Salem's Economic and Housing Outlook
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Transcript of Salem's Economic and Housing Outlook
![Page 1: Salem's Economic and Housing Outlook](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022050613/5a6ed98f7f8b9a49648b63cd/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Salem Economic and Housing Outlook
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Josh Lehner
Disclaimer: The views expressed here are solely those of the presenter, they do not necessarily represent official State of Oregon policies or positions.
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Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis2
The Valley is Booming
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Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis3
Labor Market is Tight
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Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis4
Everybody has a Job Finally
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Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis5
Full Employment Impact
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Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis6
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Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis7
Poverty Rates Falling
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Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis8
Issue: Job Polarization
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Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis9
Polarization “Adjustment”
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Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis10
Outlook: Slower Growth
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Housing
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Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis12
Statewide Challenge
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Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis13
Affordability
Qualityof Life
EconomicStrength
PolicyThe Housing TrilemmaCities face tradeoffs in terms ofhousing affordability, job availabilityand quality of life. Comparing the100 largest MSAs in the country.
Source: David Albouy, BEA, BLS, Census, IHS Global Insight, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
• Youngstown, OH
Detroit, MI •
Cincinnati, OH •
• Omaha, NE
Oklahoma City, OK •
Des Moines, IA•
Houston, TX •
• Atlanta, GA• Phoenix, AZ
• Seattle, WA
Portland, OR •San Francisco, CA •
Boise, ID •• Austin, TXProvidence, RI •
Sacramento, CA •Salem, OR •
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Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis14
Demand is Back
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Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis15
Aside: Salem’s Bright Future
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Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis16
Boomers AgingIn Place
Local Kids Aging Into Adulthood
Mostly Migrants
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Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis17
There is No Supply
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Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis18
Prices and Econ 101
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Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis19
•Confidence•Labor•Lots•Land Use•Financing
Supply Constraints
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Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis20
Labor Costs are High but Not Showing Up in Wages
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Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis21
•Builder Confidence•Labor Costs•Finding Enough Workers•Lot Supply•Credit Availability
Lot Supply Constraints
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Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis22
Blame Idaho’s Land Use?
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Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis23
Finances Slowly Getting A Little Better
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Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis24
Shift in Demand
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Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis25
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Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis26
Peak Renter in Theory
Age 3750% Owner50% Renter
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Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis27
•Moar broader focus on region
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Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis28
Outlook: Better Balance
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Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis29
It’s 5 O’clock Somewhere
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Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis30
(503) 378-4052
www.OregonEconomicAnalysis.com
@OR_EconAnalysis
Questions and Contact