Sales forecast Spreadsheet

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Monte Carlo Simulation Example © 2004 Vertex42 LLC Sales Forecast Model Nominal Min Max Stochastic 1500 1200 1800 1744.783985 $0.50 $0.20 $0.80 $0.80 3.0% 1.0% 5.0% 3.135% $50.00 $47.00 $53.00 $50.39 $800.00 Deterministic Stochastic $2,250.00 $2,756.14 $1,550.00 $2,193.23 $700.00 $562.91 See MCsim Worksheet Summary Statistics Quartiles 5000 Min: -$1,305.92 Q(0.25): -$24.31 MEAN: $724.91 Median: $712.66 STDEV: $930.93 Q(0.75): $1,432.60 Mean Standard Error: $13.17 Max: $3,229.66 90% Central Interval Q(0.05): -$708.58 Q(0.95): $2,243.94 95% Central Interval Q(0.025): -$880.17 Q(0.975): $2,447.25 Pr(y > 0): 74.1% See the Monte Carlo Simulation article on Vertex42.com Input Values (input) Leads per Month (L) Cost Per Lead (C) Conversion Rate (R) Profit per Sale (P) Overhead per Month (H) Results (calculations) Monthly Income: Monthly Expenses: Projected Monthly Profit: Monte Carlo Simulation (Summary Report) Sample Size (n): Prob(Profit > 0) Press F9 to Re- Calculate - 2 0 0 0 - 1 8 5 0 - 1 7 0 0 - 1 5 5 0 - 1 4 0 0 - 1 2 5 0 - 1 1 0 0 - 9 5 0 - 8 0 0 - 6 5 0 - 5 0 0 - 3 5 0 - 2 0 0 - 5 0 1 0 0 2 5 0 4 0 0 5 5 0 7 0 0 8 5 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 5 0 1 3 0 0 1 4 5 0 1 6 0 0 1 7 5 0 1 9 0 0 2 0 5 0 2 2 0 0 2 3 5 0 2 5 0 0 2 6 5 0 2 8 0 0 2 9 5 0 3 1 0 0 3 2 5 0 3 4 0 0 3 5 5 0 3 7 0 0 3 8 5 0 4 0 0 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 Histogram of Monte Carlo Simulation Results Bins Count Cumulative Probability

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Forecast sales by various method

Transcript of Sales forecast Spreadsheet

Monte Carlo Simulation - Sales Forecast Example

ModelMonte Carlo Simulation ExampleSee the Monte Carlo Simulation article on Vertex42.com 2004 Vertex42 LLCSales Forecast ModelInput Values (input)NominalMinMaxStochasticLeads per Month (L)1500120018001617.9240661233Cost Per Lead (C)$0.50$0.20$0.80$0.73Conversion Rate (R)3.0%1.0%5.0%1.728%Profit per Sale (P)$50.00$47.00$53.00$51.67Overhead per Month (H)$800.00Results (calculations)DeterministicStochasticMonthly Income:$2,250.00$1,444.28Monthly Expenses:$1,550.00$1,983.02Projected Monthly Profit:$700.00-$538.74Monte Carlo Simulation (Summary Report)See MCsim WorksheetSummary StatisticsQuartilesSample Size (n):5000Min:-$1,285.11Q(0.25):-$19.36MEAN:$734.10Median:$732.27STDEV:$933.44Q(0.75):$1,474.61Mean Standard Error:$13.20Max:$3,377.7490% Central IntervalQ(0.05):-$729.64Q(0.95):$2,238.8395% Central IntervalQ(0.025):-$906.02Q(0.975):$2,453.21Prob(Profit > 0)Pr(y > 0):74.4%

Press F9 to Re-CalculateINSTRUCTIONS:

Fill in the yellow input fields - read the comments if needed - include your uncertainty (max and min)Press F9 to re-calculate the stochastic model

Model000000000040.0008280.0064590.01821060.03941520.06981870.10722430.15582550.20682840.26362210.30782530.35842410.40662450.45562740.51042560.56162840.61842380.6662640.71882480.76842280.8142130.85661780.89221390.921360.9472900.9652720.9796520.99250.995130.997670.999510101010101

BarChartCumulativeBinsCountCumulative ProbabilityHistogram of Monte Carlo Simulation Results

MCsimL (rand)C (rand)R (rand)P (rand)H (const)ProfitHistogram PlotSummary Statistics1653.339310454$0.394.882%$48.78$800.00$2,490.641256.5997974885$0.523.493%$51.45$800.00$801.41Min:-2000Sample Size (N):5000Confidence Interval for the Mean1559.5208139715$0.392.826%$50.83$800.00$829.31Max:40001674.3140430822$0.303.066%$48.25$800.00$1,174.70N:5000Central Tendancy (Location)% Confidence:95%1705.4986616804$0.361.964%$51.40$800.00$301.95Significance Level (a):0.051423.9691307708$0.261.667%$50.26$800.00$27.37BinsCountScaledTotalMean:$734.10Median:$732.271231.6270415913$0.461.931%$47.41$800.00($236.07)-2000000StErr:$13.20Upper Confidence Limit$708.231536.8337586154$0.761.466%$52.35$800.00($790.93)-1850000Lower Confidence Limit$759.981442.791828785$0.751.419%$51.88$800.00($822.34)-1700000Spread1465.6974019521$0.344.095%$47.66$800.00$1,561.77-15500001646.7259474744$0.312.867%$52.40$800.00$1,170.88-1400000StDev:$933.441676.2042407525$0.451.081%$48.10$800.00($689.48)-125030.0000040.0006Max:$3,377.74Q(.75):$1,474.611376.0031836876$0.664.380%$49.67$800.00$1,284.51-1100280.00003733330.0062Min:($1,285.11)Q(.25):($19.36)1787.7190088378$0.614.466%$49.30$800.00$2,052.28-950700.00009333330.0202Range:$4,662.85IQ Range:$1,493.981460.4352932243$0.721.265%$51.20$800.00($901.44)-800870.0001160.03761568.6415716129$0.474.768%$51.33$800.00$2,298.94-6501270.00016933330.063Shape1306.3423389121$0.634.529%$49.65$800.00$1,313.69-5001990.00026533330.10281725.2495800239$0.531.464%$49.67$800.00($465.48)-3502110.00028133330.145Skewness:0.076411091425.1040579612$0.764.705%$50.99$800.00$1,534.64-2002350.00031333330.192Kurtosis:-0.8378562651731.4815167892$0.262.093%$47.24$800.00$456.69-502390.00031866670.23981550.7830864281$0.541.944%$47.04$800.00($212.56)1002640.0003520.2926Quantiles, Percentiles, Intervals1308.3355536272$0.783.510%$48.92$800.00$428.972502600.00034666670.34461204.5116099822$0.471.533%$51.84$800.00($414.22)4002400.000320.392690% Interval95% Interval1693.9887291039$0.791.102%$48.90$800.00($1,221.25)5502410.00032133330.4408Q(.05):($729.64)Q(.025):($906.02)1553.3016558588$0.503.597%$48.55$800.00$1,133.187002470.00032933330.4902Q(.95):$2,238.83Q(.975):$2,453.211646.5565145496$0.372.877%$48.87$800.00$903.098502330.00031066670.53681697.0643982058$0.432.980%$52.99$800.00$1,144.7610002750.00036666670.5918Alpha (a):0.05Q(a/2):($906.02)1479.2538853308$0.581.380%$50.71$800.00($629.28)11502550.000340.6428% Interval:95%Q(1-a/2):$2,453.211349.1509772311$0.473.934%$47.70$800.00$1,102.0813002690.00035866670.69661732.6859310892$0.663.704%$51.78$800.00$1,382.9614502200.00029333330.7406Probabilities1373.6234712233$0.381.071%$48.91$800.00($597.09)16002520.0003360.7911520.3842070607$0.431.246%$51.15$800.00($477.60)17502350.00031333330.838Pr( y > 0 ):74%1561.9095120999$0.424.071%$48.78$800.00$1,651.1219002360.00031466670.88521460.4781030451$0.453.453%$48.14$800.00$963.6520501720.00022933330.9196Pr( y 2000) =9.06%1647.5475517974$0.664.912%$49.23$800.00$2,088.992350990.0001320.9642Pr( -700 < y < 2000 ) =85.64%1756.1518067716$0.494.096%$52.63$800.00$2,117.122500740.00009866670.979Alpha (a):0.14361697.238891513$0.441.022%$50.73$800.00($673.44)2650420.0000560.98741248.2682714305$0.301.453%$51.34$800.00($248.37)2800260.00003466670.99261451.598381003$0.414.351%$49.21$800.00$1,711.472950230.00003066670.99721271.6652117921$0.211.378%$50.41$800.00($188.59)310060.0000080.99841310.5153710279$0.644.186%$49.79$800.00$1,089.11325050.00000666670.99941719.5723174427$0.301.588%$50.85$800.00$74.39340030.00000411403.0733314729$0.684.709%$49.98$800.00$1,542.9835500011688.4670170491$0.404.629%$49.41$800.00$2,378.4237000011506.2141232677$0.791.177%$52.33$800.00($1,061.19)38500011499.651528103$0.224.130%$50.90$800.00$2,018.9040000011445.7300207139$0.742.671%$48.85$800.00$13.481738.3411874059$0.364.968%$52.52$800.00$3,105.831523.5724291037$0.423.243%$52.14$800.00$1,136.131660.398774067$0.362.248%$50.75$800.00$503.141238.7854255843$0.753.963%$47.57$800.00$610.361257.3538015323$0.753.253%$50.41$800.00$319.711433.4067657913$0.702.503%$51.85$800.00$57.091243.1344953282$0.661.101%$51.16$800.00($917.44)1645.8574803042$0.562.083%$47.34$800.00($104.44)1322.6103422009$0.542.242%$52.06$800.00$30.541330.7185105348$0.304.104%$50.61$800.00$1,563.771401.4358640044$0.452.037%$49.65$800.00($10.74)1286.8276624154$0.642.885%$49.69$800.00$218.991344.2720369095$0.364.992%$52.64$800.00$2,242.411388.277705732$0.354.600%$48.03$800.00$1,783.531264.9975198055$0.562.538%$49.10$800.00$63.541671.8320866643$0.252.908%$48.88$800.00$1,159.121404.0342102646$0.451.292%$48.67$800.00($549.32)1352.9284549798$0.524.605%$52.78$800.00$1,784.181549.361117334$0.593.865%$48.60$800.00$1,188.861668.7428986758$0.232.983%$48.73$800.00$1,235.861235.8086989721$0.594.816%$49.22$800.00$1,404.601780.4044561016$0.771.377%$50.20$800.00($934.54)1406.2466585362$0.511.426%$49.62$800.00($521.78)1399.9998712314$0.583.422%$51.96$800.00$876.271221.202702922$0.253.813%$51.33$800.00$1,287.051355.3264751932$0.762.539%$52.21$800.00($31.21)1462.2795940772$0.521.394%$51.38$800.00($508.03)1441.5667050413$0.783.354%$52.00$800.00$587.531448.4167821764$0.471.307%$52.81$800.00($473.91)1576.1744517671$0.213.208%$49.00$800.00$1,345.481700.2402513274$0.653.911%$52.06$800.00$1,556.631296.0903492833$0.361.121%$48.65$800.00($555.63)1559.9528696597$0.651.017%$52.76$800.00($969.58)1422.351245024$0.753.212%$49.21$800.00$383.051433.3917404999$0.614.505%$52.35$800.00$1,704.361254.5169517176$0.623.223%$48.37$800.00$378.671566.4761246116$0.534.915%$47.04$800.00$1,987.391783.7862906186$0.693.341%$51.12$800.00$1,011.591327.4489585181$0.524.811%$49.87$800.00$1,688.021456.5215660204$0.643.527%$52.59$800.00$966.841297.189848671$0.461.312%$48.08$800.00($582.47)1300.5132529653$0.784.638%$47.79$800.00$1,068.921620.5894220455$0.362.330%$52.74$800.00$600.731336.0095060941$0.621.492%$47.03$800.00($697.29)1234.69833942$0.633.969%$48.46$800.00$791.761250.78537759$0.221.934%$47.43$800.00$76.271438.2752483506$0.364.430%$48.85$800.00$1,800.101626.2034733025$0.201.968%$51.98$800.00$532.421700.8115731867$0.334.409%$50.11$800.00$2,395.751764.8362569484$0.313.401%$51.80$800.00$1,760.311708.5610280602$0.673.730%$49.42$800.00$1,196.911445.0345143468$0.214.296%$48.58$800.00$1,913.951206.4432976165$0.443.296%$52.42$800.00$755.151797.9404040234$0.372.023%$52.48$800.00$442.021559.0286221626$0.492.397%$51.65$800.00$367.631748.6937655878$0.301.159%$52.52$800.00($253.37)1273.4086955025$0.682.112%$52.96$800.00($243.47)1583.7010187845$0.282.428%$52.45$800.00$777.241350.7355883632$0.782.260%$49.56$800.00($342.78)1389.3004140559$0.533.365%$47.02$800.00$668.651389.8231980606$0.524.520%$47.58$800.00$1,471.311480.5998370833$0.771.418%$49.11$800.00($911.96)1466.942238753$0.582.353%$49.94$800.00$80.361233.3924825448$0.203.066%$50.91$800.00$873.971338.8863393876$0.314.011%$47.83$800.00$1,349.281414.5746921491$0.792.165%$47.62$800.00($455.94)1354.1940605912$0.294.916%$49.96$800.00$2,137.521381.3754046122$0.571.662%$51.53$800.00($397.79)1358.4491544319$0.771.440%$48.98$800.00($882.16)1301.1642510917$0.573.072%$52.40$800.00$554.801589.2198033944$0.754.655%$48.39$800.00$1,591.161607.4034270077$0.652.930%$52.91$800.00$652.501440.5695261448$0.254.278%$51.90$800.00$2,038.061364.7798538162$0.421.357%$52.24$800.00($403.91)1658.8980311979$0.472.391%$51.49$800.00$463.491267.6133154318$0.211.030%$50.38$800.00($413.01)1573.0644762156$0.684.993%$47.48$800.00$1,865.511338.7774955348$0.221.937%$51.05$800.00$230.961649.8904712798$0.701.992%$50.88$800.00($277.64)1234.3030603405$0.603.009%$50.14$800.00$318.381528.698815964$0.311.117%$52.53$800.00($374.87)1618.4887761316$0.552.472%$52.99$800.00$432.061375.2936791382$0.503.837%$47.93$800.00$1,039.551705.8695049726$0.304.174%$47.52$800.00$2,064.841493.1140647656$0.603.934%$51.31$800.00$1,318.801277.7482748464$0.493.440%$47.58$800.00$662.711563.8032126521$0.691.314%$52.72$800.00($789.94)1483.8986532476$0.584.235%$51.56$800.00$1,573.821598.9812050846$0.761.993%$49.85$800.00($421.41)1332.3308276659$0.384.090%$47.06$800.00$1,252.691500.2124229445$0.331.933%$51.99$800.00$219.161548.214975362$0.284.462%$47.7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0($370.56)1591.9286719994$0.484.577%$52.26$800.00$2,244.851373.98641959$0.552.485%$52.95$800.00$253.251691.1068185908$0.504.548%$47.35$800.00$1,998.641578.4158046946$0.352.741%$51.27$800.00$859.321539.2475645812$0.644.029%$49.67$800.00$1,297.841797.6601771176$0.223.816%$50.03$800.00$2,243.791612.7746960633$0.552.851%$51.17$800.00$666.151389.0546467162$0.251.759%$51.05$800.00$105.791446.872334933$0.343.211%$49.72$800.00$1,020.791481.7964056739$0.381.772%$48.55$800.00($89.43)1458.262721874$0.701.049%$49.64$800.00($1,056.01)1731.2132929822$0.493.316%$48.25$800.00$1,124.521332.4645751158$0.454.258%$47.89$800.00$1,322.001300.1206453954$0.732.782%$50.73$800.00$86.321278.7170683464$0.354.510%$47.05$800.00$1,467.271541.3738975359$0.341.264%$51.26$800.00($331.16)1288.4277113035$0.731.803%$50.98$800.00($561.60)1268.660438256$0.344.893%$47.18$800.00$1,700.561255.0475261819$0.773.757%$51.87$800.00$680.581640.6060913662$0.663.209%$47.85$800.00$640.531654.2250383937$0.562.596%$47.41$800.00$316.751702.9624122218$0.423.034%$50.14$800.00$1,069.051511.4978962177$0.593.997%$47.01$800.00$1,153.651778.3408303636$0.494.810%$50.12$800.00$2,617.891495.5154527218$0.343.695%$52.04$800.00$1,565.431767.7939670131$0.764.764%$49.07$800.00$1,991.181482.7848471976$0.643.785%$52.02$800.00$1,176.801742.347708955$0.504.402%$49.95$800.00$2,153.581242.0326488084$0.472.620%$49.14$800.00$218.431418.585370126$0.302.553%$51.50$800.00$642.541498.6877491393$0.784.259%$49.91$800.00$1,215.271597.6509989932$0.763.959%$50.49$800.00$1,176.551763.1234341392$0.552.876%$52.99$800.00$917.781316.8926095924$0.664.196%$50.87$800.00$1,141.641319.6735662322$0.332.110%$48.50$800.00$108.901608.5609549276$0.621.631%$47.92$800.00($548.10)1499.3495041114$0.223.875%$50.02$800.00$1,778.441652.8632449744$0.382.385%$47.61$800.00$443.741590.3926000874$0.574.261%$49.88$800.00$1,677.441458.4090219267$0.222.069%$52.57$800.00$469.711474.2863708136$0.642.127%$50.01$800.00($169.54)1541.5838772774$0.723.265%$50.60$800.00$633.331642.3248450488$0.751.867%$52.67$800.00($412.42)1293.4049661182$0.383.336%$48.78$800.00$813.141315.6130595879$0.743.311%$50.40$800.00$424.621378.4667054026$0.684.664%$48.16$800.00$1,365.011238.0621458212$0.794.644%$52.69$800.00$1,251.321390.5547097827$0.363.898%$48.25$800.00$1,307.871524.0388969638$0.504.230%$51.23$800.00$1,736.501537.3641321296$0.221.021%$51.08$800.00($336.53)1718.8731125509$0.681.790%$47.84$800.00($492.80)1565.4073582081$0.442.324%$47.14$800.00$233.371389.8215618854$0.422.083%$52.64$800.00$144.651796.8338549183$0.411.685%$50.38$800.00($8.70)1584.676037372$0.314.010%$51.83$800.00$2,002.551448.4966804767$0.402.798%$47.95$800.00$558.091362.3200249972$0.421.314%$49.89$800.00($483.17)1656.5370470018$0.514.193%$52.80$800.00$2,022.191626.4842556536$0.223.338%$52.34$800.00$1,692.351462.8054620828$0.244.969%$51.15$800.00$2,565.911415.0100954425$0.293.404%$51.25$800.00$1,262.261333.3084550606$0.362.642%$52.00$800.00$546.481285.8974999503$0.384.863%$52.14$800.00$1,976.431721.4276432347$0.423.980%$50.86$800.00$1,965.391686.4258306467$0.411.659%$52.04$800.00($35.20)1467.0267144192$0.464.531%$52.62$800.00$2,017.081427.7721023274$0.393.473%$48.65$800.00$1,055.801378.9993977076$0.762.527%$49.97$800.00($102.00)1708.5457074229$0.771.402%$51.71$800.00($884.73)1421.489594025$0.544.556%$47.56$800.00$1,512.111788.8643716427$0.542.987%$48.25$800.00$808.011378.0557102932$0.471.316%$50.85$800.00($522.89)1758.1479992849$0.654.978%$50.00$800.00$2,436.681316.160043136$0.614.619%$51.93$800.00$1,557.731784.0665498261$0.433.892%$52.94$800.00$2,103.251487.883815424$0.351.551%$48.37$800.00($201.66)1619.6614044965$0.501.237%$52.12$800.00($563.32)1516.421036997$0.402.712%$50.26$800.00$667.131367.2583271114$0.683.773%$48.92$800.00$798.641316.0667838335$0.724.033%$49.29$800.00$863.881254.832023486$0.484.652%$48.57$800.00$1,433.701608.2817600174$0.413.447%$47.79$800.00$1,194.961492.0148078096$0.562.645%$49.95$800.00$334.831345.9078245152$0.264.728%$50.33$800.00$2,056.771600.9118340552$0.213.868%$50.02$800.00$1,963.691356.4130057553$0.761.586%$52.86$800.00($687.41)1497.0649601973$0.702.877%$47.69$800.00$203.501660.9504704301$0.502.258%$47.50$800.00$156.931390.9892691475$0.472.638%$51.76$800.00$445.671286.3772934493$0.761.490%$47.12$800.00($875.22)1323.9028513237$0.664.765%$48.66$800.00$1,397.921557.8082307131$0.311.478%$52.65$800.00($68.46)1369.4013929063$0.361.659%$50.10$800.00($153.65)1564.7250635692$0.571.575%$48.63$800.00($487.42)1767.5650832826$0.351.532%$52.61$800.00$6.211768.7307882806$0.602.753%$48.50$800.00$506.731333.7103375184$0.432.940%$50.06$800.00$587.591699.8302958386$0.221.692%$47.90$800.00$210.831316.4868993748$0.482.309%$50.15$800.00$91.571670.7255867799$0.473.564%$51.57$800.00$1,481.081629.4055877725$0.411.824%$49.89$800.00$9.321673.2490037883$0.421.478%$50.46$800.00($250.03)1211.754429395$0.293.175%$49.62$800.00$755.081284.5978279631$0.513.430%$50.44$800.00$771.661574.9501869434$0.292.200%$52.19$800.00$548.251403.5670268224$0.541.610%$50.99$800.00($399.33)1454.1007350419$0.721.165%$48.27$800.00($1,024.61)1773.605675002$0.781.354%$51.28$800.00($957.03)1561.0646443692$0.802.518%$50.91$800.00($43.54)1569.3824126182$0.341.686%$52.87$800.00$72.891779.124860062$0.273.888%$49.56$800.00$2,145.311457.6753000661$0.294.730%$52.89$800.00$2,419.081235.9497184704$0.411.276%$48.63$800.00($536.70)1640.6868933297$


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