SA Listed Property Sector Total Returns · 3 Sector exposure by value SA Listed Property Exposure...
Transcript of SA Listed Property Sector Total Returns · 3 Sector exposure by value SA Listed Property Exposure...
IncomeandCapitalSAListedPropertySectorTotalReturns
-20,0%
-10,0%
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
CapitalGrowth
IncomeGrowth
TotalGrowth
Source:Bloomberg,STANLIBResearch,September2016
2
DespiteslowingGDPgrowthStrongIncomeGrowthfromtheListedPropertySector
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
'02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16
GDP growth DPS growth
Source:AviorResearch,September2016
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SectorexposurebyvalueSAListedPropertyExposure
54,87%29,58%
11,90%
2,94% 0,71%
Retail
Office
Industrial
Residential
Other
Source:STANLIBResearch,CompanyData,September2016
Toughandcompetitiveofficemarket
4Source:STANLIBResearchMay,June&July2016
Competitiveretailenvironmentandincreasingsupply
5
Source:AttacqCompanyPresentation,STANLIBResearch,MayandSeptember2016
Demandforretailspacedrivenbyinternationalandlocalbrands
6Source:STANLIBResearch,GoogleImages,September2016
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NewequityraisedoverthelastfewyearsStrongappetiteforlistedproperty
Source:STANLIBResearch,CompanyData,October2016
Year Amount Raised
2011 R16bn
2012 R11bn
2013 R18bn
2014 R40bn
2015 R36bn
2016sofar R26bn
TOTAL R147bn
RecentListingsHammerson
EPPGTC
ListingscomingupLibertyTwoDegreesSpearPropertiesStudentHousing?
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37%exposuretooffshorepropertiesIncreasedoffshoreexposureintheSAListedPropertyIndex
99% 96% 95% 90% 89%81%
74%63%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Current
ZAR USD EUR GBP AUD
Source:AviorResearch,September2016
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ForwardYieldandIncomeGrowthSouthAfricanListedPropertySector
*EXCLUDINGRES,NEP,FFA,FFB,IPF,ROC,STP,MSP(THESETOGETHEREQUATETO48%OFTHESAPYMARKETCAP)Source:StanlibResearchNov2016
RES
OCTTEXREB
EMI
SAC
VKEGRTRDF
HYPNEP
RPL
DLTAPF AWA
AIADIA
DIB
FFA
FFB
TWR
TDH
BWNHPB
ILU
ITU
IAPIPF
EQUFVT
CRPIHL
SSSROC
ATT
PIVING CCO
SGA
SGB
MDP
SRE
STP
NFP
MSP
LDO
HMN
EPP
SARGRP
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0,00% 1,00% 2,00% 3,00% 4,00% 5,00% 6,00% 7,00% 8,00% 9,00% 10,00% 11,00% 12,00% 13,00% 14,00% 15,00%
Expe
cted
dividen
dgrow
thover3
years(C
AGR)
12monthexpecteddividendyield
SA 10-yearbondyieldSAPY forwardyield(7.0%)
SAPY ex-offshore(7.9%)*SAPYoffshore(5.5%)
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DividendgrowthstillreasonableSAListedPropertyOutlook
Source:Bloomberg,STANLIBResearch,September2016
0-12mDPSgrowth
12m-24mDPSgrowth
24m-36mDPSgrowth
3YearCAGR
Dividendgrowth:Dividendpayingcompanies 8.82% 7.27% 6.89% 7.66%
Dividendgrowth:Development companies 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
Dividendgrowth:JSAPYINDEX 9.07% 8.10% 7.92% 8.36%
Dividendgrowth:JSAPYINDEX(EXOFFSH0RE) 7.53% 7.02% 7.09% 7.21%
Dividendgrowth:JSAPYINDEX(OFFSHORE) 12.11% 10.14% 9.45% 10.56%
Dividendgrowth:UNIVERSE 8.78% 7.23% 6.86% 7.62%
IncomeandCapitalSAListedPropertySectorTotalReturns
-20,0%
-10,0%
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
CapitalGrowth
IncomeGrowth
TotalGrowth
Source:Bloomberg,STANLIBResearch,September2016
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ForlocalbalancedportfoliosAddinglistedpropertyhashelpedtoboostreturns
13,7
11,011,5
9,5
7,3
14,1
11,4 11,8
9,8
7,1
14,6
11,7 12,1
10,2
6,9
15,0
12,1 12,4
10,6
6,8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
15 yrs 10 yrs 5 yrs 3 yrs 1 yr
Annu
alis
ed R
etur
n (%
)
Investment Horizon
Annualised Returns of Portfolios with Different Weightings in Property
0% Property 5% Property 10% Property 15% Property
Source:BNPCadiz,September2016
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➜ Demandforretailspaceinbiggershoppingcentres
➜ Increasedoffshoreexposure,portfolioandcurrencydiversification
➜ Corporateaction– mergersandtake-overs
➜ Risingbondyields➜ Globalmarketsvolatility➜ Increasingofficevacancies➜ Competitiveretaillandscape➜ Increasingoperatingcosts➜ Loweconomicgrowth
Upsid
eRisk
DownsideRisk
SAListedPropertyConclusion
THANKYOU
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