S.1 World Energy Outlook

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S.1 World Energy Outlook Our energy system is based on non-renewable resources. A non- renewable energy resource is the energy obtained from static stores that remain bound unless released by human interaction. They are also called finite supplies. Nuclear fuels and fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas) are non-renewable resources . Currently, fossil fuels and nuclear energy account for 87% of world total primary energy supply. The heavy reliance on finite supplies poses a challenge in terms of security of energy supply. Also, as fossil fuel resources become scarcer and the demand increases the economic burden from importing these fuels will also increase. Additionally, the use of fossil fuels in such worldwide scale represent a important issue in terms of environment that can have negative consequences for the planet and for the human civilization. Different sources of energy Environment Supply Economy Energy

Transcript of S.1 World Energy Outlook

S.1 World Energy Outlook

Our energy system is based on non-renewable resources. A non-renewable energy resource is the energy obtained from static stores that remain bound unless released by human interaction. They are also called finite supplies.

Nuclear fuels and fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas) are non-renewable resources.

Currently, fossil fuels and nuclear energy account for 87% of world total primary energy supply.

The heavy reliance on finite supplies poses a challenge in terms of security of energy supply.

Also, as fossil fuel resources become scarcer and the demand increases the economic burden from importing these fuels will also increase.

Additionally, the use of fossil fuels in such worldwide scale represent a important issue in terms of environment that can have negative consequences for the planet and for the human civilization.

Different sources of energy

Environment

Supply

Economy

Energy

P1.1 Non-renewable resources

The energy is initially an isolated energy potential and external action is required to initiate the supply of energy for non practical purposes.

On the other hand, renewable energy is the term used to cover

those energy flows that occur naturally and repeatedly in the environment and can be harnessed for human benefits. The ultimate sources of most of this energy are the sun, the gravity, and the earth’s rotation.

P1.2 Economic burden

It is expected that almost all the growth in energy production in coming years will take place in developing countries and transition economies. This represents a major challenge in terms of economical development for these countries as it becomes more and more expensive to sustain the energy infrastructure.

P1.3 Video

Different sources of energy

Total time: 06:09 Site name: Teachers’ domain; digital Media for the Classroom & Professional Development Title of the article on the site: “Energy Sources” Accessed: 6 September, 2008

P1.3.1 Energy Sources

Important note: This external site is recommended to learn more about the topic/phenomena under investigation. By clicking on the continue button the user will be directed to an external website. The CompEdu developers and platform are not responsible for the content of the external internet sites suggested. There is also no guarantee that the site is still valid.

http://www.teachersdomain.org/asset/phy03_vid_energysource/ Acknowledgements

Author 1: Ehsan Bitaraf Haghighi, KTH, 2009 Author 2: Béatrice Dibon, KTH, 2008 Author 3: Marianne Salomon, KTH, 2006-2009 Supervisor: Marianne Salomon, KTH, 2006-2009

P1.4 Literature

Godfrey Boyle, 2004; ”Renewable Energy: Power for a Sustainable Future” Oxford University Press, ISBN 0-19-926178-4

BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2008 http://www.bp.com/ Accessed: 9 July, 2008

The AR4 Synthesis Report http://www.ipcc.ch/ Accessed: 9 July, 2008

World Energy Council, 2004;

“2004 survey of energy resources” Elsevier, ISBN: 0-08-044410-5 http://www.worldenergy.org/documents/ser2004.pdf Accessed: 20 July, 2008

Energy [r]evolution, January 2007

EREC and Greenpeace http://www.energyblueprint.info/home.0.html Accessed: 20 July, 2008, modified

Renewables 2007, Global Status Report, 2007

Sustainable Energy Finance Institute http://sefi.unep.org/fileadmin/media/sefi/docs/industry_reports/RE2007_Global_Status_Report.pdf Accessed: 20 July, 2008, modified

P1.5 Prerequisites

Basic knowledge about physics, heat transfer and thermodynamics.

P1.6 LU and TU

Learning Units: 2 Teaching Units: 4

Explanation: Learning Units (LU) correspond to estimated number of hours for self-learning. Teaching Units (TU) correspond to estimated number of hours for a teacher to present the material. 1 unit = 45 minutes full time study time that student expect to spend on learning.

S.2 Educational Objectives

After reading this chapter, the student should be able to: Know the definition of renewable energy sources and the

concept of sustainability. Have a notion of the current global energy consumption patterns

and the problems related to the use of fossil fuels. Have a notion of the flow of energy sources worldwide Identify the different energy sources, their current utilization in

the world and their potential/limitations. Recognize the effects that current energy systems based on

fossil fuels have over the environment and the society

S.3 World total primary energy supply

2004 fuel shares of world Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES*)

(Source) * TPES is calculated using the IEA conventions (physical energy content methodology). It includes international marine bunkers and excludes electricity/heat trade. The figures include both commercial and non-commercial energy. ** Geothermal, solar, wind, tide/wave/ocean. Totals in graph might not add up due to rounding.

Most of the renewable energy supplied comes from large hydro, traditional biomass and agricultural waste in developing countries. These 2 sources can lead to considerable local environmental problems and the potential for sustainable expansion is limited.

Regional shares in renewable energy supplies are different. Biomass is a more widely available resource. Land use and

climatic constraints make differences in the scale of the potential of this resource and its application.

The change into the present intensity of fuel use and dependence on fossil fuels are a part of the industrial revolution.

P3.1 Local environmental problems

For the different phases in the life cycle of a hydropower plant construction, operation, and dismantling considerable problems can have important impacts on environment.

The main environmental concerns with regard to biomass/biofuel are: land, water

P3.1.1 Construction

Irreversible environmental impact, local pollution, modification of primary watersheds, destruction of habitants, resettlement of local inhabitants, loss of cultural/historical property, pressure on natural resource, often unpredictable effect.

P3.1.2 Operation

Risk of seismic activity, risk of dam failure, changes in river flow regime, deterioration of water quality, loss of freshwater due to sedimentation, fish kills, no local beneficial, changes in local climate, disturbance to river transport, possible emission of methane (due to flora).

P3.1.3 Dismantling

Local landscape (never to initial state), risk of inundation, change of environmental condition, disposal of the parts.

P3.1.4 Land

Land use conflict, deforestation, desertification (less retention of water, evaporation increase), erosion, visual impact, reduction biological diversity, input of energy (fertilizer, processes).

P3.1.5 Water

Scarce, improper irrigation (salinity), pollution (fertilizers), water for biogas production and distillery (N2, phosphorous, potassium and cause plant growth)

P3.2 Regional shares

the

Notice that “other” category (also referred to as “new” renewable) includes geothermal, solar, wind, etc.

(Source)

P3.3 The industrial revolution

The Watt steam engine launched the industrial revolution in the late 18th century.

Coal and coke were used for steam engines. Coal mining which provided fuel, the casting and smelting of iron which provided materials, and steam engines which provided transport, reinforced each other to feed industrialization. The environmental effects were ignored at this stage.

The late 19th and early 20th saw the development of electricity and the internal combustion engine, oil and gas, together with the development of a chemical industry using oil as feedstock. Availability of cheap fuels and sophisticated materials and transport spread industrialization. Inefficient use and environmental effects continued to be ignored.

In the late 20th, manufacturing continued to increase but services (communications and information processing) were the dominant activities. Environmental awareness started in the 1960’s and oil crisis happened in the 1970’s.

Major reductions in fuel use are now seen as technically possible.

P3.3.1 Watt steam engine

Source: Wikipedia

P3.3.2 Oil crisis

It began on October 17, 1973 when the OPEC members decided not to export oil to the countries that supported Israel in the Yom Kippur/Ramadan conflict between Israel, Syria, and Egypt.

P3.3.3 Technically

There are many possibilities to use less fuel nowadays. For example, for cars (without any change) the efficiency can be increased by:

o Use fuel efficient driving tips for cars o Regular maintenance o Tire inflation o Right size car

S.4 World primary energy demand by fuel

About 80% of the primary energy comes from fossil fuels as the following graphs shows. These graphs also show the forecasted dependency on fossil fuels for the year 2030 (based on the Reference Scenario).

World primary energy demand by fuel in the Reference Scenario

(Source)

It has been forecasted by the International Energy Agency (IEA) that the energy demand will expand by 45% between 2007 and 2030 (average increase of 1.6% per year). Coal will be a key supplier to cover this increase with an expected contribution of 1/3 of the overall rise.

P4.1 Primary energy

Primary energy, which includes both renewable and nonrenewable energies, is the energy without any conversion or transformation process.

P4.2 The Reference Scenario

The Reference Scenario based on the fact that government policies of a specific year (for example 2004) will remain unchanged during the forecasted period.

S.5 Primary energy consumption

There is a direct link between economic and human development and energy. However the relationship is very complex and in the future it might change due to the introduction of energy efficiency measures.

The magnitude of the energy problem that may face future generations can be illustrated by a simple calculation. The population of the world in 1990 was approximately 5 billion people. The best United Nation’s estimates of population trends show that it will continue to increase to around 8 billion by 2025, but stabilizing towards the end of the next century at somewhere between 10 and 12 billion people. Most of that increase will be in the less developed countries (LDCs).

Fuels are used at an average rate in the developed countries which is more than six times that in the LDCs. The present situation shows that the developed countries use nearly twice as

much fuel as the LDCs, even though they have less than a third of their population.

Primary energy consumption per capita (Source)

Now suppose that by 2025 the developed nations succeed in doubling the efficiency of their energy use, which is technically possible, so that their energy use per person is halved. Let us also suppose that the LDCs’ energy use per person doubles, as living standards improve. In other words, there is a move towards convergence in the energy use per person in the two parts of the world. Given the expected population increase, there is still a rise of 50% in the overall level of global energy use, leading to many consequences.

P5.1 Relationship

Practically the level of human development has strong link to: o Absolute amount of energy per capita. o Modern energy sharing services especially electricity.

The HDI (Human Development Index) can increase quite dramatically by surging electricity consumption per capita especially in poor countries.

HDI (Human Development Index) and primary energy demand

per capita in 2002 (source)

P5.1.1 Poor countries

HDI (Human Development Index) and electricity consumption

per capita in 2005

P5.2 Very complex

In 2004, the IEA introduced the Energy Development Index (EDI) in order to understand the role of energy in human development.

EDI is composed of three main sections: o Per capita commercial energy consumption o Share of commercial energy in total final energy use o Share of population with access to electricity

Sub-Saharan African countries have the lowest EDI in the world.

The link between EDI and HDI is nonlinear. Only a few developing countries will have reached by 2030

the stage of energy development that OECD countries had 30 years ago.

If policies remain unchanged by 2030 there will still be 1.4 billion people without electricity.

P5.2.1 Lowest EDI

EDI in some selected countries based on the data in 2002

(Source)

P5.2.2 Nonlinear

EDI and HDI in some selected countries based on the data in

2002 (Source)

P5.2.3 Only a few developing countries

EDI in 2002, 2025 and 2030 in some selected regions (Source)

P5.2.4 Without electricity

Shortage of electricity in future based on today’s data

extrapolation (Source)

P5.3 Twice

The biggest consumers of fossil fuels are the US, China, and EU which they all altogether represent half of all the global consumption.

(Source)

P5.4 Consequences

Global warming: the increase in the average measured temperature of the Earth's near-surface air and oceans is global

warming. Increasing the amount of carbon dioxide and the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere would lead to an increase of the global average air temperature of 0.3°C/decade according to some forecasts.

Acid rain Oil pollution of the seas Radioactive wastes and nuclear decommissioning

global warming

P5.4.1 Video

Greenhouse gases and society

Total time: 03:04 Watch from a third party website: Site name: YouTube Title of the article on the site: “Global Warming 101” Accessed: Accessed: 9 July, 2008

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oJAbATJCugs

S.6 Electricity use

Earth at night of 27 November 2000 (source)

In this picture is clearly shown the energy consumption pattern of industrialized and developing countries. The east coast of North America, Europe and some parts of east Asia show a higher illumination than Africa and other developing regions clearly highlighting the differences.

S.7 Limitations of the current energy system

Our current energy system is based on fossil and nuclear fuels. The major challenges associated with the use of these energy resources in a long term perspective are:

the limited non-renewable resources

the increase in the security of energy supply for a country/region

the increase in the world energy consumption

Climate change and other environmental issues

P7.1 Limited non-renewable resources

There are three main non-renewable resources: oil, natural gas, and coal. The amount of fossil fuel available for exploitation is estimated in proved reserves (PR) and reserves-to-production (R/P) ratio:

o Oil PR, oil R/P o Natural gas PR, natural gas R/P o Coal PR, coal R/P

The identification of the first 15 countries with the highest oil resources, the first 15 countries with the highest natural gas resources, and the first 15 courtiers with the highest coal production can be interesting and instructive to know the energy flows around the globe.

Nobody knows or can know how much oil exists under the earth's surface or how much it will be possible to produce in the future: estimated numbers are given in the form of reserves.

Engineers can now take 3D or even 4D seismic images to stretch existing reserves and aid in finding new ones.

Obviously the future developments of oil fields depend on the continuing demand for oil, but there is a number of newly developing fields around the world – such as Azerbaijan, Russia and Angola.

Unfortunately, coal has disadvantages compared to oil and gas. Coal burning creates more pollutants per unit of energy released than it is the case with gas and oil.

P7.1.1 More pollutants

Air Pollutant Emissions by Fuel Type (Source)

HC is hydrocarbon in this diagram

P7.1.2 Proved reserves (PR)

Proved reserve is a reserve with reasonable certainty that can be used by present technologies.

Technology has improved very much over the last 10 to 15 years, so reserves increased.

The following image shows the difference between resources, reserves, and proven reserves.

Ultimately recoverable resource (URR) is an estimate of the total amount of oil that will ever be recovered and produced. It is a subjective estimate in the face of only partial information.

P7.1.3 Reserves-to-production (R/P) ratio

The Reserves-to-production (R/P) ratio are the reserves remaining at the end of a year divided by the production in that year

R/P shows the length in time of lasting remaining reserves by keeping the rate of production the same as now.

P7.1.4 Oil PR

P7.1.5 Oil R/P

P7.1.6 Natural gas PR

P7.1.7 Natural gas R/P

P7.1.8 Coal PR

P7.1.9 Coal R/P

P7.1.10 The first 15 countries with the highest oil resources

P7.1.11 The first 15 countries with the highest natural gas resources

P7.1.12 The first 15 courtiers with the highest coal production

P7.1.13 3D or even 4D seismic

Seismic technology is used to predict and notice life of the field.

Time lapse 3D, or 4D, seismic technologies are a serious of 3D maps of seismic surveys during productive life of a reservoir.

P7.2 The security of energy supply

The price of oil and the price of gas have been increased considerably during the last couple of years.

Major oil trade movement and major gas trade movement originate from the Middle East that is currently one of the most disordered regions which recently witness of a couple of wars.

Possible vulnerabilities in terms of energy supply are: dependence on the resource in question, supply and demand problems, vulnerability and exposure of supply, variety of sources of disruption.

P7.2.1 Price of oil

P7.2.2 Price of gas

Price of natural gas imports

P7.2.3 Major oil trade movement

P7.2.4 Major gas trade movement

P7.2.5 Middle East

Includes the Arabian Peninsula, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria.

P7.3 Growth in energy production

Increase in world energy production and consumption

(source)

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is comprised of certain members

P7.3.1 Members

1960´s: Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, USA.

1970´s: Australia, New Zealand 1990´s: Czech Republic, Hungary, Korea, Mexico, Poland 2000´s: Slovak Republic.

S.8 Sustainability

Definition: “Meeting the needs of the present generation without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs." Brundtland Commission – 1987.

The world has finite resources and a finite capacity to absorb the ecological burdens that humans may put on the environment which is contrary to the general believe few decades ago.

Sustainability includes energy, environment, society and economy as key aspects in the world’s development.

Per year, humans consume more fossil fuels than nature produces in one million years.

Concerns rose from the exponential growth of human population and the effects of this growth on the environment.

P8.1 The effects of this growth on the environment

Historically, humans have made a significant environmental impact in their interaction with the natural world, causing damage to the environment in two primary ways: by over-consuming resources and by destroying their environment through pollution.

Some of the effects of humans on the environment are: o The ozone layer depletion: this layer in the stratosphere

protects the earth by absorbing most part (95-99%) of the sun’s ultraviolet radiation.

Ozone depletion layer is measured using the Dobson Unit (DU).

Every full day a global image of ozone layer is recorded by NASA and through which the situation in South Pole is monitored very closely due to its importance worldwide.

o Higher greenhouse gases (GHGs) concentration that enhance greenhouse effect, global warming and other climate-derived changes

Different greenhouse gases have different effect on environment.

o Acid rain o Unsafe drinking water o Hazardous/solid waste disposal o Loss of plant and animal species o Human health and well-being

Environmental impacts in EU Environmental protection Future prediction of the effects:

o GHG emissions and global surface warming o World map surface temperature change for the late 21st

century o Sea level rise

It is possible to compare the global average temperature from 1884 to 2006 in a video prepared by NASA.

o Five-Year Average Global Temperature Anomalies from 1880 to 2006

o Effects of global warming

P8.1.1 Video

Five-Year Average Global Temperature Anomalies from 1880 to 2006

Total time: 00:32 Watch from a third party website: Site name: NACA, Scientific Visualization Studio Title of the article on the site: “Five-Year Average Global Temperature Anomalies from 1880 to 2006” Accessed: 14 November, 2008

P8.1.2 Five-Year Average Global Temperature Anomalies from 1880 to 2006

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http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a003300/a003375/temp_anom_w_date_320x240.m1v

P8.1.3 Video

Effects of global warming

Total time: 02:08 Watch from a third party website: Site name: National Geographic Title of the article on the site: “Global Warming 101” Accessed: 14 November, 2008

P8.2 Global Warming 101

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http://video.nationalgeographic.com/video/player/environment/global-warming-environment/global-warming-101.html

P8.2.1 Dobson Unit (DU)

The figure shows an example of definition of the Dobson unit:

Assume a column of air, 10 deg x 5 deg, over Labrador, Canada. The amount of ozone in this column (i.e. covering the 10 x 5 deg area) is conveniently measured in Dobson Units.

Dobson unit was suggested by G.M.B. Dobson who used the Dobson spectrometer that from the ground measured the intensity of solar UV radiation of four wavelength, two of them absorbed by ozone and the other two not.

P8.2.2 Full day global image

The image on the right depicts an example of total ozone for a day (Dec 30, 2005 in this case) in Dobson Units.

EP/TOMS stands for Earth Probe/ Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer that is currently the only NASA spacecraft on orbit specializing in ozone retrieval launched on July 2, 1996.

A full day global image of ozone layer

P8.2.3 South Pole

Monthly average DU for October, from 1980 to 1991

P8.2.4 Greenhouse gases (GHGs)

The main greenhouse gases are: water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, ozone, and CFCs (chlorofluorocarbons). A complete list of GHG is available at the IPCCC site (http://www.ipcc.ch/index.htm)

Global GHG emissions due to human activities have increased 70% between 1970 and 2004

(a) Global annual emissions of anthropogenic GHGs from 1970 to 2004 (b) Share of different anthropogenic GHGs in total emissions in 2004 in terms of carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2-eq) (c) Share of different sectors in total anthropogenic GHG emissions in 2004 in terms of CO2-eq. (Forestry includes deforestation.)

P8.2.5 Different effect

The following table shows the contributions of the major GHGs to the overall greenhouse effect.

Major Greenhouse Gas % of Greenhouse Effect Water vapor 36% to 66% Water vapor & Cloud droplets 66% to 85% Carbon dioxide 9% to 26% Methane 4% to 9% Ozone 3% to 7%

P8.2.6 Greenhouse effect

Carbon dioxide is responsible for over 60% of the "enhanced greenhouse effect".

Humans are burning coal, oil, and natural gas at a rate that is much faster than the speed at which these fossil fuels were created. This is releasing the carbon stored in the fuels into the atmosphere and upsetting the carbon cycle, the millennia-old, precisely balanced system by which carbon is exchanged between the air, the oceans, and land vegetation.

Currently, atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide are rising

The greenhouse effect

by over 10% every 20 years. Climate change is now

inevitable because of past and current emissions. The climate does not respond immediately to external changes, but after 150 years of industrialization, global warming has momentum, and it will continue to affect the earth's natural systems for hundreds of years, even if greenhouse gas emissions are reduced and atmospheric levels stop rising.

P8.2.7 Global warming

Increased average Earth temperature is called global warming.

Global and continental temperature change

P8.2.8 Other climate-derived changes

Increased global average surface temperature, global average sea level, and Northern Hemisphere snow cover are the three important characteristics which are measured to investigate climate changes.

P8.2.9 Acid rain

Acid rain is a mixture of wet and dry deposition that has an unusually acidic behavior.

Coal burning is one of the most important contributors to this effect

Acid rain formation

P8.2.10 Environmental impacts in EU

In addition to those mentioned before, a broad range of current and future impacts of climate change in Europe are highlighted in the report of the European Environmental Agency (Aug. 2004), including the following points:

Almost two out of every three catastrophic events since 1980 have been directly attributable to floods, storms, droughts or heat waves. The average number of such weather and climate-related disasters per year doubled over the 1990s compared with the previous decade. Economic losses from such events have more than doubled over the past 20 years to around 11 billion US$ annually. This is due to several reasons, including the greater frequency of such events but also socio-economic factors such as increased household wealth, more urbanization and more costly infrastructure in vulnerable areas.

The annual number of floods in Europe and the numbers of people affected by them are rising. Climate change is likely to increase the frequency of flooding, particularly of flash floods, which pose the greatest danger to people.

Climate change over the past three decades has caused decrease in populations of plant species in various parts of Europe, including mountain regions. Some plants are likely to become extinct as other factors, such as fragmentation of habitats, limit the ability of plant species to adapt to climate change.

Glaciers in eight of Europe's nine glacial regions are in retreat, and are at their lowest levels for 5,000 years.

Sea levels in Europe rose by 0.8-3.0 mm per year in the last century. The rate of increase is projected to be 2-4 times higher during this century.

Heat waves another consequence of climate change can put enormous adverse social, economic and environmental effects. One of the mast recent heat waves happened in 2003 in Europe and caused about 13 billion Euros losses for the whole continent.

P8.2.11 Environmental protection

Environmental protection has usually taken the form of end-of-pipe solutions that often required considerable money and natural resources, which affect industry profit.

Effective use of technology can greatly affect the impact per capita on the environment; thus, engineers have a significant role to play in reducing environmental impact, by preventing non-sustainable damage before it occurs, rather than trying to mitigate it.

Sustainable development also shifts attention to pre-production design and to the consumption of resources and disposal of used materials. Waste treatment is replaced by pollution prevention, with specific goals, such as the reduction or elimination of hazardous materials.

P8.2.12 GHG emissions and global surface warming

Basis for the scenarios

P8.2.13 Basis for the scenarios

The future prediction is based on the projection of parameters from former years to coming years, and there are different scenarios and models present for this.

Four scenario families (A1, A2, B1 and B2) that are nominated SRES scenarios basically use for future prediction. SRES refers to the scenarios described in the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES, 2000) accessed from this website: http://www.ipcc.ch/.

The A1 storyline assumes a world of very rapid economic growth, a global population that peaks in mid-century and rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. A1 is divided into three groups that describe alternative directions of technological change:

o Fossil intensive (A1FI), non-fossil energy resources (A1T) and a balance across all sources (A1B).

B1 describes a convergent world, with the same global population as A1, but with more rapid changes in economic structures toward a service and information economy.

B2 describes a world with intermediate population and economic growth, emphasizing local solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability.

A2 describes a very heterogeneous world with high population growth, slow economic development and slow technological change.

P8.2.14 World map surface temperature change for the late 21st century

P8.2.15 Sea level rise

Basis for the scenarios

S.9 Kyoto Protocol

The Protocol was drawn up in Kyoto, Japan in 1997 to implement the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change (UNFCC). The protocol came into force on 16th February 2005 after Russia ratified the protocol in November 2004.

Industrialized nations who sign up to the treaty are legally bound to reduce worldwide emissions of six greenhouse gases (collectively) by an average of 5.2% below their 1990 levels by the period 2008-2012:

Carbon dioxide (CO2) Methane (CH4) Nitrous oxide (N2O) Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6).

The Kyoto protocol put some emission targets for countries worldwide.

Some mechanisms suggested achieving the Kyoto protocol:

Greenhouse-Gas Emission Trading

Joint Implementation Clean development

mechanism

UNFCC Emissions Data Source

The Kyoto protocol expires in 2012 and a new agreement is needed if a major climatic change would like to be avoided.

P9.1 Ratified

For the protocol to come fully into force, the pact needed to be ratified by countries accounting for at least 55% of 1990 carbon dioxide emissions. With countries like the US and Australia unwilling to join the pact, the key to ratification came when Russia, which accounted for 17% of 1990 emissions, signed up to the agreement on 5th November 2004.

The final ratified agreement means Kyoto will receive support from participating countries that emit 61.6% of carbon dioxide emissions.

The protocol is officially the first global legally binding contract to reduce greenhouse gases.

The Protocol has taken seven years to come into force because many countries felt that it did not highlight the all-important rules of how the nations would operate. 180 nations agreed on a scaled down version of the treaty in 2001. Many were reluctant to ratify until having a better understanding of the treaty. 141 parties have now ratified the agreement.

P9.2 UNFCC Emissions Data

P9.3 Emission targets for countries

Countries included in Annex B to the Kyoto Protocol and their emissions targets:

Country Target (1990** - 2008/2012)

EU-15*, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia,Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Monaco, Romania,Slovakia,Slovenia, Switzerland

-8%

US*** -7% Canada, Hungary, Japan, Poland -6% Croatia -5%

New Zealand, Russian Federation, Ukraine 0 Norway +1% Australia +8% Iceland +10% * The 15 States who were EU members in 1990 will redistribute their targets among themselves, taking advantage of a scheme under the Protocol known as a “bubble”, whereby countries have different individual targets, but which combined make an overall target for that group of countries. The EU has already reached agreement on how its targets will be redistributed. ** Some EITs have a baseline other than 1990. *** The US has indicated its intention not to ratify the Kyoto Protocol. Note: Although they are listed in the Convention’s Annex I, Belarus and Turkey are not included in the Protocol’s Annex B as they were not Parties to the Convention when the Protocol was adopted.

P9.4 Greenhouse-Gas Emission Trading

Emission trading (or cap and trade) is a clever strategy to control emission by put a tight connection between emission levels and economy.

Government sets a limit (cap) on the amount of a pollutant, and government forces companies with higher level of emission of that pollutant to pay into companies with lower level of it.

CO2 emission trading scheme in Europe was started since the beginning 2005 and is the biggest emission trading system worldwide.

Traded volumes EUA per month and price of EU allowance (EUA) can be shown in some graphs for Europe CO2 emission trading system.

P9.4.1 CO2 emission trading scheme in Europe

The European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) is the largest multi-national, greenhouse gas emissions trading scheme in the world.

The scheme, in which all 25 member states of the European Union participate, commenced operation on 1 January 2005.

In the first trading period, from 2005 to 2007 CO2 emission was considered and in the second period, from 2008 to 2012 nitrous oxide emissions are also being included.

In its first year, 362 million tonnes of CO2 were traded on the market for a sum of €7.2 billion.

The so-called Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) enables companies exceeding individual CO2 emissions targets to buy allowances from 'greener' ones.

Investments in cleaner technologies can then be turned into profits while helping the EU meet its Kyoto commitments on climate change.

This unique system has earned the EU the reputation of global leader in fighting climate change but has come under fire from some business circles, who criticize the EU for "going it alone" on the international scene and hampering industry's competitiveness.

Under the scheme, each participating country proposes a National Allocation Plan (NAP) including caps on greenhouse gas emissions for power plants and other large point sources.

P9.4.2 Traded volumes EUA per month

Each EUA or allowance represents the right to emit one ton of carbon dioxide (CO2).

P9.4.3 Price of EU allowance (EUA)

The price of allowances increased more or less steadily to its peak level in April 2006 of ca. €30 per tonne CO2, but came crashing down in May 2006 to under €10/ton when it became clear that many countries had given their industries such generous emission caps that there was no need for them to reduce emissions.

P9.5 Joint implementation

Under joint implementation, an Annex I Party may implement a project that reduces emissions (e.g. an energy efficiency scheme) or increases removals by sinks (e.g. a reforestation project) in the territory of another Annex I Party, and count the resulting emission reduction units (ERUs) against its own target.

While the term “joint implementation” does not appear in Article 6 of the Protocol where this mechanism is defined, it is often used as convenient shorthand. In practice, joint implementation projects are most likely to take place in EITs, where they tend to be more scope for cutting emissions at low cost.

An Article 6 supervisory committee will be set up by the COP/MOP when it meets for the first time. This committee will oversee a verification procedure for joint implementation projects hosted by Parties that do not meet all the eligibility

requirements related to the Protocol’s methodological and reporting obligations.

P9.6 Clean development mechanisms

Under the clean development mechanism (CDM), Annex I Parties may implement projects in non-Annex I Parties that reduce emissions and use the resulting certified emission reductions (CERs) to help meet their own targets. The CDM also aims to help non-Annex I Parties achieve sustainable development and contribute to the ultimate objective of the Convention.

The rulebook for the CDM set forth in the Marrakesh Accords focuses on projects that reduce emissions. Rules are being developed, however, for adoption at COP 9 in 2003, for including afforestation and reforestation activities in the CDM for the first commitment period. These rules include a limit on the extent to which Annex I Parties may use CERs from such sink projects towards their targets.

S.10 Potential and forecasts

Prediction can be achieved by projecting the present energy outlook sometimes called reference scenario, or by make convene all human power to obey [r]evolution scenario.

Global energy demand and global electricity production in future is dependent on population development.

Global primary energy consumption template will

World Primary Energy Demand Forecast (Source)

be increased in future considerably.

Cost of energy as a whole is different in future energy world in comparison to present situation.

CO2 emissions reduced based on the different scenarios.

It is possible to approach a higher share of renewable energy in human’s consumption by a number of global incorporation and policies such as Kyoto Protocol.

P10.1 World Primary Energy Demand Forecast

(Source)

P10.2 [r]evolution scenario

This scenario has come in a report that prepared by the two following organization:

• Greenpeace International Ottho Heldringstraat 5 1066 AZ Amsterdam www.greenpeace.org

• REC European Renewable Energy Council Renewable Energy House 63-65, rue d'Arlon B-1040 Brussels www.erec.org

Its targets are: o Reduce worldwide emissions by 50% below the 1990

levels by 2050. o Reduce CO2 emission to less than 1.3 tons per year. o Phasing out (if it will be possible) nuclear energy as

much as possible. The targets can be achieved by: increasing the efficiency in

current energy systems and using renewable energy resources as much as possible.

P10.3 Global energy demand

(Source)

Primary energy consumption per capita by Region in 2030

according to IEA statistics can be considered.

P10.3.1 Primary energy consumption per capita by Region in 2030

P10.4 Global electricity production

Other renewables includes wind, solar, geothermal, tidal and

wave There are six different scenarios with their own assumptions.

P10.4.1 Six different scenarios with their own assumptions

CCS is an abbreviation for carbon capturing and storage,

which is a method to accumulate carbon exhausting from big scale power generation cycles underneath especially under water.

P10.5 Population development

P10.6 Global primary energy consumption

There are a number of forecasts regarding to renewable

energy resources share in future.

P10.6.1 Renewable energy resources share in future

The following numbers are a forecast of the share of renewable energy sources worldwide:

• World Energy Council: Western Europe by 2020 = 15-20%

• United Nations: Western Europe by 2050 = 61% • Shell: World Forecast by 2060 >50% • Madrid Conference: European Union by 2010 = 15%

It is expected that hydro will be the fastest growing renewable supply in developing countries.

Commercial biomass, wind, solar and other non-hydropower renewables are expected to be the fastest growing primary energy source in OECD countries.

Most of the growth is expected to come from wind and bioenergy, supported by policies and measures to curb greenhouse-gas emissions and to diversify the energy mix.

Despite this strong growth, the share of non-hydro renewable energy in the global energy mix will reach about 3% by 2020 because of the current low starting point.

P10.7 Cost of energy

P10.8 CO2 emissions reduced

S.11 Summary

The energy demand is expected to increase by 45% between 2007 and 2030 (1.6% per year increase in average). Most of the increase will occur in developing countries and transition economies

Fossil fuels are supply more than 80% of the world energy needs.

Human-induced climate is currently being addressed worldwide through the Kyoto Protocol and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. However, further measures are required specially after 2012.

Political decisions, both in a national and international level have a large influence over the use of renewable energies.

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