Livestock and Climate Change inSouth Asia

Carolyn Opio

26 August 2008

Dhaka

Content

• The Livestock sector in South Asia• Livestock and climate change• Mitigation and Adaptation• Policy options and conclusions

The Livestock sector in South Asia

Drivers of the Livestock Sector

• Demand Drivers• population growth: 2.1% p.a.;+ 60 % by 2050; + 560 million in India, 200 million in Pakistan, 130 million in Bangladesh by 2050• income growth: 2.9% p.a.; Per capita income projected to grow at 4.7% p.a. (2000-2030)• urbanization: Increasing urban population but more than 57% of population still rural by 2050• Socio-cultural factors: Beef and pork, lacto-vegetarianism

• Supply Drivers• cheap grain: decreasing prices over the past four decades, recent upsurge• technological change: genetics, animal health, feeding, transport• cheap energy: declining prices, recent surge

Estimated distribution of human population

Trends in the livestock sector

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1961 1971 1981 1991 2001

Mill

ion

met

ric to

nnes

Milk

Meat

Meat and milk production in South Asia

Contribution to meat production by livestock specie in South Asia

Shares of production, 2000 Growth rates in production, %

54%

18%

8%

20%

Beef Sheep & goat meat Pig meat Poultry meat

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1961-2002 2000-2030

Beef

Sheep & goat

Pig meat

Poultry meat

Farming systems

• Land-based livestock systems (grazing and mixed)

• Predominately ruminants, local indigenous breeds with low productivity

• Dependent on natural resources: grazing and crop-residues

• Intensive livestock systems• Monogastrics (mainly poultry) and dairy, improved breeds and animal health

• Use of feed-grain and supplements• Characterized by growing intensities, increasing scales of production and vertical integration

Estimated distribution of livestock production systems

Livestock and Land Use in South Asia

Increasing land scarcity

Trends in land-use area for livestock production and production of meat and milk in South Asia

• Intensification has occurred• production growing faster than land area

• intensification achieved through improved breeds, animal health, shift to poultry, etc.

Trends in feed use in South Asia

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1970 2002

Oilcakes Cereals Brans Roots & Tubers

Meat and milk Consumption in South Asia

Kg/person/year

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Kg/

pers

on/y

ear

1970 1980 1990 2000 2015 2030 2050

Meat Milk

Meat Consumption by livestock type in South Asia

Kg/person/year

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1969/71 1979/81 1989/91 1999/01 2015 2030 2050

kg/p

erso

n/ye

ar

Beef Sheep & goat meat Pig meat Poultry meat

South Asia: Net trade in milk and meat

-5000

-4000

-3000

-2000

-1000

0

1000

1969/71 1979/81 1989/91 1999/01 2015 2030 2050

'000

met

ric to

nnes

MEAT

MILK

Implications for Greenhouse Gas Emissions

A food-chain perspective of GHG emissions

� Livestock sector an important source of GHG• Emissions from livestock rearing

• Methane from enteric fermentation• Methane from animal manure

• Emissions from feed production

• chemical fertilizer fabrication and application• on-farm fossil fuel use• livestock-related land use changes• C release from soils�[Rangeland and grassland burning]

• Post harvest emissions

• slaughtering and processing• international transportation�[national transportation]

High potential for GHG emission reduction

Past and projected methane emissions from enteric fermentation

• CH4emission projected to increase

• India and Nepal: 70% increase by 2020 (relative to 1990)

• Pakistan: 54% increase

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1990 2000 2010 2020

Mt C

O2

eq.

Pakistan

Nepal

India

Source: US-EPA, 2006

Emissions from manure management: Past and projected trends

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1990 2000 2010 2020

Mt C

O2

eq.

Pakistan

Nepal

India

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1990 2000 2010 2020

Mt C

O2

eq.

Pakistan

Nepal

India

CH4 EMISSIONS N2O EMISSIONS

Source: US-EPA, 2006

Impacts of Climate Change on the Livestock Sector

Resource price:

– High feed costs (production; competition for feedstock resources for biofuel production)

– High energy costs

Agro-ecological changes:

– fodder quantity and quality– host-pathogen interactions– Competition for resources (land, water)

Indirect impacts

– extreme weather events – disease epidemics

– productivity losses (physiological stress) due to temperature increase

– water availability

– extreme weather events– drought and floods– disease epidemics– productivity losses (physiological stress) due to temperature increase

– water availability

Direct impacts

Non-grazing systemsGrazing systems

Policy agenda – what is at stake?

• Challenges at several levels• Food security: Productions systems under CC scenario are threatened

• Poverty and livelihoods implications: Due to the importance of the sector for a large % of population in South Asia which for many is a pathway out of poverty

• Public health implications: Related to effects on nutrition and emerging diseases

• Biodiversity loss

Mitigation and adaptation

Mitigation and Adaptation

• Different mitigation & adaptation strategies to address differences in farming systems

� Land-based systems: Production takes place in the environment and therefore more sensitive to CC • High reliance on natural resource base • low potential to adapt due to low access to technology, information and capital

• + not dependent on feed, energy inputs • + adapted to harsh environment conditions

� Intensive systems: Production takes place in ‘artificial environment’ hence impact can be mitigated • + have potential to adapt easily due to access to technology and capital

• Depend on purchased inputs thus impacted through high resource prices

Mitigation Options (1)

• Reduction of methane from Enteric fermentation• Animal productivity gains-Improved breeds, animal health. A dairy cow in India emits 40 times as much methane per liter of milk than her European counterpart

• feed formulation: improved feeding practices – high grain diets, improved pasture quality

• Reduction of emissions from Manure management • balanced feeding, reducing methane emissions and lowering the N content in animal diets

• Energy recovery from animal waste for biogas production (Anaerobic digestion)

• Targeting manure application (dosing, timing and application techniques – rapid incorporation, injection)

Mitigation Options (2)

• Measure to Control Land Use change• intensification of animal production (genetics, animal husbandry) and feed production, improved pasture management (optimizing stocking numbers, rotational grazing, fertilization, improved pastures species, fodder banks)

• Measures to avoid deforestation (land use polices, subsidies, etc.)

• Conserve/restore C and N in cultivated soils and rangelands• increase tree cover and live fences• pasture management: pasture rotation and improved pasture species• rehabilitation of degraded rangelands to increase carbon pool

� promotion of practices such as Agro-forestry systems, conservation agriculture

• Reduce emissions related to inputs into the production process e.g. feed, fertilizer

Adaptation

• Adaptation within current production system• Technological adjustments: improved breeds, shading, sprinkling, increasing air circulation, improved management practices e.g., stocking rates, rotational grazing, improved pasture species, improved resource efficiency use (land, water and feed), feed conservation techniques

• Risk management measures: Weather-based insurance schemes, climate information systems e.g. early warning systems, risk fund schemes e.g. micro credit, feed storage

• Infrastructure and services: provision of Water points, appropriate shades, enhanced veterinary services, extension services, fodder banks, feed lots

Adaptation

• Changes of production systems• Technological measures: breed selection and improvement for greater tolerance and increased productivity, intensification of livestock production, changing location of livestock production

• Diversification: substitution of livestock species(drought resistant species, monogastrics for ruminants), income diversification (seasonal/permanent), changes in land use choices e.g. agro-forestry practices, conversion of marginal grazing land to forests

Policy instruments - mitigation

• Payment for environmental services – e.g. Kyoto’s Clean Development Mechanism • Support to reduction in emissions from animal waste management e.g. Indian farmers engaged in biogas production participation in carbon trading on Chicago Climate Exchange

• Support to initiatives involving afforestation and reafforestation• carbon sequestration in rangelands through pasture improvement?? : Huge potential to reduce GHG but not eligible under CDM

• Subsidies for intensification and improved land tenure / pasture management, forest conservation policies

• Promotion of Good practices: voluntary, regulated or condition to access subsidy schemes• manure storage and land application• soil conservation

Policy instruments - adaptation

• Support to technology transfer, especially where resources and access to information are limited

• Payment for environmental services: Support to practices aimed at carbon sequestration

• Development of frameworks for insurance schemes(weather, diseases), climate information systems (early warning systems), credit schemes, income diversification opportunities

• Institutional policy adjustments: agricultural policy support and investment support

Policy contextAddressing CC within the broader context of various issues

• Other environmental issues• biodiversity: Major threat through habitat change and pollution • water resource depletion: feedcrops, pollution, impacts on water cycles

• The social and health dimensions of livestock • estimated 200 million poor people depend on livestock, entirely or partially

• Importance of the socio-cultural dimension of livestock• important source of protein and micro-nutrients to many of the 298 million food insecure people

• Contribute to health problems of the affluent (obesity, cancers,cardio-vascular diseases)

• Current high food prices on mid-term perspective (demographic changes, economic growth, bio-fuels, climate change)

Concluding remarks (1)

• High food and feed prices on mid-term perspective

• Livestock production is however projected to (almost) double by 2050

• Under a “business as usual” scenario environmental impacts will continue

• Pressure on resources shall increase and resilience of systems will be challenged

Concluding remarks (2)

• Technology options are generally available to mitigate environmental impacts. For climate:

• Intensification (livestock and feed production)• Waste management• Carbon conservation/sequestration above and below ground

• Development and implementation of policy measures are required, especially in hotspots of environmental impact

THANK YOU