sাগ - DIE_GDI · Cradle to grave: Life Cycle Assessment from resource extraction ('cradle') to...
Transcript of sাগ - DIE_GDI · Cradle to grave: Life Cycle Assessment from resource extraction ('cradle') to...
1Pforzheim University of Applied Sciences
b i e n v e n u e
W e l c o m e
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Serdecznie Witamy
वागत دي دمآ شوخ 欢迎
ЛАСКАВО ПРОСИМО
Mirë se vini
Hoşgeldiniz
w i l l k o m m e n
b e n v e n u t o
V e l k o m m e n
W ë l l k o m m e n
Добро Дошли
مرحباLaipni lūdzam
Κ α λ ω ς ή ρ θ α τ ε
歓迎
B i e n v e n i d o
Wezon
환영합니다
Sugeng Rawuh
sাগতমSelamat Datang
Dobro DošliV i t a j t e
V í t e j t eДобре дошли
Mirëse ErdheMbemba
Mekona
Isten hozott
Ongi Etorriברוך הבא
բարի գալուստ
2Pforzheim University of Applied Sciences
Guy FournierHenning Hinderer
Shapers of the future mobility value chain
Conference:Technological pathways to low carbon: Competition and collaboration between Europe and emerging Asia
Bonn, 7-8 April, 2014Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik/ German Development Institute
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Introduction
Current value chain
Drivers of the new mobility paradigm
Shaking the market: Projected New value chain
Potential Shapers of the new value chain
Conclusion
Agenda: Shapers of the future mobility value chain
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Introduction
Current value chain
Drivers of the new mobility paradigm
Shaking the market: Projected New value chain
Potential Shapers of the new value chain
Conclusion
Agenda: Shapers of the future mobility value chain
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Current and future value chain of mobility
Headline in the newspaperDie Welt am Sonntag, 6th April 2014Bicycles are conquering Metropolises
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Raw Materials
Parts & compo-nents
Mobility services provision
Infra-structure develop-
ment
Vehicle design & sales
OEMs
Suppliers
Utilities
Third parties/new Parties
Energy Supply,Storage
Current core business Potential for expansion in the value chain
Source: modified, based on Roland Berger (2009), p. 80
Customers
Vehicle HW, SW, content
extention
Current and future value chain of mobility
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Agenda: Shapers of the future mobility value chain
Introduction
Current mobility value chain
Drivers of the new mobility paradigm
Shaking the market: projected new mobility value chain
Potential Shapers of the new mobility value chain
Conclusion
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Rising urbanization (Congestions, Parking Penury, Land use etc.)
Acci-dents
Global WarmingScarcity of resources
Dependency on EnergyExternal costs of mobility
• Growing environmental awareness of the population
• Loosing significance in image and status symbol of cars
• Legislative measures • Regulative intervention on local,
national, regional or global level
“Low carbon economy” (similar to EU or in other regions)
• Change of infrastructure(energy, IT)
• Change of standardization• New business opportunities
(e.g. integrated services)
• New customer requirements (e.g. Kuruma Banare etc.)
• New offerings (OEM, supplier, raw materials)
• New mobility business models (e.g. car sharing)
New Mobility Paradigm(low carbon oriented, energy efficient, new mobility services, intermodality)
Tech
nolo
gica
l cha
nges
(In
nova
tion
in b
atte
ry,
fuel
s, p
ower
trai
n, li
ght-w
eigh
t, pr
oduc
tion
and
dist
ribut
ion
of e
nerg
y, I
T in
fras
truc
ture
etc
.)
Current Mobility Paradigm(based on cheap fossil fuel energy, high CO2 exhausts, individual mobility)
Soci
al c
hang
es, c
hang
es in
soc
iety
Drivers of the new mobility paradigm
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Drivers of the new mobility paradigm Dependency on Energy (World Energy Outlook 2012)
source: IEA 2013
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Megatrends among others: how to address these challenges?
Collaborative Consumption
Global Warming Scarcity of resources
Vélib'
Current scenario: temperature increase of between 3.6 °C and 5.3 °C (IEA 2013)
Non renewable and renewables, especially energy
New Mobility Paradigm(low carbon oriented, energy efficient, new mobility services, intermodality)
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Can mobility stay affordable: on the verge of a new revolution?
Inventingsustainable mobility
- Scarcety of oil
- Dependency
- Global warming
- Congestion etc.
Otto motor
Diesel motorLohman Porsche
Electric motor
Ford T
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The Globalisation Debate: what are the benefits?- Limited availability of natural resources -
the rate of petroleumproduction tends to follow a bell-shaped curve (peak oilproduction)
ASPO estimation: 2008 or 2010
USA, OPEP and Oilcompanies: 2030, Criticism: itdoes not consider
– likely resource growth,– application of new
technology,– basic commercial factors,– the impact of geopolitics
on production
But economic development in China and India could advancethe date of the peak
Hubbert peak theory (non OPEC, non FSU Oil production)
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Scarcety of oil: increased risk for energy security
Geology, depletion ofresources
Lack of investment
Production policy ofthe key regions
Source: www.energywatchgroup.org
High risk of a supply crunch
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World oil production
IEA: World energy Outlook 2008
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Natural liquid gas
Non conventional crude oil (incl. Canadian oil sands)
Crude oil – additional EOR (Enhanced Oil Recovery)
Crude oil – fields yet to be found
Crude oil – fields yet to be developed
Crude oil – currently producing fields
Energy challenge: dependence on oil
Source: International Energy Agency 2008
Source: Energy Information Administration 2009, p. 2
• World fossil fuel production increased by 2.9% in 2008, reaching the highest level ever recorded
• Current price for crude oil: 78 $/barrel (brent, October 2009)
• Estimation of EIA: 120-180 $/barrel in 2030
• Estimation of IEA: 200 $/barrel in 2030
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Current energy policies are not sustainable
Source: IEA (International Energy Agency) 2010
Non conventional crude oil (incl. oil sand)
Natural liquid gas
Crude oil – fields yet to be found
Crude oil – fields yet to be developed
Crude oil – currently producing fields
Drivers of the new mobility paradigm Scarcity of resources: Peak oil
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Drivers of the new mobility paradigm Scarcity of resources: Peak oil
Current energy policies are not sustainable
18Pforzheim University of Applied SciencesInstitut für Zukunftsstudien und Technologiebewertung (IZT), adelphi, Berlin 2011
Vuln
erab
ility
Risk of shortages in supplies
Rare EarthsRare Earths
Copper: for many applications, no substitute known
Niobium: high-strength, lightweight steels
Rhenium: processing of biomass to fuel
Automotive industry: Rare Earths:
Electromobility, catalyser Lithium: Batteries
Earths and stone
Metals
Relevant for futureautomobile needs
Drivers of the new mobility paradigm Scarcity of resources: raw material criticality in Germany
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Screening of raw material criticality in Germany (equal weighting, Medium / long term indicators)
Institut für Zukunftsstudien und Technologiebewertung (IZT), adelphi, Berlin 2011
Risk of shortages in supplies
Rare EarthsRare Earths
Vuln
erab
ility
Earths and stone
Metals
Relevant for futureautomobile needs
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Drivers of the new mobility paradigm Limited availability of raw materials
In 2014, 95% of rare earths are comingfrom China
- USA, Europe and Japan are investingin alternatives
- New mines will open (Mount Weld en Australie) or will beopen soon
Rare Earths Production
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Estimation of the quantitative contribution and the effect of latency measures to improve the supply of raw materials
Institut für Zukunftsstudien und Technologiebewertung (IZT), adelphi, Berlin 2011
Substitution
Recycling
Develop mining in home country
Develop mining in foreign countries
Trade policy
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Drivers of the new mobility paradigm Limited resources
Cradle to grave: Life Cycle Assessment from resource extraction ('cradle') to use phase and disposal phase ('grave'):
– usefull materials are destroyed or wasted– downcycling
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Until yet:
Incineration plant: major risk of generating and dispersing contaminants and toxic substances:
– copper, which is present in printed circuit boards and cables, acts a catalyst for dioxin formation when flame-retardants are incinerated
– hazardous waste (disposal area)– Ash (road construction)
=> loss valuable of trace elements which could have been recovered had they been sorted and processed separately
15.000 t cupper are wasted in Germany in 1 Year (about 100 Mio. € )
Production of 1 ton cupper necessitates 600t hazardous waste
=> sort and process materials separately to recover them
Circular economy: exemples
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Biomimetic approach
Definition of Cradle to Cradle®
– Instead of ecological efficiency (≈ LCA), ecological effectiveness (≈ „consistency“)
– Nature as a model, example cherry tree:
• copious blossoms and fruit "inefficient and wasteful!" but „effective“
• nutrients that nourish the ecosystem, everything around it
• without depleting its environment
– Holistic approach
Cradle to Cradle®
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Waste = Food
Michael Braungart and William McDonough
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Biological nutrients
Compostable
Cradle to Cradle®: material as nutrients
circular economy
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Cradle to Cradle®: material as nutrients
Eco-leasing: for example for cars, televisions, carpets, computers and refrigerators
Technical nutrientsNot compostable
Productshave to be conceived in a way that allows them to be decomposed easily after use
circular economy
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Motivation - use of resources: Nissan Green Program
95% resource recovery rate for cars at the end-of-life stage in Japan.
100% resource recovery rate at domestic production plants in Japan
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Au final, cette mesure de circulation alternée donne un formidable coup de projecteur aux solutions de transport alternatives telles que le covoiturage, les transports en commun (gratuits) ou encore la voiture électrique.
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Drivers of the new mobility paradigm Urbanisation
More than 50% of the worldpopulation lives in urban areas
– 72% of the European population
– 81% of the US population
75% of the future journeys will be done in urban areas
Source: United Nations 2005
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Drivers of the new mobility paradigm Urbanisation
More single households
50% of the world population lives in urban areas
– 72% of the European population– 81% of the US population
75% of the future journeys will bedone in urban areas
– 15-20% of the cars in France never leave town, 30% of thevehicles are second cars
75% of European drivers drive theircars less than 40 km in one day
– Germany: 38,5km– France: 35,3km– UK: 29,9km
Source: Weyman 2007
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World Urbanization Prospects
http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/WUP2005/2005wup.htm
Drivers of the new mobility paradigm Urbanisation
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Cost estimation in Europe:– Global warming– Noise 1,1% GDP– Air pollution– Traffic Congestion 1,1% GDP
The aim of EU is to internalise the external costs of transportation
“Greening Transport Package“
Target for the EU to reduce its CO2 emissions by 20% until 2020, or 30% if a broader international agreement is reached
Drivers of the new mobility paradigm Transportation as a driver of external costs
Paris March 2014
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Drivers of the new mobility paradigm Future CO2 emissions objectives in Europe
ICE powertrain optimization is unlikely to be enough to meet European CO2 emission limits of 95 g/km by 2020
Source: Roland Berger 2009, p. 28, modified
2040 (est.)
110 g/km
30 g/km
Germany 2010: 151,2 g/km
European Union 2010: 140,3 g/km
France 2010: 130,5 g/km
20212025 (est.)68-78 g/km
CO2 fleet emission2020 (est.)
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Drivers of the new mobility paradigm:Kuruma Banare (車離れ)
Japan: – Between 2001 and 2005 the Japanese
without vehicles raised from 21,3 to 32,1 %
– From 20 to 50y., more important than a car:• Internet (74 %)• Mobile (56 %)
– Other reasons (Jama):• Growing urbanisation (congestion)• Local public transportation• Regulation & taxes
A similar development can be observe in Germany and France
5,4 millions in 2013
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Drivers of the new mobility paradigm: Kuruma Banare (車離れ)
JAMA - Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association
Japan
Kuruma Banare means "demotorization" - a trend that has been affecting the Japanese auto market since 1990
Expeted car ownership in April 2014: 4.75 millionsOwner [Population (Total) 2012: 127.6 million inhabitants]
Reasons for decrease
The youth have fallen out of love with the automobile Smartphones and laptops getting more important than
owning a car Very high taxes (4.1 x greater than in USA in 2008) Growing urbanisation (congestion) Local public transportation
Similar development can be observe in Germany and France!
Decrease of about 1.15 millionmotorcycles sales
0.35 millions owner(sales) in 2013
Decrease of about 3 millioncar sales
5.46 millions owner(sales) in 2013
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A trend toward "demotorization" is developing mainly amongthe younger generation in industrial countriesExample: Japan ‐ Ranking of interests of university students [%]
PAST STUDENTS (now in 40s, 50s) PAST STUDENTS (now in 20s, 30s) CURRENT STUDENTS
1 PC2 Fashion3 Communication devices4 Domestic travel5 Music6 Dining out7 Foreign travel8 Portable Music Player9 Reading10 Cars11 Movies12 Animation, Manga13 Video games14 Camera15 Watches16 Cosmetics17 TV18 Jewelry19 Licentiates, Learning20 Audio 14,3
1518,318,72224,32525,325,325,325,3313132,733,73737,339,747,750,7 1 PC
2 Fashion3 Portable Music Player4 Communication devices5 Domestic travel6 Music7 Reading8 Animation, Manga9 Video games10 Dining out11 Movies 12 Camera13 Foreign travel14 TV15 Licentiates, Learning16 Cosmetics17 Cars18 Watches19 Furniture, Interiors20 Jewelry 17,9
21,722,622,826,227,328,833,93535,537,638,44242,943,74449,950,653,962,11 Fashion
2 Domestic travel3 Dining out4 Reading5 Music6 Movies 7 Cars8 PC9 Foreign travel10 Audio11 Camera12 TV13 Animation, Manga14 Jewelry15 Sport goods16 Cosmetics17 Watches18 Licentiates, Learning19 Portable Music Player20 Motorcycles 9,7
10,010,311,312,314,015,015,717,019,720,323,725,727,027,731,331,732,034,035,7
Drivers of the new mobility paradigm:Kuruma Banare (Japan)
Kalmbach, Ralf u.a. (2011), p. 26.
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In France, similar results: IFOP Study 2010
Teichmann 2010
Drivers of the new mobility paradigm:Kuruma Banare (Germany)
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Drivers of the new mobility paradigm:Sharing Economy - car-sharing
Growing diversity of car-sharing systems
1. Two-way models (most common model)2. Peer-to-peer car-sharing (33 operators worldwide)3. One-way models (e.g. Car2Go, DriveNow)
Source: embarq
Collaborative Consumption and
Car-Sharing scales up worldwide
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Drivers of the new mobility paradigm Cradle to Cradle®
„Wir müssen die Intelligenz endlich an den Anfang der Produktentwicklung stellen.“
Braungart, Der Kreisläufer (2011)
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Drivers of the new mobility paradigm Circular Economy
Closed-loop life-cycle systems
http://www.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/circular-economy/circular-economy/interactive-system-diagram
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Drivers of the new mobility paradigm Circular Economy
Closed-loop life-cycle systems
McKinsey 2014
Since 2009, resource prices have rebounded more quickly than global economic output
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Circular Economy Closed-loop life-cycle systems
McKinsey 2014
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Circular Economy Closed-loop life-cycle systems
McKinsey 2014
Since 2009, resource prices have rebounded more quickly than global economic output
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Circular Economy Closed-loop life-cycle systems
McKinsey 2014
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Drivers of the new mobility paradigm:Digital Economy: connected cars
Source: embarq
Digital natives are expecting „smartphone on wheels“
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Drivers of the new mobility paradigm
http://images.zeit.de/auto/2013-04/neuwagenkaeufer1.jpg http://images.zeit.de/auto/2013-04/neuwagenkaeufer2.jpgZeit-Online; Junge Leute pfeifen auf Neuwagen, 18. April 2013
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Future CO2 emissions objectives in Europe
Note: The size of the bubble is proportional to the number of vehicles registered in Europe.
Distance to 2012 target by individual manufacturers in 2010 (only manufacturers registering > 100 000 vehicles in Europe)
Thirty-two manufacturers, representing almost 80 % of 2010 registrations in the EU, already achieve their 2012 specific emissions targets two years in advance
www.eea.europa.eu
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Shaking the marketSpeed of transformation
Speed oftransformation
Scarcityof oil and other valuable
resources
Technology(Innovation, Energy
paths)
Industry(OEM, Supplier)
Customer(needs, technologicalattractiveness, new
business and finance models, price)
Infrastructure(bio fuel, electricity
grid, Internet)
Politics(Regulation:
environmental constraints, dependency)
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Shaking the marketSpeed of transformation
Depends on price of crude oil
Environmental regulation (governments, town) and incentives,
Technological evolution, availability of Li-Ion, technological attractiveness
Customer perception and acceptance:– New lifestyle– New technique (with growing range, growing potential customer)– New business and finance models (better place, leasing)– Cost savings in cost of use (maintenance, fuel)
50Pforzheim University of Applied Sciences
Agenda: Shapers of the future mobility value chain
Introduction
Current mobility value chain
Drivers of the new mobility paradigm
Shaking the market: projected new mobility value chain
Potential Shapers of the new mobility value chain
Conclusion
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Effects on the value chain of mobility:New business models and new business opportunities
Raw Materials
Parts & compo-nents
Mobility services provision
Infra-structure develop-
ment
Vehicle design & sales
Energy Supply,Storage
Vehicle HW & SW extension
www
Reuse/Recycling
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Rajouter internet as enabler for Customer centered orientation
Satisfy the customer mobility needs
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Collaborative consumption, (community consumption), mobilityservices
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Agenda: Shapers of the future mobility value chain
Introduction
Current value chain
Drivers of the new mobility paradigm
Shaking the market: Projected New value chain
Potential Shapers of the new value chain
Conclusion
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Effects on the value chain of mobility:Potential shapers of the value chain
Raw Materials
Parts & compo-nents
Mobility services provision
Infra-structure develop-
ment
Vehicle design & sales
Energy Supply,Storage
Vehicle HW & SW extension
Reuse, Reduce, Recycle
ShaperControl the value chainthrough raw materials
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Secure the supply of rawmaterials (e.g. rare earths, niob, cobalt, cupper) and thevalue Chain through:
– Warehouse Management
– Reduce,– Reuse,– Recycling materials
– Substitution of material
– Engagement andinvestments in mining
– Influence policy
Raw Materials
Parts & compo-nents
Vehicle design & sales
Reuse, Reduce, Recycle
ShaperControl the value chainthrough raw materials
Effects on the value chain of mobilityShaper through raw materials
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Effects on the value chain of mobility: Flow of the reuse of rare earth metals
„Cradle to Cradle® “ instead of „cradleto grave“
Eco-leasing
http://world.honda.com/news/2012/c120417Reuse-Rare-Earth-Metals/index.html
Reuse
Reuse
Reuse
Closed-loop life-cycle systems
The example of Honda
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Nissan Green Program
95% resource recovery rate for cars at the end-of-life stage in Japan.
100% resource recovery rate at domestic production plants in Japan
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Motivation - use of resources: end-of-life vehicle recycling (Renault)
Beneficial reuse in the automotive industry :
– Lower in Price (ca. 40%)– environmental benefits
• Reduced material consumption
• Reduced CO2 emissions• Vehicle can continue to be
used due to favorable repair prices
• (not a total loss)– Preserving and creating jobs that
can be difficult to shift out of the country
Insurers are drivers
3 requirements:
– retraceability– Standard for quality– Same quality of service as
for new parts
Problems:
– Yield is lower
Market: 53 billion for spare parts, 2% of which are reused (F in 2009)
Objective: recover 95% of the mass of each vehicle by 2015
60Pforzheim University of Applied Sciences
Effects on the value chain of mobility:Potential shapers of the value chain
Raw Materials
Parts & compo-nents
Mobility services provision
Infra-structure develop-
ment
Vehicle design & sales
Energy Supply,Storage
Vehicle HW & SW extension
ShaperControl the value chain
through customer relationship and lock-in strategy
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Shaper-Adapter-Relationship in internet
Effects on the value chain of mobility:Shaper and Adapter in the digital economy
Shapers- coordinate,- provide information,- provide a platform, and
connect the development network with customers
- create standards and hence
- lock-in customers permanently
Adapters - focus on sub-products
for this network
Result:- co-opetition in the
business web
AdapterInternal circle
AdapterExternal circle
RegisteredAdapter
independantAdapter
Franz 2003
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Innovation cycle in the automotive industry in comparaison with IT Industry
‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐
Lebensdauer (48
‐84 Mon
ate)
Entwicklun
gsprozess (36
‐48 Mon
ate)
Entwicklun
gsprozess (6‐9 Mon
ate)
Lebensdauer (6‐24
Mon
ate)
Die Lebensdauer eines Fahrzeugs ist wesentlich länger als der Innovationszyklus in der Informations‐ und Kommunikationstechnologie
Zeitlicher Ablauf der Produktentwicklungsprozesse: Automobil‐ gegenüber IKT‐Produkt
AUTO HANDY
Markteinführung
Konzept 1
Anforderung 2
Designentscheidung/entgültige Spezifikation 3
Prototyp/Test 4
Anlauf Produktion 5
Wachstum 6
Reife 7
12345
6
7
8
KonzeptAnforderungDesignentscheidung/entgültige Spezifikation
Prototyp/TestAnlauf Produktion
Wachstum
Reife
Rückgang
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Potential future mobility value chain with Shaper-Adapter-Relationship
Effects on the value chain of mobilityPotential Shaper and Adapter in the new mobility value chain
Transfer theBusiness Web Model to a possible futureMobility Value Chain
Customer orientatedbusiness modelsimilar to thedigital economy
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The e-mobility ecosystem: Selling Mobility
Customer needs:
• Vehicle suited to trip purpose• price performance ratio • Support of any problem• Flexible and reliable service
Ecosystem
Benefits for the customer:
• Lowering transaction costs• The right to use the car can be combined with other
products or services• Products and services fits perfect together• Adjustment to each individual user by personal profiles
Customer contact
Locked into an ecosytem
CustomerEffects on the value chain of mobilityShaper providing a mobility ecosystem?
Customer orientatedbusiness model
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Switching costs:
Cost of searching(products or alternatives)
investment costs,learning costs,synthetic costsPychological
based
Lock-in through:• Innovation• Customer contact, Vendor contract• Technology (e.g. specifications, closed platform)• Brand specific training
The e-mobility ecosystem: Lock-In-Strategy,leading to a natural monopoly
Opportunity for the shaper:• Economies of scale• Economies of scope• Enhance the loyality of customers• Control over the whole value chain in
terms of quality & costs
Ecosystem
Customer contact
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Agenda: Shapers of the future mobility value chain
Introduction
Current mobility value chain
Drivers of the new mobility paradigm
Shaking the market: projected new mobility value chain
Potential Shapers of the new mobility value chain
Conclusion
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Conclusion:
Thank you for your attention! Prof. Dr. Guy Fournier
Prof. Dr. Henning HindererPforzheim University, [email protected]
“The best way to predict the future is to create it“Peter F. Drucker
The current mobility paradigm based on cheap fossil fuel energy, high CO2exhausts and individual mobility will move to:
– An intermodal mobility with low carbon emissions and new mobility services.
– New business models and new business opportunities will be developed and
– New players and new shapers in the value chain will arise.