Sad.net Civil Society DFID · assembled on earthquake and tsunami science and research, tsunami...

2 southasiadisasters.net April 2008

KEY IDEAEditorial Advisors:

Dr. Ian DavisCranfield University, UK

Kala Peiris De CostaSiyath Foundation, Sri Lanka

Khurshid AlamIndependent Researcher and Consultant,Dhaka, Bangladesh

Madhavi Malalgoda AriyabanduInternational Strategy for RiskReduction (ISDR) – South Asia,Sri Lanka

Mihir R. BhattAll India Disaster Mitigation Institute,India

Dr. Rita Schneider – SliwaBasel University, Switzerland

Dr. Satchit Balsari, MD, MPHThe University Hospital of Columbiaand Cornell, New York, USA

In this issue

1. Key Idea 22. Decrease Vulnerability

through Early Warning 33. Efficient Early Warning

System: The GlobalScenario 4

4. Early Warning Systems:Concept and GlobalApplication 5

5. Delhi Declaration on DisasterRisk Reduction in Asia:Support for a Community-based Last Mile Early WarningSystem? 6

6. Why Call Them EarlyWarnings if They Are OftenLate and Warn None? 7

7. Emerging Regional Initiativesin Early Warning 9

8. The Well-prepared Japanese 109. Local Initiatives: Global

Examples 1110. Was any Lesson Learnt from

December 2004? 1211. When Warnings Work 1312. Early Warning Systems and

the Media 1413. Power (and Frequency) to

Local Communities 1514. Between a Rock and a Hard

Place 16

In the aftermath of the 2004 tsunami, national authorities across the Indianocean region were charged, among other things, with developing tsunami

information, awareness, education and resource materials for the media, schools,decision-makers and the public. A large amount of training material has beenassembled on earthquake and tsunami science and research, tsunami events,the building of tsunami warning and mitigation systems. This issue talks aboutthe importance of a reliable early warning system throughout the world andthe efforts needed to reach all the way to the people within the last mile.

When major earthquakes occurring in the Pacific rim have magnitudes largeenough to warrant concern, the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) ofthe National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Hawaii, United Statesof America will notify authorities through advisory messages. These messagesare information bulletins, warnings or watches.

Regional Tsunami Warnings are issued initially to coastal areas near theearthquake epicenter as a means of providing the earliest possible alert of apotentially destructive tsunami. Areas in a regional tsunami warning aregenerally less than three hours from the estimated tsunami arrival time.Regional Tsunami Watches on the other hand are tsunami watches issued inconjunction with regional tsunami warnings to coastal areas near the earthquakeepicenter, but outside the warning area. Areas in a regional tsunami watch aregenerally less than six hours from the estimated tsunami arrival time.

Moreover, under the leadership of the UNESCO IntergovernmentalOceanographic Commission (IOC) and the Intergovernmental CoordinationGroup for the Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System, countries across theregion have made significant advances to national warning system networks,communications, and government operations and procedures and are nowable to disseminate appropriate warnings rapidly to local populations. Some ofthe examples include, the installation of detection systems including seismicstations and tide gauges in Indonesia, Thailand, and Sri Lanka. As a result ofupgraded communication networks using Global Telecommunication System(GTS), Sri Lanka and the Maldives can now receive data from detection systemsin a timelier manner so that forecasts can be generated more quickly. Sri Lankaand Thailand have adopted policies and procedures to ensure that tsunamiadvisories are disseminated rapidly and accurately. Indonesia and Sri Lankahave created multiple communication channels through the use of satellitephones to disseminate information widely and quickly. Thousands of people inIndonesia, Sri Lanka, Thailand, India, and the Maldives have been trained incommunity preparedness and resilience to minimise the risk to communitiesin future disasters and hundreds of technical specialists have received trainingon the end-to-end component of tsunami warning systems.

Last but not least, India is to become the first Tsunami Watch Provider for theIndian Ocean as of June this year. This heralds the dawn of a new era ofautonomy for the network of regional tsunami watch providers in the Indianocean. Up until now, the PTWC in Hawaii and the Japanese MeteorologicalAgency (JMA) in Tokyo have been offering an interim service. They willnevertheless continue to act in an advisory capacity until 2011.

Ahmed Fahmi,UNESCO, New Delhi

3southasiadisasters.netApril 2008

Asia's populations and economiesare particularly vulnerable to

the effects extreme climatic events,given its recent trends of forcefuleconomic growth and attendantdisrupted social structures. This issueof southasiadisasters.net–with its focuson the importance of Early WarningSystems (EWS)–is therefore especiallywell timed.

Experience has taught developmentpractitioners and governments thehigher value of pre-emption over theexpense of post-disaster response andmitigation. Various international andnational commitments have beeneffected to re-orient policies andpriorities towards preparedness overrecovery. Organisations have investedconsiderably in improvements toexisting technologies; making EWScheaper and more accessible tocommunities at risk. Otherinexpensive, low-tech alternatives likecommunity radio narrowcasting arealso being explored across the region.

However, global governmental anddonor investment in EWS projects are

Decrease Vulnerability through Early Warningbut a fraction of what is expended onrecovery programmes. Articles inthis issue stress the importance inconstructing people-centric systemsthat are contextualised to cultural,economic, and social specificities of thedemographic group being addressed.A large part of this contextualisationof course, is recognising andintegrating effective traditionalknowledge into warning mechanisms.

Political commitment from thegovernment is as critical as havingeffective information and efficientsystems in place. A case in point isMyanmar, where precise predictionsof Nargis' path were made availablefour days before the tragedy struck,and yet at-risk communities were notevacuated in time.

The United Nations system in India,for its part, is ensuring adherence tomajor components of a compre-hensive EWS to deliver 'last-mileconnectivity' to the potentiallyaffected:• A historical and updated

knowledge of risks

• A technical monitoring andwarning service (VHF wirelessradio directly connectingvulnerable villages to the DistrictCollector)

• Enhanced capacities of vulnerablecommunities to respond to disasterearly warnings (via training).

The success of these initiatives - firstpiloted in tsunami-affected areas - liesin India's National DisasterManagement Authority recentproposal to replicate the system in 13coastal states of the country.

This issue chronicles the many similarefforts across south and south-eastAsia to bridge the gaps that still exist.It educates us about internationalcommitments, regional good practices,existing institutional resources andrecent technological innovations. Mostimportantly, it provides us theopportunity to recognise potentialsynergies that should be explored toreduce duplication of efforts acrossorganisations.

Divya JacobUnited Nations, India

In the aftermath of the Indian Oceantsunami, the Tsunami Evaluation

Coalition (TEC) was set up. The TECnotes that early warnings to those atrisk could have saved many hit bythe monstrous wave on December26, 2004. These warnings receivedlittle or no attention as they wereconsidered unlikely to happen, eventhough the region is hazard prone1.

How the Early Warnings Could haveReached Those at RiskFrom the time when the submarineearthquake trembled it took only 20minutes before it hit the shores ofIndonesia. Another one and halfhours later it hit coastal Sri Lanka,the Maldives coast was hit threehours after that. While the Hawaii

Warning and the 2004 Tsunami: Advice from the TECPacific Tsunami Warning Centeridentified the upcoming tsunami itcirculated the news among to itsregular lists, which did not include anyof the countries hit by this tsunami2.A rapid application of traditionalknowledge saved communitymembers in the Andaman andNicobar Islands of India.

Increasing Dependence on ITAlthough local knowledge saved livesduring the tsunami, the cell phone wasidentified by the TEC as the mainmeans of communication throughoutthe disaster. According to the TEC,information technology plays a crucialrole in all stages of disaster and riskmanagement3. TEC stresses, that thereis still a wide gap between those facing

the risks of a disaster and the use ofnew technology. And whereverstate-of-the-art technology isintroduced, training and education oflocal managers may remainunfulfilled.

The TEC suggests that district levelsshould coordinate all use ofinformation technology in a disastersituation3. In view of that, sharablesoftware and training tools should beprioritised as well as low-cost satellitecommunications, internet and GSMfor UN and its partners3. Media canalso play an important role in earlywarning, as they already possessmeans of distributing information toa large population in a geographicalarea.

1 Telford et al. 2006, Tsunami Evaluation Coalition Synthesis Report, p. 40.2 Financial Times, 2005 in: Telford et al. 2006, Tsunami Evaluation Coalition Synthesis Report, p. 41.3 Bennet et al. 2006, Tsunami Evaluation Coalition, Coordination of International Humanitarian Assistance, p. 66.


On December 26 2004, the IndianOcean tsunami hit the coastlines

of South Asian and East Africancountries with major force andvirtually no one expected it. Itsconsequences were highly under-estimated. In Thailand, officialsreceived information on the tsunamiheading for the Thai coast, but in fearof creating panic among vacationersand locals, they decided not to sendout a public warning. If the Thaiofficials and other countries' officialshad issued warnings there is no doubtthat thousands of lives could havebeen saved.

An early warning system is a toolused to reach people with a warningwhen a disaster strikes or is likely todo so. A people-centred earlywarning system seeks to empowerindividuals so they can react in timeand in a way that will reduce thelosses of life, injuries, livelihood andproperty and environment damages.The tsunami and other disastrousevents such as hurricanes ravaging inthe Caribbean or droughts in Africaare great reminders of theimportance of functional earlywarning systems. With an effectiveearly warning system in place, impacton both lives and livelihoods arelikely to be minimised as families canmake last minute preparations for apotential emergency. Additionally, aquick response to a possibledevastating event is likely to limitthe damages.

GapsGlobally, significant investments ofresources have gone into developingearly warning systems for nearly allkinds of hazards. New informationand communication technologiesmake it possible to undertake riskassessments and communicatewarnings easily. But these kinds of

Efficient Early Warning System: The GlobalScenario

modern early warning systems aremainly available in rich anddeveloped countries. Manydeveloping countries neither possessthe adequate equipment and skillsnor the financial resources, and thusno early warning system for thehazards they are prone to is possible.Consequently, these countries willsuffer more from a devastatinghazard than those who can issue earlywarnings and put their emergencyprocedures on alert.

The United Nations has identifiedfour elements to be included in apeople-centred early warning system:1) knowledge of the risks faced, 2)technical monitoring and warningservice, 3) dissemination of meaningfulwarnings to those at risk, 4) publicawareness and preparedness to act4.

Activating the StakeholdersThe Hyogo Framework for Actionidentifies five priority areas fordisaster reduction actions. One of thefive priorities focusses on riskassessment and people-centred earlywarning. To develop such an earlywarning system various participantsare needed. Communities exposed torisks are essential stakeholders. Thecommunity members should knowwhat risks they are vulnerable to and

how to respond to them when theystrike. Local governments hold localknowledge on possible threats totheir communities. They have todevelop an early warning system andcommunicate them effectively to thepopulation so the potential losses willbe minimised.

At the national level, governmentsare in charge of proposing policiesand frameworks in order toimplement early warning systems. Inthe case of a damaging event,governments have the responsibilityof verifying that the warnings reachthose they are targeted at; those atrisk. Regional institutions andorganisations supply knowledge andadvice to countries that have acommon geographical environment.International bodies are scenes whererelevant data are exchanged betweencountries. Moreover, they providesupport on various subjects relatedto early warning.

Non-governmental organisations(NGOs) are important actors inspreading awareness about earlywarning among both individuals andorganisations who are to implementearly warning systems. NGOs arecritical actors at the local level. Theprivate sector can contribute invarious ways i.e. the media has amajor role in educating the peopleon disaster preparedness anddissemination of early warnings.Furthermore, the private sector holdstechnical skills and know-how inwhich can be shared with localcommunities. The science communitysupplies governments andcommunities with technical input tofurther develop early warningsystems. Specialised agencies such asmeteorological agencies giveforecasts and monitoring of weatherphenomena.

4 UNISDR. 2006. Global Survey of Early Warning Systems. Geneva.

Finding suitable methods forcommunicating warnings to the "lastmile" remains a critical challenge.


The Hyogo Framework for Action(HFA) is the result of the World

Conference on Disaster Reduction(WCDR) hosted by the United NationsInternational Strategy for DisasterReduction (UNISDR) in Japan in 2005.The HFA identified five priorities fordisaster risk reduction in which thesecond priority explicitly targetsearly warning: Identify, assess andmonitor disaster risk and enhance earlywarning. A series of initiatives aresuggested as means of improvingearly warning.

A first point is to develop people-centered early warning systems thatalso reflect demographic, gender,cultural and livelihoods characteristicsof the targeted audience. Moreover, itis crucial that warnings are issued intime and in a language understoodby the receivers.

Second, information systemsintegrated in early warning systemshave to be reviewed regularly toensure a rapid and well-coordinatedresponse when a disaster strikes.

Early Warning Systems: Concept and GlobalApplication

Third, early warning systems shouldbe an integral part of governmentalpolicy and decision-making processesand emergency management systemsat local and national levels. Periodictesting and performance assessmentsshould be conducted.

A fourth point is to implement theoutcome of the Second InternationalConference on Early Warning heldin Bonn in 2003. In order to attain anefficient early warning system.

Fifth, an implementation of theoutcome of the Mauritius Strategy forthe further implementation of theBarbados Programme for Action fora sustainable development of smallisland states including establishmentand strengthening of effective earlywarning systems and othermitigation and response measures.

These activities concerncommunication, coordination andinstitutional capacities in earlywarning. Along with this, financialinvestments are needed in order to

apply the technology required forearly warning.

When a Component FailsA people-centered early warningsystem should consist of thefollowing four components: riskassessment, warning service,communication, and preparedness. Ifone component fails to fulfill itsfunction, the whole early warningsystem is in danger. Classically, anearly warning system falls short inthe communication and preparednesscomponent. There can be variousreasons for this, but missingemergency plans may be one ofthem. During hurricane Katrina,knowledge of the risk did not reachthe general public or thepolicymakers. Hence, the disasterrespondents had limited informationto help them make wise decisionsabout evacuation. In the Indian Oceantsunami, all the four componentsfailed. A tsunami was a phenomenonbarley known to the public and notconsidered a major threat to theregion and therefore the regionremained unprepared for such anevent. Warnings were issued, butconfusion and insecurity amonggovernment officials and otherauthorities hampered thedissemination of the warning.

The Broader Potential of Early WarningThese experiences remind us of theimportance of a functional andreliable early warning system and theneed for implementing policies facili-tating the establishment of one. Earlywarning systems should thoroughlybe integrated in research, planning,cost-benefit analysis and implemen-tation (Dannenmann et al., power pointpresentation on EU-Info day on TEWS,Paris, France, Jan. 31, 2006 ). A schematic representation of an early warning system.

Source: UNISDR


Confronted with numerousdisastrous events each year, Asia

is the world's epicentre of disasters.Rapid population growth, unplannedsettlements, unsafe constructionpractices and erratic climaticconditions are factors that contributeto the wide range of disasters thatdevastate parts of the continent. Somedisasters are smaller and do not haveany impact on the macro level, whileothers kill thousands and withinseconds wipe out communities thathave been established over decadesor centuries.

In earlier times, natural disasters werelooked upon as phenomena thathappened because of nature's angerand not something that one could beprepared against. The focus was solelyon post-disaster work as relief andrehabilitation assistance. Newertechnology allows us to some extentto foresee an upcoming disaster andwe can take preventive measures tomitigate the outcome. Developedcountries have invested in bothstructural and non-structuralmeasures; while developingcountries like Bangladesh havemanaged to reduce the disaster riskthough mobilising and raisingawareness among communities.

The workshop "Community basedLast-Mile Early Warning System"held in Delhi on November 19, 2007was a follow-up to the DelhiDeclaration, the outcome of thesecond Asian Ministerial Conferenceheld on November 7–8 in Delhi.

The Asian Ministerial Conferencesare regional initiatives based uponthe Hyogo Framework for Actionagreed upon by 168 governmentsworldwide in 2005 that urge nationsto build resilience of nations andcommunities to disasters. The BeijingAction for Disaster Risk Reduction in

Delhi Declaration on Disaster Risk Reduction in Asia: Supportfor a Community-based Last Mile Early Warning System?

Asia in 2005 was an event that soughtto further increase the Asiancooperation for the implementationof the Hyogo Framework for Action.The numerous global and regionalinitiatives taken in order to increasedisaster awareness and managementare highly appreciated.

Will Asia always be the epicentre of the world's disasters?

The main goal of this 2nd AsianMinisterial Conference on disasterreduction was to review theimplementation of the Hyogopriorities of action in Asia in thecontext of the various initiatives takenby national, regional and inter-national governments during the pasttwo years and share these experiences.

In line with the Hyogo Frameworkfor Action, the Delhi Declarationencourages stakeholders at all levelsto implement the five priorities foraction (see box). To ensure a long-term financial and operationalsustainability of the existing TsunamiEarly Warning Systems it encouragesthe development of trans-boundaryend-to-end early warning systems asa priority under the existing sub-regional cooperation frameworks aswell as integrating TEWS for theIndian and Pacific Ocean into multi-hazard frameworks. Moreover, theDeclaration urges nationalgovernments to further strengthenplanning as an effective tool to reducethe loss of life and property.

Sources: Delhi Declaration on DisasterRisk Reduction in Asia 2007.

The HFA Five Priorities for Action

1. Ensure that disaster risk reductionis a national and a local prioritywith a strong institutional basisfor implementation.

2. Identify, assess and monitordisaster risks and enhance earlywarning.

3. Use knowledge, innovation andeducation to build a culture ofsafety and resilience at all levels.

4. Reduce the underlying riskfactors.

5. Strengthen disaster preparednessfor effective response at all levels.

Source: Hyogo Framework for Action2005-2015: Building the Resilience ofNations and Communities to Disasters,United Nations International Strategyfor Disaster Reduction (UNISDR).


In the aftermath of a disaster weoften hear, that lives would have

been saved if warnings were issuedand people knew what to do. Thegreat Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004was a serious wake-up call foreverybody. Disaster managers,authorities and science communitiesstarted to talk about early warningand media helped them spreadingthe word. Several initiatives havebeen taken to improve the earlywarning systems around the world.One of the major challenges is howwe can issue warnings that reach thelast mile: all the way to the peoplefacing the hazard.

Lesson ExchangeAs a follow up to India's nationalcommitment (Delhi Declaration) toDisaster Risk Reduction made at the2nd Asian Ministerial Conference inNew Delhi on November 7–8, 2007, ajoint initiative was taken byLIRNEasia and All India DisasterMitigation Institute (AIDMI) todiscuss why warnings keep failing inreaching their targets and what canbe done to change this. On November19, 2007, 25 experts participated in aone-day workshop "Communitybased Last-Mile Early WarningSystem" in Delhi. The aim of theworkshop was to exchange lessonslearned from end-to-end hazarddetection and alerting systems thatserve grassroots communities inIndia and Sri Lanka. In fact, each yearthe countries in the region areinvesting up to US $ 500 milliontowards various early warninghardware and software. South Asia isan attractive destination for ICTinvestments for early warning systems.

Why Call Them Early Warnings if They AreOften Late and Warn None?

Information and CommunicationTechnologies in Disaster Risk ReductionThe key issues during the workshopwere application of information andcommunication technologies indisaster risk reduction, early warninglessons from recent tsunamievaluations and multi hazard earlywarning systems. The workshop wasorganised in five sessions where eachsession included discussion of Indianand Sri Lankan experience. One of thehosting organisations, LIRNEasia hada leading role in sharing theirprovisional results from the HazInfoProject and to get feedback from theother participants. Other objectives

Early warning methods change, but enough?Source: www.viewimages.com

were to develop practical solutionsfor communicating risk informationto rural communities and to startdialogue on the development of aregional last mile warning system.

Mr. Prasad from WORLD5 in AndhraPradesh started the first session onmethodology, preparedness, trainingand community organisation with apresentation on application of ICTsin a community-based early warningsystem. He stressed that there is a hugegap in information dissemination,the grass root populations are totallyexcluded and the local authorities donot possess the respond capacities.

5 Welfare Organisation for Rural Lean Development.


Mr. Manian from the TNTRC6 inChennai talked about sharingknowledge on disaster warning in acommunity-based last-mile warningsystem in the second session of theprogram. TNTRC was establishedafter the 2004 tsunami as an attemptto coordinate efforts amongstakeholders. The organisation worksas an intermediary between thegovernment and civil societyorganisations.

The third session focussed ontechnical aspects in early warning andthe transmission of warning to locallevels. The CEO of EkgaonTechnologies gave an exposé onenabling communication for adapta-tion and livelihood resilience. Thetransmission of information can bedone through a number of communi-cation systems. For its HazInfoProject, LIRNEasia chose five differentcommunication systems. For aneffective dissemination process ofwarnings, there has to be a suitablelegal framework, which is not alwaysin place. Reviewing the BroadcastingServices Regulation Bill ContentCode of India, Aditya Singhnoticed that the bill does notidentify any role or give anydirection to the broadcasterfor actions in an earlywarning process or during adisaster. But the bill says thatsports are of nationalimportance and willconsequently be mandatorilybroadcasted.

The fourth session treated thedetermination of hazardfrom national level whereRamesh from the Ministry ofEarth Sciences talked abouthow the GenevaTechnologies and WorldSpace Corporation work ondeveloping alerts that can beissued in as many as 24languages.

The final session focused on the nextsteps. Samarajiva from LIRNEasiatalked about the roles of policymakers, the regulators, the privatesector and the civil society,emphasising that organisationalproblems have to be solved for earlywarning technologies to becompletely realised. Early warningis a tool among others in disasterpreparedness and plans. He told usagain that it is the governments thathave to take a leading role inproviding early warning while thecivil society and the private sector cansupport and strengthen it.

Mehul Pandya, AIDMI, expoundedlessons for early warning that can bedrawn from tsunami evaluations.Both the TEC and the UNISDRunderline the importance foradditional investments to increase thecapacities to deal with futuredisasters. Even though it is widelyacknowledged that taking earlywarning measures are goodinvestments and the 2004 tsunamireminded us further, initiatives fordisaster risk reduction and

preparedness receive a smallpercentage of international aid. Aspercentage of the total financial donoraid to development, a mere 4% isspent on disaster preparedness andearly warning. Calculations estimatethat for every dollar spent on disasterpreparedness, 10 dollars are savedduring the recovery phase. But wherefunctional early warning systems arein place, lives have been saved.AIDMI believes that stategovernment and local authorities areresponsible for issuing warningsagainst natural hazards. But an earlywarning system has to include thelocal communities if it is to beeffective.

He then discussed whether earlywarnings are usually early enough.He then went on to talk aboutdesigning an early warning systemand developing a relevant strategysaying that it must be an iterativeprocess—an organisation cannot havea prototype and just "do". Mihir Bhattspoke of having a "pre-mortem"—declaring a failure prior to a launchof an early warning system.

After this workshopAIDMI and LIRNEasiawant to host similarworkshops in Indonesiaand the Maldives tofurther discuss how onecan include the last mile inearly warning. Moreover,there are plans to holdroad shows in the fourIndian cities of Kolkata,Chennai, Mumbai and PortBlair. These will be half-day events where the civilsociety and the localgovernments will cometogether and discuss andexchange ideas forfurthering effective earlywarning practices. 6 Tamil Nadu Tsunami

Resource Centre.

The community-based last-mile Early Warning Systemworkshop was important follow-up to the 2nd Asian MinisterialConference on Disaster Risk Reduction in Asia.


During the tsunami recovery,a major emphasis has been

put to integrate disastermanagement in the reconstructionand redevelopment of TamilNadu. Recovery and recon-struction programmes can beeffective tools for increasing safetystandards.

One important aspect of disastermanagement is early warning.This has been introduced both atnational and regional levels, butstill has to be developed andestablished at the communitylevel. It is especially important tohave a top to bottom informationflow mechanism and to build thecapacity in the community so theycan respond to issued warnings.To be able to communicate awarning efficiently one has tohave an effective and reliablecommunication system, publicawareness and social infrastructure.

Early Warning in Tamil NaduSince there is an obvious need anddemand for an early warning systemat local levels the Government ofTamil Nadu in cooperation with theUnited Nations DevelopmentProgram has introduced aprogramme with the aim ofinstitutionalising and strengtheningearly warning systems in the coastaldistricts of the state. The programmefocuses on transmitting simplewarnings to those at risk. The threemain objectives are to: 1) review earlywarning systems existing fordifferent hazards, 2) strengthendissemination mechanisms of earlywarning to communities viacommunity training andparticipation, and 3) institutionalise

Emerging Regional Initiatives in Early Warning

7 CREED, IGSS and UNDP.

Community Radio

The Government of Tamil Nadu’s community radio policy has permitted5000 local radio stations to start broadcasting within the next five

years. In Nagapattinam a new radio station has been established by theDhan Foundation, VOICES and UNDP. It has programmes on a great rangeof subjects: health, education, agriculture and disaster preparedness. Theydo have a special mission to focus on the empowerment of women. Theeight-member staff works hard to produce interesting programmes and thefeedback has so far been positive.

This is a great opportunity to integrate early warning into people's lives.However, there are some issues that prevent an optimal output from thiscommunity radio. The radio sends their programmes on air through apublic narrow casting loudspeaker system. To get the best coverage, a mixof broadcast, narrow cast loudspeakers and cablecast is favourable. But thegovernment policy requires an NGO to operate in the area for at least threeyears before they get a licence to operate. Seeing that the majority of theNGOs operating in Tamil Nadu only emerged after the Indian OceanTsunami it will take another couple of years before community radios willbe common.

Sources:Tamil Nadu Tsunami Resource Centre www.tntrc.in.May 2007, Progress Report, United Nations Team for Tsunami Recovery Support.

of early warning systems withinDisaster Management Committeesand Disaster Manage-ment Teamsat the community level.

A pilot project on community-based early warning is beingimplemented in 54 villagesthroughout Tamil Nadu. Thestakeholders7 provided training to2560 members of local earlywarning teams on how to spreadrelevant warnings. The Very HighFrequency communication systemhas connected the 54 villages to theDistrict Collector's office that nowcan issue warnings to the districtswithin seconds after receiving awarning from the meteorologicalagency. The pilot is still going onand the final results are not yetavailable.

Community radio roll the hills of Sri Lankan avillage on three wheels.

Source: www.flonnet.com


The Well-prepared Japanese

Prior to the Indian Ocean tsunami,the concept and vocabluary of

"tsunami" of tsunami was a ratherunknown phenomenon to people ingeneral. But a country that for decadeshas had a tsunami-warning centre isJapan. The Japanese archipelago issituated on two different tectonicplates and is therefore constantlythreatened by earthquakes. Recallingthe great Kobe earthquake in 1995where 6434 people were crushed todeath and assets worth the staggeringsum of 200 billion USD were destroyed.

The Japan Meteorological Agency(JMA) has over the years created a hightechnology Earthquake and TsunamiObservation System. Some 80 water-borne sensors and 180 seismic stationsaround the country are send-ingsignals to ETOS around the clock.

Variety of Delivery ChannelsWith the appropriate technology toidentify an upcoming earthquake ortsunami, Japan also possesses severalwell-developed delivery channels forits emergency warnings.

The Simultaneous AnnouncementWireless System (SAWS) is a systemof receivers and transmitters for allkinds of messages that is installed bylocal authorities. The transmitters areplaced in government offices, whilereceivers are situated in different

responders' offices suchas hospitals, schools, firestations and otherlocations. Importantgovernmental andcommercial buildingshave receiver towers andloudspeakers installed.

The Mobile AnnouncerSystem is for thelocations that are notcovered by the SAWS.Fire engines withloudspeakers drivearound to spread thewarning.

In villages and ruralareas, installed sirens signal theinhabitants to turn on their TV-screens or radios for furtherinformation. In cooperation with thenational media, the JMA issues

warnings that reach the populationthrough their TV-screens. When awarning is issued it is superimposedon the television screen. In certainpublic areas television screens are onstandby to display issued warnings.

For communities without any otherwarning system, one has to call eachand every one of those at risk or inthe worst case reaching themphysically by going from house tohouse. This is evidentially very time-consuming and the warning may notreach the ones at risk in time, but it isthe only way to reach those who lackan early warning system.

With a well-developed early warningin place, Japan also has a populationthat knows how to respond to awarning. For decades, disasterawareness and preparedness has beentaught to Japanese school-childrenfrom an early age. Thus, the generalawareness of possible threats amongthe Japanese are very high and mostcitizens could evacuate withinminutes in an emergency situation.

Tsunami Waves Hitthe Japanese CoastIn November 2006 small tsunamiwaves hit the coast of northernJapan. An earthquake with themagnitude of 8.1 was measured inthe Kuril Islands which are situatednorth of Japan and south of Russia.The JMA expected waves of at leasttwo metres to hit the coast. When itis detected that an earthquake islikely to provoke a tsunami, theJapanese early warning system willissue warnings within threeminutes. This time, the tsunamiwarnings for the Russian PacificCoast were later withdrawn. Thehighest waves that reached theJapanese coast were 40 cm andneither personal injuries nor mate-rialistic damages were reported.Early warning in your living room.

The Japanese archipelago is situated on a series ofdifferent tectonic plates, making it very prone toearthquakes. Source: http cnic jp.


As with most of India, AndhraPradesh is also very prone to

natural disasters. It's internalgeographical diversity makesdifferent regions within the statevulnerable to different naturalhazards. Both floods and droughts arecommon devastating incidents. Thecoastal regions are regularly hit bycyclones. 71 cyclones have hit AndhraPradesh the last hundred years.Recently the state has suffered fromextensive damages and losses becauseof major cyclones. In November 1996a cyclone tore through the district ofGodawi and killed 976 people andcaused damages for Rs 20 billion. TheIndian Ocean tsunami also affectedAndhra Pradesh in 2004.

As a part of the last-mile hazardwarning system, the Andhra Pradesh-based NGO WORLD9 made a needsassessment on its status in 150 villagesacross the state. It was found that thestatus of dissemination of last-milehazard warning system in the coastalareas is well established at the district

level and to a certain degree also onthe mandal level10. The hazardwarning info channels are present,but the information does not reachthe people at the grassroots level,those who are the most vulnerableand face the highest risk. The mainreason why these warnings do notreach the last mile is due to absenceof effective communication systemsand qualified staff to communicatethe warning at this level.

Failing Government ResponseWhen Andhra Pradesh is hit by adisaster in one of its coastal districts,its top-level district officers have togo to the affected village to takecharge of the immediate relief worksuch as evacuation and rescueoperations. The local administrationis neither educated in these matters,nor do they have any plans andguidelines or other disasterpreparedness measures to followwhen a disaster occurs. This is notonly a problem in Andhra Pradesh,but throughout the whole

9 Welfare Organisation for Rural LeanDevelopment

10 A mandal is an association of localpeople.

subcontinent. Moreover, there islittle indication that districtauthorities recognise and support theresponse skills that exist amongcommunity members.

ICT as a Means of Early WarningIn order to create resilience and agreater awareness towards naturalhazard threats, one must work withcommunity-based organisations. It iscrucial to involve the communitiesin all development steps. WORLD hasinitiated a project for disasterintervention in five of the state'scoastal districts. One of the objecitvesfor this project is to use ICTs to warncommunities about any upcomingdisaster.

The information technology (IT)sector makes continuous progresswhich also can be of great importancein dealing with disasters. The biggestnetwork provider in Andhra Pradeshhas a good coverage even in coastalareas. As mobile equipment is furtherdeveloped, the price of it decreasesand should be affordable even at thecommunity level. If information andwarnings are to be of any help thelocal community's participation isvital.

To make an early warning systemefficient and sustainable thecommunity-members themselveshave to be involved. WORLD's projectemphasises the promotion ofstrengthened and apt community-based organisations to work ondisaster prepearedness in their localenvironment. Through education andawareness building, communitieswill be more resilient and a people-managed early warning system couldbe put in place.

Local Initiatives: Global Examples

Indian National Centre for OceanInformation Services (INCOIS)

The mission of INCOIS is to provide ocean information and advisoryservices to society, industries, government agencies and scientific

communities through sustained ocean observation, informationmanagement, modelling and constant improvements through systematicand focused research. They are also concerned about capacity building,training and education. They have announced that they are preparingtraining material for the general public on earthquakes, tsunami and stormsurges as well as web site covering the same subjects in various languages.

Because of its vulnerability to natural hazards, India has been forced to takemeasures towards reducing their impact. INCOIS's newly developedtsunami early warning system was tested September 12th 2007 when a majorearthquake shook Indonesia. The quake had a magnitude of 8.4.8 With thepresent technology, Indian authorities have two to three days lead-time toissue warnings and evacuate people at risk from upcoming cyclones. Whena tsunami is discovered, there are only hours available, this requires ahighly effective early warning system Will INCOIS fit the need?

8 www.gisdevelopment.net


Was any Lesson Learnt fromDecember 2004?

On July 17th 2006 athree-metre high

tsunami wave hit thesouth coast of Java inIndonesia after asubmarine earthquake ofa magnitude of 7.7trembled outside itssouthwestern coast.11 Thewave struck a 110-milestretch of coastlinedestroying houses, cars,motorbikes, boats andleaving at least 668causalities.

When the earthquakewas registered, officialsat the IndonesianMeteorological andGeophysics Agencyconcluded that a tsunamiwould only be likely nomore than 100 kilometresfrom the epicentre and thus suggested the implausibility of a repetition of thegreat tsunami of December 2004. Several other countries issued warnings forparts of their territories, especially islands in the Indian and Pacific Oceans.12

Both the Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre in Hawaii and The JapaneseMeteorological Agency warned the Indonesian government of a possibletsunami 45 minutes before it hit the coast. No official warning to the Indonesianpopulation at risk was issued until seven minutes before the tsunami arrived,which was not enough time for the warning to reach the last mile. The delaywas said to be to due to work on monitoring the aftershocks of the submarineearthquake.

After the devastating tsunami in 2004, an initiative of installing an earlywarning system for Indonesia was taken. A five-year project was commencedwith the final aim to place 22 buoys around Indonesian waters. At time of thetsunami only two were in place and it was later revealed that both of themhad been defective for months. The initiative lacks funding as pledges fromdonors have failed to come. An official at Indonesia's Ministry of Researchand Technology confessed that there was no siren to alert people or any otherchannels for issuing a warning in the tsunami-hit area.13 Many survivorsexplained in the aftermath that remembering photos and report from the2004 tsunami saved their lives.

1 1 Reuters, September 12th 2007.12 The Guardian, July 18th 2006.1 3 MSNBC News Service July 18th 2006.

Global WeatherData ExchangeWhen mapping communityvulnerabilities and sensitivities toweather, climate and water-relatedrisks it is essential to havehistorical data on meteorologicaland hydrological phenomena. TheWorld MeteorologicalOrganisation (WMO) keeps suchrecords and provides technicalinformation and analysis on whichthey base public warnings. TheWMO seeks to deliver accurateand reliable information in atimely manner to disastermanagers and authoritieswherever a disaster occurs. To beable to distribute this information,WMO has established various sub-agencies and programmes. Amongthese programs is the GlobalObservation System thatsharesinformation on weather,water and climate from across theworld.

The global telecommunicationsystem (GTS) is the world'smeeting place for a globalexchange of all kinds of weatherrelated data and informationincluding weather forecasts, dataon seismic activity, climateanalyses, and water and tsunami-related information. This systemis active at all times throughout theyear and thus highly important inmulti-hazard early warningsystems.

14 satellites, hundreds of oceanbuoys, aircrafts, ships and almost10 000 land-based stations conveydata. National Meteorological andHydrological Services (NMHS)around the globe emit more than50 000 reports and severalthousand charts and other digitalproducts through the common GTSevery day.

How efficient are defect buoys?Source: www.civildefence.govt.nz


Early Warning Saves LivesIn April 1991, the Mount Pinatubovolcano in the Philippines slowlywoke up after 490 years of inactivity.It was the second largest terrestrialeruption in the last century. Thenumber of deaths (300) was relativelysmall considering the magnitude ofhazard that neighbouringpopulations faced. There were severalexplanations to this:• The upcoming hazard was

identified at an early moment,• Successful application of modern

surveillance and monitoringtechniques,

• A precise calculation of thevolcano's destructive phases,

• Appropriate warnings wereissued at the right time,

• Civil defence officials and otherdisaster respondents rapidlytook actions,

• The great majority of inhabitants(60,000) were evacuated in time.

This incident itself is clear evidenceof the importance of early warningand how well it can work. Certainly,the Philippine population was awareof the possible threat of a volcanic

When Warnings Work

eruption, which made them reactquickly when warnings were issued.The respondents succeeded in clearlycommunicating and coordinatingrelief operations.

Disaster Preparedness in World ClassIsland states in the Caribbean Oceanand neighbouring countriesexperience cyclones and hurricanesannually. Accordingly, Cuba has oneof the world's best disasterpreparedness plans. Repeated mock

After 490 years of silence, Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines woke up.Source: http://news.nationalgeographic.com

drills on their plans and earlywarning system each year keeps thepopulation aware and prepared.Activation of the early warningsystem involves all stakeholders,from the army and the civil defenceto official authorities andcooperatives. Planned measures areactivated depending on the level ofthe hurricane.

With the speed of 220 kilometres perhour, Hurricane Michelle reachedCuba on November 4, 2001. Thiscategory four hurricane was thestrongest to hit the island in 50 years.The Institute of Meteorology hadalready warned about the hurricaneapproaching the coast and 87,000workers in 12 and 150 municipalheadquarters were activated. 7,00,000people were evacuated; more than 1/3 of them needed temporary shelterand other basic assistance. Also,7,77,000 animals were rescued fromMichelle. Buildings, agriculture andcommunication infrastructures wasdamaged severely. But only fivedeaths and 12 injuries werereported.

Source: Living with Risk: A global reviewof disaster reduction initiatives, UN-ISDR 2004.

To help prepare for and respond to the numerous hurricanes that Cuba faceseach year, the country has developed emergency plans and maintains a majorstand-by workforce for response.


The Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004received more media coverage

than almost any disaster in livingmemory. There are several reasonsto this. December is the time forcelebrating Christmas in most partsof the world and is traditionally aslow news period, which meant thatat the time the tsunami hit SouthAsian shores, there were numerouscolumns waiting to be filled. Thetsunami itself was a new andextraordinary phenomenon at thetime unknown to Jack and Jill.December is also the peak season fortourism and many western touristsstayed in the area when themonstrous waves hit.

This created proximity among thosesitting comfortably safe on the otherside of the world and their fellowcitizens fighting for their survival andthe local people loosing assets andloved ones in Asia and Africa. Manypeople knew or had close onesvacationing in Thailand or theMaldives and felt that the catastrophealso hit them. One can say that thisincident united the world society in away we seldom have noticedpreviously. It generated more interestand donor money than any otherevent before. The quality of the mediacoverage and how well the moneywas spent are issues open fordiscussion.

Powerful InkThey are big; they are powerful andhave a conspicuous role in today'ssociety and many people's lives.Media carries a great responsibilityas a watchdog of rulers, disseminatorof information and as a scene forexchange of opinions. Sitting at thedesk deciding which stories will enterthe spotlight of the day is not an easyjob. The news are many and so arethe considerations to be taken. Themajority of current media institutionsare dependent upon sales figures to

Early Warning Systems and the Media

assure their own survival in a tightmarket. And often, what makes salesfigures boom does not coincide withideal journalistic priorities. Seeingthat the great tsunami of 2004 receivedmajor media attention, but otherdisastrous events have received farless. The 2005 Kashmir earthquakekilled some 70,000 people but a quicksearch online confirms that thishazard got only a small part of theattention. Media coverage of otherdisasters, especially slow killers likedroughts, can be characterised in thesame way.

Can Inform, but Can't Make us ListenIn an early warning process, themedia plays a significant role but notthe only one. Climate change and itspossible impact on us and the worldwe are living in are subjects that arewidely published in different mediaacross the world. The possibilities ofmore extreme weather causingflooding, droughts and othercatastrophic events are well covered.Through their reporting, commen-taries, and articles on these topics,media is contributing to building

awareness among the public. Then,media can inform us, like a warningcan be issued through TV or radio,but they do not possess the power tomake us listen. This is why mediaalone cannot implement an earlywarning system.

The 2004 tsunami keeps remindingus of our vulnerability to the forcesof mother earth. The interest in thetsunami was exceptional and is stillwide. Several survivors of the 2006tsunami in the Solomon Islandsexplained that remembering photosand news from the one in 2004 madethem realise what was happening andthey fled the beach areas.

Mass media is an efficient approachof reaching a large population withina short timeframe. This gives mediaa special responsibility in taking partof early warnings systems around theworld. Suitable policies and particularagreements between governmentsand media institutions on how toproceed when a disaster strikesshould be in place. Effective dissemi-nation of warnings can be life saving.

Disastrous headlines are profitable.


For an early warning system tobe an efficient tool, it not only has

to be technically sound, but it alsohas to be applied in the right manner.This is to say that early warningmanagers have to know how to runit and those it is aimed at need toknow how to respond. If theseelements are missing it does not helphaving state-of-the-art equipment.During the third internationalconference on early warning in Bonn2006, the UN Special Envoy forTsunami Recovery, Bill Clintonreminded us of the following: “All thesophisticated technology won't matter ifwe don't reach real communities andpeople. Satellites, buoys, data networkswill make us safer, but we must invest inthe training, the institution building, theawareness raising on the ground.”

Power (and Frequency) to Local Communities

their newly gained disasterpreparedness knowledge to villages.The responses from villagers areoverall very positive towardsdisaster preparedness programmes.

There is a general agreement uponthe need of disaster awareness andpreparedness in our communities.Now, we do have to follow up on this.Like the Tamil Nadu TsunamiResource Centre has established acommunity radio that functions bothas an educative and communicationchannel, other disaster managers,public authorities and otherstakeholders should pursue the goalof reaching the last-mile. NGOs dohave an important role here. They aregenerally trusted and valued actorsin development work and can take aleading position in promoting andundertaking action in order to educatecommunities, disaster managers andothers in early warning.

Spreading awareness can be educational and entertaining through communityradio.

Training volunteersVarious initiatives have been madewith a focus on reaching the last mile,which too often proves to be the mostdifficult part in an early warningprocess. The Indonesian Red Crosshas teamed up with its Americansister organisation and created amulti-faceted risk reduction programthat is dedicated to spread disaster-awareness among exposed commu-nities. The Integrated Community-Based Risk Reduction Program(ICBRR), they have set up includesearly warning systems, strength-ening the local Red Cross competencein disaster preparedness-relatedactivities. Outcomes like, how theyworked with teachers, communitymembers, local governments andother stakeholders are reflected inthis initiative. With a versatile teamit is more likely to be sustainable. TheRed Cross has provided training toRed Cross volunteers that will bring

Common Alert Protocol

The Common Alert Protocol (CAP)is a plain but all-purpose tool forall-hazard emergency alerts andpublic warning exchange.

CAP is an XML-based data formatfor exchanging public warnings andemergencies between alertingtechnologies. CAP makes itpossible to disseminate a warningmessage synchronously over manywarning systems to manyapplications. CAP augmentswarning effectiveness and makesthe task of activating a warning forresponsible officials easier. CAPallows multi-audience andlanguage messaging and facilitiesfor digital images, audio and videoalong with a other features.

For more information on CAP,visit: http://xml.coverpages.org


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Do you wish to receive this publication regularly? Write to Pushkar Gupte ([email protected]). The publicationwill be sent to you by E-mail.You may also send your comments to improve this publication so that it continues to grow to be increasinglyeffective and informative.Please contribute comments, features, reports, discussion points, and essays about your work. Today!Note: This issue of southasiadisasters.net is prepared by AIDMI with major contributions from Linda Sparre, Pushkar Gupteand Manish Patel.

ALL INDIA DISASTER MITIGATION INSTITUTE411 Sakar Five, Near Natraj Cinema, Ashram Road, Ahmedabad–380 009 India

Tel: +91-79-2658 6234/2658 3607, Fax: +91-79-2658 2962E-mail: [email protected]: http://www.southasiadisasters.net

The tragedy of the 2004 IndianOcean tsunami become even

bigger without any official earlywarning system in place. TheBengkulu earthquake of September12, 2007 shows that this is unlikelyto be repeated. What we must guardagainst now is indifference towarning and against populationsthat will refuse to evacuate in theface of real danger.

Tsunami prediction is an inexact artpracticed in conditions of imperfectinformation and time pressure. Inthe Pacific Basin, which has had themost experience with tsunamis, 75per cent of all warnings are false. Butthis matters little because the falsewarnings often do not get throughto the general population.

Tsunamis are short-fuse hazards. Ittook 90 minutes for the 2004 IndiaOcean tsunami to reach the South-eastern coast of Sri Lanka. InSeptember 2007, the earthquakeoccurred at 11:10 UTC or 4:40 PM Sri

Between a Rock and a Hard PlaceLanka time. Tsunami Bulletin 001issued by the Pacific TsunamiWarning Centre at 11:24 UTC (4:54PM Sri Lanka time) projected arrivaltimes of over three hours.

Time must be allocated to decisionmaking at the national level aboutissuance of watch, warning orevacuation messages, and decisionmaking and action at communitylevel, including evacuation ifappropriate. This means that the timetaken to communicate the watch/warning/evacuation messages mustbe minimised.

This does not mean, however, thatevacuation orders should be given asquickly as possible. False evacuationorders will reduce public responseover time.

Given the massive costs associatedwith evacuation orders (not only inlost productivity but deaths, injuriesand other negative outcomes),government must be the sole

authority. Given the certainty ofblame if a tsunami does hit, over-use of warnings and evacuationorders is likely. It is important thatprocedures be established not onlyto make considered but quickdecisions about watch/warning/evacuation messages, but also tocounter the bias towards excessivewarnings and evacuation orders.

Disaster risk-reduction professionalsknow that false warnings are anconsequence of the inexact art ofpredicting the onset of hazards: butthe general public does not. If theyare subject to too many falsewarnings, they will not respondeven to true warnings.

Now that we have surmounted theproblem of not issuing warnings, wehave to address the problem of falsewarnings.

Rohan Samarajiva, Ph.D.Project Director, Last Mile HazInfo

Project & Executive Director,LIRNEasia

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