3 68.4
Dividend yield (%) 1.4 1.0 1.3 1.5
:
THE QUICK VIEW
: . 2 , PC . , , .
: 2015 . , SNS . . 2013 24% 2015 30% .
-- : , , . 11 . , . .
: BUY 200,000 . 1) , 2) , 3) .
WHAT’S THE STORY?
Event: 2015 .
Impact: 1) , 2)
, 3) .
Action: BUY 200,000 .
Company
Update
Analyst
[email protected]
(%) 0.6 92.0 60.7
KEY CHANGES
SAMSUNG vs THE STREET
Target price vs I/B/E/S mean +8%
Estimates up/down (4 weeks) 1/4
1-year-fwd EPS vs I/B/E/S mean -17%
Estimates up/down (4 weeks) 2/2
I/B/E/S recommendation Buy
2014. 11. 11
EPS (adj) () 2,228 1,918 2,586 3,100
EPS (adj) growth (%) (4.5) (13.9) 34.8 19.9
EBITDA margin (%) 36.0 29.7 33.5 35.4
ROE (%) 37.8 28.2 34.3 34.5
P/E (adj) () 16.8 19.5 14.5 12.1
P/B () 5.8 5.2 4.3 3.6
EV/EBITDA () 9.4 11.5 8.2 6.4
Dividend yield (%) 3.2 2.9 3.5 3.7
:
THE QUICK VIEW
: 2015 1)
2) . COEX
. , COEX 10%
1 Mass VIP . ,
Mass .
2 COEX 50% 4
. , 400
. 2 .
: GKL
. ,
JV . ,
1) 4~5
, 2) , 3)
.
BUY 62,000 : COEX
50% 40% ( 60% )
, 2~3 20%p .
20% COEX 20%
. , ,
2 . 15%
ROIC , GKL 10% , P/E
10 2 ,
. 2014
3%,
.
WHAT’S THE STORY?
Event: COEX
Impact: 20% 2~3 20%
Action: BUY 62,000
Company
Update
Analyst
[email protected]
GKL (%) -7.4 -12.5 +5.2
KEY CHANGES
Target price vs I/B/E/S mean 16.7%
Estimates up/down (4 weeks) 0/2
1-year-fwd EPS vs I/B/E/S mean 10.7%
Estimates up/down (4 weeks) 1/5
I/B/E/S recommendation Buy
2014. 11. 11
EPS (adj) () 645 961 1,043 1,114
EPS (adj) growth (%) 0.5 49.2 8.5 6.7
EBITDA margin (%) 7.1 6.6 6.5 6.4
ROE (%) 6.7 6.5 6.6 6.6
P/E (adj) () 20.8 17.7 16.3 15.3
P/B () 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0
EV/EBITDA () 15.9 16.2 14.4 12.7
Dividend yield (%) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
:
THE QUICK VIEW
: (2014 4.3%, 2.1%). (12.9%) , 20% . H&S , 8% . , (2014 7.9%, 2015 8.0% ) .
: 1.5 1 ( 2,000, 3,000). . , ( ). 2012 250 2016 494 .
: 2014 , . M&A . .
: (12.4%) PER 11 PBR 1.1 Valuation . 8 . ( 90%) . BUY 22,000 .
WHAT’S THE STORY?
Event: , , , . 2015 8%, 8.8% .
Impact: 2014 . , .
Action: ( 90%) Valuation( PER 11, PBR 1.1) . BUY 22,000 .
Company
Update
Target price vs I/B/E/S mean -13.7%
Estimates up/down (4 weeks) 0/0
1-year-fwd EPS vs I/B/E/S mean -11.6%
Estimates up/down (4 weeks) 0/0
I/B/E/S recommendation Buy
(%) -15.2 -4.0 +0.6
KEY CHANGES
2014. 11. 11
() 144 196 181 130
(%) 2.87 2.81 2.43 2.23
(% y-y) 5.2 21.1 15.5 15.4
BIS (%) 14.1 13.3 13.3 13.7
Tier-1 (%) 9.7 9.2 8.7 9.7
(%) 1.4 1.2 0.9 1.9
P/E () - - - -
P/B () - - - -
: ,
THE QUICK VIEW
BS - :
BS , . , 1) BS
2) , 3)
ROE valuation
.
:
. ,
, ,
. 25.4% ,
.
NIM : NIM
. NIM 1)
pricing , 2) , 3)
.
Credit cost : credit cost .
,
.
, BS
.
: 1)
FY15E P/B 0.45 P/E 6.2 , 2)
BS , 3)
ROE .
WHAT’S THE STORY?
Event: 2015 top pick .
Impact: .
Action: 1) FY15E P/B 0.45 P/E 6.2
, 2) BS
, 3) ROE .
Company
Update
Analyst
[email protected]
(%) 3.6 - -
KEY CHANGES
- 11 14 , , .
- 11 14 6 , M&A .
- 11 14 3 .
- 11 14 1% .
- 11 14 .
- 3 .
- .
- .
- , , , , .
- ,
. .
2
12 11 13 5 13 11 14 5 14 11
()
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
12 11 13 5 13 11 14 5 14 11
()
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
12 11 13 5 13 11 14 5 14 11
()
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
12 11 13 5 13 11 14 5 14 11
()
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
12 11 13 5 13 11 14 5 14 11
()
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
12 11 13 5 13 11 14 5 14 11
()
12 11 13 5 13 11 14 5 14 11
()
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
12 11 13 5 13 11 14 5 14 11
()
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
12 11 13 5 13 11 14 5 14 11
()
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY
TP () 70,000 72,000 80,000 88,000 94,000 92,000
BUY BUY BUY
BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY
TP () 1,550,000 1,700,000 1,900,000 1,800,000 1,650,000
BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY
TP () 370,000 350,000 295,000 380,000 360,000 330,000 330,000
SK
BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY
TP () 180,000 200,000 210,000 270,000 280,000 300,000 340,000
BUY BUY BUY
BUY BUY BUY BUY HOLD BUY
TP () 126,000 112,000 106,000 102,000 83,000 200,000
2012/11/23 2013/1/17 2/8 5/9 10/6 2014/2/7 4/13 5/9 7/10 8/13 10/9 11/11
BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY
TP () 1,360,000 1,290,000 1,200,000 1,120,000 1,080,000 1,263,000 1,630,000 1,710,000 1,932,000 2,640,000 3,130,000 3,330,000
GKL
2012/11/23 2013/1/10 4/29 11/4 11/14 2014/1/29 3/19 5/2
BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY
TP () 37,000 40,000 43,000 45,000 47,000 54,000 61,000 62,000
TP () Not Rated
: .
BUY () 12 30%
BUY () 12 10% ~ 30%
HOLD () 12 -10%~ 10%
SELL () 12 -10% ~-30%
SELL () 12 -30%
OVERWEIGHT() 12 5%
NEUTRAL() 12 (± 5%)
