Sagar Cements Ltd - National Stock Exchange of India · 2011-10-18 · Sagar Cements Ltd’s...

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Enhancing investment decisions

Q1FY12 Result Update

Sagar Cements Ltd


Explanation of CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation (CFV) matrix

The CFV Matrix (CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation Matrix) addresses the two important analysis of an investment making process –

Analysis of Fundamentals (addressed through Fundamental Grade) and Analysis of Returns (Valuation Grade) The fundamental

grade is assigned on a five-point scale from grade 5 (indicating Excellent fundamentals) to grade 1 (Poor fundamentals) The

valuation grade is assigned on a five-point scale from grade 5 (indicating strong upside from the current market price (CMP)) to

grade 1 (strong downside from the CMP).

CRISIL Fundamental Grade

Assessment CRISIL Valuation Grade

Assessment

5/5 Excellent fundamentals 5/5 Strong upside (>25% from CMP)

4/5 Superior fundamentals 4/5 Upside (10-25% from CMP)

3/5 Good fundamentals 3/5 Align (+-10% from CMP)

2/5 Moderate fundamentals 2/5 Downside (- 10-25% from CMP)

1/5 Poor fundamentals 1/5 Strong downside (<-25% from CMP)

Analyst Disclosure

Each member of the team involved in the preparation of the grading report, hereby affirms that there exists no conflict of interest

that can bias the grading recommendation of the company. Additional Disclosure

This report has been sponsored by NSE - Investor Protection Fund Trust (NSEIPFT). Disclaimer:

This Exchange-commissioned Report (Report) is based on data publicly available or from sources considered reliable by CRISIL

(Data). However, CRISIL does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of the Data / Report and is not responsible for

any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of Data / Report. The Data / Report are subject to change without

any prior notice. Opinions expressed herein are our current opinions as on the date of this Report. Nothing in this Report constitutes

investment, legal, accounting or tax advice or any solicitation, whatsoever. The Report is not a recommendation to buy / sell or hold

any securities of the Company. CRISIL especially states that it has no financial liability, whatsoever, to the subscribers / users of this

Report. This Report is for the personal information only of the authorized recipient in India only. This Report should not be

reproduced or redistributed or communicated directly or indirectly in any form to any other person – especially outside India or

published or copied in whole or in part, for any purpose.

© CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved. CRISIL RESEARCH | 1

Sagar Cements Ltd Firm cement prices led to better than expected performance

Fundamental Grade 2/5 (Moderate fundamentals)

Valuation Grade 5/5 (CMP has strong upside) Industry Cement

Fair Value Rs 202 CMP Rs 135

July 18, 2011

Sagar Cements Ltd’s (Sagar’s) Q1FY12 revenues and margins exceeded CRISIL Research’s expectations. Sagar reported 2.5% q-o-q growth in Q1FY12 revenues. The higher realisation was a surprise and also helped Sagar to post a flat EBITDA margin of 23.5%. We continue to expect cement prices to come under pressure given the oversupply in Andhra Pradesh (AP) and tapering cement demand with construction activities slowing down. Thus, we estimate FY12 realisation to be Rs 3,672 per tonne against Rs 4,659 reported by Sagar in Q1FY12. We maintain the fundamental grade of 2/5.

Q1FY12 result analysis

• Q1FY12 revenues grew by 2.5% q-o-q (32% y-o-y) to Rs 1,725 mn due to

higher realisations that were up by 9.9% to Rs 4,659 (43.3% y-o-y). Sales

volumes declined by 1% q-o-q (up 6.5% y-o-y). We had expected cement

prices to decline; but production cuts led to an artificial price rise in south

India. The absence of clinker sales during the quarter is attributed to the

merger with Amareshwari Cements Ltd (ACL), who used to buy clinker from

Sagar earlier.

• The average lead distance for Sagar increased by 60 kms y-o-y due to the

management’s strategic decision to reduce exposure to AP; in Q1FY12,

dispatches to AP declined to 60% (from ~77% in Q1FY11) while the ~40%

were sold to markets largely across south India, excluding AP. Hence, the

freight cost increased by 40% y-o-y.

• EBITDA margin remained flat q-o-q at 23.5% (up 1,374 bps y-o-y). The

27.3% q-o-q decline in power and fuel costs was due to the lower clinker

production in Q1FY12 as the company used its opening clinker inventory.

• PAT margin declined by 91 bps q-o-q to 10.5% (increased 1,013 bps y-o-y)

due to lower other income. Adjusted EPS for Q1FY12 is Rs 12.9.

Earnings estimates revised upwards

Given the production discipline followed by cement players across AP and other states of south India, we have increased our average realisation estimates and hence our revenue estimates for FY12 and FY13 by 3.5% and 1.1%, respectively. We have further increased our average realisation estimate for FY12 by 4% compared to our earlier estimate. However, we expect cement prices to correct from the current level with commissioning of new capacities.

Valuations: Current market price has strong upside

We continue to value Sagar based on the sum-of-the-parts method. We maintain the fair value of Rs 202 per share and valuation grade of 5/5.

KEY FORECAST

(Rs mn) FY09 FY10 FY11# FY12E FY13E

Operating income 2,701 4,305 4,978 5,335 6,096EBITDA 653 905 616 955 994Adj PAT 189 202 176 242 265Adj EPS-Rs 12.6 13.5 11.7 13.9 15.2EPS growth (%) (49.2) 6.7 (12.9) 18.5 9.7Dividend yield (%) 14.0 2.7 1.5 1.5 1.5RoCE (%) 11.4 13.7 7.6 13.4 13.1RoE (%) 11.8 9.6 7.9 10.2 10.1PE (x) 2.6 10.0 11.5 9.7 8.9P/BV (x) 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9EV/EBITDA (x) 4.4 4.8 7.1 5.1 4.6

NM: Not meaningful; CMP: Current Market Price

#FY11 numbers are based on abridged financials

Source: Company, CRISIL Research estimate

CFV MATRIX

KEY STOCK STATISTICS NIFTY 5567

NSE ticker SAGCEM

Face value (Rs per share) 10

Shares outstanding (mn) 15.0

Market cap (Rs mn)/(US$ mn) 2,025/45

Enterprise value (Rs mn) /(US$ mn) 4,397/98

52-week range (Rs) (H/L) 172/115

Beta 1.04

Free float (%) 55.8%

Avg daily volumes (30-days) 791

Avg daily value (30-days) (Rs mn) 0.1

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN

PERFORMANCE VIS-À-VIS MARKET

Returns

1-m 3-m 6-m 12-m

SAGAR 0% -4% -1% -10% NIFTY 4% -3% -3% 3%

ANALYTICAL CONTACT Chetan Majithia (Head) [email protected]

Nivedita Joshi [email protected]

Vishal Rampuria [email protected]

Client servicing desk

+91 22 3342 3561 [email protected]

1 2 3 4 5

1

2

3

4

5

Valuation Grade

Fu

nd

amen

tal G

rad

e

Poor Fundamentals

ExcellentFundamentals

Str

on

gD

ow

nsid

e

Str

on

gU

psid

e44.2% 44.2% 44.2% 44.2%

6.7% 6.7%0.0% 0.0%

8.1% 7.3%7.5% 7.8%

41.1% 41.9%48.3% 48.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11

Promoter FII DII Others


Sagar Cements Ltd

Q1FY12 Result Summary (Rs mn) Q1FY12 Q4FY11 Q1FY11 q-o-q (%) y-o-y (%)

Net sales 1,725 1,682 1,304 2.5 32.2 Consumption of raw materials 121 256 220 (52.6) (44.9) (Increase) / decrease in stock in trade 75 (158) 6 NM 1,262.1 Raw material as a % of sales 11% 6% 17% 553 bps (593) bps Power and fuel cost 368 507 385 (27.3) (4.3) Other expenses 701 639 527 9.7 33.1 Employee cost 54 42 40 27.3 35.5 EBITDA 406 396 127 2.4 218.3 EBITDA margin 23.5% 23.5% 9.8% (2) bps 1,374 bps Depreciation 63 68 66 (6.0) (4.2) EBIT 342 328 61 4.2 459.9 Interest and finance charges 87 83 70 4.4 24.9 Operating PBT 255 245 (9) 4.1 NM Other income 1.7 33.0 12 (95.0) (86.6) PBT 257 278 4 (7.7) NM Tax 75 85 (2) (12.3) NM PAT 182 193 5 (5.6) NM Adj PAT 182 193 5 (5.6) NM Adj PAT margin 10.5% 11.5% 0.4% (91) bps 1,013 bps No of equity shares (mn) 14.1 15.0 15.0 (6.0) (6.0) Adj EPS (Rs) 12.9 12.8 0.4 0.4 NM

Source: Company, CRISIL Research

Muted revenue and EBITDA margin growth... ... driven by improved realisations

Source: Company, CRISIL Research Source: Company, CRISIL Research

Quarterly EBITDA and PAT margin trend Cement prices trend in Hyderabad

Source: Company, CRISIL Research Source: Company, CRISIL Research

1,26

1

1,38

4

1,28

1

895

1,23

6

1,30

4

864

1,12

6

1,68

2

1,72

5

21%26% 25%

3%

8% 10%

-6%

13%

24% 24%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

Mar

-09

Jun-

09

Sep

-09

Dec-

09

Mar

-10

Jun-

10

Sep

-10

Dec-

10

Mar

-11

Jun-

11

(Rs mn)

Net Sales EBITDA Margin (RHS)

2,837 3,251

2,822

3,818 4,238

4,659

0.42

0.390.31 0.30

0.42 0.41

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

Q4FY10 Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11 Q1FY12

(mn tonnes)(Rs)

Revenue per tonne Sales volumes (RHS)

8.2%9.8%

-5.6%

12.5%

23.5% 23.5%

0.2% 0.4%

-6.1%

2.8%

11.5% 10.5%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

Q4FY10 Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11 Q1FY12

EBITDA margin Net margin

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Apr

-10

May-

10

Jun-1

0

Jul-

10

Aug-

10

Sep-1

0

Oct

-10

Nov-

10

Dec

-10

Jan-

11

Feb

-11

Mar-

11

Apr

-11

May-

11

Jun-1

1

(Rs)

Revenues up 32.2% y-

o-y primarily due to

~43% growth in

realisations

EBITDA margin

remained flat; while PAT

margin declined due to

lower other income


Sagar Cements Ltd

Share price movement Fair value movement since initiation

-indexed to 100

Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, CRISIL Research

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jan-0

9

Mar-

09

Jun-0

9

Aug-

09

Nov-

09

Jan-1

0

Apr

-10

Jun-1

0

Sep

-10

Nov-

10

Feb-

11

Apr

-11

Jul-

11

Sagar NIFTY

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

50

100

150

200

250

02-

Nov-1

0

27-

Nov-1

0

22-D

ec-

10

16-

Jan-1

1

10-

Feb-1

1

07-

Mar

-11

01-A

pr-

11

26-A

pr-

11

21-M

ay-1

1

15-

Jun-

11

10-J

ul-1

1

('000)(Rs)

Traded Traded Quantity (RHS) CRISIL Fair Value Sagar


Sagar Cements Ltd

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

Vicat JV-on track: Work on the Vicat-Sagar JV is on schedule and the

management is confident of commissioning the plant by June 2012.

Proposed railway track near Sagar’s plant: Construction of the proposed

railway track near Sagar’s plant is on schedule and the management is

confident that the track will be operational by mid 2012.

Upcoming cement capacities in Andhra Pradesh: Around 10 mn tonnes of

additional cement capacity is expected to be commissioned in Andhra Pradesh

by the end of FY12 due to capacity expansion by existing players viz., ~3.5 mn

tonnes by Jaypee Cement Corporation and the entry of new players viz.,~2 mn

tonnes by JSW Cement Ltd. This will add to the existing oversupply situation in

Andhra Pradesh and hence remains a key monitorable .

Amareshwari Cements merger completed: The merger of ACL with Sagar,

which was approved by the AP High Court w.e.f. 1 April, 2010, has been finally

completed. Pursuant to the amalgamation of ACL with itself, Sagar has

cancelled 0.9 mn shares held by ACL as investments in Sagar. On 12 July, 2011

Sagar completed the merger by issuing 3.2 mn shares to ACL shareholders.

Hence, the paid-up equity share capital of the company is Rs 174 mn as of

date.

EARNINGS ESTIMATES REVISED UPWARDS

FY12E FY13E

Particulars Unit Old New % change Old New % change

Revenues (Rs mn) 5,153 5,335 3.5% 6,029 6,096 1.1%

EBITDA (Rs mn) 775 955 23.3% 894 994 11.2%

EBITDA margin % 15.0 17.9 287bps 14.8 16.3 149bps

PAT (Rs mn) 121 242 99.8% 191 265 38.8%

PAT margin % 2.3 4.5 218bps 3.2 4.4 118bps

EPS Rs 6.9 13.9 101.5% 11.0 15.2 38.6%

Source: CRISIL Research

Reasons for changes in estimates Line item FY12 FY13

Revenues • We have increased our average realisation estimate

for FY12 by 4% to Rs 3,672 per tonne against our

earlier estimate of Rs 3,535 per tonne. Cement

prices remained firm contrary to our expectations

as south India continued to witness supply

discipline. With the commissioning of new

capacities, we expect cement prices to move

southwards from the current high levels.

• Higher realisations compared to our earlier

estimates.

• We maintain our estimated operating rate of 65%

and expect ~3% y-o-y growth in realisations.

EBITDA margins • Higher than previously estimated cement prices. • Higher than previously estimated cement prices.

PAT margins • Increase in EBITDA. • Increase in EBITDA.


Sagar Cements Ltd

VALUATION

We continue to value Sagar based on the sum-of-the-parts method by using

EV/tonne of Rs 1,720 for the core business and its investments in Sagar-Vicat

JV at 6x EV/EBITDA; the core business is valued at Rs 143/share and Vicat JV at

Rs 59/share. We maintain the fair value of Rs 202 per share.

One-year forward P/E band One-year forward EV/Tonne band

Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, CRISIL Research

P/E – premium/discount to NIFTY P/E movement

Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, CRISIL Research.

CRISIL IER reports released on Sagar Cements Ltd

Date Nature of report

Fundamental

grade Fair value

Valuation

grade

CMP

(on the date of report)

01-Dec-10 Initiating coverage* 2/5 Rs 202 5/5 Rs 125

25-Feb-11 Q3FY11 result update 2/5 Rs 202 5/5 Rs 135

09-June-11 Q4FY11 result update 2/5 Rs 202 5/5 Rs 137

18-July-11 Q1FY12 result update 2/5 Rs 202 5/5 Rs 135

* For detailed initiating coverage report please visit: www.ier.co.in

CRISIL Independent Equity Research reports are also available on Bloomberg (CRI <go>) and Thomson Reuters.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Apr-

07

Jul-

07

Oct

-07

Jan-0

8

Apr-

08

Jul-

08

Oct

-08

Jan-0

9

Apr-

09

Jul-

09

Oct

-09

Jan-1

0

Apr-

10

Jul-

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Oct

-10

Jan-1

1

Apr-

11

Jul-

11

(Rs)

Sagar 8x 12x 16x 20x 24x

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

Apr-

07

Jul-

07

Oct

-07

Jan-0

8

A pr-

08

Jul-

08

Oct

-08

Jan-0

9

Apr-

09

Jul-

09

Oct

-09

Jan-1

0

Apr-

10

Jul-

10

Oct

-10

Jan-1

1

A pr-

11

Jul-

11

(Rs mn)

EV Rs1500/tonne Rs2500/tonneRs2500/tonne Rs3000/tonne

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Apr

-07

Jul-

07

Oct

-07

Jan-

08

Apr

-08

Jul-

08

Oct

-08

Jan-

09

Apr

-09

Jul-

09

Oct

-09

Jan-

10

Apr

-10

Jul-

10

Oct

-10

Jan-

11

Apr

-11

Jul-

11

Premium/Discount to NIFTY Median premium/discount to NIFTY

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Apr

-07

Jul-

07

Oct

-07

Jan-

08

Apr

-08

Jul-

08

Oct

-08

Jan-

09

Apr

-09

Jul-

09

Oct

-09

Jan-

10

Apr

-10

Jul-

10

Oct

-10

Jan-

11

Apr

-11

Jul-

11

1yr Fwd PE (x) Median PE

+1 std dev

-1 std dev


Sagar Cements Ltd

FINANCIALS

Note: All ratios are computed on Adj PAT

#FY11 numbers are based on abridged financials

Source: Company, CRISIL Research estimate

Income statement

(Rs mn) FY09 FY10 FY11# FY12E FY13E (Rs mn) FY09 FY10 FY11# FY12E FY13E

Operating income 2,701 4,305 4,978 5,335 6,096 Liabilities

EBITDA 653 905 616 955 994 Equity share capital 150 150 150 174 174

EBITDA margin 24.2% 21.0% 12.4% 17.9% 16.3% Reserves 1,888 2,038 2,098 2,334 2,559

Depreciation 207 287 270 287 292 Minorities - - - - -

EBIT 447 618 346 669 702 Net worth 2,038 2,188 2,248 2,508 2,733

Interest 164 301 306 311 329 Convertible debt 10 10 10 10 10

Operating PBT 283 317 39 358 373 Other debt 2,510 2,296 2,388 2,788 2,688

Other income 4 3 190 3 22 Total debt 2,520 2,306 2,398 2,798 2,698

Exceptional inc/(exp) 6 0 - - - Deferred tax liability (net) 159 271 347 347 347

PBT 293 321 229 361 396 Total liabilities 4,717 4,765 4,993 5,653 5,778

Tax provision 98 119 53 119 131 Assets

Minority interest - - - - - Net fixed assets 3,822 3,782 3,382 3,195 3,003

PAT (Reported) 195 202 176 242 265 Capital WIP 183 103 61 61 61

Less: Exceptionals 6 0 - - - Total fixed assets 4,005 3,885 3,443 3,256 3,064

Adjusted PAT 189 202 176 242 265 Investments 150 381 860 1,360 1,360

Current assets

Ratios Inventory 430 493 558 599 684

FY09 FY10 FY11# FY12E FY13E Sundry debtors 249 418 429 460 525

Growth Loans and advances 468 387 621 666 761

Operating income (%) 20.9 59.4 15.6 7.2 14.2 Cash & bank balance 115 31 27 279 503

EBITDA (%) 1.6 38.5 (31.9) 55.1 4.1 Marketable securities - - - - -

Adj PAT (%) (42.9) 6.7 (12.9) 37.3 9.7 Total current assets 1,261 1,330 1,635 2,003 2,473

Adj EPS (%) (49.2) 6.7 (12.9) 18.5 9.7 Total current liabilities 700 831 945 966 1,119

Net current assets 562 499 690 1,037 1,354

Profitability Intangibles/Misc. expenditure - - - - -

EBITDA margin (%) 24.2 21.0 12.4 17.9 16.3 Total assets 4,717 4,765 4,993 5,653 5,778

Adj PAT Margin (%) 7.0 4.7 3.5 4.5 4.4

RoE (%) 11.8 9.6 7.9 10.2 10.1 Cash flow

RoCE (%) 11.4 13.7 7.6 13.4 13.1 (Rs mn) FY09 FY10 FY11# FY12E FY13E

RoIC (%) 9.6 12.1 17.2 14.9 17.0 Pre-tax profit 287 321 229 361 396

Total tax paid (13) (7) 23 (119) (131)

Valuations Depreciation 207 287 270 287 292

Price-earnings (x) 2.6 10.0 11.5 9.7 8.9 Working capital changes (354) (21) (195) (95) (93)

Price-book (x) 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 Net cash from operations 127 580 327 433 465

EV/EBITDA (x) 4.4 4.8 7.1 5.1 4.6 Cash from investments

EV/Sales (x) 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 Capital expenditure (1,050) (167) 172 (100) (100)

Dividend payout ratio (%) 35.1 27.1 17.0 14.4 13.1 Investments and others (150) (231) (479) (500) -

Dividend yield (%) 14.0 2.7 1.5 1.5 1.5 Net cash from investments (1,200) (398) (307) (600) (100)

Cash from financing

B/S ratios Equity raised/(repaid) 198 - (1,050) 24 -

Inventory days 88 66 47 65 61 Debt raised/(repaid) 431 (214) 92 400 (100)

Creditors days 109 81 75 76 75 Dividend (incl. tax) (68) (55) (35) (41) (41)

Debtor days 38 34 25 29 29 Others (incl extraordinaries) 557 3 969 35 -

Working capital days 36 39 41 49 48 Net cash from financing 1,117 (265) (24) 418 (141)

Gross asset turnover (x) 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1 Change in cash position 44 (84) (4) 252 224

Net asset turnover (x) 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.6 2 C losing cash 115 31 27 279 503

Sales/operating assets (x) 0.75 1.1 1.36 1.59 1.93

Current ratio (x) 1.8 1.6 1.7 2.1 2.2 Quarterly financials

Debt-equity (x) 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 (Rs mn) Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11 Q1FY12

Net debt/equity (x) 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.8 Net Sales 1,304 864 1,126 1,682 1,725

Interest coverage 2.7 2.1 1.1 2.2 2.1 Change (q-o-q) 5.6% -33.7% 30.3% 49.3% 2.5%

EBITDA 127 (48) 141 396 406

Per share Change (q-o-q) 26.4% -137.8% -392.6% 180.9% 2.4%

FY09 FY10 FY11# FY12E FY13E EBITDA margin 9.8% -5.6% 12.5% 23.5% 23.5%

Adj EPS (Rs) 12.6 13.5 11.7 13.9 15.2 PAT 5 (53) 31 193 182

CEPS 26.4 32.6 29.7 30.4 32.1 Adj PAT 5 (53) 31 193 182

Book value 135.8 145.9 149.9 144.3 157.2 Change (q-o-q) 109.9% NM NM 520.8% -5.6%

Dividend (Rs) 4.6 3.7 2.0 2.0 2.0 Adj PAT margin 0.4% -6.1% 2.8% 11.5% 10.5%

Actual o/s shares (mn) 15.0 15.0 15.0 17.4 17.4 Adj EPS 0.4 (3.5) 2.1 12.8 12.9

Balance Sheet


CRISIL Research Team

Senior Director

Mukesh Agarwal +91 (22) 3342 3035 [email protected]

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Sagar Cements Ltd - National Stock Exchange of India · 2011-10-18 · Sagar Cements Ltd’s...

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