Ryne P. RaffaelleNational Center for PhotovoltaicsNational Renewable Energy Lab

NY Solar Industries 2010Albany, NY

May 12-13, 2010

NREL Photovoltaic Science and Technology

PV Opportunities in the U.S.• The US has the largest solar resource of any industrialized

country in the world.

• Developing the technology and industrial base to harness this resource is the key to the transformation “green economy” and the US economic recovery.

PV Industry Roadmap – US DOE

3 TW

Solar Energy Potential

Source: Nathan S. Lewis, California Institute of Technology

Average insolation kWh/m2/day

Global Solar Energy Resource

6 Boxes at 3.3 TW Each

Theoretical: 120,000 TW Energy in 1 hour of sunlight 14 TWPractical: ≈ 600 TW

Worldwide Solar Energy

Source: Nathan S. Lewis, California Institute of Technology

Solar Energy Potential

NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy operated by Midwest Research Institute • Battelle

In October 2008, the Alliance for Sustainable Energywas awarded the contract to manage NREL

National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy FutureNational Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

National Renewable Energy Lab

What makes NREL unique?• Only national laboratory dedicated to renewable energy

and energy efficiency R&D• Collaboration with industry and university partners is a

hallmark• Ability to link scientific discovery and product

development to accelerate commercialization

National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

NREL’s R & D Portfolio

Efficient Energy Use• Vehicle

Technologies• Building

Technologies• Industrial

Technologies

Energy Delivery and Storage

• Electricity Transmission and Distribution

• Alternative Fuels • Hydrogen Delivery

and Storage

Renewable Resources• Wind and water• Solar• Biomass• Geothermal

National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy FutureNational Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

Unprecedented Growth

200935% Growth Total Campus25% NREL Staff (> 400 new hires)111 Current Open Positions

National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy FutureNational Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

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NREL just broke 2000 employee barrier in April!

Photovoltaic Timeline

• 1839 – photovoltaic effect discovered• 1883 – first solar cell created• 1946 - modern pn junction solar cell demonstrated• 1954 – doped silicon first used in solar cells• 1958 - first spacecraft to use solar panels • 1970 – GaAs solar cells created• 1989 – first dual junction cell created• 1993 - first dual junction cells for spacecraft• 1995 – 30% efficiency barrier broken• 2004 – terrestrial solar cell production exceeds 1 GW• 2009 – 40% efficiency barrier broken

• Solar Energy Research Institute (1974)

• Begins operation in (1977)

• Reagan cuts budget by 90%

• SERI becomes National Lab (1991)

• National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL

• National Center for Photovoltaics (NCPV) established in 1996

Research in the NCPV: Past

NCPV

NCPV Charter

The National Center for Photovoltaics (NCPV) focuses on innovations in PV technology that drive industry growth in U.S. photovoltaic manufacturing.

The NCPV is directed to use the resources and capabilities of the national labs and universities for the benefit of the U.S. PV industry.

The NCPV was created to enhance communication, catalyze strategic partnerships, and serve the PV industry a the place to come to access the wealth of knowledge and facilities within the DOE system.

The NCPV charge is to accelerate PV as a viable energy option in the U.S.

World Record PV Efficiencies

NREL

NREL

NREL

NREL

NREL

NREL

NREL

NREL

NREL Technology Breakthroughs

Science & Technology Facility

Outdoor Test Facility

Solar Energy Research Facility

Process Development and Integration Lab

PV Facilities at NREL

Photovoltaics (PV)

Concentrating Solar Power (CSP)

DOESolar Energy Technology

Program

Distributed Generation - on-site or near point of use

-

Centralized Generation

- large users or utilities -

System Integration

Market Transformation

DOE Solar Electricity Technology Program

20x-100x III-V MJs, 500x CdTe, CIGs, a-Si ~ 1-2 um

c-Si ~ 180 um

NCPV Technology Portfolio

Growth of Global PV Industry

US PV Market Share

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Global PV Deployment

http://www.energy.soton.ac.uk/solar/solar.html

Cost versus Production

Agenda Slide (Arial Narrow, 28 pt)

= Q3 2009 Price

= End-of-Year 2010 Price

Public data from SEC, analysts, etc.

PV Production Status

Navigant ‘08 Actual 5.4 GW ▲

PV News ‘08 Actual 6.9 GW ▲

* Goldman projection is for demand** Navigant projection is for accelerated case

Source: U.S. Dept. of Energy

Policy Driven Scenarios

PV Market Predictions

Source: Navigant Consulting

NCPV: Present

Crystalline Si

Poly X-tal Si

CdTe

a-Si

CIGS

Thin FilmsWafers

III-V

Concentrators

Low X

High X

Portable

Polymeric

Multijunction Solar Cells

load

Multi-junction solar cell

V1

V2

V3

• Creation of a fundamentally new technology path, the inverted lattice-mismatched (IMM) cell. This cell design resulted in the new 1 sun solar cell efficiency record (33.8%). Also, this technology allowed NREL to break the 40% AM1.5 photovoltaic conversion efficiency barrier under concentration! This technology shatters all records related to specific power (~3000 W/kg) (enabling for a host of PV spin-off applications, man portable energy scavenging, space power systems).

• Remarkably rapid transfer of the technology to industry. RF Micro Devices, Emcore, Spectrolab, Microlink.

• R&D 100 Award and the 2009 Federal Laboratory Consortium Award for Excellence in Technology Transfer.

Inverted Metamorphic Solar Cell

> 40% Efficient

Concentrating Photovoltaics

Thin Film PV

Ascent Solar

•Amorphous Si (aSi)•CdTe•Cu(In,Ga)Se2 (CIGS)

32

BIPV

Size Matters

Source: Nathan S. Lewis, California Institute of Technology

3.6 TW US Consumption

10% 20% 30% 40%

Efficiency

Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs – UN Bruntland Commission

NCPV Future: Making PV More SustainableEconomical• Raw materials usage• Abundant Materials• Manufacturability• Efficiency • Durability• Market Assessment

Environmentally Safe• Non-toxic alternatives• Aqueous based materials• Re-use, Reman, Recycle• Environmental Impact Assessment

Societal • Reliability• Building Integrated (BIPV)• Productization

Cost ($/W)

Performance

Reliability

Cost ($/W) Performance

ReliabilityResidential 8-10 ¢/kWhCommercial 6-8 ¢/kWhUtility 5-7 ¢/kWh

2015 Goals:

Cost ($/W)

Performance

Reliability

Efficiency $ / m2

$ /

Wp

$/Watt of Module Price vs Efficiency and $/m2 Costs

Cost CompetitiveTarget

DOE SETP Goals

Comparison of Production Costs for Conventional Silicon and CdTe Thin Film Modules

Silicon $2.10/W CdTe $1.10/W

Feedstock 23%Coated Glass 29%

Ingot 12%

Materials 3%

Wafer 14%Equipment 13%

Cell 24%

Operating 5%

Encapsulation 27%

Encapsulation 50%

Source: U.S. Dept. of Energy

U.S. Production Trends

Predicted PV Revenues

Energy and Si-intensive wafers

Add Carbon & Heat Energy

pureSiHCl

3

orSiH4

CO2

Sand metallurgicalgrade Si

Add Heat Energy

(1000 °C)

siliconfeedstock

Add more heat energy (1500°C)

Waste ~1/2in sawing

Use 10X more than needed • ~ 2 yr energy payback

• $0.60/W - $1.00/W for feedstock alone

41

Vision for Si wafer replacement

Add Carbon & Heat Energy

pureSiHCl3

orSiH4CO2

Sand metallurgicalgrade Si

Directly depositenough pure siliconfor light absorption

HWCVD is best low-T scalable technique

NREL Si Group: H. Branz, MRS 2009

• Metamorphic Growth• Inverted Metamorphic Growth• 4, 5, … Junction Devices• Dilute Nitride Devices• Poly III-V• Mechanical Stacking• Optical Spectrum Splitting• Concentrator Designs• QM Bandgap Engineering• IBSC

h from 30% to 40% and beyond?

Emcore

Next Generation PV

Process Development and Integration Laboratory (PDIL)

Tooling Standards

Integration of Deposition, Processing, and Characterization

Solar Market Standards

NREL T&E1366 Technologies3M AMONIX ADCOAdvent SolarApplied Materials Applied Optical SciencesBASFBP SolarBRP Manufacturing Dow ChemicalCaliSolarDupontFirst SolarGT SolarInfoscitexInnovalightKonarkaNanoSolarPrimeStarSolar Power Industries SolFocusSchott SolarSkyline SolarSpectrolab (Boeing)SunPowerTruSealUni-Solar

IncubatorNew Pre-IncubatorTechnology Pathway PartnershipsPV Supply ChainFuture Generation ProgramPV Manufacturing Initiative

Working with the NCPV

Pre-IncubatorBanyan EnergyCrystal SolarISETTiSolAscent Solar TechnologiesEPIR TechnologiesMicroLink Devices1366 TechnologiesLightwave PowerVanguard SolarSempriusSpectraWattLuna Innovations

IncubatorCalsiolarSol FocusMicroLink DevicesSoloPowerPrimestarAVA SolarPlextronicsInnovalightSpire SolarSolexel1366 TechnologiesSolastaSkyline

TPPsAmmonixSunpowerSoliantGeneral ElectricKonarkaNanosolarBP SolarGreenrayUnisolarDow Chemical

Ind. CRADAsPlextronicsSiXtronCorning/Varian

UniversitiesToledoDelawareFloridaArizona StateCal TechRITMITPenn StateGeorgia TechStanfordUC DavisCSMColoradoColorado StateIllinoisMichiganSouth FloridaWashington

Next GenWakondaVoxtelSolastaSolexantSoltaixVoxtel

National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Innovation for Our Energy Future

Operated for the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy

By the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC

Visit us online at www.nrel.gov

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